|
Daily
Market Commentary (and
next day's position)
Comments
made on July 25, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
Long |
44.5.%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
55.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
44.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
61.5%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
55.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
34.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
market is in a much better position to launch a recovery attempt
from this level. The NDX hit another new recent low and
triggered a bottom signal. The market launched an attempt to go
higher but gave most of it up late in the day. We are
holding our long position. Our signal is showing a two to one
chance of going higher.
|
Comments
made on July 24, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
45.%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
56%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
45%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
62%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
56%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
35%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
reduced our long position by 10%. The drop, though already
close to a bottom has not triggered our bottom indicator and
there was very little buying on Wednesday leaving the market
lower without any attempt at a recovery. Big tech and AI
stocks took large hits. TSLA dropped over 12%. Commodities fell
across the board with almost 9 going down for each gainer.
Creptocurrency also got slammed. Even Trump media got a wack
with a 7% drop.
|
Comments
made on July 23, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
45.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
66%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
45.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
66%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
66%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
34%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We are holding our long position.
Earnings have started to hit. In this topsy-turvy world If the
markets go down on bad earnings the pundits will say the
earnings drove them down. If the markets go up on bad earnings
they will say the poor earnings will encourage the FED to cut
rates. Only problem is good or bad earnings can still bring an
unexpected response some of the time.
Tesla
fell on an earnings miss sending the aftermarket lower, Google's
earnings were better than expected and the stock also went down.
Strange.
|
Comments
made on July 22, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
45.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
66%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
45.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
66%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
66%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
34%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| I
expect the market strength to carry over into Tuesday. We
increased our exposure. The aftermarket has slipped a little but
is mostly holding on to Monday's gains. Trump's Vance pick is
too far right to get the bulk of the middle of the road voters
and with Harris replacing Biden the fight will be much closer
and those votes are probably required for a win by both
sides.
|
Comments
made on July 21, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
25.8%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
34.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
25.8%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
34.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
20.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
continue to hold our reduced exposure "long" position.
With Biden leaving the race there is one less item of
uncertainty and that should help the "up"
position.
|
Comments
made on July 19, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
Long |
25.8%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
34.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
25.8%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
34.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
20.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| After
early gains and a retreat there was a strong second attempt to
go positive for the NDX but it failed. There was some buying in
the AI sector and there should be another attempt to go higher
on Friday. This market will not retreat too much as the much
anticipated rate cut is still on the table. Our signal remained
positive but is not strong and we cut back our long position by
half. We moved our conservative program into the money
market.
|
Comments
made on July 17, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Once
the big name tech stocks (NVDA etc) started falling they just
kept going. I have solved a good portion of the problem of
being limited to a trade cut off at 5 min prior to the close but
there is more to do as seen by Wednesday's long position that
did change to a short at the close. My next challenge is
streamlining my program to gain a few minutes near the close.
Changes very near the close do not happen very often and changes
that lead to large problems like we just experienced happen less
often than that, but they do occasionally occur. If I can
manage to avoid even one large bad position it will be well
worth the effort especially now that the rest of the program is
working well and doing an excellent job.
|
Comments
made on July 16, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
continue to hold long. Saw some rotation out of the high
flying AI stocks, but by the close the NDX nudged itself above
zero. Biden is proposing changes to the supreme court to plug up
the ethics violations and perhaps put limits on presidential
immunity.
|
Comments
made on July 15, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
are holding our long position into Tuesday. The volatility
remains low but is slowly building which should be helpful to us
as it makes the markets even easier to read and makes returns
higher.
The high profile civil rights
attorney Al Sharpton was stabbed in 1991 in New York. Similar to
Mr.Trump both used inflammatory language and got a lot of press
coverage. Mr Sharpton toned down his rhetoric after the close
call on his life, perhaps Mr Trump will also. Trump had
said "There are good people on both sides", This shows
that there are also crazies on both sides.
|
Comments
made on July 14, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved back to the long side for Monday. The attempted
assassination of Trump by what appears to be a lone 20 year old,
should not cause very much disruption in the markets on Monday
(in my opinion). It does not appear that any of the key
categories, ie foreign, alien, member of a radical organization,
minority, skilled professional assassin, etc. have been tagged.
But it will bring more headaches to the NRA, especially since it
appears the weapon was an assault rifle, and it will cause more
problems for the secret service who did not see the shooter in
time and then ended his life before they were able to
interrogate him.
|
Comments
made on July 11, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
short |
26.25%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
35%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
17.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
35%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
17.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved some capital into the inverse funds at about half our
current normal rate. The overall direction of the market is
higher and the eventual rate cut should boost an already healthy
economy even higher. So we do not want to go too far against the
prevailing winds. Still our program is looking for some more
limited down side.
|
Comments
made on July 10, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Even
more
conflicting data. Strong gain on Wednesday for the markets.
Looks like we may be in a blow off phase as the market is only
going one way.
|
Comments
made on July 9, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| More
conflicting data, very small market price changes and a six
straight day market climb in the NDX and S&P lead me to
believe the safest trade for Wednesday is the money market.
|
Comments
made on July 8, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
short |
26.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
35.4%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
28%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
35%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
17.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| The
market is waiting for the FED to say when they will cut rates.
It is overall a one way up market but we are taking a small
short position for Tuesday, following our program. .
|
Comments
made on July 5, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70.7%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42.4%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
are holding our long position into Friday. With regards to
the debate, most likely Biden suffered a mild TIA which
temporarily impedes the flow of blood to the brain. Unlike a
stroke TIAs do not cause permanent damage because blood flow is
quickly restored. The instantaneous lack of oxygen to the brain
does cause a momentary lack of clarity in thinking. Years can
pass between incidents.
|
Comments
made on July 4, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
Long |
52.7%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70.2%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42.2%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
are holding our long position into Friday. With regards to
the debate, most likely Biden suffered a mild TIA which
temporarily impedes the flow of blood to the brain. Unlike a
stroke TIAs do not cause permanent damage because blood flow is
quickly restored. The instantaneous lack of oxygen to the brain
does cause a momentary lack of clarity in thinking. Years can
pass between incidents.
|
Comments
made on July 2, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved back to the long side for the shortened trading day on
Wednesday. Our signals are
aligned to the upside. Possible problems are the new all time
high in the NDX and the 20,000 level which could create a pause
in the markets, especially since the market did gain 1% on
Tuesday. .
|
Comments
made on July 1, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| We
moved into the money market at the close. Market strength came
in near the close, but the market may need to take a pause in
this shortened week as our signals are moderately leaning to the
down side
|
Comments
made on June 30, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved back to the long side for Monday. Our signals are
aligned to the upside. The supreme court has saved Trump while
the democrats ponder their next and maybe most significant
move.
|
Comments
made on June 27, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| We
moved into the money market at the close giving us another
positive week. Influences were mixed, probabilities were
negative and the end of day trading was not encouraging.
The presidential debates Thursday evening seemed to have
influenced the aftermarket, which turned higher.
|
Comments
made on June 26, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
36.7%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
49.1%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
36.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
49.1%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
49.1%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
29.4%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
signals became mixed at the close. The market behavior during
the last hour was not stable leading me to reduce our exposure
in each program by 30%. It probably was not enough as the
aftermarket immediately turned weak as soon as the market
closed.
|
Comments
made on June 25, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved back to the long side for Wednesday. Our signals are
aligned but I am not looking for a large up move as Tuesdays
gain may have taken some of the energy out of
it.
|
Comments
made on June 24, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
market fell over 1% on Monday. We continue to have a mixed
signal and will hold for another day.
|
Comments
made on June 23, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Mixed
signal for Monday. We will hold for a day.
|
Comments
made on June 20, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
short |
31.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
42%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
28%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
42%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
25%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Volatility
remains weak but it is increasing. We have a short signal for
Friday and I have reversed our position and reduced our exposure
for Friday. The market got a little ahead of itself early
on Thursday and may have a little more correction to
go.
|
Comments
made on June 18, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
71%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70.5%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
71%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42.6%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Ever
so slight up-tick on Tuesday and we hold again for Thursday. For
the NDX 10 of the last 12 days were higher, as the NDX is in a
very strong rally.
|
Comments
made on June 17, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
71%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70.5%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
71%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42.6%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Holding
our long position into Tuesday. Signal remains
strong.
|
Comments
made on June 14, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved long again.
|
Comments
made on June 13, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Expectations
of a rate cut while the overall economy remains relatively
healthy is keeping the market pumped. We have another
money market day for Friday.
|
Comments
made on June 12, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Both
the release of the CPI numbers and the Fed decision comments
came on the same day and the markets put in a decent day. Looks
like more tomorrow as we moved to our normal long position and
the aftermarket moved higher.
|
Comments
made on June 11, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Misaligned
influences require that we remain in the money market another
day. Probabilities appear very flat.
|
Comments
made on June 10, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Negative
influences have moved back into the market for Tuesday, but we
are under such low volatility conditions that moving into the
money market is a safer choice. I expect more upside later
in the week.
|
Comments
made on June 7, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
have taken our normal "long" position for Monday. Very
nice week for us as we were correct every day, leveraged on the
long days and only partially short on the very small down
days. The jobs report was stronger than expected while
combined with downward revised previous month numbers. These
numbers are not as important as the inflation numbers so I do
not expect them to sink the markets. The FED is still expected
to cut rates later in the year.
|
Comments
made on June 6, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
short |
10.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
8.4%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| There
was a negligible pull back on Thursday and we held our very
small inverse position into Friday.
|
Comments
made on June 5, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
short |
10.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
8.4%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| We
sold our "long" position at the close and moved into a
very small "short" position. Yesterday I gave
many reasons for the uptrend and against inflation expectations.
For Thursday we have a conflict between the up-to-the minute
influences which are negative and the longer term influences
which are positive. I expect some more early upside that might
start to fall off later in the day.
|
Comments
made on June 4, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
signal of Wednesday remains strong and we continue to hold out
Long position. Fundamentally we are seeing commodity prices
falling across the board. Crude oil is about where it was
16 years ago. Silver is below where it peaked over 40 years ago
and US wheat is where it peaked about 27 years ago. Aluminum is
where it peaked about 13 years ago. Copper remains strong
but sits below the highs of 4 years ago while palladium is less
than 35% of where it reached 4 years ago. Considering inflation
every commodity is in a downtrend and that is a good thing with
regards to inflation. The US dollar is sitting in the upper
range that it has seen in the past 36 years. This also helps
keep inflation down. Our economic readings remain positive and
combined with continued low volatility keeps us positive
regarding the ongoing health of the market. The low
volatility has kept the market from running away with itself or
collapsing.
|
Comments
made on June 3, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
are holding our long position into Tuesday. The markets
today started off higher, gave it all up and regained most of it
to close higher. We have a stronger signal for Tuesday.
|
Comments
made on June 2, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Glad
to not see riots over the weekend. Perhaps fewer people
are willing to go to prison after the first group in 2020. There
are enough real problems to contend with, no sense trying to
create new ones. The stock market, though hit with random
up and down days, remains in a low volatility condition which
favors the up side. We have taken a normal long position for
Monday.
|
Comments
made on May 30, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| I was
thinking that the recent market drop was a lightening of
holdings prior to the Trump verdict but it being NYC there
wasn't any attempt at craziness like we saw in DC 3 years ago.
The markets could still be on alert for violence as the 34 times
convicted Trump is not confined nor muted and he tends to rev up
his followers. We moved into the money market for Friday. Our
signal is mixed.
|
Comments
made on May 29, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
52.%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
69.5%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
41.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
markets turned lower on Wednesday and the selling increased near
the close. The aftermarket was lower after the close so we will
be fighting an up-hill battle on Thursday.
|
Comments
made on May 28, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| I
have moved back to our normal long position for Wednesday. Both
the probability of going higher and the size of possible return
to size of loss lean to the long side.
|
Comments
made on May 27, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
37.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
50%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
37.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
50%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
50%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Back
to the long side for Tuesday. This signal shows a strong
probability of going higher but it also shows a larger amount
down than gain to the up-side, so we took a reduced-exposure,
long position. I
have worked with Microsoft AI CO:Pilot to flush out reasoning for a decline
in the quality of life in the United States but find that
CO:Pilot is not capable up understanding what numbers mean. If
there is an error in the data it uses it can't understand that 5
is less than 12 and will defend the incorrect numbers because it
has them in its data base. Too bad. Microsoft should be able to
spot inconsistencies in its own statements. But it does say its
useless things with a solid grasp of language skills. Form over
content. The Chat GPT group seems to have a better handle on it
and I will continue my project with them.
|
Comments
made on May 23, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Earnings
from Nvidia beat estimates after the close on Wednesday and sent
the stock up over 9% today. The NDX followed but closed lower on
interest rate concerns. Our probabilities are negative, but
looking at it with a more narrow focus shows a positive
component for Friday so we are holding our money market
position.
|
Comments
made on May 22, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
FED did exactly as most expected and the market had a mini fit
and recovered almost back to the prior close. Our signal
moved neutral for Thursday. Normally the market likes the
day after a FED announcement but we will wait as probabilities
are leaning to the down side.
|
Comments
made on May 21, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
45%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
60%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
45%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
60%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
60%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
36%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
are continuing to hold our long position into Wednesday. The
main negative I see is the shrinking volatility. The lower the
volatility the more easily the market can be pushed around by
random news as it does not have a strong direction of its own.
Currently the volatility (as we measure it ) is only 40% of the
thirty year median and volatilities this low have occurred less
than 4% of the time over the past 30 years.
|
Comments
made on May 20, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
45%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
60%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
45%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
60%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
60%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
36%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Back
to the long side for Tuesday. I am finalizing our exposure
levels and today's signal level is strong, but not
exceptional.
|
Comments
made on May 19, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Interest
rates and low volatility are having positive influences on
the market while price changes are having a negative
influence. This is giving us a slightly negative force
countered by positive FED expectations for interest rate cuts.
FED expectations are not something that can give reliable
numerical inputs. We remain in the money market.
|
Comments
made on May 16, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Once
again our probabilities are leaning lower but not strong enough
to take a position. We moved into the Money market for Friday.
|
Comments
made on May 15, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
52.9.%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70.6%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.9.%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70.2%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70.6%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| I
am expecting an extension of the rally for another day. This
stealth rally is now out in the open.
Mime stocks GME and
AMC are running amok being manipulated by chorus masters
followed by thousands of minions as the SEC trys to regain
control. One report says an "Elite" hedge fund bought
one million GME shares prior to the 400% run up.
Biden, following Trumps lead, has implemented tariffs
on EVs, solar cells, steel and aluminum products, semiconductors
and other goods from China. The world's experience with tariffs has shown
that they are bad for the population and the economy, by raising
prices and creating a monopoly where one did not exist for the
benefit of a few corporations.
|
Comments
made on May 14, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
markets have been crawling higher. I suspect that it was related
to the PPI data which tends to feed the CPI data. Although the
PPI data was not very good they did revise the prior months
downward and that could now be hitting this current month's
CPI. In any event it triggered a "long" signal for us and we
moved back to our recent level of exposure. We could see a
challenge to the recent intra day high in the NDX of 18464.7
which is about 3/4% higher than Tuesday's close.
|
Comments
made on May 13, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
short |
17.3%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Holding
our small inverse position. CPI information will be
released on Wednesday and the markets are holding in
anticipation.
|
Comments
made on May 12, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
17.3%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
Long |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Holding
our small inverse position.. Volatility is shrinking and that
will help the long side, but the level is still within a normal
trading range.
|
Comments
made on May 9, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
Long |
17.3%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
Long |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Our
negative signal is a little more negative but the FED hangs over
head keeping the market from moving very much lower. I have
taken a very small inverse position, about 1/3 of normal.
|
Comments
made on May 8, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
market pause continues with the S&P500 going unchanged and
the NDX off less than -.04%. Our signal remains neutral, the
market appears fully balanced for the immediate future. *[Our
website failed to update the past few days due to some changes
at the host server but it is fully operational now.]
|
Comments
made on May 7, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Finally
we have a market pause. Our signal turned fully neutral and we
are now ready for the next signal.
|
Comments
made on May 6, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
market is in a sharp rally phase and could easily test the
recent tops. It is being pushed higher by Powell's
statement that he would not raise rates higher. That statement
has over-ridden our signals the past two days and we took cover
in the money market, staying there another day.
|
Comments
made on May 5, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| We are
holding the money market for Monday. I expect we will be back to
normal trading by then. 90 day T-Bills rates have been steady
since February holding between 5.22% and 5.25%, while the 10
year Notes have a wider range between 4.09% and 4.7%. The NDX is
a little above the midpoint of its' range during the same time
frame.
|
Comments
made on May 2, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Our
expected up-move on Thursday appears to have had a little help
from reported comments by the FED's Powell that rates would not
be raised any higher. Because of that and some other
positives I did not think it wise to pursue our signal's
downward leaning. As of this writing the Aftermarket level of
the NDX is very close to the high of Wednesday.
|
Comments
made on May 1, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
markets fell over -2.6% during the two days we spent in the
money market and our signal moved back to the plus side for
Thursday. The aftermarket was positive as of this
writing.
|
Comments
made on April 30, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Fed
announcement on Wednesday. Players are expecting protracted
higher interest rates and positioned themselves for bad news.
The NDX closed on the low of the day from my readings and that
usually indicates an overly pessimistic market with a rebound
the following day. What ever the FED does they do it with the
intention to help the economy. And that is the tax paying
economy. That is not the local business economy nor the general
population which is only a tool of production and has an
inflationary component. The FED helps the largest multinational
corporations. The interests of those corporations and the
population are not necessarily aligned. Interest
rates and the dollar were higher on Tuesday. Our signal is for
the market to go lower but FED days can be disruptive. There is
a very high chance the FED will hold and wait, this has been
known for awhile. I think in this case no news is neutral news
and we are staying out another day.
|
Comments
made on April 29, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Moderate
gain for the day and we moved fully into the money market. The
signal is leaning lower but it is a weak signal and more subject
to being buffeted by random news. I don't expect much in the way
of direction at the next Fed meeting on Tuesday and
Wednesday.
|
Comments
made on April 28, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
reversed our position and increased our exposure for
Monday.
|
Comments
made on April 25, 2024
Current
position for
Friday
| Primary |
short |
28%
|
Rydex
Inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
37.8%
|
Rydex
Inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
31.5%
|
Rydex
Inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
37.8%
|
Rydex
Inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
23.2%
|
Rydex
Inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| It
was our first "short" signal in awhile and I was
concerned about Tech earnings reports running us off the road.
So I trimmed way back on our exposure, and it was a good thing
to do as we ran straight into Alphabet's and Microsoft's strong
earnings reports after the close on Thursday. The NDX was
pushed up well over 1% in the aftermarket. With
Donald Trump busy with his trials it allowed for the emergence
of the globalist Republicans passing the Ukraine arms bill
against the wishes of the anti-globalist Republicans. The mice
play when the cat's away.
|
Comments
made on April 24, 2024 Current
position for
Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
had a strong long signal at the close and held our position.
After the close Meta announced increased expenses going forward
on AI and reduced expectations for earnings. The stock dropped
more than 15% as investors have seen Meta run off half cocked
before (The Metaverse). This time Mr Zuckerberg should see a
better return on the AI that is going into target marketing if
it isn't drained by the AI for the Metaverse, and of course I
could be wrong both ways. Meta's drop sent tech lower in the
aftermarket. The more I ask questions of Chat GPT and
Copilot the more I realize how limited they really are. Even
when they have access to the information they just seem to be
unable to answer the actual questions instead they try to answer
something else, related but not what was
asked.
|
Comments
made on April 23, 2024 Current
position for
Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Our
long signal is stronger today and we increased our exposure.
TSLA had earnings worse than estimated, but after a long hard
decline and some words about moving faster on affordable cars
and autonomous cars the stock was up strong in the aftermarket.
The worse than estimated earnings were expected and Tesla's
bounce brought many big name tech stocks with it. This should
spread across the NDX companies on Wednesday (in my opinion).
Musk is convinced that all electric will win out over hybrid but
the fear of getting stranded and the struggle to find power will
always be in the way unless a small, light, inexpensive,
non-electric (gasoline?) charging unit could be safely
tucked away for seamless integration in emergencies.
|
Comments
made on April 22, 2024 Current
position for
Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
41%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
55%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
41%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
55%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
55%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
32.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
signal remains long but there are some negative elements that
are filtering in, so I have reduced our exposure again. I expect
that there will be another dip lower soon, as we have not had a
bottoming signal.
|
Comments
made on April 21, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
62%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
62%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
62%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
Israel retaliatory strike was mild. I read only three missiles
were fired. Looks like it was a token reply and information
gathering attack. Hopefully that will help quiet things down for
awhile. I took a look at the markets during and after 911, The
S&P 500 had a PE ratio of 36.9 on September 1 2001. As of
April 1 of this year it was 28.33. The NDX fell over 8% from
where it closed on Sept 10 til where it closed the next trading
day on Sept 17. It continued to fall for 4 more days then
rebounded over 5.5% after losing more than 17%. The past six
days the market fell about 7%, with one of those days slightly
positive. The expectation is that the drop is still within a day
of the bottom. I did trim back our exposure about 10%
going into the weekend.
|
Comments
made on April 18, 2024 Current
position for
Friday
| Primary |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
41%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Looks
like Israel has managed to blow us something in Iran. No details
at this time but it sent the markets lower in the aftermarket.
Other than that the markets are close to a
rebound.
|
Comments
made on April 17, 2024 Current
position for
Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
41%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Another
ugly day. We are holding "long" into Thursday. Biden
told an audience in Pennsylvania that he wanted to increase
tariffs on Chinese steel from 7.5% to 25%. I hope it was
only election talk and he isn't serious. Tariffs are very
inflationary. Trump put in a series of tariffs that acted as a
very large tax on the population. Biden did not relieve most of
them and this latest statement will just make it worse. Tariffs
on steel will increase most machinery, appliance, automobile and
housing costs.
|
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Don't confuse brains with
a bull market.
-----Humphrey Neil
|
