|
Daily Market
Commentary
Comments:
July 3, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Monday. Happy
fourth to all. We squeaked through the week with a small gain. But
this is a dangerous market with oil providing some bad cross winds. To
counter this problem we now have an oil component that can give us some
additional insight. This lets us utilize the oil influence to better
sort out hazy signals. We closed the day with a slightly negative, signal
for Monday. Our oil component had the NDX leaning to the up-side. We moved
in favor of caution and 100% into the money market, preferring to pick up
a little interest over the three day weekend. Recent market behavior
has punished even the fertilizer group, knocking them down 15%-20% in the
past two weeks. Our method of investing one-day at-a-time keeps your money
liquid and guards against being swept away with the masses when a market
tanks. Over the last 30 months we have outperformed the average hedge fund
by well over 2 to1. Call or email for our information package. Our
rates are low and we don't hold your money, we just send our signals to
your account at Rydex or Jefferson National. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
July 2, 2008
Current
position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for
Thursday. The markets were
battered today after being up earlier. We gave up most of yesterday's
gains and slightly increased our exposure for Thursday. Thursday is
a shortened pre-holiday trading day with Rydex closing shop at 12:45PM
Eastern time. Treasury Secretary Paulson picked a bad day to talk
about the bank failure process. Many watching were probably thinking
"uh-oh here comes another one". Our signal weakened at the
close going from a mild "long" to a "money market" but
we were already committed at 37.5%. Hopefully the shortened day will
prevent much bloodshed. On the positive side our oil related indicators
are calling for a small recovery in the NDX for Thursday. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
July 1, 2008
Current
position: 25% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Wednesday. We
have a very confused signal for Wednesday. Strong indications that it
could move either way and unsteady going into the close. We reduced
our exposure to 25% long. Our T-Index climbed to +37, a good sign. The NDX
hit a short term low today and closed near its high, and looking at the
charts, this is usually another good sign for the up-side. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 30, 2008
Current
position: 50% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for
Tuesday. The NDX dropped a
full percent and closed on its low. Good chance for a recovery on Tuesday.
We are remaining only partially invested as this oil drama plays
out. Our T-Index improved slightly to +24 slowing its descent. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 27, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Monday. We
held our money market position for Monday. Monday is the last day of
the quarter. June was a difficult month, we slipped about 1% while
the indexes slipped about 8%. We had a decent quarter gaining 4.7%
and are ahead year-to-date at just under 22%. Our T-Index closed at +15
and is slipping slowly. With the market fundamentally oversold by
our criteria I expect it will find its legs soon and we should get a small
rally. But I don't expect any great move until September. Our signal
remains flat so I don't mind waiting for the next move. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 26, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Friday. The
market started down after the close Wednesday and had negative climatic
activity on Thursday with the NDX closing down over 4% and on the lows of
the day. The rush for the exits from General Motors, down over 10% at the
open, was the probable catalyst. When an index closes on the lows is
usually good for a bounce, but we trade prior to the close and our signal
was 100% money market. We will wait for a less dramatic opportunity.
The NDX, Dow, NYSE, and S&P all closed on their lows. Meanwhile
our fundamental component which measures earnings and interest rates
signaled a "buy" indicating that the market was historically
oversold from a value point of view. Looks like we are at or very
near a short term bottom. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 25, 2008
Current
position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for
Thursday. Both the Fed and the
market acted as expected. Our signal carried over unchanged and the
pullback from Wednesday's highs suggests to me that there is a little more
upside for Thursday. However since we did not see an increase in signal
strength we reduced our exposure. The aftermarket is has turned
lower but we are now only partially exposed and comfortable. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 24, 2008
Current
position: 50% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for
Wednesday. Wednesday is Fed
decision day, but most believe that the rates will remain unchanged.
Raising rates in the US will only further hurt our economy and not slow
inflation which is mostly coming from outside the US. Lowering
already low rates will not help the economy since those rates would not
translate into many loans that would help the broad economy, as lenders
have tightened the grip on funds. So expect rates to hold, and the market
to stage a small rally. We continue to keep our exposure somewhat
limited. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 23, 2008
Current
position: Short, 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for
Tuesday. Although the Dow
remained basically unchanged, we gained enough through the drop in the NDX,
to go positive for the month of June. Our signal has become less
negative and we reduced our exposure accordingly. Looking at the NDX
I see neither signs of a turnaround or signs of a selling climax. We are
stepping though this period cautiously. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 20, 2008
Current
position: Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for
Monday. Our signal remains
unchanged for Monday and it looks like Monday could be exciting judging
from the negative amplitude posted on our probability chart. Our
accounts had a good week and we are back over +22.5% for 2008. Our T-Index
has been slowly losing ground and now sits at +27, were it to go negative
at this point it would be an indication of more negative market
pressure. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 19, 2008
Current
position: Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for
Friday. Today's signal is a
medium strength short and we continue to limit our exposure, but pleased
to have gained about 2.4% in Thursday's up move. Oil traders are beginning
to feel the negative pressure. First it was the dollar making upward
overtures, then trading regulations and now China says it will raise fuel
prices, which may mean cuts in the subsidy to users. Many markets
outside of Europe are seeing much greater inflationary pressure than we
are, so there will be more pressure world wide to slow growth. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 18, 2008
Current
position: 75% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Thursday. Signal
strength improved significantly and we increased our market exposure to
75%. Some regulation is underway to curtail speculative oil trading.
London is limiting trading. I
expect regulatory focus will have some downward influence on oil
prices. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 17, 2008
Current
position: 25% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Wednesday.
Every time we find a few days going against us I dig deeper into the
program to see if I missed some gem. This time was no exception and we
will be better off going forward. I am looking forward to an
excellent second half of the year. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 16, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Tuesday. Oil
hit new highs today but the NDX did not seem to care, it did not seem to
care when oil backed off to close lower either. We may spend another
day of two evaluating these markets. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 15, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Monday. Recent
trading indicates that the movement oil is currently swinging the stock
markets. This action started about May 15 and I expect that it is a
temporary condition which the markets will adjust to. We will be extra
cautious since this type of activity can be unsettling. More of
our long term view posted today. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 12, 2008
Current
position: Short, 75% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for
Friday. The inverse relationship
between oil and and the stock market has become very tight and the time
delay has been reduced. Early this year a large change in oil price
would be reflected the following day with an opposite move in the stock
market, but starting in April we saw the link tighten. By mid-May the lag
was removed and the oil-stock market link was very strong. You can
see this by doing a regression analysis on the daily changes in oil and
the NDX. This adjustment comes at the expense of some other long time
relationships and has become the "fashionable" indicator for day
traders. If you have a real time system you can watch the "uso"
etf. Our indicators turned very negative and we moved 75%
Short. Check our recent long term posting. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 11, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Thursday. For
our accounts this was our third worst trading day since January
2006. Good thing those days are rare. It erased our gain for
June. We are still ahead of the NDX and S&P for June, and we
remain about 21% ahead for 2008. There is always risk in
trading. Today oil was the culprit. Once again this week the
NDX closed on the low of the day. This leads us to believe that there is a
good chance the market will rally from here and the worse may be over for
a while. On the negative side the climb in oil will move some more
money out of stocks and into commodities. I have posted a new,
brief, long term forecast. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 10, 2008
Current
position: 100% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x for Wednesday.
This is our first 100% long position since April 22. Our signal is
strong and the probabilities look good for both the NDX and the SPX.
The dollar moved higher today and oil lower. Tuesday's stock market
started lower but did not dip any further. Interest rates climbed.
Last fall we talked about the China market moving into a blow-off
phase. A quick check now shows that the Shanghai index has lost
close to half its value since mid October. With lots of talk about
world demand for oil it would seem that oil will just continue to rise,
but markets don't work that way. Expect at some point to see a large
drop in oil prices. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 9, 2008
Current
position: Short, 37.5% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for
Tuesday. When the NDX closed on
the low of the day Friday I was concerned that the market might have
reached a turn around point. Monday morning at the early fix I moved half
of our position into the money market to limit our risk for the rest of
the day. By the close we had another strong "short"
signal, but the discrepancy between the direction of the NDX and the other
markets was a cause for concern, and I limited our exposure to
37.5%. Things should be more clear in a day or two. A large
part of making money is avoiding over-exposure in uncertain
markets.
Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 6, 2008
Current
position: 100% Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% Rydex Inverse
Dow 2x for Monday. Oil spiked higher
Friday continuing Thursday's trend. The NDX had a very negative day
loosing more than 3%. This combined with our strong negative signal
leads me to believe the down trend will continue on Monday. Brazil
ewz along with the oil service index xoi were down both of these generally
move with the price of oil. It appears that these indexes are anticipation
a weakening of the economy and an eventual fall in oil prices.
Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 5, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Friday. Strong
up day all around for the markets and that unfortunately includes oil and
most commodities as the dollar fell. Our signal pulled back some, and
combined with the 4% jump in oil prices I can't see much more upside
progress. Our accounts outpaced the indexes again this week with
much less market exposure. We strive to keep our market risk down
and it has paid off. All accounts are at new highs. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 4, 2008
Current
position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5 % money market for
Thursday. Our Signal improved
slightly and we increased our exposure to the markets accordingly. Risk
factor still seems high but it appears that money is moving out of oil and
commodities and into the NDX. The financials in the S&P are holding
that index back and some of the financial money may be moving towards
tech. I expect that the NDX will make another attempt at going
through Wednesdays high, but the after-market is lower as I write this. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 3, 2008
Current
position: 25% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 75 % money market for Wednesday. Tuesday
had some large swings and I was glad to have walked away with a
gain. For
Wednesday a slightly positive signal with slightly negative probabilities.
We moved with the signal, supported by drops in oil and other commodities,
a stronger dollar, and positive comments from the Fed (moving the focus to
stabilizing our currency) add to that Wednesday is our favorite day to go
long. But the pull back may not be over and therefore the reduced
exposure. As to the Fed remarks I pay more attention to
remarks that are forward looking than those that look back. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
June 2, 2008
Current
position: 75% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for
Tuesday. I would have liked for
the NDX to have closed a bit lower but we still have a strong
"Short" signal for Tuesday. Oil climbed some, but not
enough to really influence the general market. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 31, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Monday. Oil
prices have become one of the most dominant variables effecting this
market. The overall commodity index has leveled off since February, with
wheat going lower, corn holding and oil going higher. The US dollar seems
to have found a bottom and is climbing slowly. The departure from oil by
the broader group of commodities signals to me that the end of the run for
oil is near. The climb in oil prices, though steep, does not appear
to be in a blow-off phase. Unfortunately these two observations tend
to contradict each other to a certain extent. Falling oil could easily
give new life to the markets and that is something we need to watch
because as money flows out of oil it will need to find a home and T-Bills,
still under 2%, do not look like the place to be. I believe some of
this oil-to-stock money has propelled the markets this past week.
Our accounts had a 1% gain for the month. We spent the past three days in
the money market and will remain there on Monday. This type of
investing requires a lot of effort and discipline, but has brought us the
rewards of much greater than market gains with less than market risk
exposure. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 29, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Friday. The Commerce Department said
"the U.S. economy grew at a sluggish pace in the first quarter, held back by the biggest slump in housing in 26 years and the first decline in final domestic sales in 17
years".
Oil
prices fell even as crude supplies declined, in a direction opposite of
what one would expect. Over the last couple of years a fall in oil prices
greater than about 1% usually leads to an increase in stock market prices
the following day, as investors act on the positive news. This time
we already had three days of stock market gains, so any additional up-move
will most likely be blunted. Our T-Index is sitting at +37. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 28, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Thursday. Dow
Chemical announced a price raise of up to 20% across the board.
Their chairman said: “For years, Washington has failed to address the issue of rising energy costs and, as a result, the country now faces a true energy crisis, one that is causing serious harm to America’s manufacturing sector and all consumers of
energy”. The markets for some reason did not seem very
concerned and the indexes closed with small gains. Our signal
finally turned positive, but with so little conviction that we remain in
the money market. Strong signals make us money. No sense trading the
weak ones. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 27, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Wednesday. Good
day for the market, bad day for us. Could be the market is setting up to
base in this area after experiencing a few percentage point correction
over the past week and a half. Both short and long term interest rates
climbed to new highs as the dollar climbed and oil retreated.
Wednesday has a good record of going higher and I believe today's climb
could continue into Wednesday, but our signal is flat. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 23, 2008
Current
position: 60% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 40% money market for
Tuesday. A very nice steady week
for us. Four small gains and one day in the money market brought our
year-to-date gains to 26.1% (fees not included). The market itself did not
fare very well and both the NDX and SPX are off over 6% for
2008. At this time we do have openings for managed accounts in all
states so give us a call. All our accounts trade at the same time in
the same fund and at the same price along with our own money. We
believe in what we do, that is why we are investors along with you.
For Tuesday our signal, though still strong, became less negative and we
reduced our exposure to 60%. Have an enjoyable long weekend and check back
in with us on Tuesday. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 22, 2008
Current
position: 80% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 20% money market for
Friday. We have a strong Short
signal but with some components (that I would prefer to see on board)
going in the opposite direction. So I held back 20%. A long week end is
coming up and there should be some lightening up of positions by traders,
Thursdays small up tick should relieve the oversold pressure from the past
few days and allow more negativity to creep in. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 21, 2008
Current
position: 20% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80 % money market for
Thursday. This has turned into a
good week for us as today's large drop in the markets pushed our ytd gain
to over 25%. For Thursday we have a money market reading in signal
strength, but it has fallen for a number of days and the probabilities now
strongly favor a small bounce. I don't want to get too exposed at this
point as we have finally started a down trend and I am fairly certain that
it is not finished. Once again anyone interested in seeing our daily
trades and % changes for the past 28+ months please email me and I will
send you the spread sheet. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 20, 2008
Current
position: 25% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for
Wednesday. There has been some
chatter on the web regarding trading our signals and I would like to clear
things up. I post information on our trades so that potential investors
can check our trading before hopefully signing up with us. I do not
encourage trading our signals for two reasons. You will not be able to
trade the Rydex funds at the close yourself as we do because I don't post
the signal until after the close. And trading the QQQ or futures
involves commissions and slippage and an altogether different time
slot. Over the past 28+ months we have achieved a total gain of over
68% for our clients using Rydex funds. Although this is a sizeable gain,
it amounts to less than a tenth of a percent per day which can easily be
eaten up by commission, slippage and timing if you were to blindly follow
the signals. I hope this clears things up and helps keep people out of
trouble. If anyone would like a spread sheet of our actual daily trades
and % changes going back to Jan 1, 2006 send me an email and I will attach
it and send it back.
As
for today's forecast our signal became more negative, but not excessively
so. Therefore we are only partially invested preferring to risk more when
we have we have a stronger signal. It was interesting to watch the
"depressing" news this morning compared to yesterday morning
when all was "buoyant", realizing that nothing had really
changed over the past 24 hours except emotions. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 19, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Tuesday. The
market fell back from new recent highs reversing the moves of recent
sessions. Our signal moved into the gray area and we moved fully
into the money market content to wait for a stronger signal. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 17, 2008
Current
position: 75% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for
Monday. Friday's market repeated
Tuesdays performance by dropping 1% then fully recovering. Only the
Dow, of the major averages shows a loss over the past two weeks, having
topped out on May 2nd. We remain short, but I have reduced our exposure.
Over the past week oil continued to make new highs and another airline
closed its doors (Air Midwest). These are items that normally spook the
markets but the market continues to rally, now a full two months since the
Bear Stearns bottom. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 15, 2008
Current
position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Friday. Factory
activity declined and joblessness reached a four year high, but progress
toward a housing rescue helped move the markets higher. Our signal
became much more negative and we are fully short. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 14, 2008
Current
position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for
Thursday. Early market gains disappeared
and moved our signal into limited positive territory for Thursday. Our
signal and probabilities are not in full agreement. With the
NDX hitting new recent highs and the S&P close behind I wonder how
much longer money will flow out of T-bills to fuel this rise. Since
March 20 when the 90 day bills hit 0.5% the S&P has risen about 6% and
the NDX about 14%. But short them rates have already tripled (now at
1.785%) so most of the fuel may be gone. The recent gains have moved
our earnings/interest rate model back into the normal area for the
S&P, so the index is no longer undervalued by that measure, and
S&P earnings continue to fall. We are experiencing some e-mail
problems today so please try again on Thursday. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 13, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Wednesday. The
market recovered from its early loss and held near even. Not
enough information to make a directional decision, so we reduce our
exposure to zero and make a few cents in the money market. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 12, 2008
Current
position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Tuesday. The
markets were surprisingly strong on Monday. That should lead to a
decline on Tuesday, but we may have some momentum players try to push the
market higher early on.
This
weekend I did an overall evaluation of our trading over the past 28 months
to see if our exceptional returns came at the expense of higher risk and
found that the total market exposure for our investors was
actually 17% less than for those investors that were fully long
or fully short the Nasdaq 100 index. There are very few places where
you could have gotten well above market returns with less than market
risk.
The
spread between the 10 year notes and 90 day bills continue to narrow,
pushing our T-Index higher. Our signal moved strongly to the down side and
seems to be justified by the weak probabilities as seen on our
"forecast" page. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 9, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Monday. Having
a good overall handle on market direction is only part of making money and
we gave up some gains this past week. The negative momentum has waned over
the past few days but has not turned positive, causing us to move into the
money market. Our T-Index has gained
ground as short and long interest rates have moved back into a more normal
relationship with each other. Earnings continue to fall and as they do
they allow the market to move lower without being out of line with normal
historical values, this fall will most likely continue so I expect a slow steady decline in market value over the
next few months. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 8, 2008
Current
position: 50% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for
Friday. Our indicators are still
negative, but less than previously, so we reduced our exposure but remain
negative. The economy in NYC seems to be booming. High rents
are offset by the volume of business. The city is very alive and full of
people in their 20's and 30's as well as many NYU students. Restaurants
are busy and people are everywhere. Parking is very difficult and no signs
of a recession. As to Friday's stock market we should be headed lower with
possibly more to follow on Monday. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 7, 2008
Current
position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Thursday. We
moved fully short. The NDX made a new short term high Wednesday,
then turned around and moved lower. Looks like that was the
top, but I said that last week too. The after market is a
little higher. The T-Index climbed to +21 and has been climbing the past
few days. Expect normal posting times as we are back in California. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 6, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Wednesday. The
market held up on Tuesday and climbed some, even though most of the news
was bad. After the market closed Disney announced some very good
earnings, which may have been anticipated by some traders. I
am still looking for a market down turn very soon. Our signal turned
flat and we moved into the money market. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 5, 2008
Current
position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Tuesday. Late
posting, in NYC for a few days..... Strong
short signal. We have moved fully sort, only consideration is the normal tendency
for Tuesday's markets to reverse Monday's direction. I will post on
time for Wednesday, but Thursday's posting will again be late. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 2, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Monday. Monday's
signal turned from "money market" to "long" at
the close. Too late to make the trade. Changes at the close are not
very reliable so it is best to wait for a more stable signal. The
market went much higher early Friday morning before the open. Then spent
the rest of the day slipping until the close. I may not be able
to post our positions every day this coming week since I am on vacation,
but I will try. We will be able to post again for sure by
Thursday. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
May 1, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Friday. Very
nice up day bringing all our accounts to new all time highs. The ndx
closed on the high of the day. I think that was the top, if not I
can't see it extending past Monday. Our signal turned flat. Looking
for money to be made on the down side next week. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 30, 2008
Current
position: 50% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for
Thursday. Fed moved as expected
and the market was confused, odd day. The markets closed with a minor pull
back. Our signal varied between a mild and strong "long"
for Thursday so we held firm. Generally investors are more positive on the
day following a Fed move. I expect to see Wednesday's highs tested on
Thursday. T-Index closed at -20. We need to have the desires of the
major corporations align with those of the general population.
Multinational corporations want a weak dollar since the bulk of their
earnings come from overseas. The weak dollar causes oil and food
prices to rise which hurts the general population. So far the government
has supported the desires of the corporations over that of the
population. That is close to changing. The Fed needs to keep
interest rates low to allow the real estate markets to heal. And a strong
economy will help bolster the dollar. But it will take time and earning
will continue to fall as they have in S&P latest earnings update. So
past this week I expect a lower market going forward for a number of
months. I will be in NYC on Thursday and hopefully my laptop will be able
to post without too much difficulty. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 29, 2008
Current
position: 50% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.
Another cautious day with the NDX up and most other markets lower. We have
a strong signal for Wednesday, but the Fed uncertainty takes away from it,
so we are only 50% long. The street is expecting a 1/4% cut, and I do not
think they will be too surprised if the rates stayed flat. Interest rates
climbed over the past two weeks supporting that theory. Some recent
strength in the dollar has trimmed the price of oil, gold, basic materials
and some food crops. This might providing some incentive to a flat or
small rate cut. I still expect that this week will produce a market top.
Our T-Index moved towards even, now at -2. I will be in New York on
Thursday and return next week, but I expect to trade and post my column
daily. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 28, 2008
Current
position: 75% Money market, 25% Short: Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for
Tuesday. Not much movement in the
markets ahead of the Fed meeting. We have taken a small short
position but no great expectations. My work is pointing to an intermediate
market top this week, probably on Thursday. Kind of hazy as to the
exact day with the FED decision on Wednesday. Looks like the markets
could be under a cloud all the way through August. The close of the
Democratic National convention will probably bring some relief. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 25, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Monday. We
had an excellent week going five-for-five with correct calls. All our
accounts are at new all time highs, up 22% for 2008. Friday was a strange
day with the NDX down and other indexes higher. Wednesday we will
have a Fed decision. All of this has set
up a mixed signal for Monday. I believe next week will go higher but
Monday is too difficult a call and I am not willing to risk our capital
without strong justification. Our T-Index is at -42, unfortunately
the current very low interest rates makes it hard to discern any real
information from this number. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 24, 2008
Current
position: 50% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for
Friday. Early weakness gave way
to strength following some positive company forecasts. Our signal
turned "short", but it lacked some important "core"
components so we limited our exposure. I am looking for more positive
market strength next week so a small pull back Friday would be helpful.
Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 23, 2008
Current
position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for
Thursday. The market climbed
cautiously ahead of the Apple report. Our Signal lost strength, but
remains "long" and we reduced our market exposure. The program
continues to behave well and our accounts are once again at new highs for
the year. Looks like the market will move with Apple on Thursday. I
am writing this prior to the earnings release. Our T-Index
closed at -52. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 22, 2008
Current
position: 100% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x for Wednesday.
Our signal moved fully long. Tuesday's earnings news was bad, as is
expected in a recession type economy and helped the markets go lower.
Could be a little choppy the next few days as some positive carry over
from Google collides with the realities of a dual real estate and economic
down turn. After the first few days of May I believe the direction will be
very clear and negative. T-Index closed at -37. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 21, 2008
Current
position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Tuesday. Once
again we have a strong negative signal and we have gone fully to the down
side. B of A, hit with many bad loans, did not impress. Our T-Index
slipped to -33. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 18, 2008
Current
position: 100% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x for Monday.
Thursday our accounts were at an all time high. The Google news cost us on
Friday, but I would do it again under the same conditions. We can
only adjust for what we can determine. Surprise events will either help or
harm. Our signal has realigned to the Long side. The Google news did not
change the economics of the country or the stock market, it did not repair
the housing market. It will not change the upcoming earnings forecasts, it
only changed the outlook on Google. Just like the GE news last week
did not carry over into this Friday, it is most likely that the Google
news will not carry very far. But I do expect it to carry over into
Monday. Our T-Index closed at -23. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 17, 2008
Current
position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Friday. We
have an exceptionally strong "short" signal. Additionally,
in a poor economy most of the news is bad, so Fridays coming ahead of the
week end, usually does not do well. Of course this Friday could be
the exception, but our program is based on statistics, lose some,
hopefully win more. Our program is good at determining the most promising
direction in the absence of news to the contrary. We formulate our
forecast and make our trades a few minutes prior to the close. Thursday
after the bell Google came out with unexpected great earnings and
the company soared 17% in after market trading so it looks like we may be
in for some heavy lumps. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 16, 2008
Current
position: 75% money market, Short: 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for
Thursday. Intel's earnings
sparked a strong rally that held on all day and gained strength.
When it ended it gave us a weak short signal. The dollar fell and our
T-Index moved lower to -72. I would like to elaborate on John McCain
proposed suspension of the Federal gasoline tax for the summer. In
general I am for higher fuel taxes to prod reducing our dependence on oil,
but I am also in favor of stimulating the economy during downturns. So a
more elastic tax could do both. In the same vein it would be very good if
the government could "store" funds during boom periods to spend
on public works projects like rebuilding our infrastructure, during
recessions. Thus providing a functioning "dual" economy
(public/private) that could smooth out the dips. Getting government to
agree on such a system would be very difficult if not impossible, but
elastic taxes might be easier to accomplish. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 15, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Wednesday. The
market lost most of its early gains and closed just slightly
positive. We moved back into the money market 100%. By staying
out of the market when we do not have a convincing reason to be there we
are able to preserve capital for more promising situations. The dollar was
higher, but so was the price of oil which closed over $113 per barrel.
John McCain outlined some economic proposals which included temporary
suspension of the federal gasoline tax during the summer. Overall
they appeared sensible and I was glad to see them. March wholesale prices
had their second largest monthly increase in 33 years. On the plus side
after the market closed Intel announced a sale gain of 9% and put the
aftermarket in rally mode. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 14, 2008
Current
position Long: 75% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for
Tuesday. The market held up very
well after the Wachovia surprise loss and dividend cut. When the economy
is in a down turn we must expect to see more negative news than
positive. We do have a strong signal and the NDX showed some base building
on the short term charts. So for at least one day I expect we will
go higher. Our T-Index has gone more negative ( -67) and is in a
deflationary mode with very low interest rates, so this is not a problem. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 11, 2008
Current
position: Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq100 2x, 80% money market
for Monday. I expect some
carryover into Monday that should take us back to the market levels prior
to the large pop on April 1st. The probabilities may be overstating
the negativity as our signal has become less negative, though still a
short. Our T-Index has moved further into the deflationary negative area
now at -40. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 10, 2008
Current
position: Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq100 2x, 80% money market
for Friday. I expect traders to sell
into any early strength on Friday with the market eventually closing lower
and maybe even more aggressive selling on Monday. I will consider
increasing our short position on early strength at the morning fix. We got
the upswing in the dollar I talked about yesterday and it pushed the
metals and oil lower. Our T-Index moved more negative on the deflationary
side to -26. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 9, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Thursday. The
market showed good resistance to going much lower considering the bad
news. This left us with a money market signal and we exited our position
at the close. Interest rates fell and our T-Index moved to a -9 on the
deflationary side once again. We could be looking at another upswing in
the dollar and drop in oil, gold and commodity prices over the next few
days. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 8, 2008
Current
position: Short: 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq100 2x, 50% money market
for Wednesday. Our signal
remained negative, but not quite as strong. Our T-Index
is flat, now at only +1. Wednesday marks the first day of our new down
cycle that will be in effect for about two and a half weeks. The
first two cycles for 2008 worked out quite well. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 7, 2008
Current
position: Short: 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq100 2x, 50% money market for
Tuesday. Our signal reversed
itself and is now short. The early gains Monday mostly slipped away
but the Nyse managed to achieve its sixth consecutive positive
showing. A pull-back Tuesday or Wednesday should be in order.
Our probabilities are very one sided and negative, even more negative than
our signal strength would indicate. Our T-Index is flat and closed at a
+2. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 6, 2008
Current
position: Long 100% Rydex Nasdaq100 2x for Monday. We
have a strong signal and strong probabilities for Monday to close
higher. The administration is sending a proposal to congress to
provide new powers to the Fed to oversee market stability. So I am looking
for more up-side early in the week, but I believe the week could close
lower and continue lower over the following months. Last week we saw three
airlines fail "three". And there are more negatives
brewing. The carry-over from the over heated housing market is now
being felt in the rental market. Average apartment rents in NYC are
estimated at $2,750 per month. This is the stuff that stagflation is made
of. So we have deflation in housing prices, and stagflation in rental
prices in selected areas. Food and fuel prices linked to the falling
dollar are working their way higher on a retail level. High rents
eventually cause employees to move away and or push up wages. Cities that
lose population (Detroit etc.) eventually collapse as local taxes can't
support services. We appear to still be in the early stages of many
problems. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 3, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Friday. Another money market day.
The market held up with bad unemployment data but could not make much
headway. Our signal is very conflicted with both positive and negative
influences, leaving us with no choice but to remain on the
sidelines. T-Index closed exactly at zero.
Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 2, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Thursday. Sometimes
we just need patience as our signal remains flat for a fourth day.
Wednesday an early rally lost steam but did not give up much ground.
Our proprietary cycle program is looking for an end to the current
positive cycle (that started Feb 8th) in just 4 more days. This could
unfold as another rally most likely starting Friday and lasting through
Tuesday. Then I expect we could look forward to retesting, and most likely
breaking the lows over the following months. But of course we will still
take it one day at a time going in the direction that our program believes
carries the least risk
and the highest probability of gain. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
April 1, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Wednesday. A
number of positive news events jump-started the market Tuesday morning and
it never took a breather. The very consistent intra-day climb leads me to
think that it might continue for a while into Wednesday. However the
normal follow-up trading pattern after a strong up day combined with a
sharp decrease in the Vix, that we saw on Tuesday, is for the next two
days to be down, followed by two up days. Our signal did not confirm
a direction for Wednesday and we remain on the sidelines. Once again
we see a shift in mood. The dollar did well on Tuesday which helped the
rally. Our T-Index closed slightly positive. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 31, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Tuesday. Our
signal continues flat and we remain in the money market. I do not
have a clear trend direction and will wait for more information. Our
T-Index closed at -6 only slightly negative. The dollar closed higher with
most commodities ending lower which is positive. We only increase
our exposure to the markets when we are more certain about the markets
direction. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 28, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Monday. Our
signal turned flat and we closed out the quarter one day early and 16.4%
ahead. All accounts are at new all time highs. We secured
these gains while limiting our market exposure as we spent a good amount
of time in the money market. The program is running very well. For
the markets I am expecting another run higher over the next week or two
and I expect it to fail. Perhaps early earning reports will be positive. I
believe that one of the reasons for the downturn this past week was the
movement of funds out of the stock market and into the commodities markets
to cover margin calls due to the exchanges raising margin requirements.
This should have a dampening effect on commodity prices, which is good for
the economy. Although we have a flat signal I lean towards Monday
closing higher, perhaps after a slow start. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 27, 2008
Current
position: Short: 100%: 40% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 60% Rydex Inverse
OTC 2x for Friday. Our signal
became even more negative for Friday and we moved fully short. The
Vix normally increases as the market falls, but Thursday it moved lower,
another indication that there could be more negative follow through on
Friday. Fridays are also rather poor performers in downward trending
markets but nothing in investing is certain, it just means that the
probabilities are in our favor for a lower market. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 26, 2008
Current
position: Short: 40%: Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 20% Rydex Inverse
OTC 2x, 40% money market for Thursday. We increased our short
position in the S&P and added a small short position in the NDX 100
utilizing the Rydex 2x funds. Our signal became weaker and moved to
a solid "Short". I think we are in a topping pattern on
this small rally and that could extend for a number of days. We
usually prefer positions in the NDX over the S&P, but the S&P
appears to be weaker at this time as we saw today. Our T-index continues
to gain, now at -13 moving higher as money flows out of the 90 day
t-bills. The loss in the dollar and gains in commodities could put an
early end to the market rally that started on Friday.
Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 25, 2008
Current
position: 80% money market, Short 20%: Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund for
Wednesday. The market
climbed higher for a third day. The S&P is showing some signs of
being tired and we took a small short position in the S&P. I
believe the greater part of the rally is complete and we should see some
pause and adjustments. Market sentiment is still positive and should
continue positive for a short while. The market ignored some negative news
this week but more will come. T-bill rates continued higher and our
T-Index gained more ground to close at -17. We are going into the last few
days of the quarter and some mutual funds will make cosmetic adjustments
to their portfolios. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 24, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Tuesday.
Optimism rules for awhile. And although we are looking for more upside
over the next week or two we will still adhere to our disciplined approach
to the markets. Today we saw money flow out of t-bills and into the stock
market. Thursday the 90 day rate was .5%. Monday it more than doubled to
close at 1.01%. This shot our T-Index up from -242 to close at -85.
The dollar fell. Tuesday often moves opposite to Monday's direction but
the market is showing strength so we will wait and see. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 20, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Monday. Markets
are closed on Friday giving investors three days to think. We have a money
market signal that is leaning higher. Thursday the markets had a slow
start, then closed sharply higher but did not make up for the Wednesday
loss. Our T-Index plunged even lower to close at -242, very negative
indicating deflation, but not a problem as long as interest rates stay
low. Any deflation in the soaring food and energy prices would be welcome.
The 90 day t-bill rates hit a low of 0.2% closing at 0.5%. Money is
scrambling for safety and investors are willing to accept minimal interest
payments for that safety while they try to figure out their next
move. New long term views were posted this week,
read them. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 19, 2008
Current
position, 75% money market, Short 25% Rydex Inverse OTC
2x for Thursday. We have a
money market signal leaning lower. In addition a couple of rules of
thumb say that the second day after a large gain the market goes
lower. The same holds for the second day after a fed adjustment.
Wednesday early market strength dissolved as the dollar gained strength. It looks
like the Fed move has gotten the respect of the rest of the world.
Last Thursday our T-Index closed negative. On Friday its fall accelerated
and I said it was giving a deflationary alert (see March 14 comments
below). Now 5 trading days later we find the DBA (etf of soft commodities)
has fallen 13% and the DBC (broad commodity tracking fund) has fallen 7%. Oil and Gold
are also lower. 90 day T-Bills are now at 0.65%, the lowest I have seen
during the 15 years of my records. It appears the psychology of the
market place has changed. New long term views were posted this week,
read them. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 18, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Wednesday.
Investors liked the 3/4% cut in rates and voted the markets higher. Our
signal turned flat, but the markets behaved very well during the day and
that could lead to a higher Wednesday. Technicians liked the
bottoming action this week and could be inclined to jump on board. The 90
day T-Bills closed at .9%. Our T-Index is screaming deflation and closed
at -114. With interest rates as low as they are, the deflation alert will
not harm the market and I expect a general upwards market trend for the
next two to three weeks. Beyond that economic fears will probably
resurface. New long term views were posted this week. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 17, 2008
Current
position: Long 50% Rydex OTC 2x, 50% Money market for Tuesday. I
am looking for a small up-day. Our signal is strong, but the Fed meeting
could bring a surprise so we are keeping our exposure at 50%.
Like Enron the demise of Bear Stearns wiped out the savings of many
employees. J.P. Morgan will have to fend off law suites and try to
integrate 7,000 angry employees into their organization. I believe they
will have a hard time moving forward. With the exception of the no-bid
award at $2 per share the Fed did the right thing in protecting the
clients and keeping the dominos from falling throughout the industry. Bear
Stearns took the hit but was also a big part of the cause of the sub prime
mess. It is the Feds job to support the economy, not individual
companies. Friday I mentioned that our T-Index indicated a
deflationary condition and that falling prices of goods could be in
order. Today we saw a crack in commodity prices with the DBC ( an
ETF representing a broad range of commodities) down 4% as our T-Index
plunged to -75. I have posted a new long term forecast to discuss
these events and their implications for the economy and the stock market.
Not all of it will be bad news so read it now! Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 14, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Monday. One
day after Standard and Poor's assured the investing public that the worse
was over, Bear Stearns clients bailed out and left the 85 year old company
without funds. Although temporarily propped up, an unraveling
of the Bear Stearns investments could have major repercussions throughout
the investment community. One immediate effect was a fall in
interest rates moving our T-Index to -47, signaling a failing economy and
a deflation scare. This week S&P again downgraded earnings on the 500.
Bear Stearns is part of the S&P 500 so expect more ongoing
trouble. Deflation is far from peoples minds for the near term as
oil and food prices soar, but conditions could rapidly change leading to a downward price cycle
with
real-estate already leading the way. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 13, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Friday. Our
signal turned flat and is leaning slightly negative. Our probabilities are
mixed and our T-Index closed at -9. Standard and Poor's said they
thought that major banks had completed most of their write-offs and this
seemed to give stocks a push. Write-offs are generally overdone and
provide companies with a cushion to move forward. The banking index
BIX reached a new low a few days ago. Watch this index over the next two
months as earning come out again. Banks should start to pop if the
write-offs are really over. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 12, 2008
Current
position: 75% Money market, 25% Long: Rydex OTC 2x for
Thursday. We have a weak long
signal for Thursday. The probabilities as seen on our forecast page look
excellent, but there is one problem. Over the past 15 years the second
day following a large gain >4% on the NDX resulted in an average drop
of 1/2%. Because of this information we significantly reduced our
exposure. In addition the Fed action was not constructive to the dollar
and the dollar fell another 1.45% on Wednesday. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 11, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Wednesday. A
very nice up day increasing the gain in our accounts for 2008 to over
+8%. Our signal turned flat for Wednesday and slightly negative.
There is a chance that we will see some carry over into Wednesday,
especially if the Fed move brings support for the dollar. This would bring
relief from the high oil and commodity prices, but Tuesday's action did
not really support that theory. Over the past 15 years there is no
real pattern as to what happens the day after a 4% or greater move
in the NDX. since the total of the changes add up to less than 1/2%. The
changes ranged from under -6.5% to over 6.5%, much risk for little gain.
Our T-index improved a bit to +11. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 10, 2008
Current
position: Long 100% Rydex OTC 2x, for Tuesday. Our
signal improved and we moved fully long. The T-Index slipped to
neutral. The market continues to have little going for it long term,
but it seems to be priced right based on current earnings and interest
rates. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 7, 2008
Current
position: Long 50% Rydex OTC 2x, 50% money market for Monday. Our
accounts had a good week, but the markets did poorly. Monday's buy
signal is not very strong and with the market closing below even, we limited
our exposure to 50%. Our T-Index closed higher at +8. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 6, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Friday. For
Friday we have a rare combination of a flat signal with strong positive
historical probabilities for the NDX. I expect that the market will
turn higher, even though Fridays are generally weak in down trending
markets. Our T-Index closed at -1, basically flat. We want to
see that indicator stay above zero. The recent rapid gains in commodities
suggests that at some point there will be some catalyst to cause the
dollar to rally, initiating a plunge in oil prices, grains and gold, but I
don't see anything on the horizon. If any of my readers can point out some
trigger, send me an email, I would like to hear your opinions. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 5, 2008
Current
position: 100% money market for Thursday. After
two days of gains our signal returned to a flat position and we moved
fully into the money market. Our T-Index slipped once again and closed at
+11, now very much in danger of going negative. Clinton once again hinted
at a combined Obama/Clinton ticket and most likely is hoping for an offer
since she can not reasonably win based on the present delegate
count. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 4, 2008
Current
position: Long 100% Rydex OTC 2x for Wednesday.
It appears that we are seeing bottoming action on the charts. A
chart of the NDX lows shows a triple bottom. I think it will hold up for a
while. There are some cracks in the commodity "up-move" and
Tuesday it looked like some money came out of the commodity market and
into stocks. Our signal got stronger and we remain 100% long. Our
T-Index however slipped to +32. Were this to go negative (under the
conditions of the ongoing earnings decline we see from Standard and
Poor's), I would then expect a significant increase in the rate of the
market decline. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 3, 2008
Current
position: Long 100% Rydex OTC 2x for Tuesday. For
the first time in quite a while we have a strong "long" signal
and have entered back into the market 100%. The dollar hit another low on
Monday pushing oil, gold, and grain
higher.
Tuesday's primaries should be interesting with most eyes on Texas and
Ohio. The Financial Times had a section on why they thought Clinton had
fallen behind. And applied a quotation from Groucho Marx "The
secret to success in life is sincerity. If you can fake that, you've got
it made." Either she is sincere and doesn't look it, or isn't and
can't fake it. As for Obama, he is either sincere or does a very
good job faking it. Our T-Index continues to fall but is
still strong closing at +41. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
March 2, 2008
Current
position, 100% money market for Monday. There
has been an increase in the money trading back and forth between the
commodities markets and the stock market. This is similar to the more
standard movements between the bond and stock markets. It adds another
layer of complexity and opportunity for trading. With Friday being weak I
expect to see some further weakness on Monday morning. The market is also
near the old lows so we could see some more testing, which could get
scary. Standard and Poor's listed corporations continue to report
lower earnings and our "earnings/interest rate/pricing" model
shows the market indices dragging along their historical lower supporting boundaries.
Under these conditions the market is more likely to experience a continuous
slow slide rather than a rapid drop as seen in 1987 and 2000 when the
market was over valued by these measures. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
February 28, 2008
Current
position, 100% money market for Friday. The
market has flattened and we have been in the money market for five days.
The dollar was beaten down this week pushing up the cost for food and
oil. The Index futures markets were lower at the close indicating
that more selling could be in store at the open. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
February 27, 2008
Current
position, 100% money market for Thursday. Our
signal remains flat but is leaning slightly lower. Our T-Index, though still
strong at +57 has fallen rapidly in the last two weeks. We continue
to wait for a stronger signal. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
February 26, 2008
Current
position, 100% money market for Wednesday. Our
signal remains neutral. The current focus is on commodity prices and
inflation. Wheat has doubled since last year and jumped 34% since
the start of this year. Oil closed over $100/b. This is external
inflation caused by foreign demand. Raising interest rates would not
help very much. If you look at the reported Standard and Poors
500 earnings you would see nearly weekly downward revisions. This is a
failing economy and needs the rate cuts, which in a small way
unfortunately feeds the inflation. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
February 25, 2008
Current
position, 100% money market for Tuesday. We
closed out our partial short position at the morning fix. Our signal
remains neutral and leaning positive. The T-Index is slipping and closed
at +73 still very strong. We are waiting for a stronger signal to give us
direction. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
February 24, 2008
Current
position, 75% money market, Short 25% Rydex Inverse OTC
2x for Monday. The one day
reversal on Friday should carry over into Monday, triggering some shorts
to cover. So it looks like our expected up cycle may start one day early.
Our signal turned flat and leaning positive at the close so we most likely
will get dinged on our partial short exposure.
Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
February 21, 2008
Current
position, Short: 75% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x, 25% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x
for Friday. Thursday's decline replaced
Wednesday's gain and from my point of view made the market very vulnerable
to further downside movement over the next two trading days. Our cycle
program shows this short term decline coming to an end on Monday with a
longer term positive cycle starting on Tuesday. Also the normal market
pattern is for Monday to follow Friday's direction. With our signal
"short" for Friday we could be looking for a test of the closing
lows. The S&P is less than 2.5% away and the NDX is only 1.5% away. We
are fully short in anticipation.
Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
February 20, 2008
Current
position, Short: 37% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x, 63% money market for
Wednesday. The stronger than expected day on Wednesday should lead
to some weakness on Thursday. We still have a neutral signal that is
leaning a bit negative. Tuesday's election results leads to the
question. Can Obama extract the US from the costs of war in time to
pay for the social programs and save the economy? Or will it be one
cost upon the other? Investors will have to weigh these issues as
the drama unfolds. Please
pick up your free password
so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free
"T" index software.
Comments:
February 19, 2008
Current
position, Shor |
