Daily Market Commentary

Comments: December 30, 2009

Current position 25% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Thursday. Wednesday was another small change day for the markets.  Our program is running over 61% correct for this fourth quarter, but being on the wrong side of the Dubai default and bailout cost us 4.3%. Our high % correct tells me that the market has moved back to more normal conditions with less outside (government) influence. This is very good for us as our program has done well under normal market conditions regardless of direction. Market surprises like Dubai are not detectable by the program as there is no magic and we are not soothsayers. These surprises generally even out over time since we trade from both sides.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 29, 2009

Current position 25% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday.  The markets are just inching along on these last few trading days of the year, not giving us much to work with. Real estate sales were slightly higher for the month due to seasonal adjustments, but they mostly reflect the drying up of the very low end of foreclosures.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 28, 2009

Current position 50% Short :  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Tuesday. Warren Buffett might have had some expansive ideas in mind when he bought Burlington Northern. The Chinese unveiled the worlds fastest bullet train (394kmph). Could Mr. Buffett be thinking "coast to coast bullets"?  Unlike airplanes, trains can make stops without a large loss of time and fuel. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 27, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Monday. With the tarp money going back to the government, and the indices now close to pre Lehman levels the markets are starting to show more normal behavior patterns. The NDX is above the September 08 levels and the S&P is below. That level might be a barrier to further advancement for the S&P and would be a good level to watch. The September 12th 2008 value was 1251.70 about 11% above current levels and a good bet for a 2010 top. More on this when I finally get the long term forecast posted. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 23, 2009

Current position 20% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Thursday.  Our signal is only slightly long. Today's market news was not encouraging, with new home sales down and personal spending below expectations, but the declining dollar helped push stocks and commodities moderately higher.  This past month market has made gains despite the recovery that the dollar has shown. The recovery is almost completely based on large corporation productivity gains and overseas sales and weak dollar. These components elements will be hard to match in 2010.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 22, 2009

Current position 50% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday.  Our signal toyed between the money market and long for the last few hours of the day closing on a long. I prefer a more consistent signal so we are not leveraged.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 21, 2009

Current position 25% Short :  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Tuesday. The NDX was strong the past two days and is sitting at fair value in the aftermarket. The drug and insurance stocks were given the Obama boost today as cost controls don't seem to matter.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 20, 2009

Current position 50% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Monday.  We corrected an error in our posted position for Friday. The aftermarket is positive late Sunday evening and should carry into Monday. Tuesday may reverse both due to the large gain on Friday and the tendency for Tuesday to reverse the Monday move, but we will wait to see how it plays out. I ran our genetic algorithm model all weekend long with very pleasing confirming results. I will discuss this more later in the week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 17, 2009

Current position 6% Short (corrected):  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Friday.  I did not see anything special causing Thursday's tumble other than strength in the dollar. The Fed did not say anything Wednesday that wasn't known and there did not seem to be any big surprises on the earnings front. Asian market were lower overnight. We 100% moved into the money market with our Jefferson National accounts and short with Rydex.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 16, 2009

Current position 95% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Thursday.  Once again the Fed held interest rates and let everyone know creating new jobs was the priority. The markets lost their enthusiasm after the news and gave up most if not all of their gains. Our signal has improved and the probabilities look good for Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 15, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Wednesday. The market started lower went higher and closed lower on Tuesday. The Fed is expected announce "no change in policy" on Wednesday since jobs are not being created, loans are not being made, and the only inflation is due to the falling dollar. Raising interest rates might help the dollar, but the multinationals don't want that since it hurts overseas earnings. And raising interest rates will crush the nonexistent local economy growth along with a damper for home sales.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 14, 2009

Current position 62% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Tuesday.  We have held our position for Tuesday.  Monday's markets gained on the Dubai bail out. When it was announced Sunday it turned the aftermarket around and that carried over to Monday. We hope Tuesday does not hold another surprise.  Citigroup rushed to pay back the tarp to keep their pay and bonuses. It is not about share holders, it is about keeping the piggy bank paying.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 12, 2009

Current position 62.5% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Monday.  All the indices are close to new highs for the year.  We have a moderate strength short signal for Monday. More news has been published on Goldman Sachs participation in the mortgage game. The $ amount has grown to 33 Billion backed by AIG and protected from harm by former Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Paulson. All perfectly legal when you write the rules.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 10, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Friday. Thursday's early rally dissipated as the dollar gained strength. Goldman Sachs announced their top boys would get their bonuses in the form of restricted stock in an attempt to (1) hide it from any attempt to tax it like what just passed in Europe and (2) ward off the peasants with torches. What a bunch.  Our signal is very mixed for Friday but leaning to the down side. I prefer to see a more unifying trend in our components prior to taking a position.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 9, 2009

Current position 88% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Thursday.  I got a call late this afternoon letting me know that I forgot to post yesterday. I do count on all of you to let me know if that happens.  I wrote it, had some technical problems posting, and forgot to try again. So please send me an email or call if you see it missing so I can make sure it gets posted. Wednesday we were 25% short and caught half a lump when the early slide turned positive. We are much more exposed in the long position for Thursday. Wednesday S&P downgraded the debt of Spain (the country).  Another agency downgraded Greece earlier in the week. The US is also in trouble, but will most likely escape the axe.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 8, 2009

Current position 25% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Wednesday.  The sharp early morning drop was quickly reversed to positive on the NDX, then the market took the rest of the day to give up about half the original drop. Our signal gained strength but remained negative. Most news had a negative tone and it looks like some more down on Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 7, 2009

Current position 62.5% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Tuesday.  Small early gains were erased and Bernanke's restatement that rates will continue to remain low hurt the dollar but did not help stocks. Gold and oil also declined. Raising rates a little would help the dollar but that is not what the multinational corporations want since it hurts overseas earnings. It also hurts US investment which is already suffering from deflation and does not need any more negative stimulus. My view on large rate increases is opposite to what many you may have read, since I believe that rather than attract capital, large rate increases would look like the typical third world hyper-inflation policies and cause a panic drop in the dollar. Either way the local US economy gets the losing hand. All bad. So rates will most likely stay where they are for many months.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 5, 2009

Current position 92% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Monday.  We have a strong signal which in the absence of very negative news should result in good upside for Monday.  For the past three trading days the market rallies have failed, but our signal for Monday looks good and we are almost a full strength. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 3, 2009.....late posting

Current position 25% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Friday. Our money market signal turned slightly long near the close and we took a small long position.  With little news, today's market pull back should act as a relief valve and enable the market to obtain further gains. The aftermarket is weak so we may have to wait for an afternoon rally.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 2, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Thursday.  The markets have recovered almost all of the Dubai drop, and now are looking for direction. Wednesday's market gave up early gains to close slightly higher or lower depending on the index. No trends seen from my program although the probabilities look negative.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: December 1, 2009

Current position 100% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday. We have a strong signal and have increased our position to 100% long.  I expect the markets will have another strong day or two prior to any pullback. There was not much on the news front for Tuesday. I expect new market highs this week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 30, 2009

Current position 82% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Tuesday. The Dubai incident should quiet down now as the total US exposure was not that large. The markets look poised to go higher as Monday's trading should have calmed the bulls.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 29, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Monday.  Most market shocks cause the market to move to the down side. Since we are not soothsayers we can't forecast the news. We do however have almost a 50% chance of being on the correct side of the disasters since we can be on either side of the market. We were however on the wrong side of Dubai. Friday our signal moved to the money market which is a good thing because not all the news was out on Friday and we do not trade the markets unless we believe we have a statistical edge. What we may see going forward is a temporary slowing in the emerging market gains. Not all governments are created equal. Hugo Chavez took over 4 banks in Venezuela about a week ago but it is very hard to know what was going on there.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 25, 2009

Current position 100% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Friday. As the volatility falls we are able to increase our leverage on what we feel are our less risky trades. Doing this provides a more uniform daily level of risk. And a better overall risk reward ratio. The markets close at 1PM Eastern on Friday with the Rydex funds closing at 12:45.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 24, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Wednesday.  Our signal is leaning only slightly higher and moved us into the money market. Perhaps the players are taking an early holiday. Markets are closed Thursday and the Funds close early on Friday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 23, 2009

Current position 25% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Tuesday.  Tuesdays often fail in follow-through and our signal was only mildly positive. Both positive and negative signal strength has been very low since early November.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 22, 2009

Current position 50% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Monday.  We decreased our Jefferson National position to 25% but held our short at 50% in the Rydex accounts as the markets pulled back near the close. I was not able to post our long term forecast as more research is necessary. We would normally expect positive market movement this week with Thanksgiving coming this week, but we have noticed some negative factors from the dollar's recent movements. Overall more positive than negative. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 19, 2009

Current position 50% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Friday.  We increased our downside exposure for Friday. After the market closed Dell had poor earnings and the market slid some more.  The Techs are starting to get hit with bad news after a tremendous run up. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 18, 2009

Current position 25% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Thursday.  Sorry, late post, we remained in the short position and it looks like the market will close in our favor.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 17, 2009

Current position 25% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Wednesday.  Rather flat day in the markets.  Our signal moved from out to short over the last half hour and we took a small short position in the Rydex funds. The markets my be running ahead of potential earnings at this point but could continue to go higher. I will be posting a long term view on the weekend.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 16, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday.  Our signal is for the money market, but leaning lower. By some measures the market is very overextended, but this is a market driven by foreign earnings and fueled by a weak dollar. Longer term we see a 1987 type problem brewing with 1987 consequences. Shorter term the ripples have not shown themselves. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 13, 2009

Current position 50% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Monday.  Monday is the last day of our down cycle which would mean either a sideways or strong uptrend though year end. With the administration pushing for a weaker dollar the stock market should continue higher as our internal economy struggles well into next year. More on this when we issue our new long term forecast later this week. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 12, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Friday.  Not much driving the market for Friday and our signal is only slightly negative. I expect that we might see a down day Monday as our cycle expires then another surge upward. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 11, 2009

Current position 52% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Thursday.  The market looks like it has started leg three of the current bull market. The NDX has now gone up 8 consecutive days, not a normal occurrence. Generally this is a good sign for the market. but not for the next few days because of the over bought condition. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 10, 2009

Current position 52% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Wednesday.  The market paused on Tuesday with the NDX and SPx falling shy of breaking their October highs. Our down cycle influence ends by the 16th.  We might see new highs on Wednesday with a winding down over the following three days since the markets are now quite stretched. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 9, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday.  The market strength was mostly caused by the falling dollar.  Although you will hear that a weak dollar is good for exports the big push behind the weak dollar is bigger profits for the multinational corporations; therefore good for the stock market.  As the dollar falls corporations are encouraged to put more money to work overseas. Which means less jobs in the US. It isn't just cheap labor that creates overseas jobs but foreign profits too. You put your resources where the profits are.  For Tuesday we find a market that has already risen 6 consecutive days, our signal is very mixed with strong components on both sides of the question. Most likely the markets will push higher to take out the previous recent highs of October, but the risks are high as the market is overbought.   Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 6, 2009

Current position 50% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Monday.  We have a mild short signal for Monday. Since it is mild and following an up Friday I do not expect to see very much in the way of a slide. The short term condition continues to look lower with our down cycle influence ending by the 16th. But as those who watch us know we will continue to take our positions one day at a time.  Once again we are outperforming the S&P and NDX this quarter as we have for the past 4+ years see the chart on our forecast page. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 5, 2009

Current position 78% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Friday.  After three days long we have a negative signal and reversed to the short side. Too may horns are blowing. Dow over 10,000, Fed meeting over, Better than +2% gains in the Dow and NDX. All of these things help the down side cause but there is always a chance that the rally has a bit more steam. Earnings reports were mixed to positive. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 4, 2009

Current position 67% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Thursday.  Disappointing day as a strong rally faded to zip. For the chartists it did fill in the opening gap and closed positive, giving a positive sign. Our signal remained long, but less strong. Post Fed days usually show strength regardless of what the fed does and I expect Thursday will follow along on a positive note. Once again, we are in a deflationary phase and raising interest rates can't stop the few existing inflationary areas like oil which are global by nature and outside the control of US interest rate movements. If you want to worry forget inflation and look at commercial real estate, the lack of available credit and broad corporate top line revenue shrinkage.  These are better sources for worry. Thursday should go higher, but the market is not behaving well and we should resume the down-trend by Friday. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 3, 2009

Current position 67% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday.  Small gain on Tuesday supported by Warren Buffet's purchase of Burlington Northern. The purchase of the railroad company says a few things. Since their earnings are from US operations it hints at a stronger dollar which is linked to lower fuel costs. It also says that the internal US economy (not necessarily the stock market) should improve. Wednesday the Fed announces their decisions. Our T-Index readings are firmly deflationary so I don't expect any changes.  Our signal remains long and slightly more positive.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: November 2, 2009

Current position 67% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Tuesday.  Although we are looking for more downside over the next couple of weeks our daily signal is positive and we moved "long".  Monday's early strong rally could not hold and the markets dipped lower before closing positive for the day. The upward trend should continue into Wednesday and perhaps Thursday which is usually a positive day.   Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: October 30, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Monday. We closed with a gain for the month in our accounts. The market looks like it has more downside but the last few minutes after the close of our trading our signal moved from "money market" to "long". Monday usually follows Friday's lead so we should expect at least early weakness, then perhaps a full or partial recovery later in the day. But my skill is not in micro forecasting by the hour. Our signal was for the "money market" going into the close and that is where we sit. Nine banks went under on Friday, more to come.  Since our cycle low comes mid November I do not see this market going into a long term decline at this point. Target another 4% down by then. At that point in time we could see the market get itself into a more sideways pattern that could last a while.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 29, 2009

Current position 25% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Friday. Thursday's market gapped higher at the open and kept on going. Our study of "up-gap behavior" over the past 16 years shows a bias to the down side for the following three days, which would have cost a buy- and-hold portfolio about 5% per year. Thursday's strong GDP gains may look good on paper, but there are only a few pockets of life. I believe the smart phones will offer growth opportunities for a number of years as they basically become computers and take on larger life guiding roles. This will be at the expense of various stand alone products that will mostly disappear from the shelves. I also expect fewer shelves as the virtual stores continue to erode the bricks, putting more pressure on commercial real estate.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our management program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 28, 2009

Current position 73% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Thursday.  With two extended multi-month rallies and the very good tech earnings announcements completed, the markets needed a pause. The top took two weeks longer to form than I expected, but it is done and the drop has not only begun, but may already be one-third to one-half completed. If we are half way, the second half may fall more slowly. I expect that the markets will test Wednesday's lows and hopefully they will not penetrate them very far as we have a strong "long" signal.  Our signals are one day signals, and I am looking for more down side into November.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 27, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Wednesday. Odd day as the Dow gained and the NDX fell. But all indices are most likely rounding a top to go lower. Our T-Index remains very negative in a deflationary mode. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 26, 2009

Current position 48% Long:  Rydex NDX 2x fund for Tuesday.  After an early rise the market reversed and remained lower for the rest of the day. The latter part of the day is generally more telling of sentiment and Monday did not see any escalation to the down side as the day wore on. We know overall sentiment it is now negative, and as the market continues to make a top it certainly looks like the next big move will be down. Our signal closed "long" and spent the day fluttering between the long side and the money market. So what we have is a "weak" long signal. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 25, 2009

Current position 54% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Monday. We had the first taste that something is wrong on Friday. Blockbuster earnings from Amazon (pushing the stock up nearly 27%), and Microsoft (up over 5%) could not keep the market afloat. In the spring this would have caused a +3% move in the index instead of a decline. Sentiment has changed but the market is holding on. keep your eye on the sentiment as it should be a leading indicator of a change in direction. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 22, 2009

Current position 20% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 80% Money market for Friday. This market seems to want to keep on burning and has managed to slowly add to its topping pattern.  Our signal for Friday's market is mostly money market with a touch of the down side. The small changes are not giving our program much to chew on. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 21, 2009

Current position 20% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, 80% Money market for Wednesday.  Our signal was short for most of the day turning flat near the close. We cut back on our short position, we would have moved fully into the money market but late signal changes are less reliable. The Ebay earnings did not look bad, but expectations were higher and the market soaked the stock about 5% after hours. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 20, 2009

Current position 57% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Tuesday. As good as Apple's earnings were, money that went to Apple came out of some other companies total since the economy is not growing. Dupont's 3rd quarter sales dropped more than expected and Dupont is a broader measure of the economy. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 19, 2009

Current position 57% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Tuesday. I realize that we are going short into what should be super Apple results, so there could be some euphoric carryover.  I expect that it won't last through the day. The indexes did make some new 09 highs on Monday and they are amazingly resistant to the downside so far.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 18, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Monday. Based on the after-market it looks like Monday will follow Friday's lead and head lower.  Most likely the top we suspected would come last week has arrived and the down turn could be hard and swift. If would not be unreasonable to see the S&P give up a large portion of its gains for the year. What I will find interesting are the reasons provided by the news services.  Our signal for Monday was for the money market. Our cycle study puts the bottom of this down turn in early to mid November. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 15, 2009

Current position 55% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Friday.  The Dow and S&P gained while the NDX moved slightly lower.  It is interesting to note that the S&P was at these levels back in 1998 and the Dow was there in 1999. This is a long bear market. But investors are optimistic that this time is different, and the short sharp run from March will continue indefinitely. Certainly things were a lot better back in the late nineties, so why should this time be the charm? Our signal turned negative.  IBM's earnings report was positive but the reception in the aftermarket was negative and the stock was -4% in early trading. Hopefully it will carry over into the NDX and reinforce our forecast and longer term view of having reached an intermediate top.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 14, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Thursday.  Thursdays are generally positive so an extension of today's rally, even into 8 straight up days would not be much of a surprise, but I believe we are at or within one day of the top. The market did gap open and our signal was firmly in the money market all day.  A lot of churning today near the high levels of the day with a pop at the close pushing the Dow to 10,000. Good for selling newspapers and getting less sophisticated investors into the market. Our overbought indicator was triggered again now 3 in a row. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 13, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Wednesday.  Intel posted upscale earnings and revenue after the close. This will keep the markets alive a little longer. The markets should gap higher and that is what to watch for. If the indexes have a significant gap, the market top should occur early in the day. If the market creeps higher then more upside could follow on Thursday. Just my views of course. Well known analyst Meredith Whitney down graded Goldman Sachs on Tuesday sending that stock lower. I still expect that Dow 10,000 will mark the top here. Our signal bobbed between a weak short and the money market, we leaned to the conservative side. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 12, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday.  Monday the markets hit new highs then lost most of those gains. Our signal turned negative near the close but toyed between short and the money market. The NDX & S&P both show 6 consecutive up days and our overbought signal was also triggered. Add to that, Tuesday is also the last day in our longer term up cycle which generally produces a last gasp up day. Put them together and the money market looks like the best choice.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 9, 2009

Current position Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Monday.  I am looking for the market top this week. After the long run and two false dips the market should be ready for a significant breather. Probably enough to take the wind out of the happy buy and holders. My target top is Tuesday with a day or two either way. I believe the top will coincide with a turn around in the dollar and a fall in oil prices. Our trading will, as always, stick with our program's signals.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 8, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Friday.  Retail sales were positive, but that was against a terrible September 08. Alcoa kept the markets afloat. Most of the early gains were given back. Our signal is for the money market and leaning negative.  I am expecting a new high on Tuesday then another pull back. In any event I am looking for a lower market in the second half of next week. But we will still be going one day at a time using our program. 

Comments: October 7, 2009

Current position Long: 79% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Thursday.  After the bell Alcoa surprised with a profit and sales beat expectations. This could keep the three day rally going.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 6, 2009

Current position Long: 79% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday.  Australia raised interest rates, a good sign that the economic recovery is starting...... in Australia.  The dollar fell again pushing up the price of oil. The markets surged, tacking on good gains as they run for a test of recent highs; now only a little more than 1.5% away on a closing basis.  Looks like they will make new closing highs and maybe even pop through the intraday highs. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 5, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday.  I believe we have started the last gasp higher for October. Good gain on Monday, perhaps a pause on Tuesday then a run for the recent top peaking about October 13th, our cycle top date. Since our program takes many more things into consideration we take our positions one day at a time, we will sit out Tuesday.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 4, 2009

Current position Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Friday.  Friday the market worked at stabilizing and closed a bit lower. The immediate damage is most likely complete or within one percent of complete. Thursday was the toss the towel day so expect sunshine this week. I also suspect that last week was just a warning shot. And around mid month we will see another, more powerful thrust down.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 1, 2009

Current position Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Friday.  Was that the sound of Tarp money leaving stocks? It doesn't matter, the drop was the largest since mid June. The market closed on the low of the day which by itself gives a 16 year, 65% historical chance of going higher the next day.  We can't use that information in our program since it isn't available when we place our transactions about 8 minutes earlier.  But our program continues to be long and we have held our position. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 30, 2009

Current position Long: 80% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Thursday.  A weaker than expected producer price index was the catalyst for Wednesday's decline. For a second day in row the markets fell upon reaching close to the previous day's high. (NDX in particular). Investors are getting jittery. October should be a very exciting month for everyone in the markets.  Our signal remained long for Thursday.  Good news on our program development. I was able to reduce the percent of days in the money market from 28% to 24%. This should enhance overall long term return. I posted a new long term forecast last weekend, take a look. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 29, 2009

Current position Long: 80% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday.  A weaker than expected consumer confidence index was the catalyst for Tuesdays decline. It came just minutes after the market attempted to surpass Monday's high which gave traders good reason to exit. Our probability figures look good for Wednesday and we are holding our position.  I posted a new long term forecast last weekend, take a look. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 28, 2009

Current position Long: 80% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Tuesday.  This run should bring us up to and probably through the old highs earlier in September.   I posted a new long term forecast last weekend, take a look. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 27, 2009

Current position 25% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Monday. Our signal is primarily for the money market, but leaning to the short side. I expect that there is one day left to the down side.  What must be also be considered is that the market was already down three days in a row, a positive sign, but since that the next trading day is a Monday which is the weakest day of the week, we took the small negative position. Our indicators are saying that there should be one more strong up-surge prior to mid October when we should expect a scary slide.   I posted a new long term forecast last weekend, take a look. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 24, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Friday.  Once again the Pros sold into the early rally. Friday is more of an enigma, prior to the late partial recovery we were looking for an Up day for Friday, but the rally took some of the steam out of the expectations and kept our signal flat. Our week ended a day early with another money market signal and a small weekly gain. The housing news was not good.  But consider as more people lose jobs and more businesses lose business, the overall income of potential buyers is contracting. Some potential buyers will no longer qualify for loans and as foreclosures get bought up the average home price will start to rise. Not individual home prices, which will continue to fall as more homes previously held off the market come back on, but the average itself will rise as the lowest priced homes leave the pool. So if you own a home you will see its value continue to fall as fewer buyers surface, while the news reports will be cheering the rise in average home prices. There are two economies out there, one which shows earnings of the multinational corporations rising along with home prices and the other one, that most people live in, headed in the other direction.   I posted a new long term forecast this past weekend, take a look. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 23, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Thursday.  The Fed held firm as expected. As I mentioned on Monday, Fed meetings often produce short rallies which add liquidity for selling . Following the script the market rally was sold into Wednesday, turning a 1% gain into a1/2% loss for the NDX. The day following Fed meetings generally go higher as investors are relieved that the FED is working to make things better, it doesn't matter what the outcome of the meetings are. This time we have some cross currents and there is more of a chance that any rally will be sold into. If that scenario plays out the markets will be higher in the AM than at the close. I posted a new long term forecast this past weekend, take a look. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 22, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Wednesday.  Our signal remains flat. The market moved slightly higher ahead of the FED announcement which will be on Wednesday. I posted a new long term forecast this past weekend, take a look. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 21, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday.  Our signal is flat and our probabilities are mostly leaning lower. I believe that our comments last week will still hold and we will see a mild pull back this week. I expect the FED to remain firm. The multi-month rally should be near completion so early professional money should start coming out of the market and will be partially replaced by retail buyers. Fed meetings often produce short rallies, adding liquidity for selling.  I posted a new long term forecast this past weekend, take a look. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 18, 2009

Current position Long: 64% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Monday.  The market crept a bit higher Friday. I expect some positive carry-over into Monday, pre-Fed meeting. I am expecting the first market cracks to show next week after the Fed meeting. I have just posted a new long term forecast with the details. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 17, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Friday. The markets closed just enough lower to  confound traders counting up days, giving the market a pause and license to continue its slow climb. My guess would be for the markets to go slightly higher through Monday then start a one week decline on Tuesday, but at this point it is just a guess, since most of our software is designed for only the next days price move.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 16, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Thursday. Our clients got a long overdue, better than 2.4% gain on Wednesday as the Bernanke rally took hold. Our signal moved back to neutral and we moved to the money market, which would be the prudent thing to do in any event. Curiously the T-Bill rate dropped to 0.095% sending our T-Index to new heights and reinforcing our statements about deflation still being with us. Also we saw the VIX rise along with the markets, generally they move in opposite directions. This is often (about two thirds of the time) an early warning sign that indicates that a short term correction is coming. Historically those corrections would start in a few days and last about a week. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 15, 2009

Current position Long: 86% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday.  The market crept a little higher on Tuesday. Adobe beat estimates and is making a 1.8 billion dollar bid on a web service firm. Adobe fell on the news in after hours trading, but the negative trading should not spill over into the other techs as any purchase in this economy is a positive sign. Bernanke's statement that the recession is likely over is the kind of thing that sometimes marks market tops, but today's dull response looks like it will be ignored and the market will plod on a bit further.   Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 14, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday. This time our signal stayed flat all day long. The market had small gains and the NDX closed on the high of the day, this leans the probabilities in the negative direction. However the market has shown great resilience and might just climb a bit more. So I would not trade on that indicator alone.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 11, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Monday for both programs. For the second day in a row our signal moved from money market to "long" at the close.  And as I said before this type of late signal is unreliable. (Aside from the fact that it comes too late to trade.) We are reading that insiders are selling at a very high rate. This is what one would expect with a rapid rise in company shares but an economy that does not show much chance of a boom cycle. Most investors have very short memories and tell themselves that what has happened over the past three months will continue. Sorry, but markets move both ways and as buy and hold investors unhappily know, we have been in an overall bear market for the past 9 years. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 10, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Friday for both programs. Our signal moved from short to money market mid day then at the very close turned to long. Signals that change at the close are suspect and change too late to take a position. The Obama speech obviously did not ruffle the markets and after a shaky start they moved higher into the close. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 9, 2009

Current position 45% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Thursday. Our signal is a mild short. According to our indicators the market has moved into over-bought territory making it more likely to have a pause. No surprise in the "cautiously positive" Fed outlook and the markets gave up only a small amount of their gains. The dollar hit new 2009 lows today. This pushes up commodity prices from food to oil making it worse for our economy from both a small business and worker point of view, the multinational corporations love it since most of their income is coming from overseas operations. Once again we are finding external inflation from the rise in commodity prices, and internal deflation from local price cutting. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 8, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Wednesday for both programs. After giving us five days of a "long" signal our program moved to the money market, the signal is slightly negative, but the probabilities look positive enough to suggest that the up move could last another day. However we prefer to have stronger signals when taking a position. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 7, 2009

Current position Long: 47.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Tuesday, both programs. I will be back for full comments on Tuesday.

Comments: September 3, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Friday for both programs. Our signal was for the money market most of the day but turned to a "weak" long on the close, too late to trade, so our accounts are flat. I expect that there could be some early strength on Friday but our "late in the day" signals are not as reliable. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 2, 2009

Current position Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Thursday, 100% long in the long/money market testing fund.  Wednesday was an exceptionally flat day. This is a big vacation week and flat days are common. One of the most dangerous trading patterns is two down days followed by a slightly up day. This sets up a condition for traders that reads "the market only recovered enough to relieve the oversold condition so more downside to follow". This is different from what we saw today which was two down days followed by another slightly down day, this one reads as "three down days in a row" and is positive. Trading patterns don't come with guarantees, but they can help guide your decisions. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 1, 2009

Current position Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday, 100% long in the long/money market testing fund.  A disappointing day as early gains turned to a loss on mostly positive news. This marks, I believe a return to a more normal market after months of upward market movement on any news at all. I like more normal markets, as frustrating as they may be on the surface. Our signal gained strength as the markets became oversold and additional program components added to our long signal. Probabilities look good. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 31, 2009

Current position Long: 76% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Tuesday, 100% long in the long/money market testing fund. I believe their is still a lot of money waiting to get into this market and these summer pull backs will be quickly bought. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 30, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Friday for both programs. Since we are in the money market for Monday we will close out August with a very small gain.  The lack of market movement can signal a top or set a new level. With the last trading day of the month set for Monday and the month end/beginning usually a market positive any downturn could be delayed a few days while any upturn should start immediately, however we are not reading it.  Our program is designed to only trade on clear signals and to keep down periods to a minimum. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 27, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Friday for both programs. Looks like the uncertainty term I used yesterday to describe the changing signal was correct as the markets dropped sharply only to recover to slightly positive.  For Friday we have a money market signal that is leaning lower. This is the fourth day of little change in the markets. I continue to believe the overall direction of the markets will be positive till mid October. Once again not much on the news front. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 26, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Thursday for both programs. Our signal turned short after the Rydex cut off time, indicating uncertainty near the close. We are in the money market. My early indications are that the markets will start to head lower prior to the weekend. Today the markets response was more neutral to good news. So the rally is tired. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 25, 2009

Current position Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday, 80% long in the long and money market only program. News continues to be light. Our signal got stronger and we moved long. I am working on a seasonal program that hopefully will be ready in the fall. The China market continues to look sluggish. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 24, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday for both programs. The carryover from Friday's up-move lasted only a couple of hours as the markets then turned slightly lower. Our signal is slightly negative, but not enough to trigger a short. Both Fannie and Freddie had huge gains today. Low priced stocks and giant moves. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 23, 2009

Current position Long: 40% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Monday, both programs. The markets broke out to the up-side Friday. It is not a good idea to take a long position on a market that has gone up 4 days in a row unless it is a Friday. Good chance for additional carryover into Monday. Our program only missed two days out of the last seven we traded though we have not made much headway. But as we have seen using a consistent, disciplined method has brought us outstanding long term results. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 20, 2009

Current position 50% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Friday. Long & money market program is in money market.  The market did better than expected on Thursday without much help from the news. The S&P has not made any real headway since breaking though the 1000 mark on August 3rd and that holds for the NDX and NYA as well. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 19, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Thursday for both programs. Although the markets plunged early on following China's overnight drop, they recovered to end higher. Our  signal moved to the money market, the probabilities are still leaning higher, but other factors are expecting some down side. Earnings are mostly over for the quarter so there should be less surprises. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 18, 2009

Current position Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Tuesday, both programs. Tuesday's news was light and the large drop Monday lured traders back into the market. I expect to see a day or two more of upside then another scare, but probably not as bad.  Our signal continues strong and we increased our exposure.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 17, 2009

Current position Long: 57% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Tuesday both programs. The markets were doing well in the after-market late Friday but once the Asian markets plunged Sunday night the American slide began. China seems to be leading the markets lower having already lost seventeen percent off early August highs. Our signal is now very strong and we are holding our position.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 16, 2009

Current position Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Monday both programs. Although only a moderate long signal it is reinforced by bond activity. On the opposite side, Monday's market direction generally follows Fridays lead and the aftermarket is lower as of this writing. Our accounts had a good week recovering all of the small loss for the past month and a half, and bringing us positive for the quarter. We also had a higher number of signals which means the program is getting stronger signals from the market a good sign for our clients. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 13, 2009

Current position 40% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Friday. Long & money market program is in the money market. Our signal turned negative reinforcing yesterday's comments. With two days of rally mostly based on the FED non action a pull back would be expected. Wal-Mart posted lower same store sales, below their own expectations but higher than analysts expected. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 12, 2009

Current position Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Thursday both programs. The Fed left things unchanged and the markets moved as anticipated. Our program gained a small bit of strength and we increased our exposure. There is usually some follow through the day after the Fed meets, but early indications are that Friday could be a downer. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 11, 2009

Current position Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday for our original program. The second program is 60% long.  The market is chattering around the 1000 area in the S&P. Our signal is medium strong and with a two day pull back it should be a good place to go long. The Fed will have some comments tomorrow but with the T-Index firmly in deflationary mode and business sales in a hole there should be no increase in interest rates and no surprises.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 10, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday for original program, long & money market only program remains 25% long. We have a money market signal that started leaning lower near the close. Not much news and the Fed meeting should not add much either. The China market headed lower last week and could be a leading indicator. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 7, 2009

Current position 25% long Rydex NDX 2x fund for Monday (both programs). Our long signal weakened near the close putting doubt on the reliability. Monday generally follows Friday's lead and we hope that continues on Monday, but the rally is getting tired. The employment figures showed a drop from 9.5% to 9.4% in the unemployment rate, but that did not count the 400,000 that fell off the rolls in July. The real rate is well over 16%. Could be another pause this week but there is strength and the market is once again finding diamonds in coal. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 6, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Friday, both programs. Our signal turned flat, with components very mixed. The markets fell a small amount for a second day. It was the first back-to-back loss in over a month. Market still appears solid. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 5, 2009

Current position 50% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Thursday. Long & money market program is in the money market. The signal for Thursday is a "short" and it was confirmed by some recent bond activity.  A component that we have just added to our program. However, Thursdays have been strong up days this year, so we will have to see how it plays out. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 4, 2009

 79% long (long only program).  Our program moved to the long side, but we received a money market signal in the last minute of trading (too late to trade), this puts some question as to the reliability of our long signal. On the news front I continue to be concerned as US income dropped again last month. Ford is doing well with the government cash for clunkers program, but the other top sellers are going to Toyota and Honda. This should eat into auto sales in the fall so expect fourth quarter auto sales to disappoint. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 3, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday for both programs. Investors sometimes act superstitious around certain index numbers like 1000. And that is where the S&P is. So expect some irrational behavior the 1000 level spun the market in June, July, August and September of 2003. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 31, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Monday for our original program. The second program is 25% long.  The market has now spent six days in a holding pattern without showing any real signs of weakness. With significant gains over the past thirty days a digestion period is expected.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 30, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Friday for our original program. The second program is 25% long.  Big early market gains were trimmed as the day wore on. Unemployment figures are now seeing many leave the count as their payments run out. Foreclosures that started as the 100% financed 3 year adjustment mortgages blew up now are being fueled by the unemployed as well. There continues to be new money flowing into the stock market as small pull-backs are quickly eliminated.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 29, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Thursday for both our programs. The market has spent the last four days in a tight pattern. It is hard to say if this is base building or a topping pattern. Thursdays have been stronger than average but our signal is flat. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 28, 2009

Current position 60% long Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday (both programs). Nothing special in the news on Tuesday.  I have completed my program review and have started to increase our exposure with regard to bringing it back up to our normal levels. This will take place over the next few days. I expect that earnings (not sales) will continue to look good for more than half the reporting companies and, if we choose to ignore the layoffs, the markets should behave well over the summer. Large companies can cut back, trim their workforce close offices etc. Small companies will not be as fortunate with only a few critical employees they do not have the luxury of trimming 10% or 20%, they can't close off half their office space or shop to save on rent and we will see a large number simply close their doors, prolonging the recession.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 27, 2009

Current position 30% Short for our original program. 100% money market for "long and money market only" program.  Not much change on Monday. June home sales are down 21% year over year but up 11% from May. Most of these sales are at the low end as jumbo loans are still difficult to get. This has resulted in a build up of unsold high end homes hanging over the market, many more are waiting for the market to improve prior to being released for sale and many 100% junk loans are still being carried and will be up for refinancing in the coming year. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 26, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Monday for both our programs. A small downturn on Friday and a recovery would make us believe that the recession is over, as the market is roaring. This will not only (most probably) be a jobless recovery it may be a sales-less recovery, with all the recovering due to layoffs and cost cutting. But the markets do look at earnings and we must separate our economy from corporate earnings. Not something we have really experienced very much in the past. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 23, 2009

Current position 20% long Rydex NDX 2x fund for Friday (both programs). Once again like earlier this week I do not like to second guess my program so I have taken a small long position even though the market is over bought by most accounts and the NDX has climbed now  for 12 days. Microsoft came out with soft earnings and sold off after the market closed driving down the NDX by over 1%. UPS whose sales reflect the total economy came out with bad news last night and was totally ignored by the markets even after the CFO said “We don’t have any confidence that either demand or activity is going to pick up substantially” in the next several months. UPS sales figures is one of the best gauges of the strength and direction of the economy since almost all business runs on UPS.  After a market pause we will increase our exposure to a more normal amount. Our first order of business is to protect our capital then, when we have strong signals, take advantage of the programs intelligence for gains. Our new long term forecast was posted last week.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 22, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Thursday for both our programs. With the NDX up 11 days in a row the question is: Who is buying this market?  Ron Paul suggests that the banks are using Tarp money to prop up the stock market. Our take suggests that something is going on other than thousands of investors rushing to put more money in their IRAs. Most investors are still in shock over 2008 and are not looking to take more risks. They just don't have that warm, wealthy feeling that comes from seeing your home value increase, getting large raises and seeing your company grow and increase hiring. Maybe Ron Paul is right, if so when will they pull the plug or run out of cash? Our new long term forecast was posted last week.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 21, 2009

Current position 20% long Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday (both programs). I do not like to second guess my program so I have taken a small long position even though the market is over bought by most accounts and the NDX has climbed for 10 days. I will feel much better about going long after a one or two day pause. Our new long term forecast was posted last week.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 20, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday for both our programs. On October 2 2008 the NDX dropped down from 1563 to 1491 leaving a gap under 1548. The current market closed at 1544 with a high of 1545, markets seem to like filling gaps so I would expect a short trip up to past the 1548 level on Tuesday then a pull back. Our new long term forecast was posted last week.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 19, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Monday for both our programs. With our cyclical indicator now turning positive for the longer term I believe that this market will continue higher. Not straight up of course, but higher over time into the fall. The NDX had its 8th consecutive up day on Friday and that too indicates an upward direction.  This is in conflict with the longer term fundamentals which continue to be dismal and will eventually, I believe, be the undoing of this rally. Our new long term forecast was posted last week.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 16, 2009

Current position 40% Short Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Friday (original program), 100% money market for our "long and money market only" program. Good day for the markets topped off by some reported positive remarks from the professor and economist Roubini. His remarks were apparently taken out of context as he issued a statement saying that his views had not changed and he remains negative on the economy, looking for only a weak recovery in 2010 and the next few years.  Our new long term forecast was posted yesterday.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 15, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for  Thursday for both our programs. Our program is designed to not chase markets in most cases and our signal turned from an early long to money market as the gain extended. Sorry folks we are not soothsayers and can't forecast the news, what we do is read market potential on a statistical basis and right now it is flat. I believe this market has more to go and the multinational corporation earnings should be helpful going forward, but I don't think the recession is over for the average US citizen. You can read my long term forecast just posted today. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 14, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for  Wednesday for both our programs. Our signal is only slightly negative. The market just floated along without giving any real indication of direction. News was not stimulating. The recovery will come at the expense of may jobs and this recovery most likely will not bring employment back to pre-collapse levels for a number of years. We do not have a new industry like computers in the 80's or the web in the 90's. Technology will have to make due with smaller gains and no mega-hits. The big gains in productivity are done. Housing prices continue to fall with rents now starting to fall along with them. Young people without jobs are not moving out on their own, leaving more rentals available. Oil prices which moved back up earlier in the year did so without the normal increase in demand so expect to see deflation remain in the forefront. Intel did however did beat the street with better than expected quarterly sales figures and had positive guidance causing the aftermarket to soar. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 13, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday for both our programs.  Very strong up-move on Monday with both the NDX and S&P closing on their highs. This is generally a negative sign for the next day. But our signal is very mixed and we are staying out. Nothing in the news, but analyst Meredith Whitney had an interesting take on Goldman Sachs. "Our more bullish outlook on Goldman Sachs shares is deeply rooted in our sustained bearish stance on the U.S. economy and the state of U.S. financials at large."  Many years ago they said what is good for General Motors is good for America, now it is what is good for Goldman Sachs is bad for the USA. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 10, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Monday.  The markets slipped this past week.  The markets could not find cause to celebrate as all asset classes continue to slide. We might find some temporary support after this four week decline. But from charts we are looking at the 820 level on the S&P.  Our signal for both of our programs is for the money market.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 9, 2009

Current position 50% Short Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund for Friday (original program), 100% money market for our "long and money market only" program. The markets spent a second day trying to digest the recent losses. It was helped by the gain in oil which we mentioned yesterday. Oil will probably not be of much help on Friday as it is in its seasonal down-turn. Our signal is moderately short. No special news today, but total unemployment went higher. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 8, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Thursday.  The gains in most indexes has relieved some of the over-sold condition, this could cause another wave to the down side. Oil which has traded in tandem with the stock market is still very oversold and could make a small recovery. Our signal is slightly negative yet our probability readings are somewhat positive. With so much conflicting data it is good day for the money market. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 7, 2009

Current position 25% long Rydex NDX 2x fund for Wednesday (original program), 50% long Rydex NDX 2x fund "long and money market only" program. Our signal remained in the money market until very near the close and then flickered between long and money market.  Because of the lack of stability we reduced our exposure. Oil fell and has driven the oil index (xoi) down over 15% since the beginning of June. The gold index (xau) has fallen over 17% since early June. The stock market is now oversold and a bounce is expected. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 6, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday (both programs). The Dow and S&P managed to close higher on Monday. Our readings are leaning to the down side. Oil managed to rebound late in the day with gold closing lower. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 5, 2009

Current position 100% Money market for Monday (original program), 36% long Rydex NDX 2x fund "long and money market only" program. The long signal we had for our long and money market progam turned negative by the close too late to move to the money market. Our original program had a money market signal.  Monday's are generally week and often follow Fridays lead.  I am currently revisiting some seasonal work that I did a number of years ago. In that work we found that oil prices started to move lower in July and with the stock market currently closly tracking oil as well as other commodities this is not a good market sign. The S&P is now negative for the year along with the Dow. The NDX continues to hold strong but I do not think it will be able to make gains alone. Matt Taibbi makes some compelling points regarding Goldman Sachs in the Rolling stone. <http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/the_great_american_bubble_machine/>        Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 1, 2009

Current position 25% long Rydex NDX 2x fund for Thursday (original program), 37% long Rydex NDX 2x fund "long and money market only" program. This holiday week has slowed the markets but there should still be some slight up draft going into the 4th. Overall the markets and asset classes are losing their momentum and a downturn, as we go further into the summer, would not be a surprise. Banks and homebuilders have peaked but on the flip side may soon be ready for a second run, though the economy does not appear to warrant any enthusiasm. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2009 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2009 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2008 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2008 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2007 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2007 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2004 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2004

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2001

For earlier comments made early in year 2001

For earlier comments made in year 2000

Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil