Daily Market Commentary

Comments: December 31, 2004,

Long: 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Monday.  The final ten minutes of trading took the wind out of our "long" signal and turned it neutral.  Our oil indicator turned negative, but the rise in volatility is positive.  The probabilities reflect the confusion. We will see how early Monday morning plays out.  The t-bills traded for a little while this morning bringing our T-Index to a corrected year close of +63.  Target close for Monday's S&P is 1205 and 1220, targets for the Nasdaq100 are 1593 and 1657.  This was a year where the dollar continued it's fall and oil ran wild.  There will be a new long term forecast posted over the weekend to reflect on the changes.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. And a Happy New Year everyone!

Comments: December 30, 2004,

Short: 10% Tempest, 10% Venture, 80% money market for Friday.  Our website was down for about 12 hours on Thursday due to a phone line problem in Northern California, it did not affect our trading.  The markets hardly moved on Thursday.  Our accounts squeezed out a tiny gain for the day, giving us five gains in five days, but no large winners.  The volatility has dried up making the market harder to read.  The market has become unemotional.  Our signal turned neutral on the close, after being negative most of the day, and our oil indicator is positive.  I do not expect to see much activity on New Year's eve.  Our T-Index closed the year at +60.  There will be a new long term forecast posted over the weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 29, 2004

Short: 20% Tempest, 20% Venture 60% money market for Thursday.  We reversed our position on a very strong Short signal.  The oil indicator has also gone negative.  The signals are now aligned with our intermediate term signal all looking for the market to head down.  If we get a sharp drop on Thursday the terrible tsunami's climbing death toll may be be the reason given.  This disaster is growing to a proportion that will impact the economies of many nations.  The IMF made a statement Wednesday  that the economic costs will be enormous.   Closing targets on the S&P are 1203 and 1222.  For the Nasdaq100 we have 1598 and 1637.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 28, 2004

Long 20% Titan, 20% Velocity, 60% money market for Wednesday.   Our oil indicator remains positive along with a weakened, but positive signal.  We reduced our exposure to 40% long.  Our T-Index closed at +62.  Long term rates remained unchanged.  Historically (last 14 years) the stock market has gone up 60% of the time the day after the long term rates were unchanged.  The markets, S&P and Nasdaq 100 both closed at the high of the day.  We are still concerned with year end transactions that we can not account for. So we are keeping our exposure down the last few days.  Closing targets on the S&P are 1201 and 1225, for the Nasdaq100 we have 1608 and 1645.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 27, 2004

Long: 25% Titan, 25% Velocity, 50% money market for Tuesday.  Mild market action should continue all week. Stronger market is projected for Tuesday.  Our signal is positive with good probabilities and a positive oil indicator.  We are still only partially invested going into the end of the year due to a tax influence and reduced trading that our program does not account for.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1200 and 1216 for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1590 and 1628. Continuing on my discussion on the Vix indicator; over the past 14 years the return on days following an increase in the Vix index has be over twice the return on days following a falling Vix, but there is more to it.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 23, 2004

Short: 25% Tempest, 25% Venture, 50% money market for Monday.  The markets managed to edge higher every day this week in spite of our intermediate term forecast for a shallow down turn.  That forecast remains in effect.  Our signal for Monday  is a "short" with the oil indicator in agreement.  I expect to see a continued lazy market until the players return to the table.  An interesting note regarding volatility and the VIX index.  That index is at its lowest point since the beginning of 1995.  A low Vix usually translates into small daily moves and small annual market moves.  Closing targets for the S&P for Monday are 1198 and 1216, for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1581 and 1633.  With a falling Vix these numbers would generally be overstating the actual close.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  And of course have a happy holiday!

Comments: December 22, 2004

Long: 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Thursday.  The year end trading has an effect on our forecast's reliability and we continue with reduced exposure.  We had four consecutive months of gains and are on the borderline this fifth month, December.  Our signal is mostly neutral with oil positive for Thursday and we took a small positive position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 21, 2004

Short: 30% Tempest, 30% Venture, 40% money market for Wednesday.  Signals are aligned "down" for Wednesday. Strong negative signal agrees with a negative oil indicator and intermediate term forecast.  The only real disagreement is Santa Claus, who may keep the market afloat a few extra days.  T-Index improved to +65. The 10 year notes are holding well below 4.5%  and that should keep real estate alive for a while helping the economy.  Trading the next few days should be light.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1194 and 1216. For the Nasdaq100 we see 1579 and 1626.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 20, 2004

50% money market, 20 % Velocity, 30% Tempest for Tuesday.  Another day of mixed signals. Our Signal is neutral, but we have a positive oil indicator and our intermediate term signal has turned negative. I have followed the probabilities and have gone short the S&P and long the Nasdaq 100.  The Nasdaq 100 has gone down 4 days in a row and should be ready for an up-day.  Our T-Index remains strong at +62.  Target closes for the S&P are 1185 and 1203, for the Nasdaq100 we have 1571 and 1616.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 17, 2004

***25% Tempest, 25%Venture, exit to money market at morning fix.  ***Friday was a normal trading day with abnormal activity at the close.  The Dow dropped about 23 points in the last 2 minutes of trading.  Similar drops in the S&P and Nasdaq 100, but not very great in the broader  Nyse.  It looked like what we would have called "painting the tape" (which generally makes the market look like it is headed in one direction when the larger money is about to go in the other direction). For example a large amount of money moved into adsk during the last minute of trading kicking the stock higher, It was previously announced that AutoDesk was once again added to the Nasdaq 100.   The late move in the indices caused our program to swing from Short to Long.  Generally we don't trust last minute swings, but we also do not like to remain in the market against the forecast direction so we will exit at the first fix. Luckily this type of market activity is rare.   For the week the S&P gained about 1/2% while the Nasdaq100 lost about 1/2%.  Our accounts did better gaining 2.9%, and we hope Monday doesn't do us too much damage.  Our intermediate term forecast turns down this coming week and indicates that we may be heading into a declining period that could last a few months.  The T-Index responding to interest rate changes closed at +61.  I noticed that lumber prices have declined considerably over the past few months, an indication that the construction boom may have peaked.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 16, 2004

100% money market for Friday.  Once more we have a neutral signal, this time the oil indicator is also neutral and the probabilities lean gently to the upside.  I expect a small rise as the most likely outcome.  The T-Index took a sharp drop to +62 as the near term interest rates fell and the long term rates climbed.  We will watch to see if this becomes a trend.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1194 and 1210, for the Nasdaq100 we see 1589 and 1625.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 15, 2004

70% money market, 30% Venture for Thursday.  We have another neutral signal, but this time the oil indicator has gone negative and the probabilities have gone more negative.  We took a small Short position using the Venture fund.  Interesting to see the interest rate drop, especially on the 10 year note.  Our T-Index closed at +69.  With the long term rates holding low, the real estate markets will be able to continue growing, helping the home building and material stocks for a while.  Our intermediate term stock market forecast shows strength through Monday, then it has a negative influence over a couple of months.  This is mostly countered by our T-Index which is positive and should remain positive over the same time period.  I believe the combined influences will cause the market to trend slightly lower.  For Thursday we have closing targets on the S&P of 1198 and 1215. For the Nasdaq 100 look for 1601 and 1640.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 14, 2004

100% money market for Wednesday. Our signal dropped off to neutral, while the oil indicator remained positive.  Overall it looks like there is not much to be gained on the up-side unless a wave of cheering for the FED hike comes in early AM.  Closing targets on the S&P are 1193 and 1208, for the Nasdaq 100 targets are1611 and 1642.  Both short and long term  Interest rates actually fell after today's Fed hike.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 13, 2004

Long, 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday. All signals are positive and increasing for Tuesday. We increased our exposure to 100%.  Looking at our intermediate term indicator it appears  that we will see a short term top somewhere over the next few days.   I expect some weakness later in the week.   Tuesday's probabilities are very strong and positive.  The T-Index closed at +67.  A solid number.  Tuesday's closing targets for the S&P are 1194 and 1206. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1606 and 1640.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 10, 2004

Long, 40% Titan, 40% Velocity, 20% money market for Monday.  Both our signal and oil indicators are looking for the market to go higher on Monday.  It is more a matter of lack of negative influences than any strong positive driving the market.  Our T-Index closed at +68.  More news came out on large lay-offs by a number of companies, but nothing to worry about (if it wasn't you). With the T-Index firmly positive reflecting a strong economic condition,  the high number of layoffs will enable the economy to grow without labor costs forcing inflation upon us.  Our intermediate term signal called this past week as a down week. (see Dec 3rd comment).  It is looking for the coming week to be choppy, yet higher.  But beware as more negatives are forecast for the weeks after that. Which means year end, January and deeper into the first quarter could work lower.  Any down turn should be minor even if it lasts a few months, since the T-Index should stay positive. Monday's closing targets for the S&P are 1183 and 1198. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1588 and 1626.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 9, 2004

100% money market for Friday.  Yesterday's comment was on the money.  The market plunged early morning only to fully recover later in the day even though oil was higher.   For Friday we have another negative signal, with our oil indicator once more on the positive side.  The current topping action is not as predictable day-to-day with conflicting influences and it is best to stay out.  Our data set was still too small for reliable probabilities. But I would lean to the down side.  The T-index closed at +68.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 8, 2004

100% money market for Thursday.   The market continues in a topping pattern.  We find a number of cross influences making trading more difficult. Today the market gained as oil fell. Oil has stepped back as the most important market influence, but could re-emerge at any time.  I prefer to see most of our indicators aligned in the same direction.  Our signal for Thursday is negative, but our oil  indicator is positive.  We did not have a large enough data set to provide probabilities.  The T-index closed at +69.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 7, 2004

50% Short, 30% Venture, 20% Tempest, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Although the market started to rally early on depressed oil prices, disappointing  news on November sales and the third month of large job cuts were too much to sustain the recent high levels on the indices.  What is a trillion dollars or two?  The news  on the cost of privatization of the social security system may have been another factor in today's decline.  Our signal for Wednesday turned sharply negative, our oil indicator moved to neutral and our intermediate term indicator, as we reported earlier, is looking for a down week.  The bright star is still the T-Index.  Closed at +65.  The markets  may go lower short term, but the economy is not in danger of inflation or deflation at this juncture.  Please let me know if you are having trouble updating our comments.  We do post every day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 6, 2004

50% long, 30% Velocity, 20% Titan, 50% money market for Tuesday.  I believe we are starting a topping formation and Tuesday should edge a little higher.  Our signal is barely positive, but we do have a positive oil indicator.  We reduced our exposure and as the oil indicator is more relevant to the Nasdaq100,  we are weighed in that direction.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1183 and 1200. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1596 and 1642.  The T-Index closed at +62.  Our T-Index was designed to interpret the slope of the interest rate curve and it seem to do a very good job of it.  As the slope flattens the T-Index will climb until it reaches +100 then as the curve continues to flatten our T-Index starts to retreat from the +100 level indicating that inflation is starting to be a problem.  Right now the index is telling us that there is no inflation problem and conditions are correct for a strong economy.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 3, 2004

100% long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  
We had a reduced exposure this past week since most of our signals were muddy.  Considering we were on the wrong side of the markets,  the limited exposure protected us from major damage.  For Monday we are fully invested, as our indicators are aligned and positive including the oil indicator.  Friday, weaker than expected job numbers held the market back but helped the bond market recover.  Our T-Index closed at +59. We have an interesting intermediate term forecasting program. It measures price changes in interest rates and stocks and is calling for next week to be lower, followed by a higher week, then followed by a month of decline. Lets see how it does.   New Long Term Projection was posted this week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 2, 2004

75% money market, Short: 25% Tempest for Friday.  It looks like we will suffer another small ding on Friday.  Our signal gave a weak short with the oil indicator looking the other way for a rally.  The oil indicator has be very "right" for a long time and is most effective on the Nasdaq 100.  We closed out our small Venture position and left the Tempest position ride.  Intel raised its quarterly revenue target after the bell and the after markets are up strong once again.  Employment figures will come out in the morning and they are expected to be higher.  Most likely the markets will close higher on Friday.  New Long Term Projection posted yesterday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 1, 2004

62.5% money market, Short: 25% Tempest, 12.5% Venture for Thursday.  Wednesday was a great day for the longs.  As we mentioned yesterday the primary direction is up. So we generally go with a reduced exposure when we go against the trend. We did increase that exposure a bit for Thursday as our signal got more negative.  Our oil indicator, which uses oil to forecast the stock market, remained flat.  Wednesday may have been a short term top for the market and we may find ourselves back in a trading range going into the end of the year. Our intermediate term indictor has given its first negative showing since going positive on August 23.   Thanks to those of you who took the time to comment on a possible early indicator. I am still open to hearing comments. info@stocmarket.com .  I posted a new Long Term Projection today.  Read it!  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 30, 2004

75% money market, Short: 25% Tempest for Wednesday.  We did not get the rally I was expecting on Tuesday and we could have a continuation of the weakness on Wednesday.  Our signal moved flat along with a flat oil indicator.  The probabilities are more negative for the S&P and we took a small position in the Tempest fund.  The T-Index closed at +56, perfectly normal for a strong economy.  So we must assume the primary (longer term) trend is to go higher.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1165 and 1182, for the Nasdaq 100 we look to 1550 and 1592.  I have received a number of inquiries over the years for an "early signal" service.  I would like to hear your views on the subject.  Our signals do not change that often after about 3:30 PM Eastern time, and  it may be possible to allow paid subscribers to get an early signal.  If there is enough interest we will look into it, so send us an e-mail with your thoughts.  info@stocmarket.com

Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 29, 2004

100% Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  Split market on Monday with the S&P down and Nasdaq 100 up.  Our T-Index closed lower at +55.  We have a strong signal for Tuesday and are fully invested on the up-side.  Wal-Mart was moaning about lackluster sales for Friday, and it was reflected in the market Monday.  I think what really happened was the improved economy allowed competitors to run full page ads in local newspapers with "door opener", specials.  Most shoppers ran to those other stores on Friday, but will be back to Wal-Marts on Monday for their on-going lower prices.  Don't cry for Wal-Mart.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1174 and 1190.  For the Nasdaq 100 1562 and 1604.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 26, 2004

Money market for Monday.   Once again we have a slightly negative trading signal, but this time our oil indicator has turned positive further clouding the expectations.  All this is based on a greatly reduced trading day so we stayed in the money market.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1171 and 1188, for the Nasdaq100 we have 1559 and 1593.  The only interesting move on Friday was in the long term treasuries which jumped to 4.24%.  Our T-Index edged lower to +59.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 24, 2004

Money Market for Friday.  We exited the market at the morning fix and cut our losses (see below).  Friday's signal is barely negative and our oil indicator is also aimed down.  The probabilities are mixed and overall very flat, so with Friday being a shortened day I chose to stay in the money market.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1174 and 1188. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1561 and 1602.  But these numbers will probably not be seen with the expected light trading.  Our T-Index closed at +60 signifying a healthy economy.  Have a happy Thanksgiving and I will chat with you on Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 23, 2004

 (money market) for Wednesday.  We got caught in the short  position due to a computer malfunction near the close and will move into the money market at the morning fix. [Overnight and early morning position is 75% short, 25% money market same as for Tuesday].  This is a rare occurrence but part of trading in the real world. I would prefer to be 100% in the money market.  Our signal is "neutral",  our oil indicator is "short" and we are headed into a pre holiday trading day.  We do not have enough data to provide probabilities or amplitudes for Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 22, 2004

75% short, 37.5% Venture, 37.5% Tempest, 25% money market for Tuesday.  The market overcame an early drop to close on the upside, gaining back a little more than half their Friday losses.  In the process we saw our signal become more negative and our oil indicator join in on the downside.  The probabilities are very one sided and negative and we increased our short position.  The bright spot continues to be the improving and already positive T-Index reflecting a strengthening economy along with the tendency for the markets to gain the few days prior to Thanksgiving.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1160 and 1187, for the Nasdaq 100 look to 1525 and 1597.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 19, 2004

50% short, 25% Venture, 25% Tempest, 50% Money market for Monday.  Our signal stayed negative for Monday, and our Oil indicator turned neutral. The probabilities and amplitudes,   though still negative, are less so and I believe we will find ourselves aimed to the upside later in the week.  Our accounts gained over 4% for this week and have done exceptionally well since we added our oil indicator, showing a gain of 18.6% since July 30 th of this year.  

Our goal has always been to continually improve our model and I feel we have made significant gains over the last four years.    Targets for Monday's S&P close are1159 and 1178.  For the Nasdaq 100 look to 1525 and 1568. Our T-Indicator closed out the week at +56 a gain of 6 points from last Friday. A positive T-Index means we have a strong economy, but what does it say about the dollar and gold?  More on this subject in the next long term forecast. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 18, 2004

50% short, 25% Venture, 25% Tempest, 50% Money market for Friday.  Our signal turned negative once again, but with the Oil indicator turning positive we reduced our exposure, since our best trades are those where we have full alignment.   The  calculated probabilities lean heavily to the down-side.   Our T-Index continues its climb and closed at +59.  This strength shows the economy is rapidly improving.  A strong economy will attract foreign investment and soon have a positive effect on the dollar.  Gold will be the loser.  Friday's target closes for the S&P 500 are 1170 and 1188 for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1543 and 1596.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 17, 2004

100% Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday.  The stock market was strong early on Wednesday, with the markets greatly overshooting our targets, then some back filling mid day.     Our signal is positive and the probabilities and amplitudes are all in the right direction, but our oil indicator stayed neutral.  Any gains on Thursday will probably be small with a retest of Wednesday's highs.  Our T-Index climbed to +57. Closing targets for Thursday for the S&P are 1174 and 1192.  For the Nasdaq 100 look for 1553 and 1591.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 16, 2004

100% Money market for Wednesday.

With a flat signal and flat oil indicator, and the combined probabilities and amplitudes only a little positive, we moved into the money market.  Our T-Index closed at  +55.  Closing targets for the S&P500 are 1169 and 1183.  For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1528 and 1566.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 15, 2004

100% Short: 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Tuesday.

Time for a market pause.  We have a "short" signal, supported by our very accurate oil indicator and backed up by strong negative probabilities with strong negative amplitudes.  We also, as mentioned in the November 11th comments, generally have some down days a few days after a Fed rate hike. On the positive side our T-Index is at +52 and climbing and the Future's market closed up 2 points on the S&P.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1170 and 1188, targets for the Nasdaq 100 are 1526 and 1576.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 12, 2004

100% Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  

Our Signal continues strong in the face of a normal post-rate-hike decline.  We are going with the signal one more day since it is once again backed up by our very accurate oil indicator.  Both the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 probabilities are strong at 2 to 1 favoring the up side, but we are only holding even on the amplitudes for the Nasdaq 100 and that index will most likely be the first to weaken.  I expect Monday's market to close with additional small gains.  With Tuesday backing off.  Our T-Index closed at  +50 indicating to me that any weakness next week will be short lived.  Closing targets for the S&P 500 are 1180 and 1192.  For the Nasdaq 100 we see 1541 and 1576.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 11, 2004

100% Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.  Thursday's S&P and Nasdaq 100 closed a little shy of target, but a good showing considering the recent volatility has be very low as mentioned in yesterday's comments.  Our signal gained strength today.  Both probabilities and the supporting average amplitudes are positive.  In addition our very reliable oil indicator has gone positive.  We should have enough strength left for one more up-day on Friday.   Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1167 and 1183.  For the Nasdaq 100 we look to 1531 and 1563. Taking a peek at what happens after a fed rate hike we show the market rising on the following day (like today) then a neutral day (like Friday), then two down days (Monday and Tuesday).  So be prepared for a down turn starting Monday or Tuesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 10, 2004

100% Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday. Today's "long" signal for Thursday is less complicated.  Both probabilities and potential size of move are favorable to the up-side.   Our exceptionally reliable oil indicator is neutral, so I expect a small move. Real volatility in the markets (as measured by the average of the absolute daily % changes) is back to the levels last see in the early to mid 90's. We have a slower moving market.  T-Index is now at +46.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 9, 2004

Long: 25% Titan, 25% Velocity, 50% money market for Wednesday.  We have a "long" signal, that has some complications.  The probabilities are leaning to the downside, but the potential for a strong move (in terms of size of the move) is towards the up side.  Our very reliable oil related signal is calling for the markets to go lower on Wednesday, but the FED meets on Wednesday and that throws more uncertainty into the mix.   We held our long position, but reduced our exposure.  Our T-Index strengthened to +49. Closing targets for the S&P are 1159 and 1176, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1509 and 1555.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 8, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  Positive signal,  good probabilities,  and support from our oil indicator, all good things and we took a full long position for Tuesday.  T-Index closed at +45 holding firm mid range.  Closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1159 and 1173 for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1498 and 1557.  We saw a rapid rise in interest rates from a week prior to elections.  I think they will continue to rise since our T-Index is giving an "all clear" signal and that should mean the economy will continue to heat up.  New long term forecast posted last Friday!!  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 5, 2004

Long: 25% Titan, 25% Velocity, 50% money market for Monday.  The market continued to roll on Friday.  It backed off intra-day but gained again to close higher.  Our signal is still flat with our oil influenced signal calling for more stock market gains on Monday.   The probabilities continue to show strength and we took a 50% long position.  Closing targets for Monday's S&P are 1155 and 1174, for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1512 and 1547. New long term forecast posted today!!  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 4, 2004

Short:  25% Tempest, 25% Venture, 50% money market for Friday.  Big Bush rally continued on Thursday, but it looks like  a pull back will start on Friday.  The market as measured by the S&P has now gone up 8 days in a row.  Our signal turned negative and it is supported by our very reliable oil indicator.  Probabilities show negative for the S&P and positive for the Nasdaq 100, but with greater risk on the down side.  We also saw a large decrease in the VIX over the last few days, generally indicates the rally is ending. We may see the indices go in different directions. Closing targets on the S&P are 1154 and 1169 on the Nasdaq 100 we have 1496 and 1532.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 3, 2004

75% Money market, Long: 12.5% Titan, 12.5% Velocity for Thursday.  Wednesday's market celebrated the Bush victory.  The European markets which usually follow the US lead did not.  From here we should expect additional stimulation for business, but continued weakness in the dollar and increased trade deficit, and not much relief on the oil front.  The economy itself remains favorable as indicated by our current positive T-Index reading of +44.  The signal for Thursday remains flat. We took a 25% position in line with the probabilities and positive signal from our oil indicator and kept the other 75% in the money market.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1134 and 1152.  For the Nasdaq 100 we see 1482 and 1529.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 2, 2004

75% Money market, 12.5% Tempest, 12.5% Venture for Wednesday.  Tuesday's market rally fizzled.  We have a "money market" signal.  We also have 6 up-days in a row for the S&P 500 (just barely) and an election.  We have taken a small "short" position.  Our T-Index continues to gain strength now at +46.  Overall we see good economic growth with either election outcome.  If Bush wins we should see benefits from a focus on the economy.  If Kerry wins we  should see benefits from rebuilding international relationships.  The market will tell us what it thinks after the results are in.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 1, 2004

100% Money market for Tuesday.  The markets flattened as we got closer to the election.  The best guess is that a clear win from either party will give the market a boost while a contested election will send the market lower.  Our signal was flat and we moved into the money market.  The probabilities are more positive and the oil indicator was also positive.  Closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1122 and 1138. Targets for the Nasdaq 100 are 1479 and 1508.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 29, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  The up-move over the past four days seem to be losing momentum. Our signal, though positive, is barely so and the influence from oil has turned negative.  The T-index climbed a bit to +40.  Unfortunately we do not have a candidate that would or could stimulate employment with hiring tax incentives,  improve our relationships with foreign countries, and keep a lid on spending to balance the budget.  Make your own list and vote on Tuesday... have a good weekend.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 28, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.  The T-index held at +38 as the market gained a bit during the last half hour.  The probabilities look good for the Nasdaq 100 not very good for the S&P.  Our signal and oil based indicator are both positive and we are following along.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1122 and 1133 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1474 and 1508.  So we may see the Nasdaq 100 reach 1500 on Friday, it has been below 1500 for four months.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 27, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday.  The indices all made large up-moves on Wednesday as the price of oil fell below $53 per barrel.  The oil drop kicked up the yield on the 10 year notes, which in turn pushed our T-Index down to +38.  We have a positive signal for Thursday's market and we moved fully long.   Our oil based indicator also calls for the stock market to continue higher on Thursday. The probabilities give only about a 40% chance for a pause. Closing targets for the S&P are 1122 and 1136, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1467 and 1499.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 26, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% money market for Wednesday. Conflicting signals continue.  Tuesday money flowed into the insurance and home builder stocks.  These stocks had been pulling the market down lately.  The rally was first felt in the S&P and moved into the Nasdaq 100 by the close.  Our basic signal is still an out, but as you can tell by the probabilities it leans to the positive.  With oil prices so high our oil signal has been very much on the money in forecasting the direction of the market, and once again it is calling for an up-day for Wednesday.  Our T-Index is now at +43. There is no problem there, since it reflects a perfectly normal interest rate mode seen in a healthy economy.  I do see two drags on the economy however. One is the high price of oil, which has a side benefit of helping to keep the lid on interest rates, and the other is the trade deficit which is putting pressure on the dollar and upward pressure on interest rates.  Oil prices most likely will fall on their own. The trade deficit will not recover so easily.  The combination should push interest rates higher.  Wednesday's closing targets for the S&P are 1104 and 1120. For the Nasdaq 100 we see 1415 and 1464.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 25, 2004

100% Money market for Tuesday.  Conflicting signals for Tuesday.  Our oil signal, which has been very reliable is positive, our regular signal moved from money market to negative near the close.  This type of conflict will most likely result in only minor movement  for Tuesday.  The T-Index continues to improve now a +39.  This is a very solid, positive, reading and is normal for a healthy economy.  So we are very positive longer term.  The closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1086 and 1101.  For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1413 and 1445.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 22, 2004

100% Money market for Monday.  We were not expecting a new record closing price in oil and that combined with some less than perfect earning reports pushed the market lower.  We have an OUT signal for Monday and have moved into the money market.  Our oil indicator has now moved negative and I expect we could see some more heavy downside on Monday.  Our probabilities lean to the upside, but the potential for a large decline (as shown as "average amount down" in the table on our "forecast" page) is significant.  On the positive side there is more improvement in the T-Index now at +36.  This would indicate that this drop will not lead to any major longer term selling.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 21, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.  The S&P 500 continues to lag the Nasdaq 100.  We have another "buy" signal, but the potential amplitudes look smaller.  Our oil indicator is confirming our signal for an up-day.  My feeling is that we will see a small gain on Friday.  Some disappointing earnings from big companies have the aftermarket down. This probably will carry over into the morning.   In our office we have our DSL running again and a modem back-up system in place.  You should all be aware that one day in the future it is most likely  the Internet will be down across the country and maybe across the world.  It is dangerous to have so much commerce and life depending on a single system of communication.  We can put on our blinders and go skipping along but I don't believe we will always get by without a major interruption, and that interruption could be catastrophic.  Expect to see a disaster film come out that takes place twenty years in the future called "The Internet is down."  Closing targets for the S&P are 1100 and 1111.  For the Nasdaq 100 we see 1462 and 1490.  Our closing T-Index was +34,  now in a very positive mode.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 20, 2004

100% money market due to power outage. Expect a strong up-move for Thursday. T-Index moved to +33. Probabilities and amplitudes are calling for a good day. Our DSL is down at the office and we have installed a back up dial up so we will be trading tomorrow.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 19, 2004

75% Money market, Short:  12.5% Venture, 12.5% Tempest for Wednesday.  New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer moved the market today with his subpoena of Cigna Corp and continuing investigation of Insurance and brokers. The markets had started off on a strong note but closed weak.  We gave up a good portion of yesterday's gains ourselves.  Our signal for Wednesday turned negative, but since we continue to see strength in our oil indicator along with strength in the T-Index the feeling is that this drop will be short lived.  The T-Index closed the day at  +30.  We therefore took only a small short position.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1095 and 1109.  For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1421 and 1458.  SBGI has gone down 6 days in a row and lost 8.5%  since our comments OCT 11. They had a small bounce at the close which may mean the selling is over for now.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 18, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  Excellent upside probabilities and potential amplitudes for Tuesday so we remain 100% invested.  Our T-Index  improved to +24, and once again all signals are positive.  This could be the start of another bull move, provided oil prices start to taper off.  Targets for Tuesday's S&P close are 1111 and 1122.  For the Nasdaq 100 our targets are 1449 and 1480.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 17, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  All signals are positive for Monday and we moved fully long at the close on Friday.  The program is working very well and we have gained over 13% since the beginning of  August when we added oil as one of our indicators.  Our T-Index closed at +21 strong enough to suggest the economy is moving forward in good shape.  To clarify my previous comment regarding social security, I oversimplified the the White house's focus on the problem, which would be unfair to Mr Bush. You can get a more accurate description here http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/02/20020228-1.html 

Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 14, 2004

Long: 13% Velocity, 13% Titan, 74% money market for Friday.  Our basic signal turned positive for Friday, but we continue to see weakness from our oil indicator which has performed so well this year we can not ignore it.  Also after three down days in a row the traders should be ready for small buys and we took a small upward position.  If there is weakness on Friday I expect the Nasdaq 100 to show it first.  In favor of the plus side, our T-Index gained today and closed at +22, a much healthier reading on the economy.  Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1099 and 1113.  For the Nasdaq 100 we see 1410 and 1443.  President Bush spoke in favor of letting individuals invest their own social security money.  This is most dangerous and must never be allowed to happen.  As an investment advisor I would benefit from such a move, but am firmly against it.  Social security is there to protect the less fortunate from being homeless and starving in old age.  It is not a full retirement plan.  Investing always has risks and people depending on social security can not afford those risks.  We must protect our older citizens and keep them from living in poverty.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 13, 2004

Short: 25% Tempest, 25% Venture, 50% money market for Thursday.  Intel's strong earnings were undone as a drop in the Futures markets in metals and energy caused a drop in those companies directly effected. This put pressure on the indexes.  We missed the swings, being in the money market.  The negative signal we had most of the day turned flat at the close.  Our oil based signal, which has been the most accurate this year is negative, so we are leaning to the down side.  Our T-Index showed a positive response and jumped to +17.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1106 and 1122.   For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1416 and 1453.  SBGI lost another 2% today as they let their politics get in the way of sound business practice (see Oct 11 comments).  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 12, 2004

100% money market for Wednesday.  Once again the markets closed with little change.  Oil dropped after making a new high.  Our signal turned flat and we moved into the money market.  Our T-Index inched up to 12.  In a follow up from yesterday, SBGI lost over 1% today, not that much of a reaction to their policies.  Let's keep watching.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1118 and 1124, for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1420 and 1451.  I would have given the nod to the downside for Wednesday, but in the aftermarket the futures jumped higher due to Intel's strong earnings. So expect an up-day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 11, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  The markets were little changed on Monday.  The bond markets were closed leaving our T-Index unchanged from Friday.  The probabilities and expected amplitudes are strongly one sided and positive, so we moved fully long.  I would expect only moderate upside improvement from this level.  Closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1119 and 1133, for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1430 and 1454.  SBGI a pro-Bush broadcasting company plans to air an anti-Kerry documentary next week during prime time.  It will be interesting to watch that stock over the next few days and weeks.  SBGI is already down 50% from earlier this year and  may see some further selling from pro-Democrat hands.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 8, 2004

60% money market, Short: 20% Tempest, 20% Venture for Monday.  Our program is working very well. Over the past two weeks we had eight gains, one loss and one day in the money market.  I see the market moving lower for Monday, but the probabilities are less bleak, and a small bounce should come early in the week.  Our T-Index showed improvement to +11. This is a gain in the index for the week, after a sharp drop a week earler.  Friday's S&P closed a little above our target and the Nasdaq 100 closed a little below our targets.  Target closes for Monday on the S&P are 1112 and 1132.  For the Nasdaq 100 we see 1403 and 1447.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 7, 2004

50% money market, short: 25% Tempest, 25% Venture for Friday.    Thursday the S&P fell through our downside target and the Nasdaq 100 remained above the low target.  I do not think this is a one day drop in the rally that gave the Nasdaq 100 over a 6% gain in 7 days.   Our T-Index did not improve on the fall, but lost 2 points to a +7.  Oil hit $53 a barrel today.  The market should be giving back more of the recent gain prior to any resumption in the rally.  A look at the charts indicates we need to go lower for support.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1120 and 1138, for the Nasdaq100 we have 1433 and 1468.  A closer election race makes the market nervous, so we may see more direction changes.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 6, 2004

100% money market for Thursday.  A late rally sent the markets higher.  Our program gave us a short signal for Thursday, but we also had some conflicting information so we chose to stay out.  Our T-Index closed at a +9.  This is too close to the border between go and no-go to feel comfortable saying the economy is fully in the clear.  The S&P closed on our upside target Wednesday.  Closing targets for Thursday's S&P are 1135 and 1154.  For the Nasdaq 100 see 1451 and 1489.  The Nasdaq 100 has now gone up 7 days, time for a pause.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 5, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday.  The market should resume its upward path on Wednesday.  The Nasdaq 100 has now gone up six straight days,  and at some point should step back if only because it has too many up days in a row.  Probabilities do look good for a 7th.  We moved back long 100%. Closing targets for the S&P are 1128 and 1142.  For the Nasdaq100 we see 1444 and 1486.  Out T-Index is now +11.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 4, 2004

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50% Money market, Long: 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Tuesday.  The carry-over from Friday's market lost steam early on but maintained positive through the close.  We should see some more consolidation here.  Our signal is positive, but weak.  T-Index is +9.  We await a stronger signal.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 1, 2004

50% Money market, Short: 25% Tempest, 25% Venture for Monday.  The markets closed strong Friday with the Futures market at a premium over the cash for Monday.  Our signal is facing the other way and we took a 50% short position.  It was a good week for us, correct 5 for 5 days. Since nothing is perfect for very long Monday could easily continue positive.  The T-Index was pushed back to +8.   Going negative would give us another warning of a failing economy and most likely mark the end to any rally.  The market easily surpassed our targets for Friday.  Monday's target closes for the S&P are 1121 and 1137. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1426 and 1465.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 30, 2004 

50% money market, long: 50% Velocity for Friday. Our T-Index sulked back to +14 after reaching as high as +21 on Monday.  The rapid rise in the 10 year note interest rate is causing the curve to get more steep.  Hopefully the index will not get much lower.  We withdrew from the Titan fund (S&P index) in line with the probabilities.  I believe there is more life in the Nasdaq 100 for Friday, but it was a very close call at the close and more of a money market day.  Target closes for the S&P are 1110 and 1120. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1402 and 1436.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 29, 2004 

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday.  The T-Index fell today to +15.  We hope it was a one day drop, as going negative would not be a good thing for the economy.  The S&P managed to get a moderate gain after a slow start.  It should do better on Thursday with the Nasdaq 100 being the tail dragger.  Target closes on the S&P are 1111 and 1121.  For the Nasdaq 100 we see 1397 and 1435.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 28, 2004 

25% money market, Long: 37.5% Titan, 37.5% Velocity for Wednesday.  Our T-index held at +21.  Probabilities are positive, but not strong.  We reduced our exposure by 25%.  Closing targets on the S&P are 1104 and 1116.  For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1381 and 1419.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 27, 2004 

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  T-Index inched up a point to +21.  We are looking for a good up-day for Tuesday.  Closing targets on the S&P are1099 and 1114, for the Nasdsaq 100 we see 1367 and 1411.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 26, 2004 

50% money market, 25% short Tempest, 25% short Venture for Monday.  High oil prices continue to plague the market.  The interest rate picture on the other hand looks good and has pushed our T-Index into "buy" territory.  The T-Index closed at +20, where it seems to have settled for the past few days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 23, 2004 

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.  Improved probabilities for Friday, but no large move expected.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 22, 2004 

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday.  I did not see that one coming.  The reaction to the Fed tightening was compounded by the oil situation.  I expect a 50% retracing of Wednesday's fall for Thursday.  T-Index remained at 20.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1107 and 1131 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1385 and 1417.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 21, 2004 

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday.  Fed rate hike of .25% on Tuesday was expected and the market moved a bit higher.  The 10 year rates curiously moved lower raising our T-Index to +20.  Our probabilities slipped a small amount but remained firmly positive.  Most probably a small move for Wednesday.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1126 and 1137. For the Nasdaq100 we have 1422 and 1450.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 20, 2004 

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  Colgate gave a surprise profit warning while oil hit a new monthly high.  The Nasdaq 100 was supported by the semiconductors.  Will the Fed raise interest rates again this week?  With the 10 year rates trending lower it would seem that the answer is no, but we will see.  Our T-index is healthy closing at +15.  From the charts the S&P was at the top of a downward sloping channel and a pull back was the expected direction.  Tuesday should close higher as we see it.  Target closes on the S&P are 1112 and 1131. For  the Nasdaq 100 we have 1405 and 1452.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 17, 2004 

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  The T-Index advanced to close out the week at a +13.  As the T-Index gains it reinforces our view of economic improvement and a good stock market.  We moved fully long for Monday.  Closing targets for the S&P 500 are 1124 and 1135 for the Nasdaq 100 we see 1415 and 1446.  Both probabilities and associated potential amplitudes are positive for Monday, we expect this up-move to pick up speed.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 16, 2004 

70% Money market, Long: 15% Titan, 15% Velocity for Friday.  Our T-Index continues to make good gains and is now a +11.  We see this as a signal that the market will be headed higher long term.  For Friday we believe the likelihood of an up-move is greater than a down-move, but the potential for a large size down-move exists.  We took a small positive position.  Target closes for the S&P are 1111 and 1130.  For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1400 and 1435.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 15, 2004 

100% Money market for Thursday.  The T-Index held steady at +7 as the market backed off for the day.  Looks like more to come on Thursday, but there are some mixed signals and probabilities so we moved fully into the money market.  We closed very close to the low targets for Wednesday.  For Thursday the S&P closing targets are 1109 and 1128. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1393 and 1426.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 14, 2004 

50% Money market, Short: 25% Tempest, 25% Venture for Wednesday.  With the T-Index continuing to move positive ( now +7). I feel it is prudent to reduce the exposure during "short" trades as a normal interest rate curve generally coexists with more good news than bad.  Target closes for the S&P are 1121 and 1134. Targets for the Nasdaq 100 are 1413 and 1445.  The probabilities look weak, and are supported by negative amplitudes, but I do not expect any large moves on Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 13, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  I expect Tuesday to be a good up-day. Our T-Index held firm at +5.  The probabilities and amplitudes are positive.  Any downside should be minimal.  Target closes for the S&P are 1124 and 1132. For the Nasdaq 100 we see 1413 and 1444.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 10, 2004

50% money market, 50% long in Titan for Monday.  We exited the Venture fund at the early morning fix and rode the Tempest to the afternoon close.  The T-Index closed at +5 building on our long term "all clear signal".  The market is not looking for any terrorism over the weekend with Saturday being 9/11.  That is a positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 9, 2004

Short: 50% in Tempest, 50% in Venture for Friday.  The T-Index closed at +2.  Our Short term trading signal turned negative and we moved fully short.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1111 and 1124 for the Nasdaq 100 look to 1365 and 1403.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 8, 2004

25% long (Titan), 75% in money market for Thursday.  Once again the T-Index closed above zero stopping at a +4.  Mr. Greenspan spoke today and did not paint a pleasant picture 10 years down the road, especially as related to the climbing cost of health care. But for now the economy is moving along pretty much on track, even if it is a slow track.  In my opinion the stock market at this point in time does offer the best choices as far as asset allocation goes.  It should outpace real estate, t-bills, bonds, foreign currency and gold.  I think the big play in energy is over and investors should search for other sectors poised to take advantage of a slow moving, but positive economy.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 7, 2004

Short: 25% Tempest, 25% Venture, 50% Money market for Wednesday.  Tuesday's T-Index closed unchanged at -2.  A large drop in oil prices spurred a strong rally early in the day giving some back as the day wore on.  We reduced our negative position going into Wednesday.  Overall we are leaning more confidently toward a recovery in the economy and stock prices. Today I posted a new intermediate term forecast good through year end.  Get your free pass word to access.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 3, 2004

Short:  50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Tuesday.  We moved back into the market fully short for Tuesday. The T-Index gained some ground to a -2.  That is the border between a normal interest rate curve and one that depicts a deflationary mode.  Long term rates jumped a bit on Friday and I think we saw the bottom this past week.  Especially if the T-Index  goes and stays positive.  Tuesday closing targets for the S&P are 1099 and 1124; for the Nasdaq 100 we look to 1345 and 1388.   A new long term forecast was posted August 26,  read it, it's free. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 2, 2004

75% Money Market, 25% long (Titan) for Friday. Our T-Index lost more ground today falling back to -5 compensating for the large jump up in recent days.  Thursday's strong market should run into a wall on Friday if the bad news from Intel is an indication.  Our signal was neutral with a positive lean and we took a 25% long position in the S&P avoiding the Nasdaq 100.  Our oil indicator gave us a positive nod, but today's rally and the Intel report should negate any effect it might have had on the market for Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 1, 2004

100% Money Market for Thursday.  Short term forecasting the market will be a bit more tricky for the next few days as the T-Index bounces between minus and plus as it almost certainly heads further positive.  The closing T-Index was -2 as it backed off its meteoric rise over the past few days.  Although the probabilities look mixed I believe we will be going higher on Thursday.  We stayed in the money market  but will resume trading on a stronger signal.   A new long term forecast was posted August 26,  read it, it's free. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: Aug. 31, 2004 

100% Money market for Wednesday.  Our daily short term indicator moved us out of the stock market and into the money market for Wednesday.  Our T-Index has gone positive to +1.  This is a very good thing and reflects a stronger economy.  A stronger should lead to a stronger stock market.  Valuations seem still too high for a robust up move,  but assuming the T-Index remains positive, the market should see reasonable returns going forward.  The over valuations take a long time to work off and earnings will have to grow to support the high PEs.  A new long term forecast was posted August 26,  read it, it's free. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 30, 2004 

Short: 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Tuesday. Our  T-Index closed at -9 today.  The index is racing towards positive.  I believe the stock market is in the process of one last dip prior to heading higher.  If you agree with the T-Index concept it would be best to gradually step back into the market as the Index goes above zero since the zero point is really a range and the true zero point can be higher or lower than the index's zero.  Both probabilities and amplitudes favor the down side for Tuesday.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1089 and 1107 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1338 and 1389.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 27, 2004 

100% money market for Monday.  All eyes on our T-Index. Now at a -16 this index, which measures the slope of the interest rate curve is headed positive.  A positive T-Index gives the economic "all clear" signal for investing since it shows that the interest rates are in the normal relative positions that have historically stimulated economic growth.  We are very close to a long term "buy" signal.  I recommend that you download our free software and take a look at the historical data.  We have just posted a new long term forecast.  Get it now! No charge.   Our short term signal is flat and the probabilities are mixed.  Best to stay out under these conditions.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 26, 2004 

75% Money market, 25% Short:  (Tempest / Venture) for Friday.  Once again our signal has flattened this time with a negative leaning. We reduced our exposure by 75% but held the short position.  Our T-Index continues to gain, now a -18.  A positive T-Index will mean that short and long term interest rates are in a normal and good relationship with each other.  They become in sync and the economy should respond by improving.  NEW LONG TERM FORECAST WAS POSTED TODAY!.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 25, 2004 

Short: 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Thursday.  The sharp drop in the price of oil sent the market higher Wednesday.  Our oil signal has now reversed and we should see a pull back in stocks for Thursday. Our T-Index gave us a -21 as it continues on its path to positive territory. We must be more cautious in going short as the T-Index goes positive.  Wednesday we unhappily hit our targets for the S&P and Nasdaq100. Thursday's target closes are 1094 and 1115 for the S&P and 1369 and 1410 for the Nasdaq 100.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 24, 2004 

Short: 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Wednesday.  Tuesday's market was flat. Wednesday should be more dynamic. On one side we have a positive pressure from a relaxed oil price, on the other side we have a variety of negative indicators.  I would like to see the oil indicator aligned with the other indicators.  The aftermarket pushed the futures higher at the time of this writing.  The economics are rapidly improving. Our T- Index is now a -22.  The all clear signal is anything over 0. Closing targets for the S&P are 1088 and 1105, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1338 and 1390.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 23, 2004

75% Money market Long 12.5% Titan, 12.5% Velocity, for Tuesday.  Not much of a driving force behind the market, at least we don't see any in our indicators.  Probabilities favor a continuation on the upside for Tuesday, but there is little to gain.  There is more to lose on the down side.  We have sided with the probabilities but have reduced our exposure. Closing targets for the S&P are 1084 and 1103, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1355 and 1382.  Today's T-Index closed at -30.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 20, 2004

Long 25% Titan, 25% Velocity, 50% money market for Monday. "Sorry to get this up so late!" Our signals posted a perfect week and our accounts have gained over 13.8% in the past 10 days.  This improvement reflects the changes we made the beginning of August.  The changes included  adding oil as an indicator while  reducing the overall number of variables and rebalancing the significance of the variables we retained.  As for Monday the signal continued to weaken to barely positive.  We reduced our exposure by putting 50% into the money market.  I expect to see some carry over into Monday, but unless some other positives occur, we most likely will have a turn down starting Tuesday.  Our T-Index closed the week at -31. This represents an 11 point gain for the week.  It is headed for a positive mode by September if it continues along its path.   Closing targets for Monday's S&P are 1090 and 1108 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1348 and 1377. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 19, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.  As mentioned in yesterday's comments we had a small pull back.  Although our signal for Friday is very weak, it is still positive and I believe we will see somewhat higher prices with muted enthusiasm. Our T-Index closed at -33.  Closing targets for Friday 1082 and 1099 on the S&P, 1335 and 1374 on the Nasdaq 100.  Overall signal strength seems to be stepping lower so we may see more of a decline next week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 18, 2004

Short: 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Thursday.  We got more than expected Wednesday, always nice when it adds to our account.  For Thursday I expect the neglected oil influence will once again play on investor's minds and we will have a small pull back.  Oil and price pattern segments of our program are calling for a Thursday down move.  This could be a one day negative influence.  Although the probabilities are very one sided and negative the potential drop looks to have a small magnitude so it could just be a one day pause.  The T-Index had its pause today and moved  more negative back to -35.  I would still bet on our T-Index going positive in early September.  This should signal a recovery for business. Higher interest rates should follow.  Closing targets for Thursday for the S&P are 1086 and 1106.  For the Nasdaq 100 we see 1344 and 1385.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 17, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday.  I look for more of the same on Wednesday.  The Nasdaq should provide most of the market gain, but I don't expect a large move.  The big news for us is how rapidly the T-Index is moving towards positive.  Now at -29,  it was twice as negative (-58) on August 1st.  This reduction in the slope of the interest rate curve is clearly indicating that we are headed towards a better economic climate.  Once we go positive we will be back into the normal range of relationships between the long and short term rates.  This "normal" range is most beneficial to business.  Getting back into normal range should take some of the significance off of oil which hit $46.95 and closed at $46.70.  Target closes for the S&P are 1076 and 1087, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1318 and 1356.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 16, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  There is little to stimulate this market, with oil sitting at $46.  However the interest rate component of our signal is telling us there is more up-side and we stayed long into Tuesday.  The positives could end at any time, so we go one day at a time.  Target closes for the S&P are 1073 and 1090, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1310 and 1347.  Our T-Index closed at -39.  Once again the probabilities are both positive and the expected amplitude of move is uniformly greater for the up side.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 13, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  Oil continued its upward path going over $46 on Friday,  the market paused its drop and went a bit higher as it may have over done its downside move.  A strong up-move is most likely out of the question as the market makes new highs in oil.  Our T-Index stepped up a point to -42, showing some improvement in the slope of the interest rate curve.  Our trading signal is positive for Monday.  Probabilities are uniformly positive.  Closing targets for the S&Pare 1054 and 1076 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1290 and 1332.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 12, 2004

100% Money market for Friday.   The market was pushed lower by another rise in oil prices.  Our closing probabilities are slightly positive, but the risk on the downside is of greater magnitude.  Expected closing targets on the S&P are 1053 and 1070, on the Nasdaq 100 we have 1278 and 1319.  Our T-index holds at -43.  We are seeing large drops in individual stocks as the market adjusts to the possibility of slower growth and becomes less forgiving.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 11, 2004

100% Money market for Thursday.  We had a short signal close to the close it changed into a Money market signal too late to get out.  We will exit at  the AM fix.  The probabilities are very mixed and it is best to stay out.  Our T-index slipped back to -43.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 10, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday.  Our T-index inched up to -33.  The Fed's expected move should quiet the market for a while.  Our probabilities are becoming more even as our program drivers are moving towards flat line.  We may get a post Greenspan push but the closing rally most likely took out the steam and there is an even better chance we will see some backing down in line with the after market movement which moved sharply lower as of this writing.  Closing S&P targets are 1074 and 1090. For the Nasdaq100 we have 1328 and 1368.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 9, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  Our T-index leaped higher today to close at -35.   It could be just a few weeks before it goes positive.  This will happen as the short term rates gain on the longer term.  Very modest gains in the market on Monday and a more neutral day for Tuesday leaning positive.  We are long.  Fed meeting indications are still 1/4 point raise.  This will take the political pressure off of additional raises during election time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 8, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  Our T-index continues its rapid gain. Now only -41 as it closes in on going positive.  This should mean the economy will be kicking again in a few months in time for the election.  Look back over past comments to see where it has been in recent days and months.  Our program consists of a number of parts, each reflecting a significant area that affects investor transactions.  Some of the components provide a an extra day warning, but some require up to the minute data. We look at major influences like oil and interest rates as well as the price of the indexes that we invest in.  Over the long term the combination has worked well but shorter time frames, when fully invested can be rough as well as on occasion spectacular.  Monday's closing targets for the S&P are 1056 and 1075, for the Nasdaq 100 we look for 1300 and 1343.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 5, 2004

Long 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.  The T-index is holds at -46.  Oil prices are on investor's minds and driving the stock prices lower.  We have a long signal for Friday.  Over the weekend I will try to rework the two-day signal, however what happens on the day prior to the signal can not be ignored, especially when it has a negative impact.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1067 and 1093, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1332 and 1375. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 4, 2004

50% Money market, Short: 25% Tempest, 25% Venture for Thursday.  The T-index is now at -46.   We trimmed our short position to 50% for Thursday.  Oil is playing a much stronger role in the pricing of the market.  It is even more significant as it makes new highs. Target closes for the S&P are 1087 and 1103 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1359 and 1397.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 3, 2004

Short: 50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Wednesday.  T-index moves more quickly towards an all clear signal.  Now at -45. We have moved short for Wednesday but expect to see a recovery on Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 2, 2004

Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  Our program components are all positive for Tuesday.  T-Index made exceptional gains and closed at -52.  This index has done very well over the past few days and could now hit 0 within a month.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1101 and 1113 for the Nasdaq 100 look for 1394 and 1428.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Aug. 1, 2004

100% Money market for Monday.  Probabilities for Monday are mixed. Monday may suffer with the new "high alert" on the financial district.  Our P-Trend is looking to the upside for Tuesday.  T-Index showed additional recovery to -58.  Target closes are of no use with mixed probabilities and out signals.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 29, 2004

100% Money market for Friday.  More upside today.  Our P-Trend suggests there is a higher probability of going higher, but with a gain less than the potential downside.  We moved fully to the side lines.  Monday's signal appears to be more positive.  T-Index has fallen back a little to -65.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 28, 2004

75% money market. 12.5% Velocity, 12.5% Titan for Thursday.  Wednesday brought a sharp drop due to new highs in oil followed by a recovery that ended wih a small gain in the S&P and over 1/2% loss in the Nasdaq 100.  Mixed influences for Thursday and Friday moved us 75% into the money market the P-Trend is now neutral going through Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 27, 2004

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday.   Tuesday's forecast was on target with a strong up-day.  Our P-Trend is forecasting continuation of the up-trend for Wednesday with most likely a money market (out) day for Thursday.  Oil price influences will be a positive force throughout the week with interest rates being a negative starting on Thursday.  T-Index closed the day at -63 and continues to improve.  Closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1090 and 1103, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1379 and 1411.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 26, 2004

Long,  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  Our P-Trend program indicates that the negative influence from interest rates has waned and a positive influence from oil prices will push the market higher starting on Tuesday.  The oil influence should continue through the week.  I am expecting a stronger up-move than we have recently seen, over the next few days.   T-Index closed the day at -63 and continues to improve.  Once this indicator goes positive we can expect to see the market resume its climb on a long term basis.  This index has gained about 1 3/4 points per trading day over the past month and about 2.5 points per day the month prior.  Between now and when the T-Index goes positive can be some dangerous down drafts so use caution.  Closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1080 and 1092, for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1364 and 1396.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 25, 2004  

100% Money market for Monday.  Oil is having a large influence on stock prices and all indications are that the oil will play an even more significant role in the market in the future.  Our new oil indicator is very stable and I have made it part of the P-Trend indicator.  If I have figured it correctly we should see a much stronger market through the week.  It could start as early as Monday.  Forecast for Monday and Tuesday are for a higher market.  We are moving our accounts back into the market on Monday's close.  Target closes for the S&P are 1079 and 1094. Targets for the Nasdaq 100 are 1355 and 1404.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 22, 2004 

100% Money market for Friday.  Today I added a variable to our program that takes into account the oil situation.  This appears to have accounted for the poor showing in the P-Trend over the past month.  And actually enhanced the program going back over eleven years.  Oil does have an influence on the markets.  This is most apparent during times of economic uncertainty.  Economic uncertainty is reflected in the slope of the interest rate curve.  This has been simplified in our T-Index program which you can download for free.   P-Trend forecasts a down day for Friday and a neutral day on Monday.  I expect we will resume our normal trading on Friday or Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 21, 2004 

100% Money market for Thursday.  This market is too dangerous for us at the present time.  My calculations show this to be a temporary abnormality, but I prefer to sit out a few sessions to see what unfolds.   This would have been our first short position in July. The P Trend has gone negative and is expected to stay negative for Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 20, 2004 

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday.   Investors seemed more optimistic today and it should carry over.  Oil prices have been a drain on the markets over the last few weeks and today may mark a shift back to interest rates and earnings as the focus of investor thinking.  That is a good thing for our program.  The P_TREND once again is positive through Thursday.   T-Index closed the day at -74.  Bad but improved from last week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 19, 2004 

50%money market, Long  25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Tuesday.  The sharp drop in the Ndx over the last few minutes tossed us firmly into a money market signal.  However since we place our transaction prior to the close we had only partially anticipated the drop and remain 50% long.  Actual signal being out for Tuesday and potentially long for Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 18, 2004 

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.   Our long position in the face of a persistent downtrend has caused much damage to our record.  The P_TREND is behaving badly, but I do not think for long.  All our indicators have been positive.  The market has fallen along with the VIX which is an interesting phenomenon. The VIX usually goes higher in down markets as down markets tend to be associated with greater risk and larger daily moves.  We hold on along with our forecast once again positive for Monday and potentially long signal for Tuesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 15, 2004 

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.   The P_TREND continues holding positive. We have had a difficult 3 weeks.  Expect to see a change in trend shortly.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 14, 2004 

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday.   The P_TREND is holding positive through the week. We had a DSL modem go down today and delayed our report.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 13, 2004 

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday.  More bad news after-the-bell on Intel's earnings that did not match expectations.  The after-market is down shaply.   Our P-Trend not privy to after the bell news, continues optimistic and give us a "long" signal for Wednesday and a potentially "long" signal for Thursday.  The T-Index is now sitting at -80. June 14th (the last time I posted it) it was -99, so the T-Index continues to improve.  Hopefully it will go positive and give an "all clear" signal.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 12, 2004 

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  The tech sector  continues to behave badly.   Our P-Trend continues optimistic and give us a "long" signal for Tuesday and a potentially "long" signal for Wednesday  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 11, 2004 

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.  After an especially bad week for us we are getting some very positive readings in the probability department.  Our P-Trend continues optimistic and give us a "long" signal for Monday and a potentially "long" signal for Tuesday [ we say "potentially" because we like to verify the signal with Monday's data. ]  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 8, 2004 

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.  Hard to say what is behind this sudden disenchantment with the market.  Not much showed on my radar.  Friday should be the last of the problem days as some strength is sited overall for next week.  Our P-Trend continues optimistic and give us a "long" signal for Friday and a potentially "long" signal for Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 7, 2004 

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday.  Yahoo came out with earnings after the bell that were in line with estimates, but not with expectations.  The market reaction was very bad and as of this writing the Nasdaq 100 is down over 1% the S&P off about 1/2 %.   The P-Trend gives us a "long" signal for Thursday and a potentially "long" signal for Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 6, 2004 

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday.  Still long going through some very rough waters.   P-Trend gives us a "long" signal for Wednesday and a potentially "long" signal for Thursday.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1109 and 1125 for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1431 and 1471.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 4, 2004 

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday.  The poor employment figures that most likely caused the drop on Thursday could be a good thing for the market if it extends the easy money, low interest rates, for a while longer.  It would help the economy  build strength before another squashing with high rates.   P-Trend gives us a "long" signal for Tuesday and a potentially "long" signal for Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: July 1, 2004 

Long  50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.  A very disappointing day, especially since our program called for us to be in the money market and we stayed long due to the Fed action which is usually followed by an up day.  (see below).  We hold our long position into Friday with the P-Trend providing a "long" signal and a potential "long" signal for Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecasts and download the free "T" index software. 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2004

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2001

For earlier comments made early in year 2001

For earlier comments made in year 2000

Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil