Daily Market Commentary

Comments: June 30, 2004

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday.  A good bet is to go long for the day after the Fed adjusts interest rates and go short the day after that.  This is regardless of the direction of rate adjustment.  Our P-Trend is calling for the money market or an "out" day for Thursday, but  we stayed in long due to fed action.  Our P-Trend is calling for a Long day on Friday. Once again this goes against normal post-2nd-Fed-day direction so we shall determine our position partly based on Thursday's market action. An "out" day may be the most appropriate.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 29, 2004

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday.  We are having a bad string of missed forecasts.  With the Fed making its move on Wednesday the only thing certain is a strong move in both directions once the decision is published. The interest rate portion of our P-Trend is shifting from long to Out (Wednesday) to Short for  Thursday.  The  full trend is long for Wednesday and out for Thursday.  History has shown however that any move made by the Fed should result in an up-move on Thursday.  Today's probabilities are low on data points so I will not provide targets for Wednesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 28, 2004

Short:  50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Tuesday.  The market lost steam after a rise on the early turnover of Iraq.  That news should have been enough to keep the market higher since it pulled one more unknown off the table.  Our P-Trend  short for Tuesday is indicating a weak long for Wednesday.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1126 and 1128 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1477 and 1507.  It looks like it will be a few days before I get to the write up on tariffs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 25, 2004

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  Correction for comments June 22, 23 and 24 our positions were 50% Titan, 50% Velocity not the 25% as previously stated.  With both the Fed meeting and the US giving control over to Iraq we should see some confusion.  The Fed move should go more peacefully than Iraq.  There now looks like some probability for less than .25%. Our P-Trend is calling for a Monday up-day and Tuesday down day. Monday's call is reinforced by a strong indication in our  multivariable "daily" signal.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 24, 2004

Long for Friday.  50% Titan, 50% Velocity. Our P-Trend continues long for Friday and Monday.  The T-Index is now at -104  Our closing targets for Wednesday on the S&P are 1136 and 1152. On the Nasdaq 100 we have 1469 and 1504.   The implementation of an "active tariff" can provide benefits similar to the Fed's "active" control of interest rates.  More on this over the weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 23, 2004

Long for Thursday.  50% Titan, 50% Velocity. 

Once again the market spent the early part of the day lower.  Unfortunately for us it did not continue in that direction.  Our P-Trend is long for Thursday and Friday.  The T-Index is now at -106.  Our closing targets for Wednesday on the S&P are 1136 and 1148. On the Nasdaq 100 we have 1471 and 1518.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 22, 2004

Short for Wednesday. 50% Tempest, 50% Venture.  Early in the day the market was below the waterline. It gained strength as the day wore on.  Our P-Trend short for Wednesday gets revived for Thursday and continues its long trend.  Our closing targets for Wednesday on the S&P are 1127 and 1142. On the Nasdaq 100 we have 1455 and 1492.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 21, 2004

Long for Tuesday.  25% Titan, 25% Velocity.  The market may be running out of steam.   Our P-Trend indicator now includes two components, interest rates and price. It remains positive for Tuesday then weakens enough for Wednesday to give us a short signal. Our older multivariable "daily" signal turned short for Tuesday.  I reduced our exposure for Tuesday to "50% long", "50% money market" and expect to be 100% short for Wednesday.  Target closings for the S&P are 1122 and 1138. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1434 and 1477.  This weekend I expect to post some comments on how the implementation of an "active tariff trading pact"  can benefit the long term health of the economy.  I believe you will find the concept interesting.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 18, 2004

Long for Monday. 50% Titan, 50% Velocity.  The early gains mostly dissipated as the day wore on.  Our P-Trend is long for Monday we see a continuation of this trend into Tuesday.  Monday's closing targets for the S&P are 1130 and 1140. Closing targets for the Nasdaq 100 are 1447 and 1494.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 17, 2004

Long for Friday. 50% Titan, 50% Velocity.  Unfortunately we were on the wrong side of an accurate call for the target low close of the Nasdaq100 for Thursday.  The P-Trend continues to be optimistic instructing us to stay long through Monday.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1126 and 1142 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1445 and 1490.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 16, 2004

Long for Thursday. 50% Titan, 50% Velocity.  Our P-Trend is long for Thursday and stays long for Friday.  The market gave back some of the drop in long term (10 year) rates today, but not enough to worry us.  Target closes for the S&P are 1128 and 1142.  For the Nasdaq 100 we look to 1464 and 1515.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 15, 2004

Long for Wednesday. 50% Rydex Titan 500, 50% Rydex Velocity 100.  Our P-Trend is long for Wednesday and again long for Thursday.  Today's moderate inflation data caused the start of a small rally that may very well carry through the month.  The rate on the 10 year notes dropped to a ten day low one day after marking a 10 day high. a strong one day drop in interest rates is usually rewarded the next day by a strong up move. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 14, 2004

100% money market for Tuesday.  Rapid changes in the T-Index reflect the expectation of a .5 basis point move in rates at the next Fed meeting.  Today's T-Index closed at -99.  Today (Monday) the market experienced a sharp down move erasing last weeks small gain. We were in the money market and missed the action.  Our P-Trend is calling for one more day of uncertainty (money market for Tuesday), then going long for Wednesday providing there are no significant happenings, we will be following along in the same direction with our trading.  Very strong anti-Bush criticism with 26 American diplomats signing a joint statement against the Bush foreign policy.  Expect to see troupe withdrawals timed for the elections.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: June 10, 2004

100% money market for Monday.  Probabilities favor the upside for Monday.  The expected amplitudes are small and our P-Trend (projected trend)  remains in a neutral condition through Tuesday.  Our T-Index is reading -110 this is a major improvement from the -127 just three days ago and the -179 as recently as May 13th.   This is a very rapid movement and a bet the next raise by the Fed will come this month.  Remember a positive T-Index is the Green light for the stock market on a long term basis. When the T-Index is positive it means pull backs are usually small and easily followed by continued growth.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  New long term forecast was posted May 31.  

Comments: June 9, 2004

100% money market for Thursday. 

More than one way to skin a cat as the old (and now rather insensitive) saying goes.  We were out of the market on Monday, but made up for it today as the buy and holds gave back more than half of Monday's gain. I have decided on a name for our Expected Trend indicator. I will be calling it the P-Trend for  projected trend, or predicted trend if you like.  In any case the P-Trend  moved us into  the money market  for Thursday and keeps us there on Monday (since the market will be closed Friday).  Our sample of similar conditions is too small to provide a good forecast of closing targets for Thursday. We did close within one and a half points of the Nasdaq 100 closing target for Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  New long term forecast was posted May 31.  

Comments: June 8, 2004

Short: 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Wednesday.

Mild but persistent strength underscores this market.  We hold our short position for Wednesday then move into the money market for Thursday in accordance with our Expected Trend indicator.  The markets will be closed on Friday in honor of former president Ronald Regan.  Closing targets on the S&P are 1134 and 1148 on the Ndx we have 1471 and 1515.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  New long term forecast was posted May 31.  

Comments: June 7, 2004

Short: 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Tuesday.  The small rally we suggested in Fridays report turned out to be a sizeable one.  Our Expected Trend indicators are now solidly short for the next two days and we are following suite moving out of the money market and into the Rydex Tempest and Venture index funds.  I do not expect to see a large drop, rather a consolidation after so many up days and Monday's spurt.  The T-Index with a slight improvement  is now at -127.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  New long term forecast was posted May 31.  

Comments: June 4, 2004

100% Money market for Monday.  I expect that this market phase is just about over.  I refer to the near steady, but small climb over the past two weeks.  Our Expected Trend indicator is calling a neutral day on Monday followed by a Short signal for Tuesday.  Today's strong employment report kept the market higher even though some selling came in late in the day.  Another weak rally might take place on Monday based on the small sample of similar days I have in my forecast. Our program has shown an overall negative influence since May 26th. when the S&P was about 1/2% lower, the Nasdaq 100 was mostly unchanged since then.  There is some improvement in the economy, but still very slow,  as reported through our T-Index now at -129.   We eagerly await the time the index will once again be positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  New long term forecast was posted May 31.  

Comments: June 3, 2004

Short, 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Friday.  The head of the CIA has left office for "personal reasons".  This is a heads up for more negative intelligence disclosures.  Once again we have limited data to support our probabilities and we will not project the closes of the S&P and NDX.  We are looking for a lower close as forecast by our Expected Trend indicator. Short for Friday then neutral once again for Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  New long term forecast was posted May 31.  

Comments: June 2, 2004

100% Money market for Thursday.  The market made another weak stab to go higher, with the S&P gaining about 4 points. The Nasdaq 100 lost about 4 points.  Over each of the past 9 days either the Nasdaq 100 or the S&P 500 went higher.  This has been a long run of short steps, and all long runs eventually end.  Our Expected Trend indicator is neutral for Thursday, and moved short for Friday.  These neutral days do not warrant giving price targets and the sample size for them is too low for reliability.  The T-Index  is making some headway climbing out of the extreme negative and is now at a -134.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  New long term forecast was posted May 31.  

Comments: June 1, 2004

100% Money market for Wednesday.  As we stated on Friday we stayed in the money market for Wednesday, but until the close it looked like we had a firm short signal for Thursday.  However that changed as the market closed with very little change for the day leaving us with another neutral Trend signal for Thursday. Probabilities are mixed for Wednesday, but the sample from which we draw our conclusions are too small to justify picking sides.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  New long term forecast was posted May 31.

Comments: May 28, 2004

100% Money market for Tuesday.  Another day in the money market for us.  Our Trend indicator is still fighting cross currents and gave us another neutral signal for Wednesday.  I do not have a hint as to where it will go from there.  Most neutral signals are not reliable enough to provide a forecast target closing price.  I wish you all a good long weekend you may want to check back as I will post a new long term forecast, probably on Sunday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: May 27, 2004

100% Money market for Friday.  Our Trend indicator is neutral for both Friday and Tuesday, so we are on the sidelines.  The T-Index is at -151.  The market has now gone up 6 days in a row and many cross influences continue to be at work. The S&P closed within a point of our up-side target on Thursday. We are not providing targets for Friday as our data set for similar conditions is too small to be accurate.   New Long term forecast will post over the weekend and will cover all the current hot items, interest rates, oil, politics etc as they relate to the stock market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: May 26, 2004

Short, 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Thursday.  Some cross influences will have an effect over the next few days.  The market has now gone up 5 days in a row, so traders will be ready to jump ship at any time. On the positive side going into Memorial day we can expect an upward bias.  A new automated charting program, still in the works is saying the market will be higher 4 trading days from now, and our Trend indicator is  negative for Thursday moving neutral for Friday.  We have taken a short position in line with our Trend indicator. Closing targets for the S&P on Thursday are 1106 and 1122 for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1419 and 1471. Our T-Index is sitting at -152, still very negative.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  A new long term forecast is very much overdue, but I think you will see the value in the old one posted January 2, 2004.

Comments: May 25, 2004

100% money market for Wednesday.  We picked up 4% on Tuesday as the markets did much better than expected.  I believe this up move is about over, perhaps with some carryover on Wednesday.   We moved into the money market, as we indicated in yesterdays comments our Trend indicator turned flat for Wednesday. The Trend calls for a down turn on Thursday.  The "out" type days are less reliable than the long or shorts as they are composed of more cross-currents.  Today marked the fourth up-day in a row.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1104 and 1120 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1420 and 1466.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  A new long term forecast is very much overdue, but I think you will see the value in the old one posted January 2, 2004.

Comments: May 24, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  On Monday the market managed a slight up move.  Our Trend indicator up for Tuesday has moved flat for Wednesday.  Signaling that just maybe this market is not going to break much above the 1098 level on the S&P which has kept it confined for over two weeks.  Closing targets on the S&P for Tuesday are 1087 and 1102. On the Nasdaq 100 we have 1397 and 1437.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  A new long term forecast is very much overdue, but I think you will see the value in the old one posted January 2, 2004.

Comments: May 21, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  Our Trend indicator is forecasting in a continued positive mode through  Tuesday.   We have reported this indicator since Jan 22.  It took us a while to split our trading 50% S&P index funds, and 50% Nasdaq 100 index funds, but had that been in effect since Jan 22 we would have showed about a 17% gain over that 4 month time period.  This includes the negative return during the last few weeks. Closing targets for Monday on the S&P are 1086 and 1100 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1389 and 1424.  As the time to turn over leadership to Iraq gets closer we should see more terrible things happen in that area. None of this will be good for the market.  Every scary event will give oil prices an additional kick and the market has never liked uncertainty.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  A new long term forecast is very much overdue, but I think you will see the value in the old one posted January 2, 2004.

Comments: May 20, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.  Sorry for the discrepancy between yesterdays 2 day forecast for Friday and today's actual forecast and position.  I caught a typo when I re-entered Wednesdays closing figures. So we are still long and our Trend indicator forecasts long for Monday also.  Closing S&P targets for Friday are 1082 and 1099, for the Nasdaq 100 1382 and 1430.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  A new long term forecast is very much overdue, but I think you will see the value in the old one posted January 2, 2004.

Comments: May 19, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday.  Good day turned a little negative.  Our Trend indicator model stayed positive for Thursday but moves neutral into Friday. (Thanks to those of you that sent in new names for our indicator.) Closing targets for the S&P are 1084 and 1097 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1378 and 1421.  Oil usage should start to decline in Europe and most probably remain flat in the US over the next decade. Consider that manufacturing is falling off and hybrid automobiles will improve gas consumption considerably.  Higher fuel costs will stimulate improvements in insulation on new homes. Within five years we should start seeing hybrid delivery trucks.  China and India will take up the slack in demand preventing any large price drops.  I would expect to see oil between $20 and $55 over the decade.  My only adjustment to this forecast would be a continued drop in the dollar which already accounts for most of the increase in the price of oil.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  A new long term forecast is very much overdue, but I think you will see the value in the old one posted January 2, 2004.

Comments: May 18, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday.  We had a suggestion to rename our Trend indicator.  I agree and am looking for a more appropriate name. For the short term I will continue to call it the Trend indicator, but am open to more suggestions. I acknowledge it is really a two day Forecaster, we shall see.  The indicator went positive for Wednesday and continues positive for Thursday.  Closing targets for the S&P for Wednesday are 1086 and 1102.  For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1390 and 1415.  Probabilities strongly favor an up day for Wednesday, but with a rather small to moderate move.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  A new long term forecast is very much overdue, but I think you will see the value in the old one posted January 2, 2004.

Comments: May 17, 2004

100% money market for Tuesday.  Monday's market started off lower on news of the assassination of the president of the Iraqi council ( the second council member to be assassinated).  It is obvious we are not leaving Iraq any time soon.  Removing a country head without a well thought out plan of replacement should be reason enough to fail "basic conquering 101" the required first course for potential aggressive world leaders.  How did George get to be president Jeb?  $40+ oil could also be weighing on the economically focused investor as the deficit will be heading further south as the new oil prices get tallied in.  Our Trend indicator, is in the money market for Tuesday, then turns positive again on Wednesday. Closing targets for the S&P for Tuesday are 1072 and 1093. For the Nasdaq100, 1362 and 1404.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  A new long term forecast is very much overdue, but I think you will see the value in the old one posted January 2, 2004.

Comments: May 14, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  The Nasdaq was the big loser today.  Unhappily for us it closed on our forecast closing target low (see yesterday's comments). Our Trend indicator moves from long on Monday into the money market for Tuesday.  The last three days that we were long the S&P has gained only a quarter point total.  Closing targets for Monday in the S&P are 1091 and 1104,  in the Nasdaq 100 we have 1379 and 1419.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  A new long term forecast is very much overdue, but I think you will see the value in the old one posted January 2, 2004.

Comments: May 13, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.  Some additional widening in the spread between the 90 day and 10 year notes pushing the T-Index to -179.  Near the lowest levels we have seen this past year.  Our Trend indicator continues positive into Monday. We are holding our long position.  Friday's closing targets for the S&P are 1090 and 1105. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1399 and 1451.  The Nasdaq 100 could have a sizeable rally.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  A new long term forecast is very much overdue, but I think you will see the value in the old one posted January 2, 2004.

Comments: May 12, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday.  From the closing figures it looked like a very dull market day, but it was a wild ride.  The Nasdaq fell 3% prior to the recovery.  I believe the primary cause of the weakness was the decapitation of the American in Iraq.  Forecasting can never take into account radical happenings.  Today's action brought the T-Index to -168. This is not a normal level and continues to reflect the problems in the economy.  Our Trend indicator stays positive through the end of the week.  We hold our long position.  Targets for Thursday's S&P close are 1091 and 1106, with the Nasdaq 100 close showing 1393 and 1442.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  A new long term forecast is very much overdue, but I think you will see the value in the old one posted January 2, 2004.

Comments: May 11, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity.  We moved long at the close of today's trading in accordance with our Trend indicator.  The trend remains long for Thursday also.  The probabilities and amplitudes for the S&P are very favorable the probabilities are neutral for the Nasdaq 100.  Wednesday's closing targets are 1088 and 1103 for the S&P and 1408 and 1448 for the Nasdaq 100.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: May 10, 2004

Money Market for Tuesday.  Monday the market took a fall. Our Trend indicator stays in the money market a second day for Tuesday, then turns up and goes long for Wednesday. The market should stabilize some on Tuesday.  Probabilities are more positive for the S&P than for the Nasdaq 100, but not by much.  Historical  down side amplitudes are greater than up-side movements under these similar conditions.  S&P's closing targets for Tuesday are 1078 and 1095. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1378 and 1410.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: May 7, 2004

Money market for Monday.  Monday's  probabilities are positive, but they were derived with a small sample size making them unreliable.  We moved to the money market in sync with our trend indicator and await a clearer signal.  Our trend indicator did well this week and we showed a good gain. The trend continues to be inconclusive for Tuesday.  We will take a position later in the week when things become more clear.  Today's strong job report came against continued agitation and unrest on the war front. "How to win friends and influence people".   Dale Carnegie, we need you! This is required reading in some occupations, maybe it should be required for government service.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: May 6, 2004

Short, 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Friday.  The upturn did run out of steam as traders believed that nothing good can come of the job report.  A large gain may signal a large interest rate hike and small gain might mean the economy has faltered.  Our Trend indicator, negative for Friday is neutral for Monday and we will pull into the money market for the weekend.  If the market falters on Friday the move could be sizable while the potential for upside gain looks minimal.  Closing targets for Friday on the S&P are 1100 and 1121 for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1387 and 1441.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: May 5, 2004

Long, 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday.  Another small gain, but the upturn looks like it is about to run out of steam. Our Trend indicator, though positive for Thursday, is poised to turn down on Friday.  I hope we can maintain the up-move through the end of Thursday.  Closing targets on the S&P for Thursday are 1113 and 1130, on the Nasdaq 100 we have 1411 and 1461.  The higher oil prices are acting as a damper on the economy, on the other hand it is probably one of the factors preventing the FED from immediately raising interest rates. What continues to be strange is the large difference between the 90 day t-bills and the 10 year notes, which puts the T-Index in such a negative mode. Currently at -168 the t-index is at a level we last saw during the depression in the 1930's.  So readers, something is wrong with the economy.  If there were no problem this condition would not exist and our t-index would be in positive territory.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: May 4, 2004

Long, 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday.

The Fed pledged to lift rates only gradually, but not at this time. The market moved slightly higher.  We expect a continuation of the move for Wednesday,  our Trend indicator forecasts a continuation into Thursday.  S&P closing targets for Wednesday are 1112 and 1127, for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1406 and 1441.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 3, 2004

Long, 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  Our Trend indicator is looking positive for the next two days. We moved fully long in the Rydex dynamic funds. Our probabilities look strong, but much will be riding on the decoding of the monthly Fed message.  Tuesday's closing S&P targets are 1111 and 1127, while the Nasdaq 100 targets are 1398 and 1436.  The T-Index rests at a -166.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 30, 2004

100% money market for Monday.  Today's markets fell  more than we estimated, but in line with the negative probabilities.  Our Trend indicator continues non committal into Monday then goes positive for Tuesday.  We might see the turn around start late Monday.  Probabilities are still leaning to the negative for Monday. I will explain more of the workings of our Trend indicator in the coming weeks. Monday's closing targets are 1098 and 1114 for the S&P and 1381 and 1428 for the Nasdaq 100.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 29, 2004

100% money market for Friday.  Another non committal Trend indication extends Fridays money market signal into  Monday as our program keeps us out of the market waiting for a clearer direction. Both the S&P and Nasdaq 100 fell a little more than a point past Thursdays forecast negative close.  The drop should slow on Friday, but no strong buying is indicated. We will wait. Closing targets for Friday on the S&P are 1105 and 1122, on the Nasdaq 100 we have 1411 and 1449.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 28, 2004

100% money market for Thursday.  Our Trend indicator continues flat for Thursday and Friday.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1115 and 1131 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1430 and 1479.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 27, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday.  Our Trend indicator, up for Wednesday moves flat for Thursday.  The Nasdaq 100 looks like it might have some fire left for Wednesday.  If fell off after making a small attempt today.  Our T-Index is seated at a -160.  Wednesday closing targets for the S&P are 1130 and 1147 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1465 and 1505.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 26, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  No program is ever really finished when working with a stock market program as one always wants to do better.  Our Trend indicator is no exception, but since we have learned a long time ago that simpler is better when it comes to multi variable systems we have limited ourselves to trimming out the more ambiguous days leaving the program basically intact.  The adjusted trend indicator will now be "out" of the market [ in the money market] about 25% of the time.  Our Trend indicator is long for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Using only only our Trend indicator we find our closing S&P targets at 1128 and 1143. The Nasdaq 100 targets are 1469 and 1493.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 23, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  Our  Trend indictor continues positive into Tuesday.  I am putting the finishing touches on this indicator to provide us with some "out" or "money market" days when the trend is not clearly defined.  I will also add a section on this indicator as it is becoming a very important vehicle for us.  Target closes for the S&P on Monday are 1131 and 1149 for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1480 and 1512.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 22, 2004

100% money market for Friday.  Investors rushed to buy stocks they shunned two days earlier.  All of a sudden earnings forecasts were important.  Our Trend indicator, though still long through Monday, is indicating that a one day pause may be prudent. The probabilities are only slightly positive, we may see the Ndx back off after an early run up on Friday.  Target closes for Friday's S&P are 1132 and 1158 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1464 and 1506.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 21, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday.  Our Trend indicator is still out-performing our daily signal by a wide margin and we are moving more towards fully utilizing its potential. Trend indicator continues to be long through Friday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 20, 2004

Short: 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Wednesday.  After a well behaved positive opening the market took Mr Greenspan's speech to indicate higher interest rates ahead sooner rather than later and sent the markets sharply lower.  A correction is in order regarding Wednesdays Trend indicator as it is negative, not positive as previously reported.  However the up-trend resumes on Thursday.  Closing targets for the S&P for Wednesday are 1108 and 1125 for the Ndx we have 1405 and 1453. Our T-Index closed at -164.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: April 19, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  With only a 50/50 chance as taken from our posted probabilities we can't strongly support our long position for Tuesday.  The potential amplitudes for the Nasdaq 100 however do favor the upside.  A few minutes prior to the close the signals were much stronger.  Tuesday's closing  targets for the S&P are 1129 and 1143.  For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1459 and 1497.  T-index sits at -169 a red flag indicating that all is still not well with the economy.  Our Trend indicator remains positive into Wednesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: April 16, 2004

100% Money market for Monday.  For the past three days the S&P and Nasdaq 100 have moved in opposite directions.  This happens less than twice a year on average.  In a mixed market like this it is best to stay in the money market.  Our Trend indicator remains positive into Tuesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: April 15, 2004

100% Money market for Friday. Even probabilities and slightly negative on the amplitude of a potential move for the S&P for Friday.  The Nasdaq 100 has even amplitudes and positive probabilities.  Our Trend indicator remains positive into Monday.  Early trading in the after-markets on Thursday is negative so we may see a weak opening with a recovery in the Nasdaq by the close.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: April 14, 2004

Short: 50% Tempest, 50% money market for Thursday.  Although the final figures gave us a short in the Nasdaq 100 as well as the S&P we were unable to make the Nasdaq trade due to time constraints.  Wednesday's market was split with the Nasdaq 100 up a little and the S&P lower, this fell inline with our forecast probabilities.  Our Trend indicator, short for Thursday, has gone long for Friday it could mean that this phase of the drop may be over after Thursday's close.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: April 13, 2004

100% money market for Wednesday.  When is good news for the economy bad news for the stock market?  ans: Today.  With fears of rising interest rates starving off the new strength in the economy the market faltered.  Our Trend indicator, positive for Wednesday has turned negative for Thursday.  Our daily signal was positive, but with the probabilities leaning in both directions we chose to remain on the sidelines till we get a clearer picture.  I would guess that the market will gain back about half of today's loss for Wednesday, followed by a resumption of today's fall for Thursday.  Target closes for the S&P are 1123 and 1135 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1451 and 1493. The T-Index moved lower to -167.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: April 12, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  We have high probabilities for another small gain in the markets for Tuesday.  Our very powerful Trend indicator is strong through Wednesday.  Daily signal agrees and we stayed fully long for Tuesday.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1141 and 1154 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1475 and 1514.  T-Index remains a poor -163. This indicates that deflation is still a concern.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: April 8, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  Markets will be closed on Friday for Good Friday.  Yesterday's forecast was a perfect match for today's market (see below), wish we could do that all the time.  For Monday we are fully long as the daily signal falls inline with our Trend indicator.  The Trend indicator, by the way, continues positive into Tuesday.  We introduced the Trend indicator on January 22nd of this year and since that time it has correctly forecast the S&P  (a full day in advance) for a gain of +9.1%. compares to the -0.4% drop in the index over the same time frame. Using it on the Nasdaq 100 it shows a gain of +13.5% with the actual index dropping 2.8%.  Keep your eye on this exciting tool while we are demonstrating it for free.   Closing targets for the S&P for Friday are 1134 and 1147. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1473 and 1511. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: April 7, 2004

100% Money market for Thursday.  Our Trend indicator remains positive into Friday. Short term signal is neutral with the S&P a bit weaker than the Nasdaq.  More later...

Comments: April 6, 2004

Long:  50% Titan, 25% Velocity, 25% money market for Wednesday.  The aftermarket started off in a negative direction.  Our signals are positive once again and the probabilities for the S&P look very promising.  Our Trend indicator is now positive into Thursday.  We find ourselves shifting direction quite a bit in this market. Closing targets for the S&P are 1141 and 1155, for the Nasdaq 100, 1482 and 1517.  I expect small movements overall, but the aftermarket looks bad.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: April 5, 2004

Short: 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Tuesday. After a dull start the market staged a decent rally late in the afternoon.  I suspect that that will be the last of the up-move for a while.  Both our daily indicator and our Trend indicator point  lower with our Trend indicator pointing down going further into the week.  S&P closing targets for Tuesday are 1140 and 1158.  For the Nasdaq 100 we see 1484 and 1525.  Our T-Index has also weakened, dropping to -163.  This is close enough to our poorest readings over the last few years, to be worrisome at this late point in time.  By now we would have expected to see a resumption to a more normal type yield curve.  I take this as a warning of bad things ahead and more problems in corporate America.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: April 2, 2004

100% money market for Monday.  Our program gained about 3% for the week, following a similar gain for the previous week.  Combining our daily signal with our Trend indicator has worked exceptionally well.  The probabilities for Monday are rather even, however the potential amplitude of a drop in the Nasdaq looks much greater than the potential gain.  For Tuesday our Trend indicator, positive for Monday, turns negative.  Friday's large positive move in the stock market was offset by a drop in the bonds as the 10 year note jumped. This has pushed our T-index to -154 a very large one day drop which is not a positive sign for the economy.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: April 1, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.  This is the third day we have been out of sync with the market.  Friday will be influenced by the job data. Our Trend indicator is positive through Monday.  Thursdays rise was a cautious one Closing targets for Friday's  S&P are 1126 and 1139. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1438 and 1475.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 31, 2004

Short: 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Thursday. Our daily signal is short for Thursday.  The Trend index, short for Thursday has turned back long for Friday.  We have gone fully short and expect a small drop to about 1116 on the S&P and 1417 on the Nasdaq 100.  A peek at the T-Index shows a -135 this indicates that the small recovery we saw in the index earlier in the month has stalled.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 30, 2004

Long: 25% Titan, 25% Tempest for Wednesday.  The market spent most of the day barely under water with a mild surge during the last hour of trading.  This small surge should carry into Wednesday and will most likely mark the top for this week.  Our Trend indicator, long for Wednesday, has turned negative for Thursday.  Expect some early gains with some give-back in the afternoon.  Moves could be large. Target closes for the S&P are 1122 and 1139, for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1435 and 1482.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 29, 2004

74% money market, 13% Venture, 13% Tempest for Tuesday.  I expect another pause at this point, and a possible down day.  We took a small negative position.  Our Trend indicator however, remains long through Wednesday.  Monday's market well outpaced our expectations, and as I suggested on Friday, the last few minutes of trading have not been very indicative of the next day's trading as far as our signals are concerned.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1114 and 1130, for the Nasdaq100 we have 1418 and 1455.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 26, 2004

Long: 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Monday. We have adjusted our trading direction  to be a combination of our daily signal and our Trend indicator.  Since we get an indication of probable direction a day in advance with the Trend indicator we then just need to figure our % of trade from 0% to 100%.  This still leaves us with some trading days where the market changes enough in the last few minutes to change the signal and that is what happened Friday afternoon. As a result the final signal was 100% money market, we however are positioned long. From our experience these last minute changes on average have not been very bad for us.  From the charts we can make two cases the stronger case leans to a sharply lower week.  We will however play it day by day and our Trend indicator is positive into Tuesday.  Closing targets for the S&P for Monday are 1098 and 1113 for the Nasdaq 100, 1390 and 1425.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 25, 2004

100% Money market for Friday. It isn't often that we have a + 4.75% day in our account.  I was expecting a small up day. With both the signal and Trend going in the same direction it paid off to increase our exposure to 100%.  For Friday however we find the daily "signal" calling for a "short" position.  The Trend indicator continues positive into Monday ,  I am looking for a pause and then a resumption of our up side position.  Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1102 and 1118.   For the Nasdaq 100 we are looking for 1399 and 1436.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 24, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday. With both our Trend indicator and daily signal long we moved fully into the Long Rydex dynamic funds.  The expected amplitudes are not very large, but the probabilities look good. Target closes on the S&P500 are 1085 and 1099 on the Nasdaq 100 look for 1368 and 1405.  Expect a small up-day.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 23, 2004

Suggested position "money market" for Wednesday. The markets last few minutes of trading changed our daily signal to "short" and when combined with our optimistic Trend signal we would normally move out of the market, but we were caught long.  The probabilities do not look too bad and the last few days should have taken most of the sting out. So we may not see to much down side on Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 22, 2004

Long 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Tuesday.  Another bad day for the market.  For the last three down days our daily indicator has out performed out Trend indicator as they indicated opposing directions. For Tuesday they agree and are pointed higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 19, 2004

Long 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Monday.  We continue optimistic along with our Trend indicator which is positive through Tuesday.  The Trend indicator turned positive on March 9th and has remained positive for over a week. Our daily signal is mildly negative for Monday.  Target S&P closes based on the Trend show 1099 and 1122, for the Ndx we have 1380 and 1424.  I expect to see more market improvement as the week goes on.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 18, 2004

Long 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Friday. Thursday's small drop should be a positive for Friday's market.  The probabilities are mixed with the Nasdaq 100 looking strong. Our Trend indicator continues in a positive mode through Monday.  Target closes for the S&P are 1115 and 1130 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1402 and 1441. T-index is creeping back down to -131.  We haven't posted a long term forecast and it will probably be at least two weeks before I can get to it.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 17, 2004

Long 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Thursday.  Our Trend indicator remains positive through Friday.  We introduced our Trend indicator January 23 of this year and in that short time it shows actual forecast gains of 8.5% using the S&P and giving the investor a full one day lead time.  It was correct about 73% of the time.  Keep your eye on this one, but like every other method we can't guaranty it will continue to perform as well into the future. Target closes using the Trend are 1118 and 1137 for the S&P and 1411 and 1449 for the Nasdaq100.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 16, 2004

Long 37% Titan, 37% Velocity for Wednesday.  Improved signal and continued positive Trend indicator enables us to increase our allocations. The forecast is for a mild up move on Wednesday. The Trend continues positive through Thursday. Our T-Index is also a bit improved at -120.  The Fed has not changed its tune very much and indicated that the risk of deflation was about equal to the risk of inflation.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 15, 2004

Long: 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Tuesday.  The Trend indicator is looking positive through Wednesday.  We are holding our long position.  Our daily signal is also positive.  I believe we should have a few days of going higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 12, 2004

Long: 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Monday.  I expect Monday to be more of a "think-about-it" day with investors reflecting on this pasts week's sudden drop.  Both amplitudes and probabilities are positive by a small amount.  Our very successful Trend indicator gained 0.9% for the week using the S&P.  We will be placing more emphasis on this indicator as we move forward.  The Trend is looking positive through Tuesday.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1114 and 1132 for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1412 and 1452.  The T-Index our best indicator of economic strength remains a sluggish and deflationary -127.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 11, 2004

Long: 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Friday.  Another day where the market deteriorated as the day wore on.  We reduced our position, but we are holding long.  The Trend indicator is down only about 1/3 of one percent for this week correctly forecasting Tuesday and Wednesday.  This indicator has very few parameters and therefore more stable over time. We will be relying on this indicator more in the future. Our Trend indicator remains long through Monday. New closing targets based on the Trend indicator put the S&P at 1096 and 1118. The Nasdaq 100 at 1384 and 1425.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 10, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday.  Wednesday started off as expected, but the drop later in the day caught me by surprise.  We have increased our long position. Our Trend indicator which turned up for Thursday remains positive for Friday. Our daily signal stayed positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 9, 2004

Long: 25% Titan, 25% Velocity, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Looks like the down spell may be over for a while.  Our Trend indicator is moving back up for Thursday and Our next day signal is strong enough for us to switch directions to the upside for Wednesday.  We are now 50% long.  Another bright spot is the drop in long term interest rates which moved our T-Index to -124 continuing its recovery.  The lower rates may signal one more round of refinancing to keep the consumer buying on track as the capital spending of corporations improves.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1132 and 1149. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1417 and 1463.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 8, 2004

Short: 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Tuesday.  With our Trend indicator extending its negative position into Wednesday and no positive news from the daily signal we see a good chance of the markets being lower over the next two days.  We are now fully short the market.  The S&P climbed briefly this morning before stumbling. The Nasdaq is showing a much weaker overall pattern.  We have made some adjustments to the way we are calculating our targets and these new values for the S&P show a target closing low of 1134 and closing high of 1155.  For the Nasdaq 100 we see a target low of 1406  and target high of 1455. Hang on could be a wild ride. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 5, 2004

90% Money market, Long 10% Velocity for Monday.   As the market closed our signal weakened from "Money market"  to Sell.  Our Trend indicator continues to do an outstanding job and has turned negative for Tuesday.  My feeling at this point is that we will see deterioration in the market during the week. On the longer term positive side our T-Index has improved to a -133.  Although this is still a poor economic reading, it is the best we have seen since early July we are still, most probably, at least six months away from clear sailing.  Target closes for Monday in the S&P are 1146 and 1162. In the Nasdaq 100 we see 1448 and 1488.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 4, 2004

50% Money market, long 35% Titan, 15% Velocity. Our Trend indicator remains positive through Monday, but I don't expect a straight up climb.  We have reduced our exposure for Friday's market.  We have a "money market" signal in our daily indicator and I expect a strong reaction to the job data release.  Very possibly it could be negative but with the markets recovering on Monday.  The Nasdaq looks to be the more vulnerable.  Friday closing targets for the S&P are 1148 and 1161.  Targets for the Nasdaq 100 are 1460 and 1495.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 3, 2004

Long 40% Titan, 40% Velocity for Thursday.  Stronger signals for Thursday. Both S&P and Nasdaq signals have probabilities and expected amplitudes leaning in the same positive direction.  This is supported by our Trend indicator which continues positive through Friday.  From our point of view we should have a good day and we too a stronger long position. There seems to be a focus on job data being released on Friday and it would seem to be good. There might, in that case, be another reason for an up-move Thursday  prior to release of the Friday data. Target closes for Thursday in the S&P are1143 and 1160.  In the Nasdaq 100 we have 1446 and 1490.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 2, 2004

75% Money market, long 25% Titan for Wednesday.  Very mixed signals, but the Trend indicator continues positive through Thursday.  Both the S&P and the Nasdaq 100 closed within one point of our target lows on Tuesday.  Target closes for Wednesday are1141 and 1159 on the S&P and 1145 and 1491 for the Nasdaq 100.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: March 1, 2004

Long, 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Tuesday.  Long signal for Tuesday.  Our Trend indicator extends its positive forecast through Wednesday.  With both in the same direction we increased our position to 25% in each fund.  Target closings for the S&P are 1148 and 1163. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1472 and 1514.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 27, 2004

78% Money market, Long, 22% Titan for Monday.   We got our flat day in the S&P on Friday.  Our Trend indicator moves fully long through Tuesday.  Monday's daily signal calls for the money market.  We have shifted our long position into the S&P (Titan).  The T-Index maintained its level at -144.  I see a very good chance that the S&P will try to push past today's high of 1151.68.  With our trend index showing positive for the next few days it should succeed.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 26, 2004

78% Money market, Long, 11% Titan, 11% Velocity for Friday.  Mixed signals for Friday.  The Trend indicator continues long into Monday, but our daily signal is mildly short.  We reduced our exposure and maintained a small long position as the Trend is working very well and the movements are very small.  The target closes are overshooting their marks due to the lower than normal volatility.  Here are the unadjusted estimates for closes on the S&P, 1136 and 1152, on the Nasdaq100 1452 and 1493.  Regarding the Financial times report on US Senator's personal stock portfolios.  They found that first time senators showed and average of out performing the market by 20% per year for the past 5 years.  For all senators the average was 12%.  This is a very sad comment on the general level of corruption and insider trading among our elected officials.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 25, 2004

Long 33% Titan, 33% Velocity for Thursday.  The Trend indicator continues to be in sync with the market and forecasts an upward direction through the remainder of the week. It is still running half strength, but with the daily signal positive we maintain our position. Closing targets for the S&P are 1138 and 1152. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1452 and 1499.  Today's Financial Times had an article on how well US Senators have done in the stock market relative to the indexes, more on this tomorrow.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 24, 2004

Long 33% Titan, 33% Velocity for Wednesday.  Hopefully we have seen the last of the down-swing for a few days. Our Trend indicator, which continues to behave very well, is now looking up for Wednesday and Thursday. Not full strength, but aligned with our daily signal for Wednesday which we like to see and have increased our long position. The T-Index continues to slowly improve, so all is well going into mid week. Target closes on the S&P are 1132 and 1148. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1442 and 1497.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 23, 2004

Long 18% Titan, 9% Velocity for Tuesday.  We maintain our long position going into Tuesday.  Recently our daily indicators have not been in sync with our Trend indicator.  We are bucking a fully short trend indicator so we have only a small long position.  The S&P has shown four down days in a row, but the drops have been very small.  The Trend going into Wednesday has turned long so I expect an upturn late Tuesday or Wednesday.  Our T-index has climbed above the -150 mark and now stands at -148. This is slow progress from the negative -178. If it continues gaining at the same rate from year end it will take another 9 months to go positive.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 20, 2004

Long 18% Titan, 9% Velocity for Monday.  The market is making very little headway.  Our signal for Monday is up, but do not expect too much since we find our Trend indicator going from mildly negative on Monday to full negative on Tuesday.  So most probably a small up-tick on Monday will lose ground on Tuesday.  Closing targets on the S&P are 1136 and 1154, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1457 and 1503.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 19, 2004

Money market 91%, Tempest 9%.  Our signal was a weak short going into the close and worked its way to a full money market  position at the close.  Our Trend indicator which turned positive for Friday turned back down for Monday so we continue in a down trend the indicator called on Feb 12th.  Closing targets on the S$&P 500 are 1138 and 1156 on the Nasdaq 100 we have 1451 and 1506. With the signals very mixed we don't have much to go on for Friday.  If we get a short signal for Monday, it would support our Trend indicator and we could see the start of a more serious down side.  We will know more by Friday's close.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 18, 2004

Long: 19% Titan for Thursday.  There is a change in our Trend  indicator for Friday when we see it turn from a weak negative to a weak positive.  Signal for Thursday is positive and we remain in our small long position.  Our T-Index is at -152 not moving very much.  Target closes for the S&P are 1144 and 1161 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1481 and 1532.  If we look at the long term charts we can expect resistance at the peaks of Dec 2001 to Jan 2002.  The highs in the S&P were 1173 and in the Nasdaq 100 we saw 1710.  We should test the S&P highs in the near future.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 17, 2004

Long: 19% Titan for Wednesday.  our signal is long, but our  Trend indicator continues negative into Thursday.  Under these conditions we do not expect much carry through to the upside and most if any gain should be limited to the morning.   With the Nasdaq more vulnerable to correction we moved into the S&P still taking only a small position.  Target closes for the S&P 500 are 1149 and 1166. For the Nasdaq 100 use 1489 and 1530.  Finally we hear that internet service providers are considering levying "postage fees" on huge amounts of commercial e-mail.  Excellent idea, as spam is very costly to us all and this would reduce the parasites to a dribble.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 13, 2004

Long: 9% Titan, 9% Velocity for Tuesday.  The markets are closed on Monday. Our signal gained strength at the close.  From an opposing point of view our Trend indicator remains negative into Wednesday indicating to me that any upturn on Tuesday would be a mild one.  Our target closes for Tuesday for the S&P are 1138 and 1157, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1469 and 1508.  As we look ahead  I am developing a more favorable attitude towards the economy, while finding the high valuations less favorable for a sustained rally in the market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 12, 2004

Short 18% Venture for Friday.  Our Trend indicator continues to show  a weak negative through  Tuesday with Monday being a holiday.  The signal for Friday also shows some minor weakness but the aftermarket is showing strength.  We took a small short position.  Targets for Friday's S&P close are 1144 and 1161 for the Ndx we have 1479 and 1519.  Our T-Index is -157 so the progress seems to have stalled.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 11, 2004

Long, 10% Titan, 20% Velocity for Thursday.  I believe that we should see more upside follow through in the Nasdaq as the S&P today joined the NYSE in making new highs.  Even if the Nasdaq 100 doesn't make a new high over the next few days it should make a decent attempt.  Our Trend indicator which shows a strong up trend for Thursday has moved to a weak negative for Friday. Our target closes for the S&P on  Thursday are 1151 and 1167.  For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1501 and 1534.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 10, 2004

Long,  10% Titan, 10% Velocity for Wednesday.  Our Trend index is improving from mildly positive on Wednesday to fully positive on Thursday.  If our daily signal continues in a positive mode we should see a strong climb at the end of this week.  Targets for the S&P for Wednesday closes are 1140 and 1154 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1482 and 1520.  A look at the charts shows that a new high was made in the NYSE index today. The S&P is about 1% away and the Nasdaq 100 3.5%. These should be attainable numbers, but I can't read very much into the patterns.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 9, 2004

100% money market for Tuesday.  Our signal shows slight weakness, and the Trend is mildly positive going into Wednesday.  The combination leaves us without a reason to take a position so we moved 100% into the money market and await a more clear cut opportunity. The target closes for the S&P are 1130 and 1149, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1467 and 1510.  Our T-Index continues to show slight improvement it is now at -153.  I don't expect very much in way of a definite direction until late in the week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 6, 2004

Long 22% Titan for Monday.  Friday was a very good day for us, we increased our position in line with the strong probabilities and potential size of the move as forecast by our program and closed the day up over 2.5% giving us a gain for the week.  Our Trend continues to be mildly positive into Tuesday.  Our T-Index is -156 this is showing a small amount of improvement.  What is more promising for the economy is the readings we are receiving from our in-house indicator that we generate from our separate Engineering equipment business. We have a sharp pick up in interest which will result in increased capital spending over the first and second quarter of this year, this will lead to an improvement in the job figures over the same time frame.  How this plays out over the full year is still in question and we will touch on that subject in our next long term view posting.  Target closes for the S&P for Monday are 1137 and 1151.  For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1479 and 1517. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 5, 2004

Long: 22% Titan, 44% Velocity for Friday. We have a very strong signal for Friday in line with the Trend which remains positive into Monday.  Target closes for the S&P are 1122 and 1138 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1446 and 1493.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 4, 2004

Short: 18% Venture, 12% Tempest for Thursday.  Wednesday's market caught us by surprise. The initial thrust down may have already played out and we may see a jump for Thursday.  Our signal is showing some continued downward movement so we reduced our exposure and reversed direction. S&P target closes are 1113 and 1138. The Nasdaq 100 targets are 1430 and 1497.  T-Index showed mild improvement to -157.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 3, 2004

Long 36% Velocity, 24% Titan for Wednesday.

The aftermarket is telling us we are headed the wrong way for Wednesday as the Nasdaq 100 is down .8% as of this writing. Our Trend continues positive through Thursday and our next day signal is also positive.  Looks like the Terrorist threat, and Cisco's lower than expected earnings are weighing on the market. Our targets for the S&P are 1132 and 1144 for the Nasdaq 100 they are 1478 and 1519.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Feb. 2, 2004

Short: 10% Venture for Tuesday.  Although the final signal looks very negative we had an indecisive day and our Trend is holding positive at least through Wednesday. We took a smaller than usual negative position due to the positive influences.  Tuesday targets are 1127 and 1143 for the S&P and 1462 and 1507 for the Nasdaq 100.  T-Index holds at a poor -161.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 29, 2004

Long: 20% Titan, 25% Velocity, 55% money market for Monday.  Our Trend  forecast an upturn for Monday and continuing through Tuesday.  Our short term signal is positive so with the help of the Trend we have increased our long position.  Government reports show that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 4% for the last three months of the year, down from the forecast but not bad.  There is a problem in the consumer section as personal disposable income fell .5% and the savings ratio slid from 2.3% to 1.5 %. Near a record low and far short of the average 7.6%.  Business investment seems to have picked up which should lead to increased employment. Over all mixed signs.  Target closes for the S&P for Monday are 1126 and 1143. Targets for the Nasdaq 100 are 1475 and 1521.  The T-Index sits at -162.  This negative reading indicates that nothing is really changing in the economy, this number needs to go positive before we are out of the woods.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 29, 2004

Long: 10% Titan, 10% Velocity, 80% money market for Friday.  Our Trend  forecast an upturn for Monday. While our daily signal has already gone positive.  We took a long nibble for Friday.  The T-Index is at a -160 not showing much of a recovery.  Closing targets are 1129 and 1140 for the S&P and 1474 and 1519 for the Nasdaq 100.  After some early friskiness interest rates held firm.  It should be noted that the 10 year rates were higher earlier in the month than they are now.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 28, 2004

100% money market for Thursday.  Mr. Greenspan put the lid on the market today marking the end of ongoing low rates.  Our Trend continues to forecast a down draft through the end of the week.  Our daily signal turned a weak positive and we moved into the money market. S&P closing targets for Thursday are 1120 and 1137 for the Nasdaq 1000 we have 1468 and 1514.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 27, 2004

Short: 10% Tempest, 15% Velocity, 75% money market for Wednesday.  The Trend remains negative through Thursday.  Our daily signal is also negative so we are now looking for a continued fall. The more than 2% drop in the Nasdaq 100 was the most we have seen in over a month-and-a-half and may have taken most of the steam out of the drop.  S&P target closes are 1135 and 1153. On the Nasdaq 100 1486 and 1546.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 26, 2004

Long 10% Titan, 10% Velocity, 80% money market. After an early morning consolidation the market rallied on Monday. Our daily signal has turned positive, but with small amplitudes indicating some additional consolidation on Tuesday. The Trend for both Tuesday and Wednesday is  negative.  We took a small positive position.  I prefer to see both the Trend and daily signal in the same direction prior to a large commitment. The T-Index is still stalled at -166.  The FHA is proposing $0 down for first time buyers. It seems like a nice chartable thing to do if one does not consider the timing.  With double digit gains in real estate the past few years and interest rates almost certainly headed higher by election time, adding liquidity to the real estate market may be coming at a time when most if not all of the boom is over so who will be "it" when the music stops and home prices start to fall. Who will be stuck with those $0 down defaults?  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 23, 2004

Short for Monday. 20% Tempest, 20% Venture.  Friday closed exactly as forecast. Mild strength in the Nasdaq 100, mild weakness in the S&P.  I really like this program.  For Monday the Trend is positive turning negative by Tuesday. Our daily signal is somewhat negative and with the Nasdaq 100 ending its 3 day down swing on Friday it would seem to clear a path for a lower Monday and Tuesday.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1130 and 1150. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1500 and 1550. The Financial Times reported today that Global unemployment hit a record high last year.  For those of you seeking global economic information the Financial Times out of the UK is excellent, they have a US edition.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 22, 2004

100% Money market for Friday. Our new multi day program is showing better than expected results and has provided additional insight into the functioning of the overall market.  For now I will refer to the output as the Trend. Our Trend continues to be up, but our next day signal is mixed with the Nasdaq 100 showing mild strength and the S&P showing some mild weakness.  We moved fully into the money market having picked up small gains in each of the last four days.  I am confident that our Trend program will benefit our bottom line as we go forward.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1134 and 1154. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1506 and 1549.  Over the last 11 years the Nasdaq 100 has gone up 59% of the time after dropping three days in a row. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 21, 2004

Short: 25% Tempest, 45% Venture for Thursday.

A split decision for Wednesday with the S&P up and the Nasdaq down.  The Techs may be top heavy here, but I expect there will be more upside, maybe later in the week.  Our new multi-day program is running quite well and continues to be positive on the S&P, it has been "long" for 18 days to date.  Our Thursday closing targets on the S&P are 1135 and 1159. For the Nasdaq 100 we have  1511 and 1572.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 20, 2004

Short: 15% Tempest, 45% Venture for Wednesday. We increased our position in the Rydex Venture 100 fund from 35% to 45%. The Venture fund moves about twice as much as the Nasdaq 100, but in the opposite direction.  Our calculations show that both probabilities and expected amplitudes are running 2 to 1 for the downside.  Our closing targets on the S&P are 1128 and 1146 for the Nasdaq 100  we have 1521 and 1571. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 18, 2004

Short:  15% Tempest, 35% Venture for Tuesday. The markets are closed on Monday. Closing targets for Tuesday are 1131 and 1147 on the S&P and 1522 and 1569 on the Nasdaq 100. The T-Index closed the week stalled at -164. The dollar improved somewhat and forced gold prices lower. If you want to learn more about investing there is a very interesting book on international economics by Marc Faber called Tomorrow's Gold. Excellent chapter on manias and bubbles, and great insight into the flow on capital on  a global basis.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 15, 2004

Long: 15% Velocity for Friday,

The market recovered and closed mostly unchanged.  With the US economy shaky and the rest of the world not doing much better we are going to Mars.  I guess that will make people think about something else.  The spending should just start to heat up  when the baby boomers retire in about 6 years.  We may be headed into a round of tariffs.  China is imposing some on imports of steel because they have overcapacity. The European community is considering restricting imports of cotton. Tariffs are not good for the world economy and will lead to other tariffs and a slowing of world production.  Looking for small moves tomorrow most likely up. Target closes for S&P 1127 and 1138 for the Nasdaq 1514 and 1547.

 We are constructing a very nice program that will give a forecast of multiple days one to two days in advance. Very consistent over time. The transition is smooth with a money market day in between any change in direction. Most positions hold for a number of weeks.  Stay tuned for more on this product. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 14, 2004

Long: 30% Velocity, 10% Titan for Thursday.

Utt-oh.  Certainly looks like we are headed in the wrong direction for Thursday. The aftermarket is down significantly. Apparently it was sell on the news day for good earnings.  The Nasdaq 100 was off about 1% at the time of this writing.  Our target closes on the S&P are 1123 and 1139 with the Nasdaq 100 targets of 1511 and 1553.  I was encouraged as the yield on the 10 year note dipped below 4% for the first time in a while. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 13, 2004

Short: 30% Venture, 10% Tempest, 60% Money market for Wednesday.

There was mild weakness in the markets Tuesday. The situation left us with a mildly negative signal for Wednesday.  Our closing targets for Wednesday for the S&P are 1112 and 1128.  For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1497 and 1541. Our T-Index improved slightly to -165 as the slope of the interest rate curve flattened a bit.  The China craze is reaching bubble proportions, as their latest IPO of a cabbage grower was 1600 times over subscribed (FT report). Add to it that the last two farming related IPOs were tarnished by fraud, this is highly dangerous ground. With interest rates low, money is looking for a place to park and now it seems that high risk is not a problem.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 12, 2004

100% Money market for Tuesday. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P are showing positive probabilities, however the risk when combined with the average amounts up and down cancel the positive bias.  We remain in the money market. Our closing targets for Tuesday are S&P 1120 and 1133. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1519 and 1557. Our T-Index is at -172.

The dollar continues to fall against European currencies.  China's currency is pegged to ours so the prices of our imports of furniture, electronics, chips  and textiles will most likely continue to remain the same or drop in price as increases in China's productivity carry into the prices of their exports.  I expect to see more cars made in China.  Once "made in Japan" stood for shoddy products but now it stands for quality.  Expect to see a steady increase in the quality of Chinese goods as the manufacturers secure their positions.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 9, 2004

100% Money market for Monday.  Big move in the 10 year notes as the yield dropped to 4.086%.  This was in conjunction with further weakening of the dollar. The employment figures were worse than expected, but in line with what you would expect in a deflationary environment. Our T-Index sits at -174. This is not a level that would inspire confidence.  And confidence is what is needed if we are going to keep the dollar from falling further.  But a falling dollar is the plan coming down from the top. We are in an interesting climate, inflation in home prices and non-electronic imports, and deflation in electronics and consumer items.  High tech labor is being exported and there is a continuing shift to a more service based economy which doesn't create physical assets.  The stock market appears to be fully priced by historical measures and interest rates should continue to hold low till election time if the administration can exert enough influence.  The low rates should keep home prices high and keep the market propped up. As the government works to keep the short term rates low, the long term rates most likely will be forced higher by foreign selling, responding to the weak dollar.  This should set the stage for a stalling of home prices and the stock market.  For Monday the Nasdaq 100 appears to have more confidence and a positive bias. The S&P is showing weakness. Most likely they will both end the day in the same direction, but the mixed signal is our signal to stay in the money market. We closed on our downside S&P target Friday.  Monday's closing targets for the S&P are 1112 and 1131, for the Nasdaq 1499 and 1543.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 8, 2004

Short: 10% Tempest, 90% money market for Friday. The market should pause in here and we took a small short position in the Rydex Tempest 500 fund. This fund moves twice as much as the S&P 500 but in the reverse direction. Our signal is mildly negative.  Target closes for The S&P are 1122 and 1138 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1508 and 1549.  A small down day on Friday could lead to more selling on Monday, but we will wait to see how Friday's figures stack up. I am still expecting this rally to end with a blow off, but the moves have been steady and small.  Posted this week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 7, 2004

Long: 15% Velocity, 15% Titan  

Tiny up move in the S&P today with a better one on the Nasdaq. Thursday should see some additional but small gains. Small pull back in the Euro today, additional softening in the Euro could give this stock market more reason to go forward from here.  S&P closing targets are 1120 and 1135.  For the Nasdaq 100 look for 1497 and 1532.  Posted this week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan. 6, 2004

Long:  15% Velocity, 85% money market. 

Very toppy here so don't expect much on the upside for Wednesday. Target S&P closes are 1119 and 1129; for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1479 and 1516.  With the dollar falling so quickly Japan is having a hard time buying dollars to keep the yen from going  higher and pushing them (Japan) back into deflation.  We on the other hand may be seeing inflation in the form of higher prices for all substantial purchases, new homes, automobiles etc as the raw materials jump in value.  New home sales (not prices) have declined for the past three months. 

Comments: Jan. 5, 2004

Long: 10% Titan, 20% Velocity, 70% money market. 

Monday's strength was a surprise to us. It seems that those people that took a holiday were trying to make up for it.  Target S&P closes are 1116 and 1133; for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1478 and 1523.  Is this really a resumption of the 90's bull market?  I can't go along with that thought.  Bear market rallies can go a fair distance.  If you are riding it, keep your eyes open for the door. We have just posted our view on the declining dollar as part of our longer term forecast. 

Comments: Jan. 2, 2004

Short: 35% Venture, 20% Tempest, 45% Money market for Monday.  The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management, on Friday reported its monthly index of manufacturing activity for December. Showing a very positive and greater than expected 66.2 up from Novembers 62.8. The market jumped briefly then closed off for the day.   Closing targets for Monday on the S&P are 1098 and 1115.  For the Nasdaq 100 look for 1436 and 1485.  The interest rate spread widened lowering the T-Index to -174.  The Euro climbed once again against the Dollar.  What will the falling dollar mean for investing in 2004?  We have just posted our view as part of our longer term forecast. 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2001

For earlier comments made early in year 2001

For earlier comments made in year 2000

Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil