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Daily Market Commentary

 

Comments: July 3, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Happy fourth to all. We squeaked through the week with a small gain.  But this is a dangerous market with oil providing some bad cross winds. To counter this problem we now have an oil component that can give us some additional insight.  This lets us utilize the oil influence to better sort out hazy signals. We closed the day with a slightly negative, signal for Monday. Our oil component had the NDX leaning to the up-side. We moved in favor of caution and 100% into the money market, preferring to pick up a little interest over the three day weekend.  Recent market behavior has punished even the fertilizer group, knocking them down 15%-20% in the past two weeks. Our method of investing one-day at-a-time keeps your money liquid and guards against being swept away with the masses when a market tanks. Over the last 30 months we have outperformed the average hedge fund by well over 2 to1. Call or email for our information package.  Our rates are low and we don't hold your money, we just send our signals to your account at Rydex or Jefferson National. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: July 2, 2008

Current position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Thursday. The markets were battered today after being up earlier. We gave up most of yesterday's gains and slightly increased our exposure for Thursday.  Thursday is a shortened pre-holiday trading day with Rydex closing shop at 12:45PM Eastern time.  Treasury Secretary Paulson picked a bad day to talk about the bank failure process. Many watching were probably thinking "uh-oh here comes another one".  Our signal weakened at the close going from a mild "long" to a "money market" but we were already committed at 37.5%. Hopefully the shortened day will prevent much bloodshed. On the positive side our oil related indicators are calling for a small recovery in the NDX for Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: July 1, 2008

Current position: 25% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Wednesday.  We have a very confused signal for Wednesday. Strong indications that it could move either way and unsteady going into the close.  We reduced our exposure to 25% long. Our T-Index climbed to +37, a good sign. The NDX hit a short term low today and closed near its high, and looking at the charts, this is usually another good sign for the up-side. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 30, 2008

Current position: 50% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday.   The NDX dropped a full percent and closed on its low. Good chance for a recovery on Tuesday.  We are remaining only partially invested as this oil drama plays out.  Our T-Index improved slightly to +24 slowing its descent. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 27, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  We held our money market position for Monday.  Monday is the last day of the quarter.  June was a difficult month, we slipped about 1% while the indexes slipped about 8%.  We had a decent quarter gaining 4.7% and are ahead year-to-date at just under 22%. Our T-Index closed at +15 and is slipping slowly.  With the market fundamentally oversold by our criteria I expect it will find its legs soon and we should get a small rally. But I don't expect any great move until September.  Our signal remains flat so I don't mind waiting for the next move. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 26, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  The market started down after the close Wednesday and had negative climatic activity on Thursday with the NDX closing down over 4% and on the lows of the day. The rush for the exits from General Motors, down over 10% at the open, was the probable catalyst.  When an index closes on the lows is usually good for a bounce, but we trade prior to the close and our signal was 100% money market. We will wait for a less dramatic opportunity.  The NDX, Dow, NYSE, and S&P all closed on their lows.  Meanwhile our fundamental component which measures earnings and interest rates signaled a "buy" indicating that the market was historically oversold from a value point of view.  Looks like we are at or very near a short term bottom.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 25, 2008

Current position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Thursday.  Both the Fed and the market acted as expected. Our signal carried over unchanged and the pullback from Wednesday's highs suggests to me that there is a little more upside for Thursday. However since we did not see an increase in signal strength we reduced our exposure.  The aftermarket is has turned lower but we are now only partially exposed and comfortable.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 24, 2008

Current position: 50% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Wednesday is Fed decision day, but most believe that the rates will remain unchanged.  Raising rates in the US will only further hurt our economy and not slow inflation which is mostly coming from outside the US.  Lowering already low rates will not help the economy since those rates would not translate into many loans that would help the broad economy, as lenders have tightened the grip on funds. So expect rates to hold, and the market to stage a small rally.  We continue to keep our exposure somewhat limited.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 23, 2008

Current position: Short, 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Tuesday.  Although the Dow remained basically unchanged, we gained enough through the drop in the NDX, to go positive for the month of June.  Our signal has become less negative and we reduced our exposure accordingly.  Looking at the NDX I see neither signs of a turnaround or signs of a selling climax. We are stepping though this period cautiously.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 20, 2008

Current position: Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Monday.  Our signal remains unchanged for Monday and it looks like Monday could be exciting judging from the negative amplitude posted on our probability chart.  Our accounts had a good week and we are back over +22.5% for 2008. Our T-Index has been slowly losing ground and now sits at +27, were it to go negative at this point it would be an indication of more negative market pressure.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

   

Comments: June 19, 2008

Current position: Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Friday.  Today's signal is a medium strength short and we continue to limit our exposure, but pleased to have gained about 2.4% in Thursday's up move. Oil traders are beginning to feel the negative pressure.  First it was the dollar making upward overtures, then trading regulations and now China says it will raise fuel prices, which may mean cuts in the subsidy to users.  Many markets outside of Europe are seeing much greater inflationary pressure than we are, so there will be more pressure world wide to slow growth. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

   

Comments: June 18, 2008

Current position: 75% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Thursday. Signal strength improved significantly and we increased our market exposure to 75%. Some regulation is underway to curtail speculative oil trading.  London is limiting trading.  I expect regulatory focus will have some downward influence on oil prices.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 17, 2008

Current position: 25% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Wednesday.  Every time we find a few days going against us I dig deeper into the program to see if I missed some gem. This time was no exception and we will be better off going forward.  I am looking forward to an excellent second half of the year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 16, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Oil hit new highs today but the NDX did not seem to care, it did not seem to care when oil backed off to close lower either.  We may spend another day of two evaluating these markets.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 15, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Recent trading indicates that the movement oil is currently swinging the stock markets. This action started about May 15 and I expect that it is a temporary condition which the markets will adjust to. We will be extra cautious since this type of activity can be unsettling.  More of our long term view posted today.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 12, 2008

Current position: Short, 75% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Friday.  The inverse relationship between oil and and the stock market has become very tight and the time delay has been reduced.  Early this year a large change in oil price would be reflected the following day with an opposite move in the stock market, but starting in April we saw the link tighten. By mid-May the lag was removed and the oil-stock market link was very strong.  You can see this by doing a regression analysis on the daily changes in oil and the NDX. This adjustment comes at the expense of some other long time relationships and has become the "fashionable" indicator for day traders.  If you have a real time system you can watch the "uso" etf.  Our indicators turned very negative and we moved 75% Short.  Check our recent long term posting.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

 

Comments: June 11, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  For our accounts this was our third worst trading day since January 2006.  Good thing those days are rare. It erased our gain for June.  We are still ahead of the NDX and S&P for June, and we remain about 21% ahead for 2008.  There is always risk in trading.  Today oil was the culprit.  Once again this week the NDX closed on the low of the day. This leads us to believe that there is a good chance the market will rally from here and the worse may be over for a while.  On the negative side the climb in oil will move some more money out of stocks and into commodities.  I have posted a new, brief, long term forecast.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 10, 2008

Current position: 100% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x for Wednesday.  This is our first 100% long position since April 22.  Our signal is strong and the probabilities look good for both the NDX and the SPX.  The dollar moved higher today and oil lower. Tuesday's stock market started lower but did not dip any further.  Interest rates climbed. Last fall we talked about the China market moving into a blow-off phase.  A quick check now shows that the Shanghai index has lost close to half its value since mid October.  With lots of talk about world demand for oil it would seem that oil will just continue to rise, but markets don't work that way.  Expect at some point to see a large drop in oil prices. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 9, 2008

Current position: Short, 37.5% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Tuesday.  When the NDX closed on the low of the day Friday I was concerned that the market might have reached a turn around point. Monday morning at the early fix I moved half of our position into the money market to limit our risk for the rest of the day.  By the close we had another strong "short" signal, but the discrepancy between the direction of the NDX and the other markets was a cause for concern, and I limited our exposure to 37.5%.  Things should be more clear in a day or two.  A large part of making money is avoiding over-exposure in uncertain markets.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 6, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% Rydex Inverse Dow 2x for Monday. Oil spiked higher Friday continuing Thursday's trend. The NDX had a very negative day loosing more than 3%.  This combined with our strong negative signal leads me to believe the down trend will continue on Monday.  Brazil ewz along with the oil service index xoi were down both of these generally move with the price of oil. It appears that these indexes are anticipation a weakening of the economy and an eventual fall in oil prices.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

 

Comments: June 5, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Strong up day all around for the markets and that unfortunately includes oil and most commodities as the dollar fell. Our signal pulled back some, and combined with the 4% jump in oil prices I can't see much more upside progress.  Our accounts outpaced the indexes again this week with much less market exposure.  We strive to keep our market risk down and it has paid off.  All accounts are at new highs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: June 4, 2008

Current position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5 % money market for Thursday.  Our Signal improved slightly and we increased our exposure to the markets accordingly. Risk factor still seems high but it appears that money is moving out of oil and commodities and into the NDX. The financials in the S&P are holding that index back and some of the financial money may be moving towards tech.  I expect that the NDX will make another attempt at going through Wednesdays high, but the after-market is lower as I write this. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: June 3, 2008

Current position: 25% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 75 % money market for Wednesday. Tuesday had some large swings and I was glad to have walked away with a gain.  For Wednesday a slightly positive signal with slightly negative probabilities. We moved with the signal, supported by drops in oil and other commodities, a stronger dollar, and positive comments from the Fed (moving the focus to stabilizing our currency) add to that Wednesday is our favorite day to go long. But the pull back may not be over and therefore the reduced exposure.   As to the Fed remarks I pay more attention to remarks that are forward looking than those that look back. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: June 2, 2008

Current position: 75% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Tuesday.  I would have liked for the NDX to have closed a bit lower but we still have a strong "Short" signal for Tuesday.  Oil climbed some, but not enough to really influence the general market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 31, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Oil prices have become one of the most dominant variables effecting this market. The overall commodity index has leveled off since February, with wheat going lower, corn holding and oil going higher. The US dollar seems to have found a bottom and is climbing slowly. The departure from oil by the broader group of commodities signals to me that the end of the run for oil is near.  The climb in oil prices, though steep, does not appear to be in a blow-off phase.  Unfortunately these two observations tend to contradict each other to a certain extent. Falling oil could easily give new life to the markets and that is something we need to watch because as money flows out of oil it will need to find a home and T-Bills, still under 2%, do not look like the place to be.  I believe some of this oil-to-stock money has propelled the markets this past week.  Our accounts had a 1% gain for the month. We spent the past three days in the money market and will remain there on Monday.  This type of investing requires a lot of effort and discipline, but has brought us the rewards of much greater than market gains with less than market risk exposure. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

  

Comments: May 29, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  The Commerce Department said "the U.S. economy grew at a sluggish pace in the first quarter, held back by the biggest slump in housing in 26 years and the first decline in final domestic sales in 17 years".  

Oil prices fell even as crude supplies declined, in a direction opposite of what one would expect. Over the last couple of years a fall in oil prices greater than about 1% usually leads to an increase in stock market prices the following day, as investors act on  the positive news. This time we already had three days of stock market gains, so any additional up-move will most likely be blunted. Our T-Index is sitting at +37.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 28, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  Dow Chemical announced a price raise of up to 20% across the board.  Their chairman said:  “For years, Washington has failed to address the issue of rising energy costs and, as a result, the country now faces a true energy crisis, one that is causing serious harm to America’s manufacturing sector and all consumers of energy”.  The markets for some reason did not seem very concerned and the indexes closed with small gains.  Our signal finally turned positive, but with so little conviction that we remain in the money market. Strong signals make us money.  No sense trading the weak ones.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 27, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  Good day for the market, bad day for us. Could be the market is setting up to base in this area after experiencing a few percentage point correction over the past week and a half.  Both short and long term interest rates climbed to new highs as the dollar climbed and oil retreated.  Wednesday has a good record of going higher and I believe today's climb could continue into Wednesday, but our signal is flat.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 23, 2008

Current position: 60% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 40% money market for Tuesday.  A very nice steady week for us. Four small gains and one day in the money market brought our year-to-date gains to 26.1% (fees not included). The market itself did not fare very well and both the NDX and SPX are off over 6% for  2008.  At this time we do have openings for managed accounts in all states so give us a call.  All our accounts trade at the same time in the same fund and at the same price along with our own money.  We believe in what we do, that is why we are investors along  with you. For Tuesday our signal, though still strong, became less negative and we reduced our exposure to 60%. Have an enjoyable long weekend and check back in with us on Tuesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 22, 2008

Current position: 80% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 20% money market for Friday.  We have a strong Short signal but with some components (that I would prefer to see on board) going in the opposite direction. So I held back 20%. A long week end is coming up and there should be some lightening up of positions by traders, Thursdays small up tick should relieve the oversold pressure from the past few days and allow more negativity to creep in.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 21, 2008

Current position: 20% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80 % money market for Thursday.  This has turned into a good week for us as today's large drop in the markets pushed our ytd gain to over 25%. For Thursday we have a money market reading in signal strength, but it has fallen for a number of days and the probabilities now strongly favor a small bounce. I don't want to get too exposed at this point as we have finally started a down trend and I am fairly certain that it is not finished. Once again anyone interested in seeing our daily trades and % changes for the past 28+ months please email me and I will send you the spread sheet.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 20, 2008

Current position: 25% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Wednesday.  There has been some chatter on the web regarding trading our signals and I would like to clear things up. I post information on our trades so that potential investors can check our trading before hopefully signing up with us. I do not encourage trading our signals for two reasons. You will not be able to trade the Rydex funds at the close yourself as we do because I don't post the signal until after the close.  And trading the QQQ or futures involves commissions and slippage and an altogether different time slot.  Over the past 28+ months we have achieved a total gain of over 68% for our clients using Rydex funds. Although this is a sizeable gain, it amounts to less than a tenth of a percent per day which can easily be eaten up by commission, slippage and timing if you were to blindly follow the signals. I hope this clears things up and helps keep people out of trouble. If anyone would like a spread sheet of our actual daily trades and % changes going back to Jan 1, 2006 send me an email and I will attach it and send it back.  

As for today's forecast our signal became more negative, but not excessively so. Therefore we are only partially invested preferring to risk more when we have we have a stronger signal. It was interesting  to watch the "depressing" news this morning compared to yesterday morning when all was "buoyant", realizing that nothing had really changed over the past 24 hours except emotions.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 19, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  The market fell back from new recent highs reversing the moves of recent sessions.  Our signal moved into the gray area and we moved fully into the money market content to wait for a stronger signal.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 17, 2008

Current position: 75% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Monday.  Friday's market repeated Tuesdays performance by dropping 1% then fully recovering.  Only the Dow, of the major averages shows a loss over the past two weeks, having topped out on May 2nd. We remain short, but I have reduced our exposure. Over the past week oil continued to make new highs and another airline closed its doors (Air Midwest). These are items that normally spook the markets but the market continues to rally, now a full two months since the Bear Stearns bottom.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 15, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Friday.  Factory activity declined and joblessness reached a four year high, but progress toward a housing rescue helped move the markets higher.  Our signal became much more negative and we are fully short.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 14, 2008

Current position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Thursday.  Early market gains disappeared and moved our signal into limited positive territory for Thursday. Our signal and probabilities are not in full agreement.   With the NDX hitting new recent highs and the S&P close behind I wonder how much longer money will flow out of T-bills to fuel this rise.  Since March 20 when the 90 day bills hit 0.5% the S&P has risen about 6% and the NDX about 14%.  But short them rates have already tripled (now at 1.785%) so most of the fuel may be gone.  The recent gains have moved our earnings/interest rate model back into the normal area for the S&P, so the index is no longer undervalued by that measure, and S&P earnings continue to fall. We are experiencing some e-mail problems today so please try again on Thursday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 13, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  The market recovered from its early loss and held near even.   Not enough information to make a directional decision, so we reduce our exposure to zero and make a few cents in the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 12, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Tuesday.  The markets were surprisingly strong on Monday.  That should lead to a decline on Tuesday, but we may have some momentum players try to push the market higher early on. 

This weekend I did an overall evaluation of our trading over the past 28 months to see if our exceptional returns came at the expense of higher risk and found that the total market exposure for our investors was actually 17%  less than for those investors that were fully long or fully short the Nasdaq 100 index.  There are very few places where you could have gotten well above market returns with less than market risk.  

The spread between the 10 year notes and 90 day bills continue to narrow, pushing our T-Index higher. Our signal moved strongly to the down side and seems to be justified by the weak probabilities as seen on our "forecast" page.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 9, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Having a good overall handle on market direction is only part of making money and we gave up some gains this past week. The negative momentum has waned over the past few days but has not turned positive, causing us to move into the money market. Our T-Index has gained ground as short and long interest rates have moved back into a more normal relationship with each other. Earnings continue to fall and as they do they allow the market to move lower without being out of line with normal historical values, this fall will most likely continue so I expect a slow steady decline in market value over the next few months.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: May 8, 2008

Current position: 50% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Friday.  Our indicators are still negative, but less than previously, so we reduced our exposure but remain negative.  The economy in NYC seems to be booming.  High rents are offset by the volume of business. The city is very alive and full of people in their 20's and 30's as well as many NYU students. Restaurants are busy and people are everywhere. Parking is very difficult and no signs of a recession. As to Friday's stock market we should be headed lower with possibly more to follow on Monday.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: May 7, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Thursday.  We moved fully short.  The NDX made a new short term high Wednesday, then turned around and moved lower.  Looks like that  was the top, but I said that last week too.   The after market is a little higher. The T-Index climbed to +21 and has been climbing the past few days. Expect normal posting times as we are back in California.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: May 6, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  The market held up on Tuesday and climbed some, even though most of the news was bad.  After the market closed Disney announced some very good earnings, which may have been anticipated by some traders.   I am still looking for a market down turn very soon.  Our signal turned flat and we moved into the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: May 5, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Tuesday. Late posting, in NYC for a few days.....  Strong short signal. We have moved fully sort, only consideration is the normal tendency for Tuesday's markets to reverse Monday's direction.  I will post on time for Wednesday, but Thursday's posting will again be late.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: May 2, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Monday's signal turned from "money market"  to "long" at the close. Too late to make the trade.  Changes at the close are not very reliable so it is best to wait for a more stable signal.  The market went much higher early Friday morning before the open. Then spent the rest of the day slipping until the close.  I may not be able to post our positions every day this coming week since I am on vacation, but I will try.  We will be able to post again for sure by Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: May 1, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Very nice up day bringing all our accounts to new all time highs.  The ndx closed on the high of the day.  I think that was the top, if not I can't see it extending past Monday. Our signal turned flat.  Looking for money to be made on the down side next week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

    

Comments: April 30, 2008

Current position: 50% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Thursday.  Fed moved as expected and the market was confused, odd day. The markets closed with a minor pull back.  Our signal varied between a mild and strong "long" for Thursday so we held firm. Generally investors are more positive on the day following a Fed move. I expect to see Wednesday's highs tested on Thursday. T-Index closed at -20.  We need to have the desires of the major corporations align with those of the general population. Multinational corporations want a weak dollar since the bulk of their earnings come from overseas.  The weak dollar causes oil and food prices to rise which hurts the general population. So far the government has supported the desires of the corporations over that of the population.  That is close to changing. The Fed needs to keep interest rates low to allow the real estate markets to heal. And a strong economy will help bolster the dollar. But it will take time and earning will continue to fall as they have in S&P latest earnings update. So past this week I expect a lower market going forward for a number of months. I will be in NYC on Thursday and hopefully my laptop will be able to post without too much difficulty. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 29, 2008

Current position: 50% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Another cautious day with the NDX up and most other markets lower. We have a strong signal for Wednesday, but the Fed uncertainty takes away from it, so we are only 50% long. The street is expecting a 1/4% cut, and I do not think they will be too surprised if the rates stayed flat. Interest rates climbed over the past two weeks supporting that theory. Some recent strength in the dollar has trimmed the price of oil, gold, basic materials and some food crops. This might providing some incentive to a flat or small rate cut. I still expect that this week will produce a market top. Our T-Index moved towards even, now at -2. I will be in New York on Thursday and return next week, but I expect to trade and post my column daily.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 28, 2008

Current position: 75% Money market, 25% Short: Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Tuesday.  Not much movement in the markets ahead of the Fed meeting.  We have taken a small short position but no great expectations. My work is pointing to an intermediate market top this week, probably on Thursday.  Kind of hazy as to the exact day with the FED decision on Wednesday.  Looks like the markets could be under a cloud all the way through August. The close of the Democratic National convention will probably bring some relief. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 25, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  We had an excellent week going five-for-five with correct calls. All our accounts are at new all time highs, up 22% for 2008. Friday was a strange day with the NDX down and other indexes higher.  Wednesday we will have a Fed decision.  All of this has set up a mixed signal for Monday. I believe next week will go higher but Monday is too difficult a call and I am not willing to risk our capital without strong justification.  Our T-Index is at -42, unfortunately the current very low interest rates makes it hard to discern any real information from this number.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 24, 2008

Current position: 50% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Friday.  Early weakness gave way to strength following some positive company forecasts.  Our signal turned "short", but it lacked some important "core" components so we limited our exposure. I am looking for more positive market strength next week so a small pull back Friday would be helpful.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 23, 2008

Current position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Thursday.  The market climbed cautiously ahead of the Apple report. Our Signal lost strength, but remains "long" and we reduced our market exposure. The program continues to behave well and our accounts are once again at new highs for the year. Looks like the market will move with Apple on Thursday.  I am writing this prior to the earnings release.   Our T-Index closed at -52.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 22, 2008

Current position: 100% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x for Wednesday.  Our signal moved fully long. Tuesday's earnings news was bad, as is expected in a recession type economy and helped the markets go lower. Could be a little choppy the next few days as some positive carry over from Google collides with the realities of a dual real estate and economic down turn. After the first few days of May I believe the direction will be very clear and negative. T-Index closed at -37.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 21, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Tuesday.  Once again we have a strong negative signal and we have gone fully to the down side. B of A, hit with many bad loans, did not impress.  Our T-Index slipped to -33. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 18, 2008

Current position: 100% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x for Monday.  Thursday our accounts were at an all time high. The Google news cost us on Friday, but I would do it again under the same conditions.  We can only adjust for what we can determine. Surprise events will either help or harm. Our signal has realigned to the Long side. The Google news did not change the economics of the country or the stock market, it did not repair the housing market. It will not change the upcoming earnings forecasts, it only changed the outlook on Google.  Just like the GE news last week did not carry over into this Friday, it is most likely that the Google news will not carry very far. But I do expect it to carry over into Monday.  Our T-Index closed at -23.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 17, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Friday.  We have an exceptionally strong "short" signal.  Additionally, in a poor economy most of the news is bad, so Fridays coming ahead of the week end, usually does not do well.  Of course this Friday could be the exception, but our program is based on statistics, lose some, hopefully win more. Our program is good at determining the most promising direction in the absence of news to the contrary. We formulate our forecast and make our trades a few minutes prior to the close. Thursday after the bell  Google came out with unexpected great earnings and the company soared 17% in after market trading so it looks like we may be in for some heavy lumps.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 16, 2008

Current position: 75% money market, Short: 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x  for Thursday.  Intel's earnings sparked a strong rally that held on all day and gained strength.  When it ended it gave us a weak short signal. The dollar fell and our T-Index moved lower to -72.  I would like to elaborate on John McCain proposed suspension of the Federal gasoline tax for the summer.  In general I am for higher fuel taxes to prod reducing our dependence on oil, but I am also in favor of stimulating the economy during downturns. So a more elastic tax could do both. In the same vein it would be very good if the government could "store" funds during boom periods to spend on public works projects like rebuilding our infrastructure, during recessions. Thus providing a functioning "dual" economy (public/private) that could smooth out the dips. Getting government to agree on such a system would be very difficult if not impossible, but elastic taxes might be easier to accomplish. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 15, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday. The market lost most of its early gains and closed just slightly positive.  We moved back into the money market 100%.  By staying out of the market when we do not have a convincing reason to be there we are able to preserve capital for more promising situations. The dollar was higher, but so was the price of oil which closed over $113 per barrel. John McCain outlined some economic proposals which included temporary suspension of the federal gasoline tax during the summer.  Overall they appeared sensible and I was glad to see them. March wholesale prices had their second largest monthly increase in 33 years. On the plus side after the market closed Intel announced a sale gain of 9% and put the aftermarket in rally mode.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 14, 2008

Current position Long: 75% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Tuesday.  The market held up very well after the Wachovia surprise loss and dividend cut. When the economy is in a down turn we must expect to see more negative news than positive.  We do have a strong signal and the NDX showed some base building on the short term charts.  So for at least one day I expect we will go higher. Our T-Index has gone more negative ( -67) and is in a deflationary mode with very low interest rates, so this is not a problem. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 11, 2008

Current position: Short:  20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq100 2x, 80% money market for Monday.  I expect some carryover into Monday that should take us back to the market levels prior to the large pop on April 1st.  The probabilities may be overstating the negativity as our signal has become less negative, though still a short. Our T-Index has moved further into the deflationary negative area now at -40.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 10, 2008

Current position: Short:  20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq100 2x, 80% money market for Friday. I expect traders to sell into any early strength on Friday with the market eventually closing lower and maybe even more aggressive selling on Monday.  I will consider increasing our short position on early strength at the morning fix. We got the upswing in the dollar I talked about yesterday and it pushed the metals and oil lower. Our T-Index moved more negative on the deflationary side to -26.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 9, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  The market showed good resistance to going much lower considering the bad news. This left us with a money market signal and we exited our position at the close. Interest rates fell and our T-Index moved to a -9 on the deflationary side once again. We could be looking at another upswing in the dollar and drop in oil, gold and commodity prices over the next few days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 8, 2008

Current position: Short:  50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq100 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Our signal remained negative, but not quite as strong.    Our T-Index is flat, now at only +1. Wednesday marks the first day of our new down cycle that will be in effect for about two and a half weeks.  The first two cycles for 2008 worked out quite well. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 7, 2008

Current position: Short:  50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq100 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday.  Our signal reversed itself and is now short.  The early gains Monday mostly slipped away but the Nyse managed to achieve its sixth consecutive positive showing.  A pull-back Tuesday or Wednesday should be in order.  Our probabilities are very one sided and negative, even more negative than our signal strength would indicate. Our T-Index is flat and closed at a +2.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 6, 2008

Current position: Long 100% Rydex Nasdaq100 2x for Monday.  We have a strong signal and strong probabilities for Monday to close higher.  The administration is sending a proposal to congress to provide new powers to the Fed to oversee market stability. So I am looking for more up-side early in the week, but I believe the week could close lower and continue lower over the following months. Last week we saw three airlines fail  "three".  And there are more negatives brewing.  The carry-over from the over heated housing market is now being felt in the rental market. Average apartment rents in NYC are estimated at $2,750 per month. This is the stuff that stagflation is made of. So we have deflation in housing prices, and stagflation in rental prices in selected areas. Food and fuel prices linked to the falling dollar are working their way higher on a retail level. High rents eventually cause employees to move away and or push up wages. Cities that lose population (Detroit etc.) eventually collapse as local taxes can't support services. We appear to still be in the early stages of many problems. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 3, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Another money market day. The market held up with bad unemployment data but could not make much headway. Our signal is very conflicted with both positive and negative influences, leaving us with no choice but to remain on the sidelines.  T-Index closed exactly at zero.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 2, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  Sometimes we just need patience as our signal remains flat for a fourth day.  Wednesday an early rally lost steam but did not give up much ground.  Our proprietary cycle program is looking for an end to the current positive cycle (that started Feb 8th) in just 4 more days. This could unfold as another rally most likely starting Friday and lasting through Tuesday. Then I expect we could look forward to retesting, and most likely breaking the lows over the following months. But of course we will still take it one day at a time going in the direction that our program believes carries the least risk and the highest probability of gain. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: April 1, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  A number of positive news events jump-started the market Tuesday morning and it never took a breather. The very consistent intra-day climb leads me to think that it might continue for a while into Wednesday.  However the normal follow-up trading pattern after a strong up day combined with a sharp decrease in the Vix, that we saw on Tuesday, is for the next two days to be down,  followed by two up days. Our signal did not confirm a direction for Wednesday and we remain on the sidelines.  Once again we see a shift in mood. The dollar did well on Tuesday which helped the rally.  Our T-Index closed slightly positive. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: March 31, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Our signal continues flat and we remain in the money market.  I do not have a clear trend direction and will wait for more information.  Our T-Index closed at -6 only slightly negative. The dollar closed higher with most commodities ending lower which is positive.  We only increase our exposure to the markets when we are more certain about the markets direction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: March 28, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Our signal turned flat and we closed out the quarter one day early and 16.4% ahead.  All accounts are at new all time highs.  We secured these gains while limiting our market exposure as we spent a good amount of time in the money market.  The program is running very well. For the markets I am expecting another run higher over the next week or two and I expect it to fail. Perhaps early earning reports will be positive. I believe that one of the reasons for the downturn this past week was the movement of funds out of the stock market and into the commodities markets to cover margin calls due to the exchanges raising margin requirements. This should have a dampening effect on commodity prices, which is good for the economy.  Although we have a flat signal I lean towards Monday closing higher, perhaps after a slow start.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: March 27, 2008

Current position:  Short: 100%: 40% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 60% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x for Friday.  Our signal became even more negative for Friday and we moved fully short.  The Vix normally increases as the market falls, but Thursday it moved lower, another indication that there could be more negative follow through on Friday.  Fridays are also rather poor performers in downward trending markets but nothing in investing is certain, it just means that the probabilities are in our favor for a lower market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

 

Comments: March 26, 2008

Current position:  Short: 40%: Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 20% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x, 40% money market for Thursday.  We increased our short position in the S&P and added a small short position in the NDX 100 utilizing the Rydex 2x funds.  Our signal became weaker and moved to a solid "Short".  I think we are in a topping pattern on this small rally and that could extend for a number of days.  We usually prefer positions in the NDX over the S&P, but the S&P appears to be weaker at this time as we saw today. Our T-index continues to gain, now at -13 moving higher as money flows out of the 90 day t-bills. The loss in the dollar and gains in commodities could put an early end to the market rally that started on Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 25, 2008

Current position: 80% money market, Short 20%: Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund for Wednesday.   The market climbed higher for a third day.  The S&P is showing some signs of being tired and we took a small short position in the S&P.  I believe the greater part of the rally is complete and we should see some pause and adjustments. Market sentiment is still positive and should continue positive for a short while. The market ignored some negative news this week but more will come.  T-bill rates continued higher and our T-Index gained more ground to close at -17. We are going into the last few days of the quarter and some mutual funds will make cosmetic adjustments to their portfolios.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 24, 2008  

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Optimism rules for awhile. And although we are looking for more upside over the next week or two we will still adhere to our disciplined approach to the markets. Today we saw money flow out of t-bills and into the stock market. Thursday the 90 day rate was .5%. Monday it more than doubled to close at 1.01%.  This shot our T-Index up from -242 to close at -85. The dollar fell. Tuesday often moves opposite to Monday's direction but the market is showing strength so we will wait and see. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 20, 2008 

Current position: 100% money market for Monday. Markets are closed on Friday giving investors three days to think. We have a money market signal that is leaning higher. Thursday the markets had a slow start, then closed sharply higher but did not make up for the Wednesday loss. Our T-Index plunged even lower to close at -242, very negative indicating deflation, but not a problem as long as interest rates stay low. Any deflation in the soaring food and energy prices would be welcome.  The 90 day t-bill rates hit a low of 0.2% closing at 0.5%.  Money is scrambling for safety and investors are willing to accept minimal interest payments for that safety while they try to figure out their next move.  New long term views were posted this week, read them.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 19, 2008 

Current position,  75% money market, Short 25% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x for Thursday.   We have a money market signal leaning lower.  In addition a couple of rules of thumb say that the second day after a large gain the market goes lower.  The same holds for the second day after a fed adjustment.  Wednesday early market strength dissolved as the dollar gained strength. It looks like the Fed move has gotten the respect of the rest of the world.  Last Thursday our T-Index closed negative. On Friday its fall accelerated and I said it was giving a deflationary alert (see March 14 comments below). Now 5 trading days later we find the DBA (etf of soft commodities) has fallen 13% and the DBC (broad commodity tracking fund) has fallen 7%. Oil and Gold are also lower. 90 day T-Bills are now at 0.65%, the lowest I have seen during the 15 years of my records. It appears the psychology of the market place has changed.  New long term views were posted this week, read them.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 18, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  Investors liked the 3/4% cut in rates and voted the markets higher. Our signal turned flat, but the markets behaved very well during the day and that could lead to a higher Wednesday.  Technicians liked the bottoming action this week and could be inclined to jump on board. The 90 day T-Bills closed at .9%. Our T-Index is screaming deflation and closed at -114. With interest rates as low as they are, the deflation alert will not harm the market and I expect a general upwards market trend for the next two to three weeks. Beyond that economic fears will probably resurface.  New long term views were posted this week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 17, 2008

Current position: Long 50% Rydex OTC 2x, 50% Money market for Tuesday.  I am looking for a small up-day. Our signal is strong, but the Fed meeting could bring a surprise so we are keeping our exposure at 50%.   Like Enron the demise of Bear Stearns wiped out the savings of many employees.  J.P. Morgan will have to fend off law suites and try to integrate 7,000 angry employees into their organization. I believe they will have a hard time moving forward. With the exception of the no-bid award at $2 per share the Fed did the right thing in protecting the clients and keeping the dominos from falling throughout the industry. Bear Stearns took the hit but was also a big part of the cause of the sub prime mess. It is the Feds job to support the economy, not individual companies.  Friday I mentioned that our T-Index indicated a deflationary condition and that falling prices of goods could be in order.  Today we saw a crack in commodity prices with the DBC ( an ETF representing a broad range of commodities) down 4% as our T-Index plunged to -75. I have posted a new long term forecast to discuss these events and their implications for the economy and the stock market. Not all of it will be bad news so read it now!  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 14, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  One day after Standard and Poor's assured the investing public that the worse was over, Bear Stearns clients bailed out and left the 85 year old company without funds.  Although temporarily propped up,  an unraveling of the Bear Stearns investments could have major repercussions throughout the investment community.  One immediate effect was a fall in interest rates moving our T-Index to -47, signaling a failing economy and a deflation scare. This week S&P again downgraded earnings on the 500. Bear Stearns is part of the S&P 500 so expect more ongoing trouble.  Deflation is far from peoples minds for the near term as oil and food prices soar, but conditions could rapidly change leading to a downward price cycle with real-estate already leading the way.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

    

Comments: March 13, 2008

Current position:  100% money market for Friday.  Our signal turned flat and is leaning slightly negative. Our probabilities are mixed and our T-Index closed at -9.  Standard and Poor's said they thought that major banks had completed most of their write-offs and this seemed to give stocks a push. Write-offs are generally overdone and provide companies with a cushion to move forward.  The banking index BIX reached a new low a few days ago. Watch this index over the next two months as earning come out again. Banks should start to pop if the write-offs are really over.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 12, 2008

Current position: 75% Money market, 25% Long:  Rydex OTC 2x for Thursday.  We have a weak long signal for Thursday. The probabilities as seen on our forecast page look excellent, but there is one problem.  Over the past 15 years the second day following a large gain >4% on the NDX resulted in an average drop of 1/2%. Because of this information we significantly reduced our exposure. In addition the Fed action was not constructive to the dollar and the dollar fell another 1.45% on Wednesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

  

Comments: March 11, 2008

Current position:  100% money market for Wednesday.  A very nice up day increasing the gain in our accounts for 2008 to over +8%.  Our signal turned flat for Wednesday and slightly negative. There is a chance that we will see some carry over into Wednesday, especially if the Fed move brings support for the dollar. This would bring relief from the high oil and commodity prices, but Tuesday's action did not really support that theory.  Over the past 15 years there is no real  pattern as to what happens the day after a 4% or greater move in the NDX. since the total of the changes add up to less than 1/2%. The changes ranged from under -6.5% to over 6.5%, much risk for little gain. Our T-index improved a bit to +11.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

 

Comments: March 10, 2008

Current position: Long 100% Rydex OTC 2x, for Tuesday.  Our signal improved and we moved fully long.  The T-Index slipped to neutral.  The market continues to have little going for it long term, but it seems to be priced right based on current earnings and interest rates.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 7, 2008

Current position: Long 50% Rydex OTC 2x, 50% money market for Monday.  Our accounts had a good week, but the markets did poorly.  Monday's buy signal is not very strong and with the market closing below even, we limited our exposure to 50%.  Our T-Index closed higher at +8.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 6, 2008

Current position:  100% money market for Friday.  For Friday we have a rare combination of a flat signal with strong positive historical probabilities for the NDX.  I expect that the market will turn higher, even though Fridays are generally weak in down trending  markets.  Our T-Index closed at -1, basically flat.  We want to see that indicator stay above zero. The recent rapid gains in commodities suggests that at some point there will be some catalyst to cause the dollar to rally, initiating a plunge in oil prices, grains and gold, but I don't see anything on the horizon. If any of my readers can point out some trigger, send me an email, I would like to hear your opinions.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 5, 2008

Current position:  100% money market for Thursday.  After two days of gains our signal returned to a flat position and we moved fully into the money market. Our T-Index slipped once again and closed at +11, now very much in danger of going negative. Clinton once again hinted at a combined Obama/Clinton ticket and most likely is hoping for an offer since she can not reasonably win based on the present delegate count.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 4, 2008

Current position: Long 100% Rydex OTC 2x for Wednesday.  It appears that we are seeing bottoming action on the charts.  A chart of the NDX lows shows a triple bottom. I think it will hold up for a while. There are some cracks in the commodity "up-move" and Tuesday it looked like some money came out of the commodity market and into stocks. Our signal got stronger and we remain 100% long.  Our T-Index however slipped to +32. Were this to go negative (under the conditions of the ongoing earnings decline we see from Standard and Poor's), I would then expect a significant increase in the rate of the market decline.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 3, 2008

Current position: Long 100% Rydex OTC 2x for Tuesday.  For the first time in quite a while we have a strong "long" signal and have entered back into the market 100%. The dollar hit another low on Monday pushing oil, gold, and grain  higher.             Tuesday's primaries should be interesting with most eyes on Texas and Ohio. The Financial Times had a section on why they thought Clinton had fallen behind.  And applied a quotation from Groucho Marx "The secret to success in life is sincerity. If you can fake that, you've got it made." Either she is sincere and doesn't look it, or isn't and can't fake it.  As for Obama, he is either sincere or does a very good job faking it.    Our T-Index continues to fall but is still strong closing at +41.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: March 2, 2008

Current position,  100% money market for Monday.  There has been an increase in the money trading back and forth between the commodities markets and the stock market. This is similar to the more standard movements between the bond and stock markets. It adds another layer of complexity and opportunity for trading. With Friday being weak I expect to see some further weakness on Monday morning. The market is also near the old lows so we could see some more testing, which could get scary.  Standard and Poor's listed corporations continue to report lower earnings and our "earnings/interest rate/pricing" model shows the market indices dragging along their historical lower supporting boundaries.  Under these conditions the market is more likely to experience a continuous slow slide rather than a rapid drop as seen in 1987 and 2000 when the market was over valued by these measures.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: February 28, 2008

Current position,  100% money market for Friday.  The market has flattened and we have been in the money market for five days. The dollar was beaten down this week pushing up the cost for food and oil.  The Index futures markets were lower at the close indicating that more selling could be in store at the open. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

        

Comments: February 27, 2008

Current position,  100% money market for Thursday.  Our signal remains flat but is leaning slightly lower.  Our T-Index, though still strong at +57 has fallen rapidly in the last two weeks. We continue to wait for a stronger signal.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: February 26, 2008

Current position,  100% money market for Wednesday.  Our signal remains neutral. The current focus is on commodity prices and inflation.  Wheat has doubled since last year and jumped 34% since the start of this year. Oil closed over $100/b.  This is external inflation caused by foreign demand.  Raising interest rates would not help very much.   If you look at the reported Standard and Poors 500 earnings you would see nearly weekly downward revisions. This is a failing economy and needs the rate cuts, which in a small way unfortunately feeds the inflation.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: February 25, 2008

Current position,  100% money market for Tuesday.  We closed out our partial short position at the morning fix. Our signal remains neutral and leaning positive. The T-Index is slipping and closed at +73 still very strong. We are waiting for a stronger signal to give us direction. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: February 24, 2008

Current position,  75% money market, Short 25% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x for Monday.  The one day reversal on Friday should carry over into Monday, triggering some shorts to cover. So it looks like our expected up cycle may start one day early. Our signal turned flat and leaning positive at the close so we most likely will get dinged on our partial short exposure.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: February 21, 2008

Current position, Short: 75% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x, 25% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x for Friday. Thursday's decline replaced Wednesday's gain and from my point of view made the market very vulnerable to further downside movement over the next two trading days. Our cycle program shows this short term decline coming to an end on Monday with a longer term positive cycle starting on Tuesday. Also the normal market pattern is for Monday to follow Friday's direction. With our signal "short" for Friday we could be looking for a test of the closing lows. The S&P is less than 2.5% away and the NDX is only 1.5% away. We are fully short in anticipation.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: February 20, 2008

Current position, Short: 37% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x, 63% money market for Wednesday.  The stronger than expected day on Wednesday should lead to some weakness on Thursday.  We still have a neutral signal that is leaning a bit negative.  Tuesday's election results leads to the question.  Can Obama extract the US from the costs of war in time to pay for the social programs and save the economy?  Or will it be one cost upon the other?  Investors will have to weigh these issues as the drama unfolds.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: February 19, 2008

Current position, Shor