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Forecast
Daily Market Commentary
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Track
record for 2008
| Our actual managed
real-money account |
S&P 500 |
Nasdaq 100 |
| +21.4% |
-5.5% |
-6.0% |
Actual
verifiable managed account from January 1, 2008 through May 9, 2008
Daily forecast for the S&P500
and Nasdaq 100 indexes:
| Forecast
Made: |
Forecast
For: |
Direction: |
| May
12, 2008 |
May
13, 2008 |
Down |
(Remember to reload your screen if old date appears.)
Probability
for next day:
| |
Up
Probability |
Average amount (up) |
Down
Probability |
Average
amount (down) |
| S&P |
39% |
.56% |
61% |
-.72% |
| NDX |
27% |
1.20% |
73% |
-2.28% |
We give
individual probabilities and ranges based on the S&P500
and Nasdaq100, each uses different criteria and so the values can differ, they are most reliable when the probabilities are both in the same
direction. * means insufficient data. **Means
the signal was unstable near the close and not as reliable.

_________________________________________________________
This
program is a work in progress. In 2007 we saw the dollar move opposite to
the stock market and the mortgage industry crash. By continually working
on improvement we are able to remain on top of the markets. The program's
capabilities have greatly improved over the past 6 years as it learns from new data and
we learn from our experience.
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Our actual managed
real-money account |
S&P500 |
NASDAQ 100 |
|
+57.9% |
+10.1% |
6.5% |
Actual verifiable managed
account from June 1, 2001 through May 9, 2008.
Includes
program development from 6/1/01 to 12/30/05 so returns are total, not annualized.
(These
are real, not hypothetical values.)
Table updated
weekly. Our actual managed account is our real account using Rydex Funds. It does not show deductions for our
low quarterly
fees. All our Rydex traded accounts trade the same way.
Our track
record compared to the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq 100 over past
6+ years
(includes
our development period from 6/1/01 - 12/30/05).
free
T-Index software
Read
our Daily
Comment: We tell you our positions
and market expectations a day in advance. We have provided the
daily forecast continuously since Nov. 17, 2000.
Signals for the S&P500 posted after 2:30 pm Pacific time (one and a half hours after the
close) for the next trading day.
Our program, using
no-load index funds is designed to work under all market conditions and has
done so, in actual trading with real money, for the past 66+ months. Over
this time frame we have greatly out performed the markets, with lower draw downs
than the markets, dispelling the theory that trading always involves high
risk. The forecast (above) is for
the next market day only. The probability chart shows the
probability and expected amount of the move
(explanation).
Watch these forecasts, you will need patience because we only trade when
we believe we have a high probability of being correct. We are in the market,
on average about 4 days per week, the rest of the time we are safe in
the money market. Sometimes we are only partially invested. The program was
developed to keep risk at a minimum and to produce large gains. This
program measures "investor emotion" and "inter-market
money flow"--it took thousands of hours and a number of years to
develop. The program is capable of learning and adapts to new market
conditions.
These are real transactions, not hypothetical calculations. Our real-money transactions are made using no load Rydex Dynamic Mutual
funds. The active aggressive (2x) account moved between the Dynamic
S&P 500, Inverse S&P 500 and money market. As of June 12, 2003 they also included the
Rydex Dynamic OTC and Inverse Dynamic OTC funds. Our program uses signals generated a
few minutes prior to the market close in order to place the trades with Rydex, our
daily comments
will let you know exactly what we are doing.
There have been a number of improvements
to the program since inception in August of 2000. The
program learns from experience and has now digested a bear market as
well as the prior bull run and has provided a good deal of protection
for us during this severe down-turn. We are Registered
Investment Advisors.
If you would like us to manage your account using
this very program, see our
Investment Programs.
Please do not trade these
signals on your own.
We are not responsible for any losses that may occur.
Visit
us often and watch our progress. Be
sure to read the Daily
market Commentary every day. When we say LONG in our comments
it means we expect the
market to go up and have purchased the Rydex Dynamic [S&P 500, OTC
or Russell 2000] fund. When we say
SHORT it means we expect that the market will go lower and have
purchased the Rydex Inverse Dynamic [S&P 500, OTC or
Russell 2000] fund (which move opposite to the market),
and when we say Money Market it means we do not have enough information
for an informed decision and have moved into the Rydex money market.
This is a very sensible way to invest. Take a look at our
investment programs.
You must
remember there is always risk of loss when investing. Past
performance is not a sure indicator of future performance.
With the trowel of patience, we dig out the roots of truth.
---
French Proverb
Copyright 2000, Palisades Research All rights
reserved.
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