Daily Market Commentary

Comments: Dec. 31, 2003

63% money market, 17% Tempest, 20% Venture for Thursday.  The closing figures improved significantly in the closing few minutes of the year changing our short signal to fully  flat.  We are holding a partial short position reflecting the earlier sentiment.  We have higher upside probabilities, but stronger potential down-side amplitudes.  Best to stay out and let it resolve itself in one direction.  The S&P targets for Thursday are 1105 and 1117. For the Nasdaq 100 the closing targets are 1447 and 1479.  Have a safe evening and happy New Year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 30, 2003

Long: 17% Titan, 20% Velocity for Tuesday.  We micro-adjusted our position as the sentiment continues to be positive.  Nasdaq could show some weakness as very-small- negative-change days are usually followed by down days.   Wednesday is a full trading day but I expect to see reduced movement along with reduced volume.  No targets for Wednesday but you can look at the probabilities on the Forecast page.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 29, 2003

long: 10% Titan, 25% Velocity for Tuesday.  The markets look over extended on the charts, but there could be a bit more left in them, judging from the sentiment readings that we are getting.  We have taken an additional position in the Nasdaq which seems to have come back to life. The  dropping dollar will eventually put an end to this long rally as the rising cost of imported goods acts like inflation, to cut our buying power and causes prices in general to increase.  Both the S&P and Nasdaq out performed our Monday price targets.  For Tuesday we have 1102 and 1120 as closing targets on the S&P with 1453 and 1497 as the Targets on the Nasdaq 100.  It is very interesting that the Mad Cow scare did not cause a ripple.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 26, 2003

90% Money market, long 10% Titan 500 for Monday.  Friday's market moved very little.  I see very little upside potential left, and expect to see the Nasdaq 100 start to weaken again.   We chose to nibble at the S&P.  Closing targets on the S&P are 1090 to 1105, on the Nasdaq 1419 and 1465.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 24, 2003

Short.  20% Tempest, 10% Venture for Friday.  Another shortened day on Friday.  With the mad cow and terrorists threats there should be some money leaving the table and I expect a down day.  The Nasdaq looks most vulnerable. Have a happy holiday we will be back in on Friday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 23, 2003

100% Money Market for Wednesday.  Early market close on Wednesday and Friday.  Only the Nasdaq showed much spunk Tuesday.  Closing at a new high.  It did not surpass the previous inter-day high.  Very flat closing sentiment moved us fully into the money market. Tuesday we did close on  the forecast Nasdaq100 target close of 1448.  I am not giving targets because of the shortened day.  The T-Index however closed at -173 it has not moved very much over the past five months.  With the Nasdaq making new highs we can once again look for a blow off. 4%+ up day at some point.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 22, 2003

Short: 15% Venture, 10% Tempest, 75% money market for Tuesday.  Slightly negative sentiment for Tuesday, but more of an "out" day.  I don't see a firm trend.  The Dow put in its fifth day of new highs and should be ready for some time off.   Most markets moved very little on light volume.  S&P target closes for Tuesday are 1085 and 1100, for the Nasdaq 100 (which has yet to make a new high this run) we have 1407 and 1448.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 19, 2003

100% money market for Monday.  We like to place our transactions as close to the closing bell as possible.  Today we ran a little late and only had a minute left, which was not enough due to the high volume in Rydex's system.  So we stayed in the money market for Monday.  With today as the exception, I have been very pleased with the Rydex operation for over two years.  I do expect the markets to drop on Monday as we have strong negative probabilities.  S&P closing targets are 1076 and  1099 on the Nasdaq 100 we see 1396 and 1442.  Most  likely the markets will give up the rest of Thursday's gains on Monday.  We could very well be in for a 1987 type drop at some point  in the near future as the heavy margin buying in the Nasdaq stocks makes them ripe of a hard fast tumble. I would think there will be significant warning shots first.  You can read more in our recently posted long term forecast.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 18, 2003

100% money market for Friday.   Strong day pretty much in line with the probabilities and amplitudes we suggested yesterday.  The S&P over shot our target close and the Nasdaq 100 was shy.  Expect small movements on Friday as we consolidate the gains. Most likely up as the VIX increased along with the sharp up-move.  The Nasdaq 100 is still below its early November peak and may spend a few more days attempting to retry the high.  It appears that money is flowing into safer investments like the NYSE and Dow.  This is not unreasonable as markets become fully priced and investors become more selective.  Friday closing targets for the S&P are 1082 and 1095 for the Nasdaq 100 look for 1421 and 1444.  

You can read more in our recently posted long term forecast.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 17, 2003

100% money market for Thursday.   Going into the close the markets exhibited some unstable behavior as far as our forecasting program is concerned.  In response we have moved 100% into the money market.  The close itself looked promising and the probabilities still look good.  From a chart pattern point of view I like to look at the NYSE to get a broader picture. The daily chart just keeps going higher and the 60 minute chart looks like it broke out of a triangle.  Both good signs.  The Nasdaq 100 chart is not nearly as promising.  I do not mind waiting this one out for a day or so.  Our target closes for the S&P are 1073 and 1085 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1377 and 1439.  The continued decline in the dollar will keep foreign investors out of our equity markets till we show some economic stability.   You can read more in our recently posted long term forecast.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 16, 2003

Long, 25% Titan, 50% Velocity, 25% money market for Wednesday.  Once again we have increased our "long" position in line with the increasing probabilities for an up-move.  I am not looking for a large move, but the closing probabilities are positive and one-sided.  Our closing targets  for Wednesday in the S&P is 1072 and 1085. Targets for the Nasdaq 100 are 1381 and 1438.  I am expecting the Nasdaq to show some more of a  recovery Wednesday as it has been the weak index this last rebound.  The CPI had a big surprise as it fell 0.2% in November. The Core rate fell 0.1% this was the first decline in the core rate since 1982.  The 12 month reading is the lowest since 1996.  How do you spell deflation?  What is the T-Index saying?  I will repeat from our T-Index Comments. " We are in a deflationary environment.  This condition is more difficult to cure."    You can read more in our recently posted long term forecast.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 15, 2003

Long, 15% Titan, 40% Velocity, 45% money market for Tuesday.  I would think that the markets would do better with a Bin Laden capture.  Saddam was never a real threat, but Laden still is.  However any Iraq stability should save us some $ and lives from the big drain hole in the Middle East.  We got  a new high and a close on the low of the day, not a good sign.  I don't expect to see much carry through on the down side for Tuesday and have increased our position in the Nasdaq 100 (Rydex Velocity 100). The S&P hit our target high and closed a point above our target low.  Closing targets for Tuesday.  1059 and 1078  on the S&P and 1378 and 1424 on the Nasdaq 100. The Australian dollar reached a 6 year high relative to the US dollar today.  You can read more in our recently posted long term forecast.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 12, 2003

Long, 15% Titan, 15% Velocity, 70% money market. As we suggested, there were no large movements Friday.  Monday we are looking for greater movement and another attempt at new highs.  We took a small long position reflecting the probabilities and anticipated range.  The downside is still stronger on the Nasdaq100 and adds concern.  The Nasdaq market has many investors on margin and any downside will be magnified.  Our Nasdaq 100 target closes for Monday are 1388 and 1437.  For the S&P we have 1067 and 1082.  I plan to update the long-tern forecast this weekend.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 11, 2003

100% Money market for Friday.  Nice day for the upward bound.  I do not anticipate any large movements for Friday, up or down.  Probabilities are slightly positive, but there is potential for a larger pull back on the Nasdaq 100, than we see in the up-movement.  So we are in the money market.  The S&P tacked on a new recovery high, landing on our forecast target closing high from yesterday.  The Nasdaq 100 has been stuck in a topping formation for about two months and is about 2 1/2% from its top.  Our closing targets for Friday tag  the S&P at 1065 and 1077 the Nasdaq 100 at 1399 and 1427.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 10, 2003

Long, 25% Titan, 20% Velocity.  Little movement today.  I expect to see a shift in emphasis to the S&P and we increased our exposure in that direction while reducing exposure to the Nasdaq100.  Our T-Index which reflects the current state of the economy continues to be a dismal -175.  The Fed may no longer be talking deflation, but their actions indicate that deflation is still their main concern.  You may read and hear about low interest rates being the cause of the weak dollar.  That is not true. Countries in South America have almost always had very high interest rates along with inflationary conditions and weak currencies.  The weak dollar reflects a weak economy.  This is a subject that I will address in our next long term comment update.  For now we have closing targets of 1051 and 1071 for the S&P and 1370 and 1412 for the Nasdaq 100 for Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 9, 2003

Long, 40% Velocity, 10% Titan.  The Fed departed from its fear of deflation to a more neutral stance.  Our T-Index which measures inflationary and deflationary pressures remains negative at -175.  Close to record lows for many years and still in a deflationary mode.  The falling dollar, while helping exporters in our country, burdens the rest of the country with higher fuel prices and costs of imported goods, adding an inflation like burden to the economy.  It will eventually affect equities. As we suggested yesterday the market bounced off of Dow 10,000.   For tomorrow however we anticipate a good up day, perhaps a full recovery from today's drop which fell through our forecast targets.  From the charts 1066 on the S&P looks very good for a close.  Our program targets 1051 and 1075 as average expected moves.  For the Nasdaq 100 we look for 1366 and 1421.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 8, 2003

100% money market for Tuesday.   The Dow made a new high, the NYSE made a closing high, and the S&P is a touch away from the previous top.  We might see the same bounce off of DOW 10000 as we saw when the Nasdaq Comp hit 2000.  As for our signal it was flat with probabilities tilted up and potential amplitudes tilted down. No one is expecting much change out of the upcoming Fed meeting.  We are waiting for a clear signal to get back in, on either side.  S&P targets are 1062 and 1076, Nasdaq100 targets are 1401 and 1433.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 5, 2003

100% money market for Monday.   Probabilities favor the down side, but with less of a thrust (potential amplitude) than if the market rises, this leaves us with a balance and we stayed in the money market.  From a chartist point of view there hasn't been any damage. Our Nasdaq 100 long term technical indicator is also still positive.  T-Index (which measures the economy) is -167 (not good).  The target closes on the S&P for Monday are1053 and 1071. Targets for the Nasdaq 100 are 1387 and 1432.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 4, 2003

100% money market.  The market played on both sides of the track and closed near the highs of the day.  Our signal from all of this was flat, indicating we are rounding a top or at a plateau.  In any event there was not a clear way to go prior to the close so we moved into the money market.  After the close Intel took a big hit in the after-market announcing that they will take a six hundred million dollar write-off in the fourth quarter.  This should send the markets and Nasdaq in particular lower at the opening bell.   Our T-index is at  -174.  This really is not the kind of number we see during a robust economy.  We are however seeing more look-e-loo activity with regards to the capital equipment we sell in our engineering supply company.  That activity eventually leads to sales.  So from an observer's point of view business is showing more interest in buying, something that had been lacking over the past few years.  Productivity gains made during the same time frame will result in less employment at those companies that may be getting their sale back up to pre 2001 levels.  Therefore we should see earnings bounce back before the same sales levels are achieved.  Target closes for the S&P are 1063 and 1076, for the Nasdaq 100, 1414 and 1446.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 3, 2003

Short, 48% Venture, 25% Tempest for Thursday.   A late in the day push to dump stocks turned our gains into losses.  It didn't even take the large move I mentioned yesterday, only the moderate rise of the Nasdaq composite over the 2000 mark.  I would be more comfortable with a smaller short position for Thursday, but prior to the close these numbers looked good.  The probabilities are actually slightly positive for the S&P and only mildly negative for the NDX.  There doesn't seem to be much more up-side potential for the Nasdaq, but a blow off phase is always a possible end to a strong up swing.   Target closes for the S&P are 1054 and 1076.  1393 and 1437 are the targets for the Nasdaq 100.  The T-Index is at -173.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 2, 2003

Long, 30% Velocity, 25% Titan for Wednesday.  I expect a strong up day for Wednesday.   Tuesday the Nasdaq 100 was weak, while the S&P fell by only a small amount.  Pretty much in line with what was expected, see yesterdays forecast.  The Nasdaq 100 is now poised for a larger up-move and should make a new high, Wednesday, as it plays catch-up.  Too much of a good thing (like a 4% move) will be bad for the Nasdaq and would be considered a blow off, this would put an end to the rally.   Our Target closes for the Ndx are 1414 and 1461.  For the S&P we have 1058 and 1076.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Dec. 1, 2003

100% Money market for Tuesday.  Strong up day, but the Nasdaq 100 is not quite its usual self, gaining at less than its normal rate relative to the other indexes.  It looks like mostly new highs all around the indexes, except for the Dow, within about a point, and the Nasdaq a few points away.   We have some cross currents regarding Tuesday's action and have chosen to remain on the sidelines and in the money market.  One scenario would be for the markets to rise early with the Dow and Nasdaq indexes making token new highs then turning around to close lower.  With the probabilities for the S&P positive and Ndx negative the best thing to do is avoid the risk and wait.  Factory growth is very strong while the dollar is near record lows.  Our T-Index once again fell back -176.  Although I am happy to make money on the long side, like today, I don't think the upside will continue very much longer with the dollar falling, deficits climbing and the PE ratios at market top levels.  Target closes for Tuesday for the S&P are 1060 and 1078, for the Nasdaq 100, 1430 and 1464.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Nov. 28, 2003

Long, Titan 20%, Velocity 20%, 80% money market for Monday.  Easy day on Friday with an early close and little movement.  The dollar continues to fall as the T-index (now a miserable -169), reflects the relative condition of the US economy.  The NYSE on the other hand is making new highs and should drag the other indices along prior to a pull back.  I would expect more new highs (or attempts at new highs) in the rest of the indices early in the week, but will adjust that view on a daily basis.  Targets closes for the S&P for Monday are 1051 and 1069 for the Nasdaq 100 look for 1401 and 1453.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 26, 2003

Long, Velocity 20%, 80% money market for Friday.  Early close on Friday and with most of the players away do not expect much market movement.  Wednesday was up, down, up. The NYSE up/down ratio at two-to-one was much stronger that the % change in the Dow and S&P would lead you to believe.  At this point the market is still challenging its recent top of a few weeks ago and the NYSE is doing much better than the Nasdaq.  Our Nasdaq 100 longer term technical indicator is still positive and the T-Index continues to be well under water.  I would expect  to see a blow off in the Ndx prior to any large pull back.  Target closes for the S&P 1052 and 1064, for the Nasdaq100, 1409 and 1445. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  Happy Thanksgiving.

Comments: Nov. 25, 2003

Short,  25% Tempest, 50% Venture.  The markets had a dull day and sent negative signal to us all day long.  At the close the Nasdaq100 fell a few additional points and partially relieved some of the negative pressure.  I am still expecting to see some pull back on Wednesday, but not a large move.  Our target closes for the S&P 500 are 1045 and 1059.  For the Nasdaq 100 1396 and 1431.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 24, 2003

85% money market, long 15% Velocity.  Excellent day for us and the markets.  We are now expecting that most of the move is over and moved 85% into the money market with a 15% exposure in the Velocity fund which is equal to about a 30% position in the Nasdaq 100 since the Velocity is a 2x fund.  The expected closing targets for the S&P are 1045 and 1058.  For the Nasdaq 100 the targets are 1407 and 1436. The T-Index got more negative at -162.  This is typical historical pre-holiday trading but the large move may mean there is not much left for the next two days.  The markets will close early on Friday, the bond markets will close early on Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 21, 2003

Long, 50% Velocity, 10% Titan, 40% money market.  We reversed our positions on the close and moved long.  This week we lost some ground along with the rest of the indices.  The T-Index is stalled at -158 and  the markets have flattened without gain for the last two and a half months waiting for something to come along and provide direction.  Closing targets on the S&P are 1031 and 1044 on the Nasdaq 100 look for 1354 and 1404.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 20, 2003

Short, 50% Venture, 10% Tempest, 40% money market.  Terrorism is back in the minds of investors. The NDX  index dropped over 1% on the open then recovered  to go plus over 1% mid day only to fall back near its lows on the close.  This leaves the market vulnerable to a further declines on Friday. Terrorism and carrying stocks over weekends don't mix well. The S&P closed on our target low (see Nov. 19 comment).   We closed out our small long position and went significantly short as I expect we may see much more damage to the market this Friday.  Our target lows for the Nasdaq 100 show a 3% average  drop under similar conditions. 1322 is our target with 1386 the target close on the up side.  For the S&P I look for 1020 low and 1043 target closing high.   Our T-Index is at -156.  A look at the daily charts for The Nasdaq 100 show the index rising to touch its broken rising bottoms line, then go lower.  I see the next support at about the 1330 -1335 level.  I believe the market still has another good upside thrust left in it.  But we should go lower first.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 19, 2003

Long 15%, Velocity, 85% money market for Thursday.  Got the bounce back, but I was hoping for more.  We  reduced our exposure in accordance with our probabilities and expected amplitudes.  The closing targets for the S&P are 1033 and 1052.  We are looking for 1352 and 1402 on the Nasdaq 100.  Most upswings end in a blow-off of sorts with at least one very large up day.  The Nasdaq has not had a really strong day in quite a while.  The 4%+ day  was July 7th. Keep your eyes open for another +4% day which could mark the top of this long up-swing.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 18, 2003

Long, 50% Rydex Velocity, 15% Titan funds for Wednesday.  After an early rise the markets resumed their descent for the forth straight day.  The NYSE and S&P should find support here looking at the charts.  The NDX has fallen through support, but may recover to its climbing bottoms line.  That would bring it back to the 1390 area.  We  ended today less than a point below our S&P target, but the NDX was very weak and and overshot our target on the way down.  Our indicators gained strength, however, and we increased our position for Wednesday on the up side.  Our closing targets for Wednesday are 1025 and 1053 on the S&P.  We target 1343 and 1410 on the Nasdaq100.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 17, 2003

long, 40% Rydex Velocity fund for Tuesday.  Tuesday should bring a partial recovery in the indices.  The Nasdaq 100 should snap back over 1400.  Our target closes for the S&P are 1035 and 1053.  For the Nasdaq 100 we look to 1377 and 1420.  There was another slight improvement in the T-Index to -156.  If you haven't already downloaded the free T-Index software you should.  The Nasdaq is seeing a great deal of margin buying.  More now than at the height of the bull market just a few short years ago.  This is very dangerous folks.  If the SEC manages to implement a 2%+ charge on a short term sale of mutual fund shares there is going to be a lot of people doing a slow roast as shares fall.  Investors not wanting to get dinged for the 2%+,  may very well eat many times that figure in a decline.  Rydex and the other index fund companies most probably  will not be affected by any SEC ruling since most of the investors invest in these funds as a short term vehicle and that is how the fund is positioned. We saw a sizable jump in the VIX index today during the early stages of the drop.  Our long term Nasdaq 100 program is still signaling a long position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 14, 2003

100% money market for Monday.  During the last few market minutes the sentiment turned decidedly negative.  Since we must place our transactions five or more minutes prior to the close we did not get that signal in enough time to go short.  We have found, however, that the best signals usually do not change going into the close.  In any event I do not see Monday's market making up today's fall and more than likely will close down for the day.  If you re-read yesterday's comment you will see that we tested the earlier market highs as suggested, then succumbed to the "large adverse move" I was concerned about on the Nasdaq100 (-2.2%) landing within 1/2 point of our target close at 1408.  Closing targets for Monday on the S&P are 1038 and 1057, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1372 and 1439.  Our T-Index closed at -159.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 13, 2003

100% money market for Friday.  The probabilities favor the up side for Friday, but intelligent investing  involves more than the probability of going higher.  We must take into account the potential for large adverse moves and once again the Nasdaq 100 looks dangerous.  The NYSE made new highs today so a test of the recent highs in the other indices is very probable.  I don't expect to see any spectacular gains come out of it.   We finished off another good week and will watch on Friday rather than participate.  Our T-Index showed some mild improvement now at -161. Target closes for the S&P are 1054 and 1068, for the Nasdaq 100, 1408 and 1449.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 12, 2003

Short, 30% Tempest, 42% Venture for Thursday.  We might be sticking our neck out a bit on this call.  The Nasdaq 100 inched out a new closing high and the S&P came within 1/2 point of its high.  Our program triggered a strong sell signal for Thursday, early in the day and it held that way through to the close. I like it when the program is firm in its direction. The aftermarket, however, is very strong so I expect the market will go higher early on.  The target closes for the S&P are 1047 and 1068. Targets on the Nasdaq 100 are 1403 and 1463.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 11, 2003

Long,  20% Titan, 32% Velocity for Wednesday.  Got some weak leveling off instead of a bounce.  Wednesday shows some broader promise.  We are staying long.  It will be interesting to see if the market can continue to make new highs under these less than stellar conditions.  Our projected closes for Wednesday on the S&P are 1040 and 1058 on the Nasdaq100 1386 and 1429.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 10, 2003

Long 47% Velocity for Tuesday.  The market dropped in two steps today.  The Nasdaq 100 in particular shows good probabilities for a snap back bounce on Tuesday. The worry is that the potential for a large (2%) drop is also in the cards.  We aligned our position with the strongest probabilities.  The Nasdaq 100 long term technicals are still positive and I expect to see a retrace of today's decline.  Target closes for the S&P are 1038 and 1057.  For the Nasdaq 100 1387 and 1441.  I will post an update on the long term view later in the week regarding the SEC probe into Mutual fund trading.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 7, 2003

Short, 10% in Titan, 10% in Venture for Monday.   Some positive numbers came out this morning regarding job growth, but the markets reaction did not follow suit and ended lower. The sentiment is still rather even with just a slight negative leaning and we took a small short position.  The long term technical indicator on the Nasdaq 100 remains positive and the T-Index, at a -170, remains negative, giving back the recent small gains.  Target closes for the S&P are 1043 and 1060.  For the Nasdaq 1411 and 1454.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 6, 2003

100% Money market.  Thursday the market spent the first half of the day on the down side then rallied in the afternoon.  The market probabilities are positive much like yesterday's, but the potential for a large downside move in the Nasdaq 100 adds risk that I do not want to take.  Both the close and highs for the S&P and Nasdaq 100 stayed slightly below Monday's close.  The target closes for the S&P are 1051 and 1066 for the Nasdaq 100 look for 1417 and 1454.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 5, 2003

Split 10% Titan, 5% Venture for Thursday.  The market made an attempt to go higher late in the day but faltered at the close.  We found the closing figures positive, but with a large size negative movement possible in the Nasdaq 100.  As a result we took a small split position.   The T-Index is a -164.  There was a short term interest rate hike in Australia.  A country with a strong economy and strong currency. The USA with a weak economy and currency should not see a rate hike for quite a while.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1044 and 1063.  For the Nasdaq 100 look for 1399 and 1451.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 4, 2003

Short,  25% in Venture, 10% in Tempest for Wednesday.  Small pull back today with some firming at the close.  We increased our down side commitment which may leave us a  a bit more exposed than I would like based on the closing figures, but still no where near fully invested.  A hint of positive news could cause the markets to test Monday's highs.  Our closing targets are 1040 and 1062 for the S&P and 1406 and 1455 for the Nasdaq 100.  If we do go lower expect support at 1048 on the SPX and 1420 on the NDX.  T-Index is at -163 still indicating a weak economy. Gold's strength in the wake of a rising market also tells us the same story.  When we look at the weak dollar we have the final part of the picture, it is just a matter of time before the the market comes to the same conclusion. Be careful even though interest rates are low, now is not a time to trade on margin.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Nov. 3, 2003

Short,  15% in Venture for Tuesday.  The market made new highs on Monday providing us with a very spit signal on the close.  My initial reading is that there should be a test of the highs on Tuesday with new highs being made, however I expect a later down turn, especially  in the Nasdaq 100.  However the futures market is telling us the drop will start from the open.  We will have to wait and see how the aftermarket progresses. Target closes for the S&P 1051 and 1067 for the Nasdaq 100 look for 1427 and 1456.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 31, 2003

100% Money market for Monday.  The S&P was higher and the Nasdaq 100 was lower on Friday.  The program is tracking very well and I seem to have found a good balance with the current variables.  Monday's  target closing prices for the S&P are 1043 and 1056.  For the Nasdaq 100 we are looking at 1391 and 1435. Probabilities and expected amplitudes are mildly negative.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 30, 2003 

Short, 15% Tempest 15% Venture 70% in money market.  Hard call for Friday.  The 7.2% gain in GDP for the third quarter received a rally welcome then a blah slight  pull back. Our program can't forecast news events but was still right on target.  For Friday we reduced our exposure in the S&P as the probabilities and amplitudes became more even.  As for the dull reaction to the largest increase in GDP in 19 years?  When the market goes up on bad news it is good and when it goes down on good news it is bad. The large jump was due to war spending and most likely a carryover from the lack of purchases made during the first and second quarter war mentality days.  There was also a big boost from construction, remodeling and refurnishing from the refinancing that took place during the early part of the year.  These are not the long term sustainable conditions that we would like to see.   The forth quarter will not go at the same pace. Closing targets for the S&P are 1037 and 1058, targets for the Nasdaq 100 are 1390 and 1439.  The T-Index fell off to -164.  The Canadian T-Index was +74 yesterday.  Denoting a strong economy.  What is the significance?  Over the past year the Canadian dollar increased 17% relative to the US economy.  Purchasing Canadian government bonds would have yielded a gain of over 20%.  We will have more on international investing at a later date.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 29, 2003

Short, 24% Tempest, 15% Venture. Most of the indexes closed slightly higher.  Our probabilities lean to the negative along with the expected amplitudes.  No clear signal, but Thursday should be a down day in a topping pattern.  Target closes for the S&P are 1037 and 1056.  For the Nasdaq 100 look for 1390 and 1440.  Thursday could be the start of a down leg, but we have seen that attempt many times in the recent past.  Right now the long term technical indicator for the Nasdaq 100 is still positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 28, 2003

Long 5% Velocity, 5% Titan for Wednesday.  We got the strong day as expected.  And it went beyond our projected target high.  We reduced our exposure for Wednesday as probabilities and expected amplitudes lean towards a smaller gain.  The strong close is a positive sign and we should attempt to test the recent highs we saw earlier in the month on Wednesday.  For the Nasdaq 100 this was the largest one day gain since July 7th.  July 8th was a short term top.  Closing targets are 1040 and 1053 for the S&P and 1406 and 1437 for the Nasdaq 100.  The T-Index in response to The Fed's hands off policy closed at -152.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 27, 2003

Long 15% Velocity, 15% Titan for Tuesday.  What started out as a very weak signal turned more positive on the close and I expect to see a strong Tuesday.  We increased our exposure to include the S&P through the Titan no-load (2x) fund. The target closes for the S&P are 1025 and 1040.  The targets for the Nasdaq 100 are 1355 and 1411.  Our T -index is at -157 bad, but no longer getting worse.  Take a look the article in Bloomberg. <http://www.bloomberg.com>  It has a new take on where manufacturing  jobs are headed.  It's scary. 

Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 24, 2003

Long, 15% Velocity for Monday.  We are spending most of our time sitting out this topping formation.  Our signals have been very mixed.  The signal for Monday turned a bit weaker on the close, but was never very strong.  We took a small positive position in the Rydex funds Velocity 100, the 2x emulation for the Nasdaq 100.  I expect the trading range to narrow further due to the mixed signals.  Target closes for the S&P are 1022 and 1036, for the Nasdaq 100 1353 and 1391.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 23, 2003

100% money market for Friday.  Took a tiny hit today as the S&P proved to be the stronger of the indexes.  The Nasdaq 100 for Friday continues to show more negative probabilities. The potential amplitudes have decreased in size putting our range for the S&P (target closes) at 1025 to 1039. For the Nasdaq 100 they are 1359 and 1400.  The after-market immediately turned lower so expect a lower opening.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 22, 2003

Short, 25% Tempest 500, 75% money market, for Thursday.  A large portion of my analysis is statistical and depends on how many similar conditions we can match. The overall signal is a short, but the most relevant conditions paint a somewhat different picture and suggest the there might be a recovery in the Nasdaq on Thursday.  We took a small position short in the S&P.  Target closes on the S&P are 1021 and 1036.  Will India take over where Japan left off?  With much of their technical population English speaking, they seem to be on their way.  A  long term update was posted over this past  weekend, take a look.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 21, 2003

100% money market for Wednesday.  Nasdaq 100 gained some ground as the S&P barely got out of  the starting gate.  We got a third day of money market as the indicators are well balanced.  It looks like the investors are pretty well split on the future direction of this market going immediately forward.  The probabilities show some preference on the upside for the S&P but very little in the way of potential gain.  The Nasdaq 100 shows an even split but more potential for a sizeable  loss.  A look at the 60 minute charts confirms the range of 1036 to 1051 we show for the S&P in our target closes.  The Nasdaq 100 range looks like 1385 to 1440 from the charts and slightly higher from our calculations.  From a gut level seeing that we have gone up the first two days of our money market calls I would expect a small pull back on Wednesday.  T-Index showed some minor improvement to -165.  Monday's LA times had an article on how "brainy" jobs are now being filled overseas for US companies. This is something I touched upon in my last long term update posted over the weekend, take a look.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 20, 2003

100% money market for Tuesday.  More positive earnings news, but leading economic indicators dropped in September. The aftermarket on the Nasdaq100 climbed almost 1% after the close as of this writing so expect a strong opening, I do not expect a strong follow through, but most likely a higher close. Our probabilities are mixed but the potential moves are more significant on the down-side.  Target closes for the S&P 500 are 1036 and 1049.  T-Index closed at -172.  We do have a new long-term forecast up so take a look.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 17, 2003

100% money market for Monday.  The market stopped over a point and a half lower than our target  low close.  The drop relieved some of the downward pressure and brought our signal back to neutral.  I expect the market to be less volatile in Monday's trading.  Targets for the S&P are 1031 and 1048.  The drop pushed the T-Index up to -173.  There will be a new long term forecast posting this weekend.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 16, 2003

Short, for Friday.  30% Tempest, 30% Venture.  Our readings continue to be very negative, but the market is holding firm.  Our T-Index made a new post-great-depression low of -179.  The recovery is happening, but without great speed and without clear sailing ahead.  IBM was cautious and Nokia lowered 4th quarter estimates.  Ebay on the other hand had third quarter profits up 69%.  We hold our negative view for Friday. Friday's S&P target closings are 1041 and 1057.   A new long term view will post this weekend.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 15, 2003

Short, for Thursday.  30% Tempest, 30% Venture.  The market roared to an early gain on good earnings news from Intel and General Motors, but it looked like a blow off after the first few minutes.  The close was lower, but not disturbingly so.  What I did find disturbing was an article in the LA Times regarding the looming collapse of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.  This government agency insures retirement plans for 44 Million American workers and will need a bail out. It has an 8.8 Billion shortfall.  Still small potatoes compared to the Iraq mess.  Target closes on the S&P for Thursday are 1029 and 1054.  T-Index holds at a -175.  I am looking for mostly down movement on Thursday from the opening bell.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 14, 2003

Short, for Wednesday.  30% Tempest, 30% Venture.  S&P closed about 1/2 point below our target high.  I expect an expanded range for Wednesday.  Our probabilities are strongly negative, but we are coming up against a strong earnings report from Intel after the Tuesday's close which should give the market early wings.  Our closing targets on the S&P are 1034 and 1056.  The T-Index is at a -177 where it dipped in mid August.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 13, 2003

100% money market.  Another new high today as we closed on our forecast target high for the S&P.  Certainly would have preferred to close on the forecast target low. For Tuesday closing targets are 1039 and 1050.  I do not expect to see very much of a move in either direction.  The "after-market" is positive, indicating an early up side that I expect will peak early.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 10, 2003

Short for Monday, 30% Tempest, 30% Venture.  As expected the market failed to follow through on Friday,  yet failed to drop substantially.  The futures market closed higher Indicating that there will be another attempt for new highs on Monday.  Our program however gives a 2 : 1 probability  favoring a drop, with the associated magnitudes supporting the theory.  Target closes for the S&P are 1029 and 1045.  Late next week I will post a new expanded long term view.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct. 9, 2003

100% Money market for Friday.  Highs were tested and surpassed.  Then the rally ran out of gas.  There could be another feeble attempt on Friday, but I really doubt that new highs will be made.  The probabilities of closing higher are positive, but the potential for large negative moves also looms and we choose to take today's profits and hide until we once again see more clearly.  The T-Index is a valuable tool that reads the current economic conditions.  It is now showing a rapid deterioration in  those conditions.  Target closes for Friday's S&P are 1028 and 1047.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct.8, 2003

Long, 30% Titan, 20% Velocity, for Thursday.  We closed out our small long position at the morning fix.  Then repositioned ourselves more substantially at the close.  I expect to see the market resume its up move to test the highs on Thursday.  Target closes for the S&P are 1025 and 1045.  T-Index got weaker today as the short term rates dropped and the long term increased.  This type of action is telling us the economy is stumbling.  I do not expect a rally to take us very far from where we are, but the up-trend seems to be intact for the time being.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct.7, 2003

20% long, 10% Titan and 10% Velocity for Wednesday.  I expect to see the market top out early in the AM.  After five up days there will probably not be much further to go,  we took a small bite, but I am inclined to pull out on the morning fix as the probabilities lost strength on the close.  I am looking at 1032 and 1046 as the target closes on the S&P 500.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct.6, 2003

100% money market for Tuesday.  Small up-move on Monday left us with positive probabilities, but stronger potential for larger size down moves.  We are staying in the money market.  Target closes on the S&P are 1024 and 1042.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct.3, 2003

100% money market for Monday.   Pretty good call yesterday, got the large up-side jump and ended the day within .15 points of our target.  I expect the market will give back some of its gains on Monday with the Nasdaq leading the way.   The S&P is non committal.   S&P target closes are 1022 and 1037.  Our T-Index weakened with the positive employment news, but a steep yield curve is not friendly to a strong recovery.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct.2, 2003

Long 15% Titan, 15% Velocity for Friday.  Consolidation leaves us with a positive forecast and possibility that there may be another large up-side jump.  Our overall signal value is just mildly positive so we remain cautious and reduced our exposure to 30% from 50% on Thursday.  Closing S&P target forecasts for Friday 1013 and 1030.  T-Index sits at -150,  reflecting the steep yield curve and indicating deflationary pressures. It is my belief that we can not get a sustainable economic recovery under these conditions.  Our long-term  Nasdaq 100 technical  indicator is still positive and that tells me that we could still go higher in the market, at least for a little while.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: Oct.1, 2003

Long 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Thursday.  Big bounce on Wednesday.  I expect it to carry a bit further, but not with the same force.  The market is still split between poor economics and traders that want to push it higher.  The traders are obviously still alive.  I expect that the market will get more choppy with wider swings as the top of the market continues to form.  As for the economics, the cities and state agencies are always late in cutting back staff and purchases of capital equipment during economic downturns.  These cutbacks in the government agencies should continue in force into 2004 offsetting any increases in capital spending we may see from the business side.  Target for Thursday's S&P is 1009 to 1027.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: September 30, 2003

100% money market for Wednesday.  The poor earnings from Sun combined with negative economic data was too much for today's market.  The signals are very mixed for Wednesday and we moved into the money market.  There  was a sharp drop in the 10 year interest rates, maybe enough to provide a small bounce in the S&P for Wednesday.  The Nasdaq 100 is not as affected by rate changes and will be a bit more independent so we could see continued weakness.  The Nasdaq 100 has now given up all of September's gain.  Expected closing targets for Wednesday on the S&P are 982 and 1001.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: September 29, 2003

60% Long for Tuesday. (30% Titan, 30% Velocity)  The Nasdaq 100 closed within a birds breath of the top which normally provides about a 60% opportunity for continuation in the same upward direction.  Our program shows a little less on the percentage side, but still positive.  I expect the Nasdaq recovery to last into Tuesday and maybe further into mid week.  Our Long term Nasdaq 100 technical indicator is still positive.  Today's S&P close hit our target high as our program continues its good job of tagging the close.  I will have an update to our long term forecast up in a few days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: September 26, 2003

100% Money market for Monday.  Friday's market was a little worse than the indices would suggest.  Declines outnumbered advancers by over 2 to 1.   Monday's forecast indication is mixed with both positive and negative influences tugging at the market.  The Nasdaq 100 has dropped 6.5% in the past 6 days and could show some rebound potential.  T-Index is making some slow positive progress, but is too far in the hole to matter at this point.  I expect we will find the markets a bit more volatile in the coming weeks.  Our program has done a decent job in its forecast of target closings this week.  Expected targets for Monday on the S&P are 983 and 1005.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 25, 2003

Short 12.5%, Tempest 500.  Stock market ended the day  weaker than expected after recovering from the early morning blues.  Kodak trying to exchange film for profits will first have to cut dividends.  The announcement knocked 18% off the price.  It is now down about 75% off its high.  Rapid changes in technology will make it even more difficult for large companies to have extended life spans as new technology can knock the sleepers out of the box and being awake may not help in some cases.  We reversed our position but are mostly in the money market.  T-Index -154.  Both long and short term rates have dropped steadily over the past three weeks.  The T-Index is down from its peak, but has a long way to go.   The longer term technical trend on the Nasdaq100 is holding positive, but another large drop like we saw on Wednesday would reverse that trend. S&P closing targets for Friday are 990 and 1011.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 24, 2003

Long for Thursday. 25% Titan, 25% Velocity, 50% money mkt.  The 1010 neckline on the S&P head and shoulders pattern was reached on the close.  (1009.37) . I expect a rally off this point to the 1020 area.  The Nasdaq 100 could get to the high 1360's. Projected target closing low and high on the S&P is 1002 and 1019.  The weak dollar news is now joined by increased oil prices.  Tech prices took a beating and might go a little lower on the open, but I expect firmer prices on the close.  T-Index is a -156 as both the long and short term interest rates fell a bit.     Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 23, 2003

100% Money market for Wednesday.  We got more upside today than I expected.  However the S&P did close within 1 point of our upside target.  Daily chart could be putting in a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline at about 1010 on the S&P.  Wednesday's closing target prices are 1022 and 1037.  The Nasdaq 100 has a stronger negative bent.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 22, 2003

Short 20% .  10% Tempest, 10% Venture. For Tuesday.   The weak dollar was blamed for today's drop.  Expect more of the same tomorrow.  Dollar down, the war costs more.  We are heavily dependent on imports for our every day life from coffee to cars to bed sheets.  This puts a higher burden on the consumer and corporations which in turn slows capital spending.  I don't see it helping US manufacturing in terms of growth of new firms, but it should help existing manufacturers some.  Could lure some foreign money back into real-estate.  Good call on the S&P for today as we landed within 1/4 point of target.  For Tuesday the expected closing targets are 1013 and 1030.  T-Index closed at -159.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 21, 2003

Short 30% for Monday.  15% Tempest, 15% Venture.   We have a weak "short" signal and are only partially invested on the short side with the rest in the money market.  Expected S&P targets for Monday's close are 1023 & 1040. Nasdaq appears weaker, but long term up-trend is still intact.  The economics are still negative and deflationary.  I continue to expect a major correction and expect it will start with the Technology sector.  We will  take it one day at a time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 18, 2003

Short 30% for Friday.  15% Tempest, 15% Venture.  Short term signal calling for a pull back on Friday.  Potential does exist for another 1% climb Friday, but most likely we will see a pull back.  T-Index slightly improved, but still very negative at -155.  S&P range is 1031 to 1050.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 17, 2003

100% money market.  The market touched new highs and as expected, backed off.  We now have mixed signals as the topping action plays out.  We are on the sidelines for the action, which we expect will start off rather mild until a direction is determined.  Probabilities for the S&P are very even, more negative for the Nasdaq 100.  Expected range is 1015 to 1033 for the S&P.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 16, 2003

100% money market.  The market caught us by surprise as I thought a small move was more in order, either way.  Wednesday we are looking at challenging the previous highs.  Range for the S&P looks like 1022 to 1042.  Nasdaq looks like it has a better upside probability, but  more risk on the down side.   Previous highs are just a few points away and the markets could lose strength after they are touched or approached.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 15, 2003

Short, 10% Tempest 500, 10% Venture100 for Tuesday.  The T-Index is at -160.  The short side looks more promising, but we are still in a topping mode so we just took a nibble.   Target range on the S&P is 1005 to 1020.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 12, 2003

Long, 30% S&P 500, 25% Nasdaq 100 for Monday.  Friday the market dropped first, then closed higher by a few points.  We expected it to rise then fall off, but close higher.  Same end-result.  We were in the money market early in the week as the market dropped then took the  long side for  two days of gains.   For Monday the Nasdaq 100 appears to have much more strength than the S&P with much stronger probabilities.  The T-Index is at -160.  Showing deflationary economic conditions.  The Nasdaq 100 long term indicator is still positive.  The combination is most indicative of a bear market rally so we need to watch the Nasdaq closely, as we could already  be at the peak of the rally.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 11, 2003

Long, 30% S&P 500, 25% Nasdaq 100 for Friday.  Rally should continue into Friday.  May fall off by the afternoon, but should still close higher.  Range on the S&P is 1011 to 1022.  As you can see the max has not risen from yesterday's forecast.  The S&P faltered today at the 1020-1021 level.  The Nasdaq 100 will probably also have a hard time getting through 1363.  Overall expect a small up day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 10, 2003

Long, 30% S&P 500, 25% Nasdaq 100.  So far there is little damage done to the uptrend.   The expected S&P range for Wednesday is 1002  to 1022.  We positioned ourselves long in the Nasdaq 100 more for the larger upside amplitude potential than % probability.  We could see some early morning weakness, but there should be a rally bringing the market higher by the close.  If we see a drop back below the 1280 level over the next week or so on the Nasdaq 100, I would assume that we are back in a down trend.  For now however I expect a mid-week bounce. 

 I came across  what  I hope will not become  a disturbing trend.  The State of Florida is requiring all vendors to kick back 1% to the State on any purchase the state makes with them.  "Section 287.057(23) Florida Statutes (2202).  You can check this out yourself at www.myfloridamarketplace.com   This type of foolishness will only lead to vendors adding the 1% or more to their bids and marks Florida as an unfriendly place to do business.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 9, 2003

100% Money market for Wednesday.  We got the pause and now the outlook is flat to lower.  The markets are sitting about where they were a week ago Tuesday.  Tops are generally rounded while bottoms usually take on a sharp V shape.  S&P targets are 1015 and 1031.  A look at the Nasdaq 100 on the daily charts, position the index at the top of a steep channel.  Were it to roll over we would look at about 1350 as the first stop on the way down.  For the time being the up-trend is holding.  We very well may see a drop on Wednesday as our current strongest short term indicator, based on key bellwether stocks, turned negative on Monday's close and continues negative.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 8, 2003

100% Money market for Tuesday.  The market regained its strong steady pace higher.  I expect to see a pause in the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, but no great sell off.  The upward trend remains intact.  The moves remain moderate in size with no blow off type of action.  President Bush announced what will probably be a 100 Billion $ annual sink hole in Iraq.  Great timing with a still shaky economy.  Investors cheered anyway. Range on the S&P looks like 1026 to 1041.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 7, 2003

100% Money market for Monday.  We moved into the money market on Friday's close.  I am putting more emphasis on taking this day by day until the longer term picture clears up.  My work is now focused on reducing the number of variables we work with.  The fewer the variable the more reliable the forecast.  Since the "curve fitting" is kept to a minimum.  This is sometimes hard to do when some variables look so tempting.  Mixed signals with the long term trend for the Nasdaq intact and aimed up. The economics (T-Index ) aimed down and the short term trend flat. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 4, 2003

Long, 15% Titan500, 15% Velocity.  The S&P is now well over due for a small correction. The Nasdaq had one on Wednesday and appears well rested and ready to go higher.  I would think that the S&P will drag a bit until it also has a one or two day back off. With the Nadaq 100 rolling again and measuring positive for the longer term we too are positive on the market.  We do still find the economy lacking and are ready to reverse our stand if the markets show signs of burning out. Which would mean larger single day moves in either direction.  For now we are easing in on the up side.  A new long term commentary was posted today.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 3, 2003

100% Money market for Thursday.  Now seven up days in a row for the S&P. Our long term Technical indicator for the Nasdaq is fully "long", having mushed out the "short" over almost two months. The markets appear over bought at this level going higher without a break. So we are waiting to re-enter. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: September 2, 2003

100% money market for Wednesday.  With six up days in a row we are somewhat shy of entering the market on the up-side.  How ever our calculations show that the potential for a 7th day, especially with regard to the Nasdaq is good.  Will be see a blow off or is this the beginning of a new up-leg?  The answer should be clear this week. T-Index now -173.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: August 29, 2003

100% money market for Tuesday.  Post holiday trading should be light. We do not see any trend emerging at this point with emotions mostly balanced.  We are sitting in the money market till our signals lean to either side.  I expect that unless we get some large moves early in the week, either way our Nasdaq100 technical indicator will swing to the positive side this coming week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: August 28, 2003

100% money market for Friday.   Expect to see some catch-up with the S&P pushing a little higher.  The Nasdaq may sit quietly and take a small break.  Normally there is a preholiday rally, but that may have come today.  I expect that within the next week and a half things will become much more clear.  These new highs will either hold or fold.  S&P range for Friday is 997 to 1012.  Thursday we closed on our forecast high target after getting close to our low target.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: August 27, 2003

Short, 25% Tempest , 25% Venture.  I don't think there was much to complain about in yesterday's forecast.  Even though the S&P did fall two points short of 1000, and did close up .06, but there was as expected a split market most of the day with the Nasdaq higher and the rest of the markets lower.  Thursday we should see them all in agreement and all lower.  The Nasdaq which has been stronger lately should show the most weakness. The range on the S&P looks like 989 to 1002.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: August 26, 2003

100% Money market for Wednesday.  The long anticipated drop continues to move further away.  Today we saw a failed attempt to go lower.  Probabilities for Wednesday are much like for Tuesday.  We might see a move higher in the morning with the S&P going over 1000, by the close we have potential for a split market with the S&P lower and the Nasdaq higher.  I am now looking for the drop to start on Thursday.  S&P target is 988 to 1004.  T-Index is a  -161.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: August 25, 2003

100% Money market for Tuesday.  The Still in a topping action and I expect a small upward spark on Tuesday that may carry over into Wednesday.  Although the probabilities favor the down side we moved into the money market as the amplitudes are higher on the up-side, increasing the risk of being wrong.   I do not expect the markets to go go higher than their previous tops of last week.  Look for S&P range between 987 and 1002.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: August 22, 2003

Short, 32.5% Tempest, 22.5% Venture for Monday. The economy is growing slowly through productivity increases.   This economic cycle shows greater differences from previous cycles.  From an interest rate point of view it is behaving like the 1930's.  But with the fast pace of technological improvements, there are still pockets of growth.   The US economy is digesting the radical modifications going  from pre-internet to post-internet economies as it continues to lay-off excess labor.    The discarded labor will become a problem unless redirected into new businesses.  The rapid growth of new business due to the internet has subsided, and it will take some time for the economy to readjust to its new conditions.  I expect to see some negative movement this week at least during the early part. Our T-index closed at -166 in alignment with its current negative readings.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: August 21, 2003

Short 10% Tempest for Friday.   A very long and windy top.  The markets continue to crawl higher.  The S&P is still under its July high, but the Nasdaq 100 has poked through its July level.  Yesterday's comments still hold, it looks like another attempt will be made to go higher on Friday, but I expect it will be be stopped.  I reduced our exposure to only 10% during this rounding process.  We are looking for a lower market next week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  

Comments: August 20, 2003

Short 15% Tempest.  We reduced our exposure because of the strength of the market.  I expect this strength could carry  for a day or two, but am still looking for the market to roll over.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.

Comments: August 19, 2003

Short, 30% Tempest, 20% Venture for Wednesday.  No doubt about it we have gotten beat up recently.  So today was spent going over the program looking for flaws.  The program is fine, it is comprised of a small number of segments and they all passed our review.  We did make a change in the way we combine the segments and that should provide some relief from the one-sidedness we have experienced recently.  Tuesday's forecast  however was still a short, no mater how we sliced it.  We have not changed our opinion on the economy or this market.  Target close for the S&P on Wednesday is 985 to 1009.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.

Comments: August 18, 2003

Short, 30% Tempest, 20% Venture for Tuesday. Monday's higher move,  puts us in the difficult spot of determining if we are about to continue on higher or peak at this level.  The 1280 - 1283 level on the Nasdaq100 was the level that provided our topping signal. If we would go significantly higher I would have to assume the Nasdaq rally is back in full force and the market is going higher.  As of now the markets are almost back to their highs.  I don't like this ride up, but will adjust for it if forced to.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.

Comments: August 15, 2003

Short, 30% Tempest, 20% Venture for Monday.  The market seems to be gradually rolling over as the economic news seems to show some firming.  The slow rollover has gone on for about six weeks.   If we do not see a more significant down draft  within the next two to three weeks, the market may just find a base and show further gains.  I don't believe this to be the case as I would hope to see the T-Index first show that there is something behind the recovery.  Right now it continues to warn of deflation.  Currently standing at a -176.   Probabilities are still negative, but much less than they have been, a reflection of the passive trading day we had on Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.

Comments: August 14, 2003

Short, 30% Tempest, 20% Venture for Friday. Power outages in New York, Detroit, Cleveland in the United States and Toronto and Ottawa in Canada, caused the markets to fall in aftermarket trading.  It could be a summer overload, but I don't have the final word so there is a flight to safety going on.  We went into the close holding our short position.  On Wednesday there was an article in the LA Times business section regarding the high sell to buy ratio of 32 to 1 where insiders are selling 32 times as much stock on the open market as they are buying.  Although there is always more selling than buying since the insiders can get the stocks directly from the company 32 to 1 is way out of line.  5  to 1 would be much more normal.  Insiders are considered to be the most knowledgeable investors with regards to their company's stocks.  Expected closing range for the S&P is 974 to 999.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.

Comments: August 13, 2003

Short, 30% Tempest, 20% Venture for Thursday.  Today's T-Index continued its fall into deflationary territory at a -177.  This happens when the long term rates rise relative to the short term rates.  There are three forces that move the long term interest rates. First there are normal  "buy and sell" investor and speculator forces, these are neither good nor bad as they supply liquidity to the market, but often they push the market strongly in one direction or another in an attempt to make a profit.   A second force is the pressure from business to borrow more cash for expansion.  As we know business expansion adds jobs and is generally good for the economy.  So business expansion will cause rates to rise, but in an expanding economy that is a good thing.  Last there is pressure from business and States to pay off bills and debts that are coming due and can not be paid from income, this is the case for business with current pension fund problems and States like California that can't balance their budget.  This usually happens because of a bad economy and is a bad thing since it causes rates to rise making the economic conditions worse.  This is happening now in combination with a push from the speculators.  As the rates go higher it further chokes the economy, slowing it down eventually into real deflation.  Once deflation is acknowledged the long term rates will fall back down.  This is just my view so you should think about it from your own insights.  By Friday I expect the market will finally have enough of this give and take and start to make solid steps lower.  Expected closing range for Thursday is 974 to 993.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.

Comments: August 12, 2003

Short, 30% Tempest, 20% Venture for Wednesday.  Mr. Greenspan was quite clear.  They are not about to raise rates and the risks of a fall in inflation is greater than the risks of a rise in inflation.  And the investors cheered and sent the S&P up 1%.  Folks when there is no inflation a "fall in inflation" is "deflation"!!!! The dreaded D word that the Fed is trying to avoid using.   A look at the T-Index which closed at  -166 shows us the risks are real.  There may be some more up-side joy first thing in the AM, but I don't expect it to last.  I continue to hold the short position.  Expected closing range on the S&P is 980 to 1000.  This should be the last attempt to go higher at these levels.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.

Comments: August 11, 2003

Short, 30% Tempest, 20% Venture for Tuesday.  The short term indicators are are positive, but are being drowned out by long term concerns.  Fed meeting this week, I would expect to find that they will hold the short term rates where they are, but issue a statement that they are ready to keep long term rates from going too high.  My expectation is the market will be forced down at some point during this week. Tuesday's expected closing range 971 to 990 on the S&P.  We posted a new long term view, take a look.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.

Comments: August 8, 2003

Short, 30% Tempest, 20% Venture for Monday.  The Nasdaq 100 is showing more weakness than the S&P 500.  Both should go lower next week.  I will post a long-term forecast this weekend to discuss the market in light of current events.  The T-Index remains weak and the technicals are also negative.  Expected closing range for Monday on the S&P is 966 to 983.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.

Comments: August 7, 2003

Short, 30% Tempest, 20% Venture for Friday.  Looks like the sell off will continue on Friday and on into next week.  We have moved back into our short position in anticipation.  Expected closing range for the S&P on Friday looks like 958 to 984.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: August 6, 2003

Money market for Thursday.  Very mixed signals for Thursday.  We should see some stabilizing in the Nasdaq100 while the S&P should slip back.  With this type of conflict we are staying in the money market.   We have encountered over the past few months conditions that have we have not seen since the 1930's.  I expect that deflation will be a greater problem than anyone will admit at this point in time.  The next long term forecast will post this weekend and address these deflationary problems along with unemployment issues.  In response to these "new" conditions  I  made some major changes and simplifications to our program. Consistency and reliability of the forecasts is my paramount concern and I removed some variables that were not carrying their weight under these new circumstances. Some of the changes are already visible, like the Nasdaq 100 long term technical indicator that called a top early July.  S&P closing targets are 954 to 974.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: August 5, 2003

Long 14% Velocity for Wednesday.  What was that saying about being at the airport when the train came in?  Wednesday should see a partial recovery, but there could easily be more down side in the morning.  As I have been saying the long-term economics as measured by the T-Index are bad and the long-term technical's on the Nasdaq 100 index gave a short signal on July 7 th when we issued our alert. (long term projection).  Tuesday was the first real sign of a break down starting.  We should be moving back to a short position soon.  Expected closing range for S&P on Tuesday is 958 to 978.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: August 4, 2003

Long, 30% Titan, 14% Velocity for Tuesday.  Good rebound in the T - Index today should help set up a small rally for Tuesday and maybe Wednesday.  Most of our short term indicators are positive.  The premium between the futures and cash on the S&P did however get more negative at the close, so there is some dissent.  Market showed some resilience today, closing higher after a sell off in the morning.  I do not expect any rally to carry very far as our longer term indicators are negative for both the Nasdaq and S&P and they use very different techniques.  Expected closing range for S&P on Tuesday is 977 to 991.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.     

Comments: August 1, 2003

Short position of 30% Tempest for Monday.  Friday continued Thursday's weakness.  The market is forming a broad top from which to either rally or crumble.  With it being the summer,  the T-Index at a low not seen since the depression years (now -172) and our Nasdaq 100 technical long term indicators calling for a Short,  I would suggest lower is wiser.  No one seems to be in a hurry about this so it may continue slowly winding its way down.  Expected closing range for S&P on Monday is 972 to 984.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.     

Comments: July 31

Short position of 30% Tempest for Friday.  Bit of a roller coaster ride for Thursday, but all averages closed higher at the end of the day.  We have crossed signals for the Nasdaq for Friday and have moved that portion of our funds into the money market.  The S&P however looks weak and we held the short, staying in the tempest fund.  Some good economic indicators came in, but the biggest problem is the long term interest rates which have climbed a percentage point since Mr Greenspan indicated that he would be willing to purchase long bonds to hold rates low.  This has caused our T-Indicator to reach new lows now at -173 and headed lower.  The States and Federal government are in a deficit mode and they will have to borrow more money at higher rates, causing the rates to go even higher shutting off the economy which has yet to really budge.  Say good bye to the refinance boom that has kept us alive this past two years.  Range for Friday's S&P looks like 981 to 995.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.     

Comments: July 30, 2003

Short position of 20% Venture, 30% Tempest for Thursday.  The market continues to drift.  A few days down a few days up.  We continue to hold our short position.  More work is being done on our long term technical indicator for the Nasdaq 100. I am looking to add a neutral state to the long and short states that currently exist.  The T-Index is sitting at -159, there hasn't been very much movement in this indicator over the past two weeks even though the interest rates have soared.  Expected range for the S&P on Thursday is 979 to 995.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.   

Comments: July 29, 2003   

Short position of 20% Venture, 30% Tempest for Wednesday.  It has been three weeks since our technical Nasdaq 100 program moved into a long term short position. The market has lost a small amount since then, but we still expect more downside.  Our T-Index is at -161.  Target for the S&P on Wednesday is 980 to 993.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: July 28, 2003

Holding short position of 20% Venture, 30% Tempest for Tuesday.  I  worked on gaining an understanding of directional stability this weekend.  Is the market changing direction each day or is it stable and going in one direction, or is it somewhere in between?  Also is the market becoming more stable or less stable?  Interesting questions and the answers can provide more clues to continuing market direction.  I also studied momentum growth where each day the change is larger then it was the prior day, another subject that can help define market direction.  The market is a unique subject in that it can be approached from endless directions.  Target range for S&P on Tuesday is 987 to 1000.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: July 25, 2003

Reduced our short position to 20% Venture 30% Tempest for Monday.   The market is now very responsive to news and the news is very mixed, resulting in skitish daily swings.  The market has changed direction 4 times in the last 5 days.  It appears that there is a better chance of up-side follow through on Monday (than is shown in the probabilities) which should then be the top of this move, however a drop on Monday may lead us back into the switching market we had last week and we could see the upside come on Tuesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.     

Comments: July 24, 2003

Short (30% Venture,45% Tempest) for Friday. The market had early strength partially due to good earnings in AT&T and Viacom, but it could not holdup.  The S&P is in a pattern of lower highs since mid June. It looks like it won't take much to really break down which I expect would happen if it gets below 974.  The Nasdaq 100 got above our area of concern at 1283, but then rolled over, and fell over 30 points from its peak.  Because of today's action we increased our short position, looking for further erosion and perhaps a larger than normal pull back, which could take place as early as Friday morning (judging by the early going in the future's market).   Our T-Index is at -162. Expected range is 970 to 988.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.     

Comments: July 23, 2003

Short (20% Venture,30% Tempest) for Thursday. Yesterday's comments continue to hold.  We continue to be 50% invested on the down side.  I am still watching the 1280-1283 level on the Nasdaq 100. Staying below this area would support the theory that a new top is in place and we are working our way lower.  Range is set for 973 to 1000 on the S&P. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.     

Comments: July 22, 2003

Short (20% Venture,30% Tempest) for Wednesday. Could be some early follow through on the up-side.  We are 50% invested on the down side.  I am still watching the 1280-1283 level on the Nasdaq 100. Staying below this area would support the theory that a new top is in place and we are working our way lower.  Range is set for 978 to 998 on the S&P. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.     

Comments: July 21, 2003

Short 20% (Venture), 80% Money market for Tuesday.  The T-Index moved sharply lower closing at -167, am I the only one concerned?   These readings indicate a deflation problem.  It now looks like the market top was as reported in our "alert" two weeks ago, but I will hold the reduced exposure for awhile.  Range for the S&P looks like 974 to 993.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.     

Comments: July 18, 2003

Short 20% (Venture), 80% Money market for Monday.  The T-Index stayed in deflation land at a -157.  As the short term rates approach zero the T-Index equation will become unstable, raising concerns as to the validity of any conclusions we can draw from that number, especially as it relates to the short term activity of the stock market. In any event negative values are not a good sign. And the economy under these conditions should continue to be generating news of layoffs and poor earnings.  During the depression the T-Index fell below -400.  Expected range for Monday in the S&P  is 990 to 1002.  The probabilities favor the down side, but in the S&P we have a much stronger up side potential.  The Nasdaq looks weak and once again  we look to the 1280 -1282 level to confirm our longer term direction.  A close above this level would be encouraging.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.     

Comments: July 17, 2003

Short:   60% Tempest, 20% Venture, 20% money market.   The sharp drop today, together with some additional cranking of our genetic algorithms added more credibility to our initial negative outlook.  Caution prevails, and we reduced our Nasdaq exposure for today to 20% on the short side.  However getting ourselves caught in a whiplash on Friday is always a possibility.  Looking at the NYSE from a chartist perspective shows a break down below its rising support line.  The Nasdaq 100 however is well above its rising support line.  The S&P, which usually will follow along the path of the NYSE, is right on its support line.  Estimated range for the S&P is 968 to 986.  Our T-Index continues to fall to  -158.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.     

Comments: July 16, 2003

Long 40% in Rydex Velocity 100 fund, 60% money market for Thursday.  The Signal for the S&P turned more negative at the close, but since it was vacillating we will stay with  the money market.  The Nasdaq 100 continues to show more strength and we had a firm "long" signal in that area.  In response to the question about our long term Nasdaq technical indicator, we updated our data base using the close off the official Nasdaq web site.  This leaves our long term technical Nasdaq 100 indicator "Long", I will consider it as a long, but  remain cautious and concerned about any close below 1280 and ready to re-evaluate the situation.  Stock market analysis was never an exact science.  I suspect that there will be a rally into the end of the week.  If it fails to arrive we will have to re-think the long term.  The T-Index continues along its negative path and is now at -154.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.     

Comments: July 15, 2003

Short, 60% in Rydex Tempest fund for Wednesday.  We remain cautious regarding the Nasdaq indicator (see previous comment below).  While the S&P is below the July 7 th close, the  Nasdaq is a little above its July 7 th close.  Having the Nasdaq 100 at least fall below this level would give more credence to the short indication.  We are holding on to Tuesday's position as we see more down-side coming.  The range for Wednesday on the S&P looks like 992 to 1009. The T-Index declined to -150 after Mr. Greenspan's speech reinforcing, for us, the deflation idea.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.     

Comments: July 14, 2003

Short, 60% in Rydex Tempest fund for Tuesday.  The strong rally weakened mid afternoon and the indexes gave back between half and two thirds of their gains.  A complication has come to my attention affecting our long term indicator in our Nasdaq 100 program.  Some resent price data was restated after the close by one of the data suppliers, and some of the prices affected were instrumental in our calling the top after last Mondays close.  As there is no way to know which price was truly correct and the Nasdaq historical site is a few days behind, it will be at least a few days before I can check the prices there.  Meanwhile we will be cautious in our approach. Todays T-Index was a -143.  Expected S&P range for Tuesday is 992 to 1013. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.    

Comments: July 11, 2003

100% short, 40% in Rydex Venture 100, 60% in Tempest 500 for Monday.  I believe we are seeing a continuation of the topping action in the markets.  Our signals are holding steady  and short.  The T-Index has improved slightly, but is very negative.  We should see some increase in bond prices next week as interest rates go lower in anticipation of Greenspan's speech.  The core PPI fell .1% last month and .3% over the past 12 (deflationary).  Trade deficit holds near record levels.  Not good news.  S&P targets for Monday 987 and 1005.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index.  Have a good weekend.

Comments: July 10, 2003

100% short, 40% in Rydex Venture 100, 60% in Tempest 500 for Friday.  We racked up our 11th win in 12 trades and know this kind of accuracy will not last forever.  I do expect it to last into Friday as the short term technical indicators grew more negative.  I expect the drop will become more severe on Friday,  Monday we should see the pace slacken and if there is a significant drop Friday we may get an up-tick the beginning of the week.  But let's focus on one day at a time since that is what we do best.  We closed within a point of our downside target for Thursday, and Fridays targets are 971 and 997.  The T-Index remains at -142.  If you missed our  ALERT it is part of our long term forecast.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: July 9, 2003

100% short, 40% in Rydex Venture 100, 60% in Tempest 500 for Thursday.   We held our position into Thursday, running our record of being correct in 10 of the last 11 trades.  We are preparing for the market to roll over later this week.  Thursday should be the last of the topping action, since our short term technical indicator on the Nasdaq 100 is still positive.  By  Friday the market should get seriously negative.  Expected range for Thursday on the S&P is 988 to 1013, and the T-Index is -142.  Both long term economic and long term technical indicators are negative.  We have issued an ALERT it is part of our long term forecast!.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: July 8, 2003

100% short, 40% in Rydex Venture 100, 60% in Tempest 500.   Tuesday's action should have marked the top. We have taken a full 2x negative position in anticipation of the down-swing.  We still have the short term Nasdaq 100 technical indicator pointing up, but our overall signal is firmly "SHORT".  The T-Index gained a bit to -139.  Expected range for Wednesday is 999 to 1015.  I expect to see more topping action before a serious drop.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: July 7, 2003

40% Long Rydex Velocity 100 fund for Tuesday.   Today's market action was highly significant.  I am very sure we are at the top of the market.  Our Nasdaq l00 long term indicator turned negative, it is now in sync with the T-Index which is at -145.  We are about to be heading South folks.  Tuesday may find some positive carry over from Monday in the AM.  Pre-close we had a positive signal and went long the Velocity 100.  We will however make the adjustment to the money market at the AM fix.   I suspect that the market will stagger here for about two days prior to a real downturn.   Expected range for the S&P is 995 to 1016.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: July 3, 2003

100% Money market for Monday.  We normally would be in the Tempest fund to take advantage of the potential down day in the S&P, however the early close, combined with an even earlier trade time limitation, introduced an extra risk we did not want to take, so we stayed in the money market.  Another strong week for us as the new program addition has behaved in a near flawless manner.  S&P range looks like 973 to 994.  The T-Index weakened even more to close at a -147 making new multiyear lows.  This index is telling us the economy is bad and getting worse.  Looking ahead to Tuesday I expect to see that any Monday slippage will find support and a rebound.  Have an entertaining holiday and take a look at our long term views I hope to have an update this weekend.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: July 2, 2003

100% Money market for Thursday.  With the fourth coming up on Friday we closed our week early with solid gains and moved into the money market.  The direction looks flat to lower for Thursday.  The closing tick was over 1500 as investors rushed to get in prior to the expected pre holiday rally.  Looks to me like they will all be late.  We could see an attempt at 1000 on the S&P then I expect it will be all downhill from there.  Expected range for Thursday is 985 to  1001.  For those who like to look ahead a bit the short term technical's on the Nasdaq 100 for Monday are pointed down.  T-Index got a little weaker at -136. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

Comments: July 1, 2003

40% long, Rydex Velocity for Wednesday.  The markets shook some people out Tuesday morning as it took a steep dip and rebounded to close higher.  We are holding our long position in the Nasdaq 100 using the Rydex no load Velocity fund.  This rally looks like it may continue through the end of the week, at least with the Nasdaq 100, as all our technical indicators are positive.  Since we added the influence of the Nasdaq 100 technical indicators to our program on July 13 we made money in 8 of the last 10 transactions.  Today there was a small improvement in the T-Index to -131.  Next week will bring us into some new conditions and I would chance to say the markets have a strong probability of trading lower.  The markets have been in an easy down trend since mid June and I believe that will intensify as we get more into the summer.   S&P range for Wednesday looks like 977 to 987.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the "T" index. 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2001

For earlier comments made early in year 2001

Fo99FF">earlier comments made early in year 2001

For earlier comments made in year 2000

Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil