Daily Market Commentary

Comments: July 1, 2009

Current position 25% long Rydex NDX 2x fund for Thursday (original program), 37% long Rydex NDX 2x fund "long and money market only" program. This holiday week has slowed the markets but there should still be some slight up draft going into the 4th. Overall the markets and asset classes are losing their momentum and a downturn, as we go further into the summer, would not be a surprise. Banks and homebuilders have peaked but on the flip side may soon be ready for a second run, though the economy does not appear to warrant any enthusiasm. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 30, 2009

Current position 25% long Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday for both the original and new program. It is end-of-month time and that usually is a positive, though our probabilities are mostly flat. This is our first actual trade with our new "long and money market only" program. The consumer confidence index was down, but ABC has their own CCI and that one was up. But both were gloomy. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 29, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Tuesday. Our signal remained flat but probabilities fell as the NDX added a quarter % as the other indexes did better. Oil gained which helped the markets. The current thinking on the relationship between oil prices and the market seems flawed. The thinking is higher oil prices generally means recovering economies and increased oil use, so in this regard it makes sense, but we have also seen that speculation and supply disruption has more to do with the price than demand.  Also higher prices do act as a tax on economies and with struggling economies it could have a major negative impact. We have our new group number and will be accepting new accounts for the long & money market program. Fees will be based upon the total amount in the combined accounts. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 28, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Monday. Our signal turned flat and we are going into holiday period which should bring with it some positive price movement, though maybe not for Monday which is leaning slightly negative. Our new tracking account is at Rydex and the new program will start trading on Monday or Tuesday. This is a "long" and "money market" only program, which uses the same engine that has allowed us to outperform all mutual funds since the end of 2005. The program will go long on all our "long" days and on some of our "money market" days but will not short, it will be in the money market on all of our short days. A full write up will be available in a few days and we will be taking new accounts in a week or two. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 25, 2009

Current position Short:  50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 50% money market for Friday.  Just as the market often rallies the day after Fed meetings it often falters the day following that rally. Our signal turned short and we are expecting some lower prices.  The market showed good strength all day Thursday with both the S&P and NDX closing above last Friday's close making up for Mondays large drop and doing it without any real positive news. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 24, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Thursday. I expect that we will see some early strength that will fade to negative on Thursday. Our signal is very flat, but there is generally some positive follow through the day after the Fed meets. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 23, 2009

Current position Long:  50% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 50% money market for Wednesday.  We remain long into Wednesday. Nothing special in the news.  Wednesdays are generally up-days and the drop on Monday should give an extra boost. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 22, 2009

Current position Long:  50% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 50% money market for Tuesday.  We sat in the money market as the S&P and NDX each lost over 3% on Monday. The Dow is now down -5.0% year-to-date, with the S&P trailing by  -1.1%. We remain positive by +.8%. Investing in the stock market requires discipline and having a way to trade from both sides can keep you from being trapped in a long term declining market. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 21, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Monday. Last week we saw some downside which should continue this week. I don't believe the downside will carry very far and the markets will most likely resume going higher into July. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 18, 2009

Current position Short:  65% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 35% money market for Friday.  Corporations bought back 73% less stock last quarter than in the 1st quarter of last year. Hard to use this indicator since they shouldn't have been buying so much stock back last year. But it does reflect on what kind of growth they are expecting. The aftermarket is soft and Fridays are generally poor performers. I expect to have our tracking account in place at Rydex next week for our new, more "traditional" second trading program. This program will go long more often, and not go short, but will instead move to the money market on strong down signals. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 17, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Thursday. Eddie Bauer filed for Bankruptcy and Fed Ex posted a large loss. The market will most likely remain under pressure until after the 4th of July. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 16, 2009

Current position Long:  65% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 35% money market for Wednesday. The market failed to hold on to gains in an early morning and late afternoon rally, closing just off its lows. Our signal strengthened and we remain long. The new "My Space" CEO cut 1/3 of the workforce. Adobe missed their own estimates. Our table shows strong up probabilities but the average amount down is large. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 15, 2009

Current position Long:  65% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 35% money market for Tuesday. Our program turned long for Tuesday. There wasn't any exceptional local news driving Monday's drop and I believe we should see a rebound on Tuesday. There is a lot of talk about rampant inflation, a trashed dollar and rising commodity prices. Let me put this into perspective. Currently we have internal deflation generated inside the US economy and external inflation generated outside the US economy and brought on by the falling dollar. The strength of the dollar is primarily based on the perceived strength of the US economy relative to that of the rest of the world. The US economy has been somewhat uncoupled from the stock market, as the stock market is more concerned with corporate earnings which are more that 50% from outside the US. So for the past few years the stock market and US dollar have a negative correlation.  Also over the past few years the US economy has not been the driving force behind commodity prices. The stock market and commodity markets are now positively correlated through their relationship to the dollar. And the stock market has become a hedge against a falling dollar. The US has made good progress in this recovery, but it will still take some time before we see real improvement in the economy itself. The higher commodity prices are hurting the economic recovery and the recent rise in interest rates is a further damper. It is unfortunate that because of the size of foreign earnings, there is no alignment of interest between the multinational corporations and the US local economy.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 12, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Monday. The market has been dead for over a week so I expect a strong move in either direction very soon. 6 Flags had filed for bankruptcy joining a long list of well known companies going under. I am putting the finishing touches on a more "traditional" second program that will switch between long and the money market and will not go short. Giving our clients a choice and the ability to adjust their portfolios to the market climate. I will be working the details out with Rydex this week and we should be running in a few weeks. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 11, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Friday. Another day like the last five, almost no change.  Retail sales gained a bit, offset by rising gas prices. Foreclosures remained high and homebuilder stocks took some lumps. We are waiting for a solid signal, we take investing seriously and only invest when we have a strong probabilities in our favor. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 10, 2009

Current position Short: We are 30% in the Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 70% money market for Thursday. Real estate prices in Lower Manhattan in New York have fallen 60% since the peak. AIG will vacate some large properties there and it is estimated they may get 25 cents on the dollar (off the peak). Prices in some of the poorer areas in California are now below what they sold for 20 years ago. In real estate these areas are usually the last to see a sharp rise and the first to fall. The US is being squeezed by internal deflation easily seen in our T-Index and external inflation as shown in commodity price changes. Most likely the external inflation will further dim our recovery hopes and send all prices lower, commodity prices included. The long term view is very cloudy so we re-evaluate the markets daily and take the most appropriate position.   Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 9, 2009....sorry late posting.

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday. In the last five minutes of trading our signal moved from money market to "Short", too late to make a trade, and leaving doubt about the validity of a last minute signal. I prefer to have our signals much more stable going into the close. From some measures non-traditional measures we are over-bought so a correction would be expected.   Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 8, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Tuesday. We have our fifth money market signal in a row. The markets have been flat over that time frame with the S&P down slightly and the NDX up slightly. There is a slight upwards bias for Tuesday but not enough to take a position.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 7, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Monday. The S&P has now retraced 30% of its drop in points, from its October 2007 high to its March 2009 low. There are many conflicting interpretations of what is going on with the economy. This past week interest rates jumped indicating that money has moved out of the longer term bonds, most likely into equities and commodities. The problem being that higher interest rates will further slow the housing recovery. Retail sales looked bad as one would imagine, with more and more become unemployed. I still can't get excited over this "recovery" as I can't see where the cash will come from to support a continued rising market. I can see many boomers ready to retire and down size.  Drawing on their 401k's and moving to smaller homes or apartments over the next ten years. We now move into the softer, middle of the month time when the markets generally do not do well.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 4, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Friday. The market continued its climb after its short pause.  A look to the probabilities shows strong upside potential in the way of amplitudes, indicating potential for a good size move Friday if the market does go higher, while the upside probabilities themselves are not particularly strong.  We are still at the beginning of the month which is a positive, while Friday historically does not do well. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 3, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Thursday. After a 4 day run the markets took a breather. Markets never go straight up and they go up more near the end and beginning of the month than they do in the middle. So the normal pattern would be for upward momentum through Friday. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 2, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday. Tuesday the markets took a rest and were little changed. Our signal is leaning positive but not enough to trigger a long.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 1, 2009

Current position Short: We are 30% in the Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 70% in the money market for Tuesday.  Over the past two months the program has continued to correctly forecast with 15 of the past 25 calls correct, unfortunately for us the losing transactions over shadowed the winning trades, annoying, but not devastating for long term investors and it has not damaged our record as we continue to outperform all mutual funds from Jan 1 2006. Since we trade both sides of the markets we are not correlated with the markets and are our own asset class for time frames greater than a few days.  Our signal is once again strongly negative for Tuesday.  We are moving more cautiously and are only 30% exposed.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: May 29, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Monday.  The market flat-lined all day until a few minutes to the close then decided to rally. Our signal turned flat and stated that way into the close. The severe drop going into early 2009 is causing the market to overly compensate to the upside. But the market will move back to more normal behavior soon. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: May 28, 2009

Current position Short: We are 25% in the Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund and 30% in the Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 45% in the money market for Friday. After a flip flop opening the markets held higher ground on Thursday.  Investors want this market to go higher and it is close to the highs seen in early May. Our program which takes a statistical look at the markets is ready for it to back off. Because we are not in any one position for any long length of time, long short or money market, we are generally uncorrelated with the markets and and our performance is separate from any trends.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 27, 2009

Current position Short: We are 25% in the Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund and 30% in the Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 45% in the money market for Thursday. Wednesday's early rally reversed itself, but our forecast remained  consistently short for Thursday. Exxon said oil demand was flat and most other news lacked enough spark to keep the market up after Tuesday's big gain. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 26, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday.  Most probable direction for Wednesday is up, from our probability calculations.  Our signal is not convinced and is voting for the money market, but the strong turn around from an over-sold condition could easily carry over into Wednesday. Tuesday's large move had more to do with the technical condition of the markets than the jump in the consumer confidence index, but the jump made for a good catalyst. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 22, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Tuesday. It takes discipline to out perform the markets over the long haul. We now have beaten the NDX in 10 of the last 12 months and 14 of the last 18. I expect a mid week recovery that should start on Wednesday, but our signal was not strong enough to go in either direction for Tuesday and we will still make the Wednesday call on Tuesday when we have full information. Unless you are in a roaring bull market the investor needs to be able to evaluate information better than the person he or she is trading against. And have a consistent way of doing that task. If you can't spend the thousands of hours it takes you need to find someone who can do that for you. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 21, 2009

Current position Short: We are 45% in the Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 55% in the money market for Friday.  The NDX recovered about 1% during the last hour of trading, but that might have just relieved the pressure enabling more downside to come on Friday. Our signal became more negative on the activity. So far into the afternoon the aftermarket is slightly higher.  Our T-index continues to scrape along the bottom now at -378. Deflation deflation. If corporate earnings do improve it will be done by making more cuts, putting more people out of work and adding to the woes of the states and the federal government; which will only be able to respond by borrowing or raising taxes. Not much to grow a recovery on. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 20, 2009

Current position Short: We are 50% in the Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 50% in the money market for Thursday.  Markets came close to their May highs but slipped into negative territory by the close.  Morningstar noted that 36% of the hedge funds that they track have closed up over the past year and that on average hedge funds lost over 20% last year. With the lack of transparency and money lock up periods in hedge funds most of their clients did not even know there was a problem and those that did were unable to do anything.  The federal government's pension guarantee insurer PBGC has tripled its deficit over the past 6 months. Discussions on solvency concerns are being held. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 19, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday.  The market is backing off some in the aftermarket as of this writing. Tuesday's housing data was terrible, but the market held up anyway.  Looks like the market is trying to get above the early May highs.  Our T-index is still very negative at -375 indicating strong deflation. With interest rates as low as they are, housing still headed down-hill and no gains in employment deflation is the problem. A large part of corporate earning growth is do to inflation so guess what, with deflation expect very small if any earnings growth. And with little to no growth, PE ratios drop.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 18, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Tuesday.  We have added an over-bought, over-sold indicator to aid in reducing risk. When we get a market surprise we work to avoid it in the future, making the program even better.  For Tuesday we have a very flat signal and moved into the money market.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 15, 2009        

Current position Short: We are 45% in the Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund and 55% in the Money Market for Monday.  Good week for us as we made gains from both sides of the market. Shifting our position between long and short allows us to stay partially hedged (over time) and that helps keep us out of any prolonged market  down swings.  After the close GM announced that they were closing 1100 dealerships.  This comes a day after Chrysler's 789.  The double closings should also dump tens of thousands of cars on the market as the dealers scramble to get rid of the unwanted inventory. Looking ahead I see Monday lower, then a recovery into mid-week. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 14, 2009

Current position Short: We are 25% in the Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund and  75% in the Money Market for Friday.  We got our up-day, but the negatives have been somewhat modified. So although I am still expecting a lower Friday I do not see any major down side. Chrysler wants to cancel 789 dealer agreements which, if it happens will put a few thousand more out of work and leave many empty lots, causing more downside for commercial real-estate.  Ford should be the winner in the car wars.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 13, 2009

Current position Long:  15% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 85% money market for Thursday.  I expect this down turn to continue into Monday with a small up-blip on Thursday. Signal for Thursday is positive but weak. Most likely we will see lower prices throughout the month of May.  It is not so much that we have bad news, it is just that over the past two months bad news has been given a good news spin, and now this week, bad news is bad news again.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 12, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday.  Today's move took our accounts positive for May.  Our signal turned flat for Wednesday, but I expect more downside later in the week. A review of our past 40 months of trading shows that "on average", when the NDX had an up month we have gone up +3.75% and when the market went down we were up +0.95%. The recent run up in the markets has lulled many into believing that the market has only one direction. We know better. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 11, 2009

Current position Short: We are 50% in the Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund and  50% in the Money Market for Tuesday. Today's probabilities are updated with some changes we made in the calculations and should better reflect the estimates for amplitude of change.  I expect to see some negative carryover into the NDX as we have a strong negative signal. I expect this week's trend to be lower.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 10, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Monday.  A very good friend and excellent trader explained it this way. With 10 year note interest rates near all time lows, bond prices are near their highs. If China was about to sell off their US paper they would be happy, but since they were complaining about Obama buying the notes to keep rates down (to keep mortgage rates low) China must be planning to buy more. Currently bond rates are going up and that usually means money should start to flow out of stocks and back into bonds making it harder for the rally to continue. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 7, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Friday.  The aftermarket is a little higher and we would expect a relief rally after the stress test, but there were enough stress test leaks that the stress was gone by the time the news was released. Our signal is still running rather flat so we are waiting for a stronger message.  I will keep you posted as the testing progresses. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 6, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Thursday.  Very mixed for Thursday. Goldman Sachs's great political connections have provided them with record trading revenues as their major competition Merrill, Bear and Lehman are either crippled or gone. There are those that make the rules and those that follow the rules. You want to go with the rule makers. Here at the research lab we have developed a very nice "second" day forecasting tool which gives one days notice with very nice results. We know there are many of you guiding your own 401k's. I will keep you posted as the testing progresses. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 5, 2009

Current position Long:  20% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 80% money market for Wednesday.  Our signal spent most of the day as flat then gained strength in the last half hour, but never got very strong. We moved 20% long. Bernanke indicated that the stress tests would not upset the markets but warned that the financial system could not take any more disasters without hurting the recovery. (Were there to be a recovery around year end.) Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 4, 2009

Current position Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 50% Money market for Tuesday.  Even though the NDX generally turns down after four up-days and Tuesday often reverse Monday's direction, Tuesday's direction is no sure thing. The market seems to be headed into a blow-off to the upside, perhaps on Friday, after the stress test proves to be no great shakes.  Since we are long term investors we stay with the statistics and utilize a balanced double sided (long/short) methodology to insure that we maintain more consistent returns. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 3, 2009

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 80% Money market for Monday.  The market ran up during the last 15 minutes of trading and moved our short signal back to neutral. We were able to reduce our exposure to 20%. but the actual signal came too late to do a total exit.  This market's strength continues, the stress tests will most likely not have much influence on market direction when they get released on Thursday.  My engineering supply business is not close to normal. And I don't believe most other businesses are near normal either. My mechanic is doing well as his clients are holding their cars longer. An interesting phenomenon is taking place in a number of marijuana friendly states, California being one of them. With the Federal government no longer actively prosecuting "medical marijuana" laws. A large number of marijuana dispersing "clinics" have been set up. There are cannabis vending machines. There is even a "throw-away" magazine for the clinics to advertise in. I watched as the computer boom take place in the 80's and the computer magazines increased to phone book size. Well this "medical-marijuana" magazine was already a half inch thick. It was quite amazing to see ad after ad for these clinics. The growth of this "no longer under-ground" economy has further implications for crime as drug dealers will be hurt by these above board sales. Will drug dealers turn to other forms of crime under these economic conditions? Interesting stuff. Even in the worst economic climate some people will prosper.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 30, 2009

Current position Short: 40% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 60% Money Market for Friday. Chrysler filed for bankruptcy today. Investors are thinking that the worse is over and continue to jump in. A strong early rally did not hold and most indexes ended flat. The NDX did close up .8%. Our T-index, responding to interest rate changes gained, but is still almost -400 a very strong indication of deflation. As of this writing the aftermarket is flat. New long term forecast was posted Tuesday.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 29, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Thursday.  The Fed says the pace of the economy contracting is slower. Investors also found good news in the 6.1% decline in GDP. Anything is considered good news if the market goes higher. Our signal is flat again and we remain in the money market. Market generally goes higher the day after the Fed meeting, except when it runs up prior to that meeting so we will wait and see what Thursday brings. New long term forecast posted yesterday.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 28, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday.  The probabilities seem to be looking for the S&P to show some gains on Wednesday, with the NDX even. Our signal isn't looking for anything and has flat-lined. I was looking for a digital watch recently and the chain drug store had very limited stock as did the other four chains with different names. I don't know if the supplier has gone out of business or if pirates are all wearing multiple watches. If anyone has a clue let me know. A new long term forecast was finally posted today go take a look! Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 27, 2009

Current position Short: 21% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 79% Money Market for Tuesday.  Clearly the market sentiment has shifted from fear to euphoria. This is not 2003, there will not be a soaring real estate market to fuel stock purchases, there will not be big foreign sales to fuel earnings. It is not a market where you can buy stocks and put them away. Though we may see additional weeks of a climb, the economy is not growing and the market continues to be dangerous. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 26, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Monday.  With four consecutive gains in the NDX the most likely direction for Monday's trading is down. We like to see even stronger reasons before taking a position so we are in the money market, but I expect to see the market drop. I did not get to the long term view but will make every attempt to squeeze it in later this week. Our results are excellent. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 23, 2009

Current position Short: 40% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 60% Money Market for Friday. After hours Amazon released strong results. These results are coming at the expense of the local retailers.  Expect more of this as the misinformed States raise sales taxes and consumers readjust their buying habits. Our signal should be strong enough to battle the Amazon news, but the early aftermarket is a little higher. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 22, 2009

Current position Long:  12.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 87.5% money market for Thursday.  Apple and Ebay reported good results after the close and will probably give the techs another day of upside. Our signal spent the day looking towards the money market but changed to "long" near the close.  A part of the signals reliability is how stable it is. Since this one changed course we reduced our exposure. A new long term forecast will post by the weekend. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 21, 2009

Current position Long:  25% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 75% money market for Wednesday.  Our signal continues to stay long.  We could have another day of a small climb. SanDisk reported better than expected flash memory sales along with a quarterly loss and their shares have jumped in the after market. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 20, 2009

Current position Long:  25% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 75% money market for Tuesday.  We reduced our exposure at the Monday morning fix and held the remaining position over for Tuesday.  Our signal weakened some but remained positive. The market is still very volatile as could be seen by Monday's 4.28% drop in the S&P. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 17, 2009

Current position Long:  43% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 57% money market for Monday.  We have an average "Long" signal for Monday. The reduced market volatility has allowed us to increase our exposure a small amount. We are still less than 1x to the markets. But expect to be using small amounts of leverage as called for. The aftermarket is slightly lower. Our longer term cyclical and fundamental influences are still negative. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 16, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Friday.  Thursday's very strong up-move seems to be winding back down in the aftermarket, even though Google's earnings surprised on the up-side. It appears that the big money has not been very much involved with the recent run-up in stocks. Fundamentals are still very negative as the news of the past few days shows. Our signal for Friday is leaning to the short side, but not enough to trigger our signal.  For those of you not familiar with us, we now have gains in 14 of the past 17 months with the sum of those 3 losing months less than 2%, and our compound growth rate is about 33% for over 3 years.    Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 15, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Thursday. The markets moved in both directions Wednesday and our signal spent time both "long" and in the money market. We exited our two day short position at the close with a small gain. I have gotten back from the East coast and will be publishing on schedule. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 14, 2009

Current position Short: 39% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 61% Money Market for Wednesday. Today's signal gained some, but remained negative. Intel's earnings report did not disappoint our investors as that stock as well as the futures market headed lower in the aftermarket. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   



Comments: April 13, 2009

Current position Short: 39% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 61% Money Market for Tuesday. Our signal became much more negative for Tuesday and we moved short. The after-market has turned negative and is helping our cause by going lower about one percent at this writing. I am still in NYC so reporting will continue to be spotty.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   



Comments: April 12, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Monday.  We had a strong week and extended our gain into April. I am in NY with some limitations on my posting ability, so our home page is only partially updated. For Monday our signal is in the money market, but leaning lower. Looks like my computer ate the commentary for Thursday. I will fix it when I return. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: April 8, 2009

Current position Long:  35% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 65% money market for Thursday.  The market behaved well after some early weakness and the up-move is expected to carry over into Thursday.  I will be going to the East coast on business on Thursday so reporting may be a little spotty and the end of week charts will not be updated until next Thursday when I come back. I will continue to make trades in the accounts and hope to have some comments up each day. My office will still be open and there will be people there to answer your questions or to help you open any accounts.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 7, 2009

Current position Long:  22% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 78% money market for Wednesday.  Could be that jitters over potentially bad earnings sent the market lower, but the clear sailing into a potential hurricane could not last forever. Our signal turned mildly long and we took a small long position. Earnings season should put the lid on any sustained rise and our thinking is that overall we will take another spin down. It is time for another long term forecast which we will get to the end of next week. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 6, 2009

Current position Short:  30% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 70% money market for Tuesday. The market is showing remarkable strength with a good recovery from an early drop. Our signal is only moderately weak and the market strength may overrule it. But by utilizing our signals in up markets and down we have maintained excellent results over the years. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 5, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Monday. Our signal is flat for Monday. Our T-Index is still very negative and has not changed much during the recent rally. Deflation is still an ongoing concern. North Korea has added some tension with their missile launch this weekend but that is a back burner issue with the tattered economy.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 2, 2009

Current position Short:  41% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 59% money market for Friday.  Our signal became more negative and jiggled between a little more, and a lot more, negative near the close, settling on a little more negative.  We increased our exposure a small amount. Volatility remained relatively flat.  Our T-Index has been stable and now at -353.  Early aftermarket favors the bulls.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: April 1, 2009

Current position Short:  37% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 63% money market for Thursday. The market recovered from early losses and held up on bleak employment figures, but after two days of gains I doubt it has much more in it. Our signal turned moderately negative and we took a corresponding position.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 31, 2009

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday.  Tuesday's rally waned late in the day, and our money market signal shifted in the last few minutes to a mild "long". Signals that change late in the session near the close are suspect so it is no problem when they come too late to make the trade.  We remained in the money market. The aftermarket slipped early in the session as I write this. I continue to look for some positive movement possibly carrying into Monday then lower through next week.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 30, 2009  

Current position 100% money market for Tuesday.  Good day for our accounts. Although the probabilities look very strong our core elements (in our program) are not aligned with each other for Tuesday and recent trading has indicated that it is more prudent at this time to trade when they are all forecasting in the same direction. The administration's removal of Wagoner sent a sharp message to Wall street and the CEO's of America, that the old ways of doing business are over. The investor should be glad that someone is finally looking after their interest. But it appears that they still believe that the CEO's were doing the best for the companies they ran.  After this shake out we will see what CEO's were really taking care of business. Meanwhile for our clients we have put together our sixth straight month of gains. Actually over the past 16 months we have not had a month worse than -1.17%.  And remember, we don't hold your money.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 27, 2009 

Current position Short 55%: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 45% money market for Monday.  Our signal moved further into negative territory and we increased our exposure. It appears that the March rally may be over. I expect weakness early in the week followed by another rally try that will most likely fail. Second week in April could get nasty. But, as always, we will re-evaluate the markets one day at a time. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 26, 2009 

Current position Short 25%: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 75% money market for Friday.  Thursday the NDX closed on the high and climbed well over 3%. That combination on its own should be enough for a dip on Friday. Our signal is a mild short and we adjusted our exposure to match.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 25, 2009 

Current position 100% money market for Thursday.  When you have a statistical based program you need to be prepared for statistical types of results. Our program has been correct approximately 3 days out of 5 over the long term. Most often the good and bad days are closely mixed so we just make small steps higher.  Once in a while, like a few times last year, we string together about three weeks without a loss. That is an anomaly and we know the program will work its way back to normal. The same when we see a string of losses. We had a bad patch last June and another last September. Since the program keeps improving, the patches get further apart and our readers are surprised when they see it happen. It is very normal behavior and historically it has proven to be an excellent time to move into the program.  Wednesday we saw the market move 2% higher then -2% to flat and another -2% lower only to close near flat-line. For Thursday I expect to see some upside resulting from the normal emotional follow-through to Monday's large move, but as far as I can tell we are still in a dangerous bear market.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 24, 2009 

Current position Short: 50%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 50% money market for Wednesday.  We have a strong negative signal for Wednesday and have adjusted our position to reflect both the expected risk and volatility of the market. During periods of economic decline most of the news is bad.  Since a good portion of the news this past week has been positive I expect the negative side of the news will be playing catch up and the markets will slip in response. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 23, 2009 

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday. Huge up-day for the markets. Most often this type of activity sends the market lower over the next two days. Our signal is flat however, and we moved fully into the money market. Money moves from the less informed to the more informed. Unfortunately our program does not give us advance access to the news so we have to rely on its depth of data analysis to get our edge.  Everyone knew that Geithner's plan was coming so this news is not a real "extra" for the economy, but it added some mental support for depressed investors.  When we have news that does not provide an "extra" real boost, the markets generally return to their normal path soon after and this may be what we have, our indicators did not all move to the negative side so the move could carry over a bit first. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 21, 2009

Current position Short: 90% money market, 10% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Monday.  I expect Monday might be soft with another challenge to the recent high coming later in the week. But since we only work one day at a time anything past one day does not hold much importance to us. Overall it looks like the top came last week. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 19, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Friday. The S&P slipped as the banks backed off from their bull run.  The NDX only slipped a little.  Our signal held in neutral for a second day. Without a clear direction we hold in place to avoid unnecessary risks. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 18, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  With Tuesday's NDX closing on the high of the day, and Wednesday's early morning activity slightly negative we exited half of our already small position in the morning. Our first obligation is to preserve capital, second is to achieve substantial gains. The Treasury's announcement about buying long term treasuries sent the market higher and the dollar lower. Any significant up move in the morning could mark the top of this rally. Our signal is leaning slightly negative and the last few buyers could come in late on the Treasury news. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 17, 2009

Current position Long:  18.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 81.5% money market for Wednesday.  The past four days has set us back two weeks off our account highs. The only thing that makes me feel good when this happens is to double my efforts to make the program even better.  So in a way it is a good thing. This is still a bear market and the rallies normally do not continue for very long under bear market conditions. We move forward with caution and reduced exposure. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 16, 2009

Current position Short:  20% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 80% money market for Tuesday.  We closed out half of our long position at the morning fix to reduce our exposure, then moved into a 20% short position at the close. I do not like to see the indexes move in opposite directions as the markets are easier to read when they move together. I suspect that we are entering a trading range and that the low point will hold for the next month or two. Bernanke's statement about the recession ending in 2009 seems overly optimistic. As for AIG's bonuses the employees would not have a job much less a bonus had the government not stepped in to keep her afloat. Seems like it is time to cut off a few of the dragon's heads. We will increase our exposure as the market signals become more certain.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 14, 2009

Current position Long:  30% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 70% money market for Monday. The past week was excellent for the bulls and disastrous for the bears, we continue to move at our own pace and remain well above the averages for the year. The official OK to reduce banking regulations to allow more lending should come early in the week and may mark the end of this bull run. Our program is slightly biased to the up side so we would prefer to see things continue higher, but do see the markets as being able to continue higher longer term.  Monday's signal is only mildly bullish so we are much less than fully committed.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 12, 2009

Current position Short:  43% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 57% money market for Friday.  Thursday's continuation of the rally had the earmarks of a real turn but so far our program does not think so. As disciplined traders we follow our own  path at our own pace. Over time it has worked out very well. An accounting board told Congress that it might recommend easing the financial reporting rules on hard-to-sell assets.  Or to put it more directly, recommend continuing on the reckless path that brought us to this point. But hey, the market rallied. Friday's negative signal strength continued without change but there was a shifting and now our core components are negative adding to the reliability of the signal. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 11, 2009

Current position Short:  45% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 55% money market for Thursday.  The markets recovered Wednesday afternoon to pull out another gain.  Although most of our core components remain mixed our signal is negative and the probabilities are very one sided.  The volatility has come down over the last seven days and we have increased our market exposure to compensate. The rally does not seem to have really strong support and I expect it will start to fall back.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 10, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday. It could have been Citibank's positive remarks that drove the market higher, but the market was ready to pop anyway. Tuesday's very accommodating market gave us a 5% gain.  A good portion of our gains this year (as well as last year) came from trades to the up-side. Our cautious approach has now earned us over 10% only 2-1/3 months into the year, with only 44% the amount of market exposure when compared to the NDX.  We apply a very disciplined approach investing in the markets that attempts to accept a more constant level of risk while balancing that risk with a more consistent strong return. This approach does not take full advantage of the market's moves during volatile times but has provided us with much greater than "normal" returns with much less than market risk during these turbulent periods. Our signal closed with strong conflicting components on both the bull and bear side, resulting in a draw, so we moved to the money market to enjoy our gains and rest. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 9, 2009

Current position Long:  39% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 61% money market for Tuesday.  Monday's erratic market action ended on the downside and the slide eroded our position a bit.  The signal has lost only a fraction and holds promise for a Tuesday rebound, so we remain firm.  Texas Instruments raised its revenue estimate after the bell and that might give the tech heavy NDX a hand.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 6, 2009

Current position Long:  40% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 60% money market for Monday.  Our Jefferson National accounts gained some on Friday and we closed the week with all accounts at new highs. The S&P made a new low, but closed up on Friday which should be a good sign for Monday. Our signal closed a strong "long" and the probabilities look good. The markets are stretched quite a bit on the down side so a bounce would be reasonable. Based upon the current volatility and signal strength we remain only partially exposed to the market. The Futures market is also optimistic and closed more than a percent above the cash. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 5, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.   Yes, once more all of our client accounts are at new all time highs. The first order of business is to avoid losing money. Moving out of the long position we held on Wednesday enabled us to keep those gains, the small short position we held on Thursday was a bonus as the market moved much lower than I expected. Today our signal turned flat about 15 minutes prior to the close so our Jefferson National accounts remain partially short. Over the long term we have found that both the direct Rydex accounts and Jefferson National (Rydex) accounts return about the same. I expect that we will see the NDX below November lows prior to any sustained upturn and that index is still about 3.5% away. Revisiting the T-Index we find that it is sinking, moving further into its deflationary mode, now at a -350. It had gone as low as -458 during the November market drop. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program. We recently posted a new long term forecast so please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 4, 2009

Current position Short:  12.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 87.5% money market. Once again all of our client accounts are at new all time highs.  One reason for this is our time-based-diversification, where we do not spend much time aligned in any one direction. This flexibility enables us to avoid major market down turns, while the slight positive bias of our program enables us to do very well during up turns. For Thursday we are looking at a flat to lower day and have taken a nibble on the down side. The S&P may be a bit better behaved based on the probabilities. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program. We recently posted a new long term forecast so please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 3, 2009

Current position Long:  40% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 60% money market for Wednesday.  The market paused its decline, but could not launch a sustained advance on Tuesday. Our signal is still strong, but this time the probabilities better reflect the signal strength. This makes me more comfortable and I have increased our exposure to 40%, moving us back in line with both the signal strength and current volatility. There is more trouble brewing long term with under funded state pension plans and untold other dilemmas not yet in the forefront of the news, but I expect some positive market behavior in the very short term.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program. We recently posted a new long term forecast so please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 2, 2009

Current position Long:  30% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 70% money market for Tuesday.  Monday's sharp drop moved our signal solidly into the positive side. The signal's strength was not fully reflected in the probabilities which remained rather flat.  This leaves me to think that Tuesday might be difficult, so we have only partially increased our exposure.  AIG looks like a sink hole that nobody will be able to fill and may eventually be abandoned. Over the next few days I expect we will claw back up to Friday's close, but may have trouble getting past that level.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program. We recently posted a new long term forecast so please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: February 27, 2009

Current position Long:  15% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 85% money market for Monday.  Friday just rippled above and below the flat line closing down less than 1% on the NDX. The Dow and S&P mostly stayed under water. The signal for Monday was not stable, ending on a slight positive note and we took a slightly positive position.  Friday's market did not appear to be a bottom, but our view into next week looks like it could go positive.  So perhaps we will get a small reprieve, then another attempt at a  short term bottom mid-to-late March. More favorite words for this weekend as all accounts are at another new all time $ high.  Following the business news is important to understand long term strategy, but you need to watch the numbers for up-to-date market direction. I received two emails today asking why our signal and the posted probabilities are sometimes different. This does not happen very often, but when it does the reason is that we calculate the probabilities in a more general way to match our signal, find similar market conditions and get a large enough sample size. This sometimes gives us a slightly different result, however the signal rules.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program. We recently posted a new long term forecast so please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: February 26, 2009

Current position Short:  15% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 85% money market for Friday.  Thursday's market provided us with an opportunity to write our favorite words.  All accounts are at another new all time high.  Our y-t-d gains are now well over +4%. Friday's signal remains "short", but only a little negative so we reduced our exposure.  We are using a scalpel in this market. With no trading costs (because of the no-load funds) we are able to utilize an abundance of available information to make informed decisions as to the next day's direction. We then adjust our exposure to compensate for signal strength and overall market volatility. This has provided us with mush better than average gains and the ability to sleep at night. Great for retirement funds. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program. We recently posted a new long term forecast so please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: February 25, 2009

Current position Short:  35% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 65% money market for Thursday.  We had a strong negative signal that moderated into the close but still remained somewhat negative. I think we are appropriately positioned. The one day rally tried to continue, but most indexes lost about 1% by the close. Although the Dow and S&P fell below their previous closing lows on Monday the NDX remains well above its low and I would expect that if the other indexes drop back so will the NDX. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program. We recently posted a new long term forecast so please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: February 24, 2009

Current position Long:  18% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 18% Rydex S&P 2x fund 64% money market for Wednesday.  Stocks took a big bounce off of Monday's lows and I expect that the rebound should continue into Wednesday.  We adjusted our long position to include the S&P which has taken more than its share to the down side and should have enough spring left to carry another day. Tuesday's jump was good news for our clients as every client is now once again at a new all time high. If you have been watching for a while. Please consider coming on board with us, we walk the walk as our money is in this program too. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program. We recently posted a new long term forecast so please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 23, 2009

Current position Long:  35% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 65% money market for Tuesday.  Some of the beaten banks staged a small recovery today as the Tech sector took its turn in the dumpster. Our signal looks good, but we still do not have the total agreement we would like to see when going against the trend. Bloomberg news had a good article on comparing the Japanese decline in the 90's to today's US decline. The problem today is that the US worker does not have the savings that got the Japanese through their hardships. I get a number of political emails regarding the possible nationalization of those banks in trouble. This isn't Venezuela folks, here the banks are asking the government to take them over.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program. We recently posted a new long term forecast so please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 20, 2009...new long term view posted yesterday.

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  The bifurcation of the indexes with the Dow and S&P continuing weak and the NDX showing some strength has provided us with only a few strong unified signals. This is a temporary situation and should move back to a more normal state soon. Our accounts remained positive but all indexes are now below water. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 19, 2009...new long term view posted today.

Current position Short:  10% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 90% money market for Friday. Our signal moved to a slight negative position, and we adjusted for it. It has been a difficult month and a half, but no less difficult than last year at the same time. We remain slightly positive for 2009. The Dow however is down about 15% and cut through the November closing low, but remained above the intraday low. I have posted a new long term view today, If you are looking for optimism better read something from one of the regular brokerage houses. Our program does better on the up side than on the down side, so I would like to be more positive, but I am just telling it like I see it. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 18, 2009

Current position Long:  21% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 79% money market for Thursday. The markets paused and most likely will head up on Thursday. We reversed our position. Although we are expecting the markets to go higher I feel the upside is limited and there is a good chance that the down side will resume in a day or two. There is a big benefit to not remaining in any one position for more than a few days at a time and that is called time-based-diversification. This eliminates most of the risk of being caught in a long term down turn. It has been particularly helpful during the recent experience of having most asset classes move together, which negated the positive aspects of most other types of diversification. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 17, 2009

Current position Short:  21% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 79% money market for Wednesday.  Tuesday's sharp market drop propelled all our accounts to new all time highs. We have a very conservative approach and remain only partially exposed to the markets. Our signal gained negative strength on Tuesday, even as some of our more reliable indicators switched to the long side. This might indicate that buyers are kind of standing on the sidelines but ready to jump back in. One possible scenario is a sharp morning drop and partial or complete recovery. This is still early in the week and the markets tend to be worse on Fridays and Mondays so there could be more problems near week's end. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 13, 2009

Current position Short:  10% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 90% money market for Tuesday.  Friday was a very flat market. The NDX switched many times about the zero line. Our signal for Monday toyed between flat and negative settling in the Short position. However unstable signals are less reliable and more so over a three day weekend.  We pulled back our exposure to only 10%. We now show a gain for 2009. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 12, 2009

Current position Short:  45% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 55% money market. We found ourselves on the wrong side of Thursday's market's roller coaster ride. Our signal did become more negative and we moved more capital to the down side. A rumor about government support of homeowners sent the market higher in the last half hour after an early sell off.  I don't expect the rumor to carry the markets very far and it may have just provided a pause for another sharp down day. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 11, 2009

Current position Short:  37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 62.5% money market.  Wednesday was a mixed day with indexes closing in both directions. Our signal for Thursday is negative, but became less negative at the close, leaving us more exposed than we would like under these conditions. We make every effort to adjust our exposure to the markets in line with both our program's confidence in the market's direction and the market's current volatility. Our aim is for consistent and steady gains with few dramatic surprises.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 10, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday. Was it "Sell on the news" or did Geithner not project the confidence investors were looking for, or was it already written in the market?  Whatever it was Tuesday's collapse provided our clients with a strong gain bringing all accounts to another new high for the year. The government is the strongest force in the economy and strong government action usually dictates the market direction whether it is from interest rate adjustments, new laws or tax code changes. But not even strong government action will make the market go up every day. That is just one more reason to pay attention to the daily market influences and reevaluate the market on a daily basis.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 9, 2009

Current position Short:  50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 50% money market. We now have a strong short signal. The market is still rather volatile so we remain cautious and un-leveraged. The stimulus package is having a positive effect on the markets, but the damage continues with layoffs, bankruptcies and foreclosures. Nissan cut 20,000 jobs, and this is one of the well run companies. I spend a good deal of time working on improving the program. This weekend the focus was on intermarket relationships. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 8, 2009

Current position Short:  10% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 90% money market. Our signal is only mildly weak and we responded in kind. The NDX is now showing a good gain for the year following the hope of Obama.  Our signal is not reading this hope and I expect it will get even more negative as the week wears on. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 5, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Friday. The market was not fun today as we saw an early gain in our accounts turn into a loss. No news to speak of, just one of those odd days that make us remember that we have to work hard for our returns. Our signal turned flat, one of our components that looks out a few days is looking for the downturn after Monday, but we still take it one day at a time and will place our trades based on our composite signal just before the closing bell. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 4, 2009

Current position Short:  25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 25% Rydex inverse S&P 2x fund, 50% money market for Thursday. Wednesday provided us with some entertainment as the markets soared then floated back to earth. Our signal is a strong negative and we split our shorts between the S&P and NDX as the markets have not moved as one over the past few days. The corporate structure with very high CEO compensation is somewhat flawed.  Ultra high pay takes away any incentive to work towards improving the company. Like with the war lords in Africa, the corporation becomes a party basket for easy pickings. The partnership structure works much better if you want your company to grow as the old line brokerage houses knew, prior to their going public.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 3, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday. The market had a reasonable advance on Tuesday despite our expectations. For Wednesday we find some cross influences at odds and canceling themselves out. Overall I still expect the market to make another attempt at testing the lows of November. It is also possible that the test could happen very suddenly over just a few days. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 2, 2009

Current position Short:  50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. 50% money market for Tuesday.  Our signal became more negative as the day wore on and we reversed our position,  increased our exposure, and switched to the NDX from the S&P. I have been doing a lot of thinking about the banking and brokerage bail out and am not in favor of it in its current form. It does not seem right to support those who brought this downfall upon the world. I believe a cleaning of the house is in order. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 30, 2009

Current position Long: 15% Rydex S&P500 2x, 85% Money Market for Monday.  It was a tight squeeze, but we managed to show a gain for January. We are now ahead of the indexes year-to-date and all our accounts are at new all time highs. The signal is a weak "long" and the posted probabilities look better than they really are for a Monday in a downward trending market. We are cautious and only partially exposed. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 29, 2009

Current position: Short: 55% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 45% money market for Friday.  Our signal became more negative and we increased our downward exposure. After the bell Amazon announced very good earnings. That announcement could put a ripple in our forecast, but we shall see. The aftermarket does not show investors jumping on board the broad market.  I see Amazon as taking business from the brick and mortar retailers and not as a gain for the overall economy. So some economic joy but not a full cheer. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 28, 2009

Current position: Short: 25% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 75% money market for Thursday. This stealth rally has slipped past our radar and I am not looking for a big continued surge. Although a market will rally before corporate earnings gains are reflected in the earnings reports, and before a pick up in employment, investors still need to have a sense that the carnage has at least slowed down. From my vantage point, I don't see it. Sure there are pockets in the economy that are still alive, Net-Flix for example shows gains most likely from people giving up going to the theatre or canceling their cable contracts. Tupperware is doing well since the recently unemployed go to Tupperware to supplement their unemployment checks. Apple's new application programs have been a hit and a thousand or two programmers found work building these apps that sell for about a dollar. But aside from a few pockets it is bleak. On the flip side Starbucks is closing 700 stores as people put a little more thought as to where they spend their money and the post office is talking about cutting a day of mail delivery.  Our signal moved slightly negative as the market climbed for the fourth day. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 27, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday. With over 70,000 job cuts Monday and over 10,000 on Tuesday the market is behaving remarkably well. These numbers are from the large companies, there are many more cuts from small companies that won't go noticed until the unemployment figures pop, and then we need to remember that many long time unemployed simply fall off the data screen as their unemployment payments run out.  Our signal remained flat which leaves us in the dark for Wednesday.  However a look at the short term charts indicates that a small head and shoulders pattern has formed on the NDX putting us at the top of the right shoulder and the potential for a ten or eleven percent drop from here. I don't put much faith in the charts, but every now and then I take a look. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 26, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Seemed like the only bit of good news was the Pfizer-Wyeth merger, but the euphoria did not last. Our signal is slightly negative but not enough to produce convincing probabilities. We moved fully to the sidelines. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 25, 2009

Current position Long: 21% Rydex S&P500 2x, 79% Money Market for Monday. The markets recovered from an early drop and closed higher Friday.  We finished the week with a small gain. We had such a spectacular December that our slow start for January is not unexpected.  Monday's signal toyed between "long" and "money market" near the market close, but ended on the long side. I split the difference and put up only 21% for the long side. The aftermarket is sharply lower indicating a lower opening. Should be some tough days ahead.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 22, 2009

Current position: Short: 42% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 58% money market for Friday.  Microsoft's pre-market bad earnings report swamped the good Apple news and sent the markets lower. This downward move should carry over into Friday. I don't expect very much in the way of good news to alter the market's (most probable) downward path over the coming months. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 21, 2009

Current position Long: 36% Rydex S&P500 2x, 64% Money Market for Thursday.  Our signal remained positive for Thursday but much less positive than for Wednesday indicating that the enthusiasm is waning. The sharp drop in the Vix also indicates that this bounce could be very short lived. We are looking to exit at the AM fix. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 20, 2009

Current position Long: 35% Rydex S&P500 2x, 65% Money Market for Wednesday.  Over the long weekend the Royal Bank of Scotland was headed for a government takeover and other earnings worries turned the early aftermarket rise into a major decline on Tuesday. The Obama joy went south as reality moved in. It looks like he is the right man at the right time, but this economic mess will take lots of time to repair and in the mean time expect mostly lower prices. Our signal, however, is showing some joy and is very strong. We moved to 35% long which incorporates our reduction for current volatility. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 18, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday. Although our signal is for the money market, early indications are that Tuesday will go higher. Good chance the Obama optimism could carry further. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 15, 2009

Current position: Short: 24% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 76% money market for Friday.  Thursday continued weak through most of the day but recovered with some indices barely changed and others posting a strong gain. Our signal turned negative, but the probabilities do not take into account the Obama fest which could buoy the markets, especially considering the strong decline they just suffered. So once again we are following our signal with caution as volatility expanded.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 14, 2009

Current position Long: 24% Rydex S&P500 2x, 76% Money Market for Thursday.  With additional bad news as in the Nortel Networks bankruptcy and the worse than expected December sales numbers the market gave us some overnight gains for a rout.  For Thursday our signal became stronger, but with payrolls due there almost certainly will be some plant closings and layoffs that should hit the news lines. On the plus side there could be some pre-inauguration positioning for the up side and the markets are now very much over sold. We took a partially defensive mode and reduced our long exposure, but held half our position.  Our program is statistical in nature and we do expect to have some down days. We make every effort to keep our risk down.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 13, 2009

Current position Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x, 50% Money Market for Wednesday.  A rather flat market on Tuesday as most indices were little changed. We have an encouraging long signal and have moved appropriately. Without details on the path of the Paulson bail-out funds it has the scent of a Madoff maneuver. But that should escape scrutiny for a little while longer. Earnings expectations are dismal and belief in how bad the economy is will be suspended for a day or two which should be enough for the market to take a breath.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 12, 2009

Current position: Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday. Often Tuesday will reverse Monday's direction. But we will risk that and go with a continuation to the down side as our signal has finally gotten off of center and moved to the negative. Futures markets are slightly higher this evening. Alcoa's loss was worse than expected. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 10, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  With the month a third over we find that we have only been in the market one day. The S&P is down about -1% and the NDX up about 1%. So you can see the action has not been clear. I expect that the January unemployment figures will be more frightening than December.  The downsizing of corporations could put rather permanent dents in future earnings. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 8, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Friday. It seems to me the market is in a topping mode. I am expecting some major layoffs around the 15th of the month from almost all sectors of the economy and that should provide the impetus for a downward slide. It is not often we get to spend so many days in the money market, but the excitement will begin soon enough. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 7, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  Obama will start his term with a 1.2 Trillion dollar deficit, add to that the 1 Trillion dollar stimulus package, then close your eyes and put your head back under the pillow.  The next ten years are not going to be easy.  Just a few years after we had the largest productivity gain in history the potential for the good life was stolen from the world. But here we are and that was history. Today we got a wake up call telling us that the recent bull market is most likely over. Did you blink and miss the bull?  It was worth 20% in most market indices. I look for the next 20% move to be lower and a retest of November's lows.  I am also waiting for a strong enough signal so that we can safely take a position. The signal for Thursday shifted back and forth between a very weak long and a very weak short so we stayed put. For now we are sheltered in the money market. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 6, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  The Fed notes were released today and indicated that they expected unemployment to continue rising into 2010, not the kind of information that would stimulate the market. The market did hold its own and managed a small gain. Our signal turned flat and we moved back into the money market.  I suspect that we are in a topping pattern and that usually provides a round top with some up days and some down days. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 5, 2009

Current position: Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday. This is our first short position in eight days. The market has made a strong showing from its November lows but may have already reached its upside potential. All auto makers posted terrible year-over-year comparable sales numbers for December, but both General Motors and Ford did better than Toyota but nothing to cheer about. 

If you would like a guide helping you through these difficult times give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 2, 2009

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Friday was a big market day. I did not see any encouraging news to edge it on and I do not think it will continue very much further. Our signal stayed in the flat zone and we held our money market position.  Mid month should bring news of more layoffs.  One of the keys to maintaining strong results is to keep a good balance between your long and short indicators. Having a good balance ensures that you do not miss out on a market move to either side. Being unbalanced will hurt you when the market changes direction. In 2008 we were able to make money on both our long positions as well as our short ones because we were able to maintain a good balance between them. If you would like a guide helping you through these difficult times. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 31, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  2008 was very good to us and Wednesday's gain pushed our return for the year over +76.5%. Rydex closed before I could get the final figures. Our signal weakened further and closed flat, allowing us to move into the money market and all our accounts to take a day off without market pressure. The Vix ended the year at 40 and had not been that low since the beginning of October, while 20 is a more normal number. A big thank you to all our clients and readers, wishing all a prosperous, happy and healthy New Year. If you would like a guide helping you through these difficult times. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 30, 2008

Current position Long: 17% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 83% Money Market for Wednesday.  Our signal weakened, but remained long, so we adjusted our exposure in accordance with our signal strength and volatility. Israel is still a factor, but unless another country gets in the mix that issue will have less market importance. The year will probably go out quietly. I expect that 2009 will not provide much comfort to investors but the volatility should wind down as the year moves along. So if you would like a guide helping you through these difficult times. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 29, 2008

Current position Long: 45% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 55% Money Market for Tuesday.  If the Israel and India conflicts can keep from getting too far out of hand we should have a good market day on Tuesday. Monday's drop provided our clients with another new all time high in their accounts. Small but in the right direction. Our signal is very positive and strong but the international conflicts could send the markets off path. We adjust our exposure for both signal strength and volatility. We shift our position each day in the direction that we determine to have the highest probability of being correct. When the decision is not clear cut we remain in the money market and when the overall volatility is high we reduce our exposure to adjust for it. This method has provided us with gains this year from both our long investments as well as our short investments and has allowed our clients to sleep at night.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 26, 2008

Current position: Short: 15% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 85% money market for Monday.  We closed the week with enough of a gain to give our clients another new high. For Monday our signal is negative, but as you can see from the probabilities the data is limited, causing us to reduce our exposure. The small market moves over the past few days tends to mask investor emotion and is generally a positive for the markets. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 25, 2008

Current position Long: 30% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x,70% Money Market for Friday.  Our long signal weakened and we reduced our exposure. Almost all the news over Christmas was bad so that isn't going to help our forecast. Japan's market did turn up and that was about all the positives I could find. Hope every one had a happy holiday, Friday will be a full trading day.  Please pick up your free password we posted our long term views this past weekend.

Comments: December 23, 2008

Current position Long: 45% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 55% Money Market for Wednesday.  The Madoff scam has turned deadly as the founder of a fund that lost 1.1 billion to them has committed suicide. The Dow has gone down 5 days in a row and our signal turned up. It is a solid "long" signal and coming a day before Christmas should bring good cheer.  Don't forget the markets close early on Wednesday. Please pick up your free password we posted our long term views this past weekend.

Comments: December 22, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Monday's negative showing was good for us, moving our Rydex accounts up to another new high for the year. The last few minutes around the market close changed our signal to a minor short, but too late to take that position.  And as we have said many times, not as reliable as a signal that is steady during the last hour. In a bad economy most of the news is bad, and that held true today as investors chewed over lower earnings and expectations from Toyota and Walgreen.  Please pick up your free password we posted our long term views this past weekend.

Comments: December 20, 2008

Current position: Short: 40% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 60% money market for Monday.  If you don't have a PHD from Harvard, don't feel too bad. The brains at Harvard could not prevent the university from suffering a 22% loss in their endowment between June 30th and October 31 and are preparing for an overall loss of 30% for the year. The market indexes were mixed on Friday and we are holding our short position into Monday. I posted our new long term forecast today. It is not a happy one. Do some holiday shopping, maybe it will help. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 18, 2008

Current position: Short: 40% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 60% money market for Friday.  The markets had a small down day on Thursday and our signal got more negative. Some positive verbiage from the administration regarding the auto bail-out may have moved the aftermarket higher. But we can't get too excited as the list of bankruptcies grows. Today Polaroid filed. Yesterday it was Woolworth's announcing it was closing its 815 stores leaving 27,000 employees unemployed after 99 years in business. The original started in the US in 1878.  The five and dime is dead, it is a sad day for Woolworths, its employees and those of us who loved their stores. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 17, 2008

Current position: Short: 40% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 60% money market for Thursday.  The gloom seems to have returned. The markets did not follow through but did not self destruct either. Our signal turned into an average weight short and we moved 40% in that direction. Chrysler has extended its normal holiday shut down by two weeks, giving the lack of consumer credit as the problem. The market volatility has gradually diminished and we have slowly increased our market exposure. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 16, 2008

Current position Long: 14% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 86% Money Market for Wednesday.  The Fed cut rates as expected and pledged to do all it can to revive the economy. That was what the market wanted to hear and it may carry the market's upward momentum over into Wednesday. The last minute of trading pushed our signal from a "weak buy" to a "strong buy", but anytime a signal shifts that late in a session we are less confident in its conviction.  We are only minimally invested at 14%. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 15, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  We have a very mixed reading for Tuesday.  Our signal is slightly negative, but a number of important factors favor the positive side so we moved fully into the money market. Tuesday's Fed meeting should not have any impact on the markets unless they announce a new set of super powers. A reminder: When you use us as your advisor, we do not hold your money. You open your account with Rydex funds and you have immediate and continuous access to you funds, no windows, no lock ups.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 12, 2008

Current position Long: 35% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 65% Money Market for Monday. We followed our signal to the upside for Monday. And I expect that Friday's small rally will carry over. Going forward however could prove more difficult as the intermediate term trend appears to be calling for a another negative thrust. The most upsetting news of the week was the $50 billion Madoff fraud. Transparence should be foremost in selecting someone to manage your money. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 11, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Once again all accounts reached new all-time highs.  We will close out the week up 70.8% ytd, with an average exposure level for this year of only 53%. Keeping our exposure level low under these volatile conditions lets our clients sleep at night. Our signal flat-lined and we are back in the money market.  News contained the normal concerns about the auto-bail-out package.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 10, 2008

Current position: Short: 35% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 65% money market for Thursday.  Our signal firmed to the short side during the last hour of trading.  The investment community is focused on the auto bail-out and the significance of zero percent T-bill interest rates. It is almost like everyone knows the bail-out will happen and are waiting for the final word to once again "sell on the news".  I believe funds and institutions are as much into cash (T-bills) as their charters will allow and that buying, combined with foreign money has pushed the rates to zero. That is a lot of potential for when things turn around.  But it may be a long wait. We, on the other hand make a daily decision and rely on time-based-diversification to keep us out of long term down drafts. Our three year track record has out-performed the markets and made money on our long trades as well as out-performing the markets and making money on our short trades.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 9, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  All accounts reached new highs again today and our compound rate of gain is running 32.2% going back to Jan 06, a few weeks short of three years (fees not included). Over that time period we were 32.4% less exposed to the markets than the Nasdaq 100. This is achieved through active daily account management. Today $30 billion dollars of one month treasury bills sold for 0% interest as the flight to quality causes many to move funds into short term treasuries. This is an interesting phenomenon with implications for the dollar and deflation, and will be addressed in our next long term forecast which is now well overdue.  Our signal stayed flat all day and we moved back into the money market. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 8, 2008

Current position: Short: 32% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 68% money market for Tuesday.  The normal Friday carryover was supported by the automobile bail-out rally, allowing the markets to tack on a strong gain.  Tuesday should reverse Monday's progress. Our signal became negative and we moved to the down side. These bail-out programs are adding significantly to long term debt which is already overtaxed by Medicare and Social Security. Of course, without saving the economy first, there would be no Social plans to worry about. But the long term health of the stock market will need a special pill. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 5, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Three times this week all our accounts reached new all time highs.  We were able to compound gains of over 10% from two days of up markets and two days of down markets, with one day spent in the money market.  What is most important here is that we were only 50% as exposed to the market forces as the NDX.  Being able to trade in either direction and being able to allocate only a small portion of our funds to the market during times of high volatility keeps our risk well below that of the market in general. For Monday our signal is very mixed, there is a good chance of an early rally as carryover from Friday, but I do not expect it to last.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 4, 2008

Current position Long: 10% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 90% Money Market for Friday.  Thursday's market drop left us with another new all time high for our clients. This is exactly how time-based diversification works. By not being in the markets very long in any one direction we can avoid  a severe declining market while picking off gains on both the up days (like Wednesday) or the down days (like Monday and Thursday) and avoiding those days when we do not have a very clear signal by spending time in the money market (like Tuesday). For Friday we found our signal toying between a weak "long" and "money market", we decided on a very low level of "long" market exposure. Though the longer term trend is down I expect that we could easily see some upside progress over the next two weeks. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 3, 2008

Current position Short: 32% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 68% money market for Thursday.  Good day for the markets. Great day for our accounts as we made new highs and pushed well through the +60% ytd number. Our signal reversed for Thursday and we moved negative.  I don't believe this dangerous market can support much more to the up-side. Our  T-Index is a very negative and deflationary -452.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 2, 2008

Current position Long: 31% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 69% Money Market for Wednesday.  (I had the wrong date posted yesterday hope I didn't confuse anyone.)  Our program seems to think we have another day of upside. I don't think we have that much more, since the last twenty minutes on Tuesday may have eaten most of the potential. The after-market has drifted a little lower as of this writing.  On the other hand our probabilities, especially for the NDX, look good. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 1, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday. Our 36% position in the Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x fund on Monday netted our accounts their second largest one day gain this year and brought all accounts up to "new high" status. The final few minutes of the market plunge pushed our signal up enough for a minor long position, but too late to take it, as we moved fully into the money market. The volatility climbed higher as the markets sold off.  The markets have now given up more than half their recent gains. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 29, 2008

Current position Short: 36% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 64% money market for Monday.  Black Friday has past with early indications that sales were slow. Our signal turned short, and with the volatility dropping some, we increased our exposure, though still well below normal levels. We gained over 5% during November bringing our year-to-date total to over 50%. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 26, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Nice run for the markets, but I remain a skeptic. The Vix, though fallen from its extreme levels remains high, and the daily market changes are historically large. Obama seems to be doing and saying the right things to ease fears.  Our signal remained flat, Friday is a shortened day with Rydex trading only once.  Wishing all a happy Thanksgiving. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 25, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  Our signal went flat again later in the day and we moved fully into the money market. From a charting point of view, the five day chart looks like a head and shoulders pattern that could bring the NDX back down to 1080, but the SPX does not support that view, (and we do not use charts for our positions) . The Fed announced the purchase of $500 billion in mortgage backed securities and that gave real-estate related securities a boost.  We have a number of conflicting components at this point and we will wait for a better signal for our next position.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 24, 2008

Current position Short: 30% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Tuesday. Beautiful up day for the bulls with a Citigroup rescue, Obama team plans and Thanksgiving.  Almost too much to expect a carryover and our signal moved solidly to the down side.  2009 will be a lean year for the government with almost no capital-gains taxes coming in, and two on going wars.  State and local government are facing the same problems compounded by decreasing real estate revenue and unemployment payouts. All of this curtails normal government spending, decreasing the revenue of small and large businesses that depend on it, lowering the earnings estimates and real earnings for almost all companies.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 22, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  This past week we called the direction correct 3 out of 5 days, but still sustained a loss.  Managing risk is a very important part of investing, and the primary focus of what we do.  If you wish to keep your gains you must avoid being in the markets when there is not a clear advantage to being exposed. Investing one day at a time allows you that advantage. We do not have a strong enough signal for Monday to take a position so we will wait. The economy is becoming more deflationary with our T-Index now at a -456. The return on the 90 day t-bill is basically zero. The volatility continues to climb signaling a continuation of the crisis.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 20, 2008

Current position Long: 21% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 69% Money Market for Thursday.  This morning as the Vix approached 80 I decided to trim our long position down to about 23% from 29% at the morning fix, feeling that we were a little over exposed for current market conditions, that Idea was correct as the market closed lower.  For Friday our signal pulled back a bit but remained strong.  We are comfortable with our reduced exposure under these more volatile conditions.  If things weren't scary enough take a look at (X) US Steel Corp which has lost about 90% of its value in the past 5 months while reporting record earnings. So just what kind of fear or reality has motivated that kind of selling?  So glad to be doing this one day at a time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 19, 2008

Current position Long: 29% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 71% Money Market for Thursday.  The begging of the Big 3 auto industry CEO's was not pretty.  It started with them arriving in private jets.  These folks showed no confidence that they would not be insolvent in a number of months even if they received the loans. It wasn't pretty to watch, and was one of the reasons for Wednesday's tumble. Our signal gained strength and we held on to our "long" position. The VIX remains very high and our T-Index is making new lows now at -430.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 18, 2008

Current position Long: 30% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% Money Market for Wednesday. The markets moved up and down and closed slightly higher.  Our signal held steady and we held our position. Probabilities are looking to the up-side. We received almost two hundred additional hits on our site Monday when someone mentioned us on a blog or forum. If any of my readers know where that came from please send me an email. Looks like they did a good job. Our T-index is still very negative and deflationary.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 17, 2008

Current position Long: 30% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% Money Market for Tuesday. We reversed our position from Monday and reduced our exposure back down to 30%. The VIX not only remains at a very high level, but is creeping higher showing that the level of fear in this market is running unabated.  Our signal for Tuesday shows good up probabilities with only mild potential downside risk. We still remain cautious. The rate on the 90 day bills closed at 0.09% forcing our T-Index to another new low.  I regret that it looks like the long term forecast will be delayed a bit.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 14, 2008

Current position Short: 35% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 65% money market for Monday.  This was a good week for us, closing with a year-to-date gain of +54%, surpassing our previous record high in 2006 of +51.7%. The market continues to be dangerous and we continue to remain only partially invested, which is still enough to generate a generous return. Monday looks like a downer, but the final drop in the last few minutes on Friday made our short signal a little less negative. Probabilities however still look very negative. Our T-Index hit another new low at -405. I am very concerned about where the economy is going and will make a big effort to put together another long term forecast over the next few days.  I was going to wait until the volatility dropped but I need to update my comments for you.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 13, 2008

Current position Short: 34% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 66% money market for Friday.  Investors were very concerned that Paulson switched directions on the bail out indicating that he really didn't believe in his first proposal. This did not send out the message of confidence that investors want and need to start buying.  So I don't know what kick started the market Thursday, other than my indicators were saying "go long" and we did.  Our program anticipates the market rather than follows it. So even if we were just lucky, once again our accounts are at new highs.  For Friday we got a short signal and we reversed direction.  I doubt that this rally will have any real follow through. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 12, 2008

Current position Long: 31% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 69% Money Market for Thursday.  If Best Buy's poor forecast on Tuesday knocked 5% off the indexes what will Intel's bad news do? The aftermarket has moved lower. It looks like November will be an uphill battle. Our T-Index is now a negative -399 and that is the lowest I have seen over the past 15 years. We are holding on to the 30% level of exposure for today since the probabilities did not present us with alarming numbers for "average amount down", if these numbers start to grow or if our program encounters a number of large negative days, we will be ready to make an adjustment.  This is active management and that is what we do.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 11, 2008

Current position Long: 33% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 67% Money Market for Wednesday.  Seems like the only ones partying these days are executives at AIG.  But they couldn't even get that right, as reporters uncovered their $343,000 worth of fun. Among the non party-goers are the companies who couldn't get the hand outs and are filing for bankruptcy. Interest rates on jumbo loans are over 8% while 10 year treasuries are below 4%. Financial institutions can lend at lower rates but won't. There will be no housing recovery at these rates.  Perhaps they are expecting a surge in inflation not too far down the line. But our signal turned up and we moved to a 33% long position on the strength of the signal.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 10, 2008

Current position Short: 30% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Tuesday.  Tuesdays often reverse Monday's trend, but our signal is "short" and the market did have a good pop on Friday. So we are looking to the down side. Our probabilities are also very negative. There should be lighter volume with some investors observing Veteran's day. The markets will still be open and we will be here looking after our accounts. Our T-Index is very negative and deflationary, and the VIX remains abnormally high. The market continues to be a very dangerous place.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 7, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Friday's gain moved all our accounts to new highs for the year. Though we are happy about that, our joy is tempered by the knowledge that millions of people are suffering along with the economy.  President elect Obama reminded us today that October marked the tenth month that the economy shed jobs. I am sure he will do what he can, but not all advice is good advice.  In California Governor Schwarzenegger proposed a hike in the sale tax to 10%.  Did he not consider the jobs and sales that would be lost to California through internet purchases because a tax of that size would be a huge deterrent to in-state purchases and more than compensate for out of state shipping costs? I have a number of unpopular solutions to the economic problems, but I think they make good sense.  This morning Dylan Ratigan on CNBC said taxes make excellent incentives. I agree and one thing that can be done through taxation is to restore US jobs.  This can be done with an additional tax on foreign earnings combined with a tax credit against social security taxes.  For large companies doing some of their business overseas the total taxes paid might be a wash, but the incentive is to hire more US workers and create less overseas work. The credits would go to both workers and businesses. And the implementation would be over perhaps a three to five year period to allow for businesses to adjust to the new conditions. With credits also going to workers the minimum wage would not need to be raised, and the credits would act as a stimulus to those who still have jobs.  It would also be a deterrent to the practice of "under the table" payments to workers to avoid taxes.  Seems like a win-win situation to me and I welcome your comments.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 6, 2008

Current position Long: 20% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Friday. Thursday's down move helped us out and we now have a gain for November. Our signal is positive but not very strong, yet the path looks higher and we took a small long position. Corporate operating earnings estimates are not reflecting the strong dollar and those earnings should continue to fall. S&P will most likely continue to cut them on a weekly basis as they have for most of this year. But we see the big money in the daily market changes and continue to adjust our direction to suit a variety of components not just earnings.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 5, 2008

Current position Short: 30% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Thursday.  Our signal turned short and probabilities look very negative for Thursday.  The election is over and it is back to the realities of the economy.  The new president should strengthen our foreign relations and the possibility of ending the war and stopping the 10 billion dollar a month drain on the economy should at least slow the drop in the stock markets. Even with that uncertainty out of the way the unreasonably high level of the Vix is keeping me from from having any faith in a longer term forecast. For now it is still one day at a time.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 4, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  Tuesday's large market gain caught me by surprise as did the big jump in oil prices and fall of the dollar. Not my day. Our signal moved to the sidelines and so did we. The markets may make a false start Wednesday morning in either direction so be careful. We will wait in the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 3, 2008

Current position Short: 30% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Tuesday. Mondays market closed flat for the second day.   Our signal became more negative and we doubled our market exposure.  The markets have quieted down prior to the elections, but investors are most likely assuming the Democrats will be the winners. The Vix has fallen some over the past few days and we have been slowly building up our positions.  We adjust our amount of market exposure to both the strength of our signal and the volatility of the markets in order to show a more steady return on our investment.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 31, 2008

Current position Short: 15% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 85% money market for Monday.  The NDX closed flat and our signal shifted between short and the money market in the final half hour of trading.  Eventually it settled on the money market.  We trimmed our short position back to 15%. The market behaved well this week and could continue to climb, but I would like to see the Vix at a more normal level and that level is much lower.  The election should not have any effect on the markets unless McCain wins, as that would be a surprise and markets don't like surprises. I am not sure what the overall effect would be, but that would help some stocks and hurt others and probably send the Vix higher in the confusion.  Make sure you vote it is important.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 30, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Friday.  Our signal became more negative, and our probabilities more reflective of a downward moving market.  We increased our exposure to 20%, still remaining quite small in light of the very high volatility.  The administration has chosen to extend the war into Syria, perhaps as a parting gift to Obama.  When this gets thought through it should help propel the market lower. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 29, 2008

Current position Short: 10% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 90% money market for Thursday.  The one half percent rate cut was expected and the markets just shuffled along.  We exited our Rydex funds at the AM fix and took a quarter percent ding.  Our signal is only slightly negative for Thursday so we just wet our feet with the inverse fund.  Generally a down move comes two days after a large up move so unless Tuesday's "kicker of a day" gets legs, we should turn lower. The Vix continues to remain at historical high levels so caution still rules, stay small.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 28, 2008

Current position Long: 10% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 90% money market for Wednesday with exit at AM fix.  Tuesday was a relief rally acknowledging that the markets were not going to plunge on the anniversary of the 1929 crash.  The strong market gains continued into the close moving our signal from "long" to "money market".  We had already reduced our exposure down to 10% from Tuesdays 20 and will exit early. Today's market move pushed our year-to-date gains to well over +40%. But this market is more about limiting exposure and being flexible and able to adjust for market direction than about raw gains. Large raw gains can often indicate taking large risks, something we work very hard to avoid.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 27, 2008

Current position Long: 20% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Tuesday.  Monday was a much calmer market day but still managed to frighten up a two and a half to three percent drop in most markets. The late afternoon down turn pushed the VIX to another new high. October 28th and 29th marks the 1929 stock market crash. I am not looking for a repeat this week, as I expect some upside on Tuesday and a rate cut on Wednesday at the Fed Meeting.  Our signal has switched to the long side as the market negativity moved to an extreme, yet I also don't think that we have seen a bottom.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 24, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market.  We are expecting more down side for Monday.   Our signal is almost as negative as it was for Friday and we are holding our short position. This week we spent two days in the money market, had one gain, one loss and one tie. Our total for the week was barely positive but it looked great against the 7 to 8 percent losses of the indices. The VIX had its all time closing high on Friday closing over 79 after reaching 89 at the opening. These numbers are very high, but even so we could see even more fear on Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 23, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Friday.  Even I didn't think we would recover from Thursday's early drop. Glad to be trading small. The first order of things is to preserve capital, then we aim to make money.  Our signal for Friday is a "Short" and we moved into the inverse fund. Recent tech earnings reports have been good, but the comments going forward are negative and putting a damper on the NDX.  For those who like excitement take a look at SRS the Ultra short Real estate ETF, not to buy, but to observe. This ETF seems to be in a blow off phase and once it cracks, will probably give insight to a market bottom. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 22, 2008

Current position Long: 20% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Thursday.  Like on last Wednesday, the down move took the NDX to a new closing low for the year, but remained above a recent intraday low.  The same pattern is holding for the other indices and looks like a base is forming. The Vix climbed sharply and closed within a few tenths of an all time closing high. I expect that Thursday should turn higher in line with our strong "long" forecast. We are maintaining a low exposure due to the high Volatility.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 21, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  A bad market day and another mixed signal leaves us in the money market. The VIX did not move up very much on Tuesday's down-move, indicating that fear is leaving the market. But like yesterday's forecast, be cautious, since the danger does not appear to be over. The aftermarket is well above fair value and we should have a higher opening.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 20, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Our focus today is on the Vix coming down to 53.6 from Friday's 69.6.  This is the first hint of an improving market. Though hopeful, large one day drops are usually followed by one or two down days. We have a money market signal for Tuesday. With upward momentum from Monday, and a history of going lower on the Vix falling, we could have an up, then down day. I will wait for a more one-sided signal for our next trade. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 17, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Monday. Our program is working well under these high Vix readings with three out of three good calls this week (+2 money market days).  Although more comfortable with those results, we are still adjusting for the increase in volatility by staying small. Our signal for Monday is very negative and would justify a greater downside exposure in a more normal market. The credit markets seemed to be loosening up on Friday, but there does not seem to be any sense of urgency buying of stocks at this level. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 16, 2008* Sorry late post.

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  After dropping about -4% this morning the Nasdaq 100 recovered to close up about +5.5%, another wild ride.  We managed to get about a +5% gain for our clients this week while only being in the market three days of the five days, and exposed an average of only 25% as much as the NDX on those three days. Well above average returns and well below average risk is what we strive for, and have achieved over the past three years.  Friday's signal is a mild "long", the probabilities are looking better than the signal strength would indicate, and most of the change came in the last ten minutes of the market day.  We have to be careful in this dangerous market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 15, 2008

Current position Long: 20% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Thursday.  Wednesday's down move took the NDX to a new closing low for the year, but remained about 4% above Friday's intraday low.  The futures market is currently well below fair value, indicating a lower opening and very probably a test of the intraday low.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 14, 2008

Current position Short: 12% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 88% money market for Wednesday.  The expected pullback did not carry very far to the down side, but I expect that there is some more to come on Wednesday and we added to our small short position.  Fear continues to dominate the market with the VIX closing over 55. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 13, 2008

Current position Short: 6% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 94% money market for Tuesday.  Gigantic rally on Monday should have cleared away the shorts. As far as I can tell that was not an all-clear signal.  I put my efforts into making money as consistently as possible, and that means stepping along at much less than 100% until the market gets back to normal trading and the VIX is significantly lower. Good chance the markets will open higher, so we will have to wait to see what it looks like later in the day. It will be interesting to see how much more the overseas markets will travel this evening.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 10, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Another wild ride in the stock market Friday. Our signal moved from "long" to "out" and back to "long", but that was close to closing time and we moved into the money market.  The VIX continued to climb making new fearful highs.  A secondary source of selling is from people and companies trying to fund projects that they started, expecting to be able to get financing.  When the bill is due, and no money is in the till, selling securities is the only fast way to generate cash.  We most likely will see a rally Tuesday or Wednesday.  The bond market is closed on Monday giving the Treasury department an extra day to come up with an idea.  With the volume as high as it has been, and the market going straight down, a bounce should come next week regardless of what the Treasury does.  With the credit problems still plaguing the markets it is not unreasonable to compare our crash to 1929.  That crash started out much more quickly and the DOW lost about 46% in only two and a half months. Then there was a partial recovery.  We are now into the problem for a year, at that point stocks were still down about about -36%, roughly the same as our -39%. The market bottom arrived in 1932, almost two and three quarter years after the start of the decline, and by that time the markets had lost over 89% of their original value. On the plus side if this is just a run of the mill crash we can expect it to be over with a 40% to 45% total decline.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 9, 2008

Current position Long: 7% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 93% money market for Friday.  Our tiny position has taken a few hits this week, but the gap between our positive return for the year and the market's negative return has grown significantly wider. It is possible that the S&P is headed for the low of October 2002 and that is still 15% below today's closing price. However, if the S&P continues to fall at today's rate of -7.5% it will only take about two days.  It is very hard to call a bottom when we find ourselves in an area that does not present many comparisons in the way of historical data. A look at our probabilities reflects the situation. it shows that the potential size of a down-day is much larger than that of an up day, even though the chance of down day is less.  Continue to watch the VIX. It closed at 64.3, the largest that I have seen.  This is over three times the average and it needs to go much lower for a stable market. So we are keeping our exposure small. Our signal strength lessened a bit but remained strong and we held our position.   The average hedge fund is down significantly for the year and are adding to the problem by dumping their positions to meet redemption requests.  (The smart money is with us.)  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 8, 2008

Current position Long: 7% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 93% money market for Thursday. Stay small. No reason yet to adjust our exposure or position. The Signal remained long and strong, but the market is not responding so we must remain cautious and mostly in the money market.  The Vix index increased, saying fear is growing rather than shrinking and more volatile days are ahead.  Today's news was the joint cut in interest rates by banks around the world. Mostly symbolic and telling us that the countries can and will work together.  The stock market is pricing in a significant drop in earnings going forward from our calculations (and like everything else we do here we have our own method). Some of the drop will be because the Euro is losing ground to the dollar and our multinational corporations get more than half of their earnings from overseas. The rest will be due to economic shrinkage as credit is stifled, companies fail and budgets are cut.  We are again entering a deflationary cycle where cash dominates. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 7, 2008

Current position Long: 7% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 93% money market for Wednesday.  Get small. Large moves in the market, up or down are usually a sign that the market will go lower.  Our Signal remained long and strong, but because the last two strong signal days were ignored by the market, it is telling us that we have an abnormal condition. Over the past 15 years we do not have very many similar situations, and the picture is mixed, so the best way to handle this situation is by keeping our exposure very low. All things considered we cut our exposure in half for a second day.  I believe that it is the unknowns in the overseas economies that are causing the fear in the US markets. We should be seeing a plateau while investors decide if the recovery efforts will work. The markets are now greatly undervalued based on earnings and interest rates, even allowing for a large drop in earnings going forward (if these efforts fail). So expectations are set for a disaster, and once that scenario is ruled out, the markets should work their way back.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 6, 2008

Current position Long: 15% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 85% money market for Tuesday. We blew out half of our long position at the morning fix as a protective move. This is not a normal occurrence, but we like to keep our exposure as small as possible during risky times.  Our signal gained strength and we stayed long with reduced exposure due to the high volatility.  Today's drop can be attributed to two factors, the overseas banking problem that unfolded over the weekend and the wave of stock dumping by frightened investors who reached their limit Friday and could not stand another day of down. The Vix is at all time high levels indicating extreme fear and we must keep our exposure low. On the good news side the Fed is planning a Credit Default Swap marketplace. That move will provide a way to value the paper that is at the root of the problem. 

This is our first losing day since 9/17. I checked the Morningstar ranking of over 15,800 mutual funds for a three year period and we have out-performed every one of them.  Tuesday could still cause trouble, if you look at our probability chart on the Forecast page you will see that the amplitudes on the down side are very substantial even though the likelihood of going down is less than that of going higher. The futures market also closed weak. Remain cautious of this market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 3, 2008

Current position Long:  35% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 65% money market for Monday. All of our accounts are now at new all time highs.  We gained about 6.5% for the week, conservatively keeping our market exposure to less that half that of the Nasdaq 100 at all times and spending two days 100% in the money market.  If anyone still doubts that this method of investing works you haven't been watching. There is now a 68% difference between our 38.5% gain and the Nasdaq 100's -29.5% loss.  And since nearly half of our gain was made on the long side it wasn't done by a simple   short. These are our real accounts for real clients and yes we are taking on new clients.  The Nasdaq 100 climbed 4% higher Friday morning in anticipation of the House passing the bail-out bill but the high didn't last long and at the final bell the market closed off more than 1% we got to watch from the money market. The signal for Monday is "long", I expect to see some of the volatility drain out of the market going forward. The Treasury is now set up to feed any failing banks to the big five banks, and the Fed will most likely cut rates. This should help calm shocks to the markets as investors see patterns in the methodology. (Correction on Thursdays comments CIT should have been C, CIT Group is different from Citigroup). Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 2, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  More bad economic news exacerbated the downtrend that started on Wednesday night. Thursday's gain for our accounts pushed our year-to-date total over +38% and a nice way to start the fourth quarter. We have a very strange signal for Friday, in that we have both strong positive and strong negative components. This left us with a slightly negative signal, with lots of uncertainty.  There are now five major surviving banks, jpm, cit, bac, ms and gs and as a group they should benefit the most from a passage of the "rescue bill". One thing is clear to me, Congress must limit the number of pages in a bill. The original bill had three pages. It has grown to 451(associated press number). Few can read and absorb a bill this size. I say vote to limit all bills to 25 pages or less. If more is needed, use a second 25 page bill. This should cut out most of the BS, and make it so Congress really knows what they are voting on.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 1, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Thursday.  So far nothing has changed enough to reduce my caution. I expect the bail-out-bill to pass this evening, but our signal is negative. There is talk about suspending the mark-to-market requirements for mortgage valuations.  Of course that is the same thinking that got them into this mess. Don't look at my ability to pay back that loan today, I'll be making much more money next year.  A peek at the early aftermarket shows the markets moving higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 30, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  (Sorry I thought this was posted last night.) We ended this month almost where we started it with all our accounts at, or within two tenths of a percent of, a new high for the year. After an early loss in the beginning of the month we managed to finish strong putting together 7 positive days in a row in the midst of a financial meltdown. We reduced our exposure consistent with the increase in volatility and uncertainty.  This also closes out another positive quarter, with a strong 11%+ gain.  For Wednesday our signal lost strength and moved fully into neutral territory leaning very slightly to the positive side, but not enough to take even a small position. It is still exceptionally dangerous and we could very well see some more bad drops in the near future. Like they say on TV, we are professionals, don't try this at home.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 29, 2008

Current position Long:  20% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Tuesday.  Horrendous day.  Not since 1987 have we seen this type of a market down day.  Perhaps the markets are telling the law makers that they need to hurry.  Our accounts gained 1.9% on the day, by being only partially short and having the rest safely tucked in the money market.  Although we show large gains over the past three years we believe the best way to make money is to avoid taking unnecessary risks. So we adjust our exposure to both the perceived risk and the volatility. It is also important to note that we made almost exactly as much of a return on our long positions as on our short positions since the beginning of 2008, showing that with effort, a good return could have been made on the long side of the market this difficult year. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 26, 2008

Current position Short: 10% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 90% money market for Monday.  I am getting the sense that the markets may not do the victory dance when the bail-out gets approved.  And some form of a bail-out will almost definitely be approved. Our signal remained "short", but also became less negative meaning that the enthusiasm for going lower has decreased. A great amount of uncertainty surrounds the markets and we once again reduced our exposure to it. Even with our limited exposure we managed to gain 3.8% for the week having every day correctly positioned. I suggest you talk with us. We have better than hedge fund returns, and have done so with less risk, no cash tie-ups, no high fees and complete visibility. And we have done it for years.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 25, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Friday. We reversed our position, but remain relatively little exposed. This small exposure was enough to gain us about 3.5% so far this week as both the S&P and NDX  lost over 3%, fully exposed to the market forces. Thursday could have been the market blow-off on news of a possible resolution of the bail-out. That seems to be what our numbers are telling us with a strong negative signal for Friday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 24, 2008

Current position Long:  20% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Thursday.  Our signal vacillated near the close, changing our weak "long" signal to one for the "money market".  At 20% long we are not too exposed, but we will make a decision in the morning regarding an early exit. The Congressional hearings continue. Warren Buffet has started the move to accumulate stock in the bank holding companies. When we look back to recent history we saw money go into internet IPOs then out of them into Real-estate then out of Real-estate into emerging markets and commodities then out of emerging markets and commodities and into ?... Could banks be the next big play. BOA's purchase of MER, GS's conversion to a bank holding company and Mr. Buffet's $5 Billion move indicates that it could be starting, so keep your eyes open as some more shocks will probably come first. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 23, 2008

Current position Long:  37.5% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Wednesday.  Bernanke, Paulson and Cox presented their case to Congress this morning. Investors realize that this is not a done-deal, and even if it was, there are other problems that will arise out of it.  So the market is paying the price, declining over 5% in the last two days. We expect Wednesday to go higher. Our signal is strong and the probabilities look good. Our program is handling these difficult times quite well, but we are still aware of the dangers and remain only partially invested. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 22, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Tuesday.  We are holding our small short position another day as our signal gained only a small amount of strength. The bail-out plan is being questioned. A better bail-out plan, I think, would be to purchase only a partial interest in the bad paper. 50%-60%. That would set a value on the paper, provide working capital for the problem companies, allow more companies to participate and still leave the government some working room. I was glad to see that Office Max OMX survived today's sharp drop, with a loss of only 2%.  They had a secondary exposure to Lehman Brothers and lost about 20% on Friday. I thought that hedge funds might finish them off, so I am glad that they were not badly hurt today. (We do not have a position in OMX).   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 19, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money for Monday.  Rydex inverse funds will continue to operate as usual since they are not dependant on short sales to obtain their inverse characteristics. Instead they utilize the futures markets and other techniques described on their web site.  

From our point of view what we are watching unfold is a conflict between the three titans: governments, multinational corporations, and hedge funds. It is obvious that neither of the groups are capable of self regulation.  Each of their operations has been flawed.  The corporations convinced the government to relax laws and look the other way as they scooped up huge profits. The governments allowed themselves to be lobbied, bribed and manipulated and the hedge funds, without conscience, moved in to decimate the playing field. They are all responsible for the current destructive state of affairs. Before I get a barrage of emails, I will let you know that I was just as much opposed to the operation of the labor unions that tied up the corporations and state governments in the second half of the 20th century. Good intentions and need start the pendulum off, greed adds power and it goes too far allowing opposite good intentions and need to stop it and push it back, only to have greed come in to push it back too far the other way.  

Not to get too long winded, our signal turned negative. We continue to be cautious since there is an abnormal amount of random and unpredictable news events effecting the market at this time, so we held our exposure to 20%. The VIX remains over 30 and our T-Index remains in a deflationary mode at -131, telling us the "all clear" bell has not rung.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 18, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  The markets had a strong rally based on talks about implementing a plan similar to what saved the markets and economy when the savings and loans failed.  Our signal remained long but weakened. With uncertainty coming from the domino failings of financial institutions and positive attempts from the government, there was no good reason to take a position.   we have always made our money by avoiding excessive risk.  It does not matter if we miss the bottom, every day is a bottom when you work either side of the market. There is concern about money market accounts, but not with Rydex who uses only government paper in their money market.  Also, although brokerage houses are having trouble, that trouble has not appeared to have spread to mutual fund companies.  Rydex also is less exposed on their long and short index funds because they only take a position on the difference between the amount of capital in their long funds vs the amount in their short funds. This means a much smaller market exposure than other mutual fund companies have to the markets.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 17, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  Carnage on wall street.  The indexes closed on or near their lows with the financials closing off the bottom as the short sellers covered and moved on to more prey.  Crammer on TV, called it last night putting the blame on the chairman of the SEC, Christopher Cox, for doing away with the up-tick rule on shorts. This move paved the way for the hedge funds to raid the banks and other weak stocks. Just another in a series of the protectors leaving the door to the hen house open.  Was today's action capitulation or the start of another down leg?  Our signal though positive, lost strength, and combined with the large drop in the indexes  moved us into the money market.  There is serious wealth destruction going on that ripples through the economy. Our T-Index closed at -368 (strong deflationary indication) but with 90 day t-bills at 0.2% the index is not terrible. We will continue to to utilize our program to step through these tough times and significantly reduce our exposure to keep the daily changes in a reasonable area. We reduce our exposure when conditions become either highly volatile or whenever there is a greater than normal amount of uncertainly. Our program has done very well and I expect it to continue to be the best method for generating significant positive returns on our investments. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 16, 2008

Current position Long:  30% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Wednesday.  The Fed left interest rates unchanged, I didn't agree with that move, but the markets did not mind and ended higher. Our signal strengthened and we held our "long" position into Wednesday. The Vix pulled back a little indicating a reduction in panic.  The 90 day t-bill rate crept up only a little as a large amount of money remain in the safe haven waiting for the next opportunity.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 15, 2008

Current position Long:  30% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Tuesday.  We have a solid long signal, the markets are showing high volatility and investor confusion. This combination calls for reduced exposure. Avoiding unnecessary risk plays a major roll in our investing.  We constantly work to balance perceived risk against possible gain.  The 90 day t-bills rate fell by .65% that indicates to me that investors are expecting the Fed to cut rates by about 1/2% on Tuesday. Monday's sharp drop was orderly and the Fed will do what it can to keep the damage from getting worse. Our T-Index moved dramatically negative reflecting strong evidence of deflation. With interest rates as low as they are, it is not a pessimistic factor for the economy. The events of the past few days will have a significant effect on the long term direction of the market. Proving once again that it is easier to forecast one day at a time. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 14, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  With a flat signal we stayed in the money market.  Tuesday we have another Fed meeting.  Inflation is becoming deflation so a rate raise is definitely off the table.  A nearer term concern is Lehman Brothers, the Treasury wants to resolve this problem without a public bailout. It might be too late for a wink and a handshake to do it. I do think that they can arrive at a smooth landing for the breakup given some more time, but the aftermarket opened with the S&P off more than three percent.  Weighing on top of Lehman is AIG with there own brand of trouble. Some hedge funds are probably going to add to the down side mix with  liquidations.  We are not in the market to roll dice.  So being in the money market for Monday suits me just fine.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 11, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday. Our signal moved sharply lower at the close ending as a "short". When a signal turns very late it is not as credible. We will remain in the money market and watch from the sidelines. The last two days of gains erased Tuesday's loss and made us positive for the week.  Hedge funds have done very poorly this year and what could be happening here, is that individual hedge funds are facing large withdrawals.  Since these funds are huge they can move the overall markets and these are forced decisions not trading decisions. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 10, 2008

Current position Long:  50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Wednesday's market had a small recovery. Our signal weakened only slightly but it still remains exceptionally strong.  The NDX finally stopped falling for a day. The small gain makes it easier for a rally to take hold, though I would have preferred a larger gain.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 9, 2008

Current position Long:  50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Tuesday's decline left us with an exceptionally strong "long" signal. This is the kind of signal that usually results in a highly reliable and large "up" day.  We shall see. I did not increase our exposure since we were just subjected to two large dings in the past 4 trading days, and would be more inclined to reduce our exposure had the signal been of more average strength.  The NDX is doing the falling knife trick.  Dropping over 10% in the past 7 days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 8, 2008

Current position Long:  50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday.  The markets roared, then split apart with the NDX falling behind and closing lower. If you are holding a bank stock or financial that did not close higher on Monday you should take a hard look at it. Today was the day for those stocks to shine and if they didn't, there most likely is a problem. The NDX on the other hand has gone lower 6 days in a row, losing almost 8%, and should be poised for a rebound.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 6, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Our signal is still positive, but has weakened considerably and we moved into the money market for Monday.  The worse appears to be over, from our perspective and I am holding my positive view going into December.  The news regarding Fannie and Freddie, that I suggested would come "soon after the close of the Democratic National Convention" came after the market close on Friday afternoon. The government will seize Fanny and Freddie prior to the opening of the markets on Monday. The common stock should greatly depreciate if not go to zero with the preferred stock maybe doing a little better. This should bring new money back into the mortgage market and help turn the stock market around. The banking ETFs that contain Fanny and Freddie may stall on the opening, but should gain from there. You can go to the CME site <http://www.cme.com> to watch the action in the futures market late Sunday afternoon.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 4, 2008

Current position Long:  40% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 60% money market for Friday. I can not change the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination.....Jimmy Dean.  Our method has provided us with gains in over 65% of our trades this year, but every once in a while we get a ding that hurts until we return to new highs. Our signal continues to be strong, but its strength has dropped from yesterday, so we reduced our market exposure, as we hold on to a partial long position. Nothing fundamental has changed, just one of those spooky days. But that doesn't mean that it can't be followed by a few more. The aftermarket is down so expect a lower opening. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 3, 2008

Current position Long:  50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 31% Rydex S&P 500 2x, 19% money market for Thursday.  The markets continued to slide lower. This was not totally a surprise since our long term down cycle ended on Wednesday and that sometimes makes for a more negative day than would be expected.  Thursday however starts the first day of our up-cycle and that generally gives us an extra boost.  Our signal is very strong and we moved more funds into the Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x fund.  If we are correct the market bottom has been hit and the markets will show an upward climb from here into December.  But nothing is for sure, and so we must continue day by day, expecting to get dinged along the way as we pursue our goals.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 2, 2008

Current position Long:  31% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 31% Rydex S&P 500 2x, 38% money market for Wednesday.  Tuesday was a good day to be in the money market as the markets made a round trip going way up then down. These gyrations triggered a positive on our radar and we moved long.  We also distributed our position between the S&P and NDX. So we are partially leveraged to the up side for Wednesday. I expect this week to provide a pivot point for the markets to go higher, but we will still take it one day at a time, as we step through gyrating oil prices and election news surprises.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 29, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  The NDX had a large drop and our accounts picked up a good gain, closing the month at a new high for all.  It is very important to understand that large gains by themselves are not our goal. We seek large gains with as little overall market exposure as possible. So although we may be leveraged on some days, we compensate for it by being partially or completely in the money market when we do not have a strong enough signal to take a directional position.  With Barack Obama on one side and Sarah Palin on the other, the United States is finally becoming the country it long claimed to be, with freedom and opportunity for everyone.  We are living in exciting times and I am hopeful that whoever becomes the new leader brings this county back to prosperity. Have a nice long weekend and I will post again on Tuesday afternoon.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 28, 2008

Current position Short: 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Friday.  The markets got a boost from the upward revision of the GDP as well as a drop in the price of oil. The NDX  was weaker than the S&P on Thursday and judging by our probabilities the NDX looks like it will turn negative for Friday.  We have taken a small short position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 27, 2008

Current position Long:  60% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 40% money market for Thursday.  We held fast on our long position.  Our signal strength flicked a bit near the close but always remained long and closed basically unchanged.  My new long term forecast (posted yesterday) mentioned that news or rumor would be coming on Fanny and Freddy. The rumor heard today is that there might be a merger of the two, with cost savings and new management. Read the long term forecast!   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 26, 2008

Current position Long:  60% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 40% money market for Wednesday.  Our signal turned to a moderately strong "long", I have only applied a minimum of leverage as I see the main trend as down.  Mortgage rates are too high when compared to the 10 year rates and they are impeding a recovery. These are discussed in my new long term comments just posted today.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 25, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  More mixed signals for Tuesday.  I am looking for a hard drop over the next week or so followed by a longer term upside recovery into December.  A shallow drop may prolong the down side. Often we see the Fed act on aggressive selling, while the gradual whittling away of prices does not seem to get as much attention.  The Next Fed meeting is September 16th. Keep your eyes focused on the next two weeks.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 22, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Mixed signals for Monday put us in the money market. The indexes are holding up quite well and were not down very much for the week. Oil backed off and helped push the markets higher on Friday. Still looking for some downside going into Labor Day.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 21, 2008

Current position Short: 75% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Friday.  For Friday we have a strong "short" signal. Thursday marked our first wrong call  since July 28th. That streak is a record for us. Going forward we are looking for more downward pressure through Labor day.  We also finally got the spike in oil prices that I had mentioned in my July 24th long-term update but had pretty much given up on.  Interest rates still behaving well as our T-Index remained at +29.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 20, 2008

Current position Long:  62.5% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 37.5% money market for Thursday. The market's early morning rally collapsed but recovered enough to close positive. It also provided us with a strong "long" signal for Thursday.  We applied only a slight bit of leverage, remembering that we are still in a market with a downward bias.  Both short term and long term interest rates fell and our T-Index closed at +29.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 19, 2008

Current position: Long, 25% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Wednesday.  I am expecting a small bounce on Wednesday. Our signal improved a little and toyed between the money market and long. Finally settling on the money market, but leaving the probabilities looking positive.  I continue to believe the market will go lower into the end of the month, but there should be a few days to breath and Wednesday could be one of them.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 18, 2008

Current position: Short, 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Tuesday.  We saw the first cracks in the market Monday. I expect the drop to accelerate over the next two weeks, not every day, but overall. Our signal is slightly weaker and enough to take a small short position even though the posted probabilities seem to be leaning higher.  We will continue to carefully step through this market. T-Index healthy at +37.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 15, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  The large drop in the price of oil Friday did very little for the market. This reinforces my view that the next two weeks should see lower stock prices. This said, a continued drop in oil and commodities will at some point be wonderful fuel for a stock rally which we are looking for very soon after Labor day. If the fall in commodity prices is rapid then we might just get the rally early as Labor day is only two weeks away. Our T-Index is a healthy +42 and inflation is now a minor issue so get ready for a rally.  Once again, the gap between our returns and those of the indexes widen. I appeal to our readers to contact us about becoming clients. We have been very successful at keeping our risk and market exposure down while taking advantage of opportunities for gain.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 14, 2008

Current position: Short, 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Friday.  Thursday was another good day for the markets. Our accounts have gained over 9% since July 28th when we had our last losing day. And since nothing lasts forever I expect to get a ding in the next day or so. Our signal is mildly negative so we are only partially exposed to the markets.  The NDX had a short term high Thursday, but the SPX is still a percent below Mondays high of 1305. I expect to see some cracks in the NDX on Friday, if that happens it might just carry over into Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 13, 2008

Current position: Long 50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Thursday.  Wednesday the NDX reached the short term closing high we were looking for, but the intraday high was reached on Monday, and our signal turned "Long" for Thursday. This leads me to believe that there may be some more up-side before the downturn. Those of you who have followed us for a long time know the daily signals are the most important and can contradict our extended views. As we are still in a topping phase I am reluctant to expose ourselves to more than 50% at this time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 12, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  Most markets were lower on Tuesday, but our NDX held fast. Our signal moved up only enough to go flat and we moved fully into the money market. The fall in commodity  prices should be fueling a rally, but the drop in home prices is keeping this positive in check. Now with both home prices and commodity prices on the decline there is no inflation concern. The relative position of short to long term rates is healthy so deflation is not yet a concern. I will post a new long term forecast next week that will take into account these issues as well as the now strengthening dollar. There are some areas of the economy that should benefit from the new conditions and some that won't.  The old leaders are about to be replaced. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 11, 2008

Current position: Short, 62.5% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 37.5% money market for Tuesday.  It is hard to step through a top correctly, but if things go according to plan we should encounter a down day for Tuesday and another up swing marking the short term top on Wednesday. Russia and Georgia at some point should spike oil and the ever present banking crisis should also present some less than desirable news to push the markets lower as this month progresses. Our T-Index did well and closed at +33 moving the short and long term rates into a more normal relative position with each other.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: August 8, 2008

Current position: Long 50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Monday.  Even though this has been a down 2008 for the general markets, we have obtained more than two thirds of our +31% gain for the year, during the days we were long.  Friday the market had significant gains as the dollar strengthened and oil fell. Russia and Georgia battled over the region's main city, but it did nothing to stop oil's fall. The psychology has definitely changed. I will continue to use caution, as I still expect a down August for the markets, and will feel better going long during September. With such high record earnings under their belt the oil companies could attempt to influence the elections by allowing gas prices to fall more rapidly in the two months prior to election day.  (Just a thought, not a suggestion or expectation.) That would fit in well with my view, for a strong stock market in the fall.  10 year rates are falling as inflation is moving off the table as a major concern. For the near term I expect a peak mid week then lower through the month.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: August 7, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Our signal strengthened enough to bring us back to neutral, but remained slightly negative. The S&P might have made a small double top in the 1285+ area and may have topped out while the NDX looks like it could have more to go. We had an excellent week true to our goals, having only been exposed to the markets two of the five days, using leverage when we felt fairly certain of a gain. Our total leveraged exposure for the week was only 50% as much as being fully long or fully short. And we took home a sizeable gain, both from the long side and the short side. That is how the program is supposed to work, of course some weeks are better than others. Looking forward, I expect any additional market upside this month will peak by next Wednesday. Our T-Index remains positive at +18. Banking and oil should dominate the markets for awhile. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: August 6, 2008

Current position: Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Thursday.  Though all of our Rydex accounts were in the money market our Jefferson National accounts did pick up another 2% for the day.  The upside enthusiasm seen these past two days will most likely fade away by Thursday.  Our signal is negative and we have taken a partial short position. I expect that we are close to a short term top for August and by next week should be on a downward path through month end. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: August 5, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday (Rydex accounts). (Jefferson National accounts are long).  With our two day change for this week jumping 5.3% and our total year-to-date moving up to +30.6%,  I need to ask those who aren't already our accounts:  What is preventing you from signing up with us as your account managers?  For Wednesday I expect some carry-over to the up-side.  A strong opening should give some back later in the day while a weak opening should improve (just my opinion).  The late afternoon market spurt moved our signal to flat after being long most of the day.  Do not read too much into this up-move as I still expect to see problems as the month progresses. Our long term forecast updated through December please view it.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: August 4, 2008

Current position: Long 75% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Tuesday.  The Fed meets on Tuesday. Monday's drop may have been in anticipation of some more negative comments but I don't see anything coming.  Clearly we are not out of the woods and the mortgage/banking problem will continue, but commodity prices are clearly receding diminishing the inflation worry.  No reason at this time to raise or lower interest rates. So we should be in a waiting game with an eye on the dollar. Our long term forecast updated through December please view it.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: August 1, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Through the analysis of normal daily trading patterns for August combined with the overall cyclical trend, I expect the market to perform better in the first half of August than in the second half. And the last week in August should be especially bad from this perspective.  But after that, the markets should do a lot better, showing increased strength as the months wear on. Our T-Index is a plus 17 with interest rates low and that should help. I have updated our long term forecast through December please view it.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 31, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Thursday was an inverse repeat of Wednesday's market with the NDX finally breaking down near the close allowing us to gain a small amount.  Friday's signal is negative, but less so than Thursday's so the downward pressure has been reduced. Adding to this on the upside is that Friday is also the first day of the month, which is usually positive.  We shall watch the market  from the sidelines in line with reducing our exposure to the markets unless we have a strong enough signal to warrant the risk. Additions to our long term forecast are really up this time so take a look. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 30, 2008

Current position: Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Thursday.  We rode a difficult day to a successful close. For Thursday we are aimed back down with half our funds and in the money market with the rest. Oil headed back up on Wednesday and if it does not retreat significantly I expect the stock markets to start down once again. Sorry, I did not realize that our longterm forecast update did not post, it is up now.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 29, 2008

Current position: Long 75% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Wednesday.  Oil fell and the stock market moved significantly higher.  We have a strong signal for Wednesday. Most of our components are in agreement and I expect Tuesday's rally to carry further.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 28, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Both the S&P and NDX managed to close above their pre rally lows, but the rally has failed. Trying to look further into the week we have the possibilities for an up Wednesday and a down Friday we shall see how it develops.  Recent update on long term comments. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 26, 2008

Current position: Long 30% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Monday.  Overall market sentiment is still negative.  The recent run-up has left the market a bit over-bought. Our signal is a mild long and we took a small position. The S&P 500 earnings forecasts continue to go lower.  Seeing some stabilizing here would make me more optimistic.  The market evaluation has taking into account some further reductions as its valuation is on the low side looking at past years. I have updated my long term comments so take a look. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 24, 2008

Current position: Short, 30% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 30% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 40% money market for Friday. Our signal became more negative and we took a short position in both the S&P and NDX through the Rydex funds. The markets were well behaved and produced a stable signal. The large drop in the Dow and S&P is not a good sign for continuation of the turn around. I would prefer to see only a small attempt at a pull back, with buyers rushing in. So the rally may be over. If Friday's change is moderate, that direction will probably continue for Monday.  Our T-Index has turned positive closing at +11. The long term forecast was updated today.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 23, 2008

Current position: Short, 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Thursday.  The instability in the markets near the close continues and has now appeared multiple times since the 4th of July. Today our signal moved from money market to short at the close. Instability makes our signal less reliable.  The rally has gone on for six days.  Some of the indexes are over bought and the oil index is probably over sold, short term. Our T-Index which reached a negative -35 two days ago is now only -5. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 22, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday (Rydex accounts).  Our signal was unstable near the close.  We are long 50% in the Jefferson National accounts which got placed earlier. The closing signal was a moderate "long", but unstable signals are not as reliable. Still, I would expect to see some upside on Wednesday as the NDX has already pulled back for two days and closed slightly higher Tuesday.  We could look at today as a one day reversal. The NDX has not participated in this rally, up little more than 1% while the Dow has moved closer to 6%. So it may be time for some market rotation.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 21, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Monday left our accounts with a small gain.  If the aftermarket trend holds the NDX will most likely see a new low on Tuesday.  Our signal calls for the money market but is leaning to the down side.  The earnings reports did all the work of sending the futures markets lower after the close.  We will miss the action as we move out of the fray.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 18, 2008

Current position: Short, 75% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Monday.  This was a good week for us as we tacked on over 5%. Today our signal became more negative and we once again increased our exposure in the Inverse fund.  Is this market rally for real?  Based on the NDX we don't really have a rally. The financials are leading the way with the S&P banking index up over 35% in three days.  Put into perspective that index is still down slightly for the month of July and the large daily changes make it exceptionally risky.  Call us for our free new account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 17, 2008

Current position: Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Friday.  The Dow led the way on Thursday gaining over 200 points with the financials continuing to be strong. Our signal became more negative and we increased our exposure in the 2x inverse fund to 50%.  After the bell Google disappointed with their earning driving the NDX futures market much lower. This could put an early lid on the rally.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 16, 2008

Current position: Short, 12.5% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 87.5% money market for Thursday.  We took a solid gain on Wednesday and moved most of our capital into the money market.  Some negative action in interest rates has offset other positive aspects of this market giving us a slightly negative signal.  Early after-market trading is also to the down-side.  Our T-Index has slipped to -33, but with interest rates low that by itself is of no concern. The probabilities look better for the S&P as the financials may have found a temporary base.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 15, 2008

Current position: Long 62.5% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 37.5% money market for Wednesday. The market gyrated wildly Tuesday, but our signal mostly held firm with some additional strength. I expect that Wednesday will be a strong up day. We continue to be cautious and are holding back. We could get a good size pop in here that could last for a week or two, then expect the trend to once again turn lower.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 14, 2008

Current position: Long 50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday.  Tuesday's signal stayed "long", but started strong, weakened, then ended strong. Having been battered last week I chose to limit our commitment to 50%. The bank scare is very real as anyone can see by looking at the stock prices in the banking world. The rate of decline is startling with the average bank down about 30% over the past three months.  Again I suggest that you limit your banking exposure to $100K per account. There is still money to be made in these markets, but the required skill level has increased.  If you would like some help getting through these tough times please contact us.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 13, 2008

Current position: Short, 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Monday.  The market continued it's chaotic path all week.  Causing our signal to oscillate much more than normal. Monday's signal moved from very strong negative to mildly negative to flat. We most likely will hold our small short position as Monday's do have a history of following Friday and the markets did not lose that much overall this past week. Sunday the Bush administration asked congress to divert public money towards buying the failing stock of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This comes on the heels of the seizure of IndyMac on Friday. The FDIC said that IndyMac was not even on the list of the 90 banks most likely to fail. Our recommendation is reduce your exposure to $100k per account (check the bank for details) and do it soon. The aftermarket is rallying about 1% as I write this, but I don't expect it to hold.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 10, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Still no obvious bottom.  Our signal is very flat. Oil jumped on Thursday knocking the wind out of an early stock rally, but the rally made another half hearted attempt later in the day and the markets closed higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 9, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  We reduced our exposure by half at the morning fix on Wednesday. Our program has been working well, warning us to exit the markets early the past two days. But the market's recent late afternoon gyrations have cost us, It is good that this type of activity does not happen very often.  It is unfortunately unavoidable as it is not something we can forecast. Thursday we sit in the money market. Longer term I am looking for a sustainable rally after Labor day, with the most likely scenario being a failed rally and test of the lows sometime prior to it.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 8, 2008

Current position: 80% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 20% money market for Wednesday.  The large drop in the price of oil and the Fed Chief's comments took a long time to take hold but the market had a strong move late in the day. We had a very strong signal, but the market's last few minutes drained most of our signals strength.  and the NDX also closed on the high for the day.  Under these conditions I would prefer being much less exposed to the markets and will reduce our exposure at the morning fix. We hardly ever trade in the AM and almost always it is to reduce exposure.  This is the first time we traded at the AM fix two days in a row.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 7, 2008 --oops this is late sorry

Current position: Short, 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Tuesday.  Our signal swung from "long" to "short" to unstable at the close. We were left with a small 20% short position and will most likely exit the market at the morning fix.  Our oil component is expecting oil to move higher but that might not translate into a lower general market as the the indexes are mostly already oversold.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 3, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Happy fourth to all. We squeaked through the week with a small gain.  But this is a dangerous market with oil providing some bad cross winds. To counter this problem we now have an oil component that can give us some additional insight.  This lets us utilize the oil influence to better sort out hazy signals. We closed the day with a slightly negative, signal for Monday. Our oil component had the NDX leaning to the up-side. We moved in favor of caution and 100% into the money market, preferring to pick up a little interest over the three day weekend.  Recent market behavior has punished even the fertilizer group, knocking them down 15%-20% in the past two weeks. Our method of investing one-day at-a-time keeps your money liquid and guards against being swept away with the masses when a market tanks. Over the last 30 months we have outperformed the average hedge fund by well over 2 to1. Call or email for our information package.  Our rates are low and we don't hold your money, we just send our signals to your account at Rydex or Jefferson National. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 2, 2008

Current position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Thursday. The markets were battered today after being up earlier. We gave up most of yesterday's gains and slightly increased our exposure for Thursday.  Thursday is a shortened pre-holiday trading day with Rydex closing shop at 12:45PM Eastern time.  Treasury Secretary Paulson picked a bad day to talk about the bank failure process. Many watching were probably thinking "uh-oh here comes another one".  Our signal weakened at the close going from a mild "long" to a "money market" but we were already committed at 37.5%. Hopefully the shortened day will prevent much bloodshed. On the positive side our oil related indicators are calling for a small recovery in the NDX for Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 1, 2008

Current position: 25% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Wednesday.  We have a very confused signal for Wednesday. Strong indications that it could move either way and unsteady going into the close.  We reduced our exposure to 25% long. Our T-Index climbed to +37, a good sign. The NDX hit a short term low today and closed near its high, and looking at the charts, this is usually another good sign for the up-side. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2008 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2007 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2007 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2004 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2004

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2001

For earlier comments made early in year 2001

For earlier comments made in year 2000

Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil