Palisades Research

Registered Investment Advisors

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Track record for 2008

Our actual managed real-money account S&P 500 Nasdaq 100
+21.4% -5.5% -6.0%

Actual verifiable managed account from January 1, 2008 through May 9, 2008

Daily forecast for the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes:

Forecast Made: Forecast For: Direction:
May 12, 2008 May 13,  2008 Down

(Remember to reload your screen if old date appears.)

 

Probability for next day:

   Up Probability Average  amount (up) Down Probability Average amount (down)
S&P 39% .56% 61% -.72%
NDX 27% 1.20% 73% -2.28%

We give individual probabilities and ranges based on the S&P500 and Nasdaq100, each uses different criteria and so the values can differ, they are most reliable when the probabilities are both in the same direction.  * means insufficient data. **Means the signal was unstable near the close and not as reliable.

 

 

 

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This program is a work in progress.  In 2007 we saw the dollar move opposite to the stock market and the mortgage industry crash.  By continually working on improvement we are able to remain on top of the markets. The program's capabilities have greatly improved over the past 6 years as it learns from new data and we learn from our experience. 

 

Our actual managed real-money account

S&P500

NASDAQ 100

+57.9%

+10.1%

6.5%

Actual verifiable managed account from June 1, 2001 through May 9, 2008.

Includes program development from 6/1/01 to 12/30/05 so returns are total, not annualized.

(These are real, not hypothetical values.)

 

Table updated weekly.  Our actual managed account is our real account using Rydex Funds. It does not show deductions for our low quarterly fees. All our Rydex traded accounts trade the same way. 

Our track record compared to the S&P 500 and 

Nasdaq 100 over past 6+ years 

(includes our development period from 6/1/01 - 12/30/05).

 

free T-Index software

Read our Daily Comment: We tell you our positions and market expectations a day in advance.  We have provided the daily forecast continuously since Nov. 17, 2000.

Signals for the S&P500 posted after  2:30 pm Pacific time (one and a half hours after the close) for the next trading day.

Our program, using no-load index funds is designed to work under all market conditions and has done so, in actual trading with real money, for the past 66+ months. Over this time frame we have greatly out performed the markets, with lower draw downs than the markets, dispelling the theory that trading always involves high risk.  The forecast (above) is for the next market day only.  The probability chart shows the probability and expected amount of the move (explanation).  Watch these forecasts, you will need patience because we only trade when we believe we have a high probability of being correct.  We are in the market, on average about 4 days per week, the rest of the time we are safe in the money market. Sometimes we are only partially invested. The program was developed to keep risk at a minimum and to produce large gains.  This program measures "investor emotion" and "inter-market money flow"--it took thousands of hours and a number of years to develop. The program is capable of learning and adapts to new market conditions.  

These are real transactions, not hypothetical calculations.  Our real-money transactions are made using no load Rydex Dynamic Mutual funds.  The active aggressive (2x) account moved between the Dynamic S&P 500, Inverse S&P 500 and money market. As of June 12, 2003 they also included the Rydex Dynamic OTC  and Inverse Dynamic OTC funds. Our program uses signals generated a few minutes prior to the market close in order to place the trades with Rydex, our daily comments will let you know exactly what we are doing.

There have been a number of improvements to the program since inception in August of 2000. The program learns from experience and has now digested a bear market as well as the prior bull run and has provided a good deal of protection for us during this severe down-turn.   We are Registered Investment Advisors.

If you would like us to manage your account using this very program, see our Investment Programs.  

Please do not trade these signals on your own. We are not responsible for any losses that may occur.

Visit us often and watch our progress.  Be sure to read the Daily market Commentary every day.  When we say LONG in our comments it means we expect the market to go up and have purchased the Rydex Dynamic [S&P 500, OTC or Russell 2000] fund. When we say SHORT it means we expect that the market will go lower and have purchased the Rydex Inverse Dynamic  [S&P 500, OTC or Russell 2000] fund (which move opposite to the market), and when we say Money Market it means we do not have enough information for an informed decision and have moved into the Rydex money market.  This is a very sensible way to invest.  Take a look at our investment programs.

You must remember there is always risk of loss when investing.  Past performance is not a sure indicator of future performance. 

With the trowel of patience, we dig out the roots of truth.

---

French Proverb

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