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Daily Market
Commentary
Comments:
December 29, 2005
Long
for Friday. 50% Velocity. As our T-Index once
again dropped to +12, lowest reading of the year, the market
weakened. We reduced our long position to 50%. Please
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Comments:
December 28, 2005
Long
for Thursday. 100% Velocity. Improvement
in our t-index, now +15 and a strengthening of the probabilities should
lead to an up-day on Thursday. Closing targets for the S&P are
1252 and 1265. For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1649 and 1696.
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Comments:
December 27, 2005
Long
for Wednesday. 100% Velocity. Our
probabilities strengthened but once again our T-Index weakened,
closing at +12. Looks like there is danger ahead. Since our
T-Index is only an approximation +12 is not very comforting as to the
strength of the economy. The yield curve does not have to invert to
signal danger. A yield of 4% in the T-Bills and 4.25% in the
10 year notes would give us a negative T-Index. I will post
another long term report prior to year end. Please
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Comments:
December 23, 2005
Long
for Tuesday. 100% Velocity. Our daily
signal improved to 100% long, as our T-Index weakened to +13. This
index is too weak to give us any feelings of confidence for the new year
as far as the economy is concerned. Another rate hike by the fed
would surely push the index into negative territory and it may not even
take that much to send us into a tail spin. In light of this I will
have another long term report prior to year end. Please
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Comments:
December 22, 2005
Money
market for Friday. We moved 100% into the
money market for Friday. Our signal was "short", but we
did not have support from the probabilities. Couple this with the
day before Christmas holiday and it seemed best to go into the money
market. On a negative note the T-Index lost ground to +15.
This is the lowest we have seen since the recovery and indicates to me
that the economy will not be able to support another Fed rate
increase. With corporations flush with cash and not having any good
investment choices there is little competition for funds, leaving the 10
year bonds floating along under 4.5%. Please
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Comments:
December 21, 2005
Long:
100% Velocity for Thursday. With the transit
strike and Christmas we should see more reduced trading days this week and
next. The T-Index closed at +19. We continue fully long.
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Comments:
December 20, 2005
Long:
100% Velocity for Wednesday. Cyclical
influences are now positive. The T-Index closed at +18, not great, but
above zero. Our signal continues strong and we are
fully long. Please
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Comments:
December 19, 2005
Long:
100% Velocity for Tuesday. Monday was a big disappointment.
We are holding on. Our signal continues strong and we are
fully long. Please
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Comments:
December 18, 2005
Long:
100% Velocity for Monday. I am ready for a
resumption of the rally. Our signal continues strong and we are
fully long. Please
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Comments:
December 15, 2005
Long:
50% Velocity for Friday. T-index now at
+21. We should see higher prices and we remain "long", but
I do not expect any major gains till late next week. Please
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Comments:
December 14, 2005
Long:
50% Velocity for Thursday. Rates on 10 year
notes dropped to 4.45%. Our T-index is now 22. We have a full
"Long" signal, but the probabilities are not overly
strong. Looks like some cyclical pressure will be coming in on
Friday and Monday which should keep the lids on any strong
gains. Please
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Comments:
December 13, 2005
100%
Money market for Wednesday. Tuesday the Fed
confirmed what the market already knew. We are near the end of the
tightening sequence and they raised rates by another quarter. More
important for us was the reaction of our T-Index which closed at +25 and
very stable. 10 year notes are actually lower today than on October
31st, a day before the last interest rate raise. Our probabilities
are mixed, but stronger on the NDX while our Signal was mildly
short. Looked like it was best to stay out since the signal and
probabilities were in conflict. Please
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Comments:
December 12, 2005
Long:
100% Velocity for Tuesday. Another fully long
signal. Tuesdays often reverse Monday's direction, but we should
continue higher. The T-Index continues to strengthen closing at
+26. The market is having trouble going higher, mostly because of
the increase in the price of oil (once again over $60 a barrel). Please
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Comments:
December 10, 2005
Long:
100% Velocity for Monday. We continue our
string of strong up signals. I expect the market to continue its
up-trend as the week progresses. The T-Index strengthened to +
25. Closing targets for the S&P are 1250 and 1267. For the
NDX look for 1675 and 1713. New long-term
forecast was posted Dec 6th...Read it! Please
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Comments:
December 8, 2005
Long:
100% Velocity for Friday. I believe
we can safely buy the dips as our signal continues
to stay "long". T-Index climbed above +20. New long-term
forecast was posted Dec 6th...Read it! Please
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Comments:
December 7, 2005
Long:
100% Velocity for Thursday. We continue to get
strong "long" signals but the market is just stepping in
place. Closing targets for Thursday's S&P are 1249 and
1266. For the Nasdaq100 we have 1677 and 1725. New long-term
forecast was posted yesterday...Read it! Please
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Comments:
December 6, 2005
Long:
100% Velocity for Wednesday. Good news today
as unit labor costs dropped and productivity surged. The market
however only gained a small amount, most likely, allowing for another
up-move tomorrow. I posted a new long term
forecast today so. Please
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Comments:
December 5, 2005
Long:
100% Velocity for Tuesday.
The
market put a small dent in the weekend's forecast with a lower
Monday. We are undeterred and continue to hold our long
position. Our T-Index remains in the low +20's. The Fed meets next
week with most expecting another quarter point hike. There does not seem
to be much working room for increases without damage to the economy since
the demand for loans is exceeded by the amount of money available to loan,
reflected in the 10 year rates still below the highs set this past
March. Please
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Comments:
December 2, 2005
Long:
100% Velocity for Monday. We moved back
to 100% long Friday afternoon. As of this writing I expect the
market to continue higher unbothered until late in the week. Our
T-Index is at +21. Monday's closing targets for the S&P are 1256
and 1280, for the Nasdaq100 we have 1693 and 1743. Please
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Comments:
December 1, 2005
Long:
50% Velocity for Friday. We
reduced our exposure to 50% for Friday. The
strong up-move (+3.8% in our Velocity fund) made up for the last three days of pull back. This
sharp move left the probabilities near even, but when considering the day
of the week effect, the nod is for a small continuation of the rally on
Friday. T-Index held at +22. Please
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Comments:
November 30, 2005
Long,
100% Velocity for Thursday. Our signal
strengthened to fully long. T-Index improved to +22.
Market should be ready to resume its upside thrust. Please
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Comments:
November 29, 2005
50%
Long Velocity for Wednesday. The signal turned
unsteady near the close, toying between fully long and
"out". We split the difference and went 50% long.
T-Index holding at +19. Please
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Comments:
November 28, 2005
100%
Long Velocity for Tuesday. Buying on the dips
would make sense in this over-bought market. I do not believe the
dips will be very deep or of very long duration. Our signal is
strong. Targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1243 and 1267 for the NDX
we see 1669 and 1706. Please
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Comments:
November 25, 2005
100%
Long Velocity for Monday. Recent program
changes seem to be working well. We now show 29 positive trades with
only 11 losses since the later part of August. Keep your eye on the
T-Index for and weakness in the economy it closed at +18. We
should see larger daily moves this coming week as traders come back from
the Holiday. So far it looks like clear sailing ahead. Please
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Comments:
November 23, 2005
Signal
is 100% money market. We are however long
50% Velocity since we had a very positive signal till a few minutes prior
to the close. The markets will close early on Friday so the
markets are not expected to move very much either way. Our T-Index
gained to +21 and our intermediate term view is positive.
Probabilities are not reliable on the shortened day. Have a very
nice Thanksgiving and I will post early on Friday. Please
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Comments:
November 22, 2005
Long:
50% Velocity for Wednesday. Another good day
for the market, but our advanced warning light came on today and there is
a good chance we will have a pause on Friday. Our T-Index closed at
+19 and our intermediate term forecast does not see any major negatives
for the next few months clearing the way for a continuation of the rally
with only minor pull backs going into the new year. The key here is
watching the T-Index for signs of weakness. We do not want that
index to go below zero, which would indicate weakness in the
economy. Closing targets for Wednesday's S&P are 1253 and 1270,
for the NDX we have 1669 and 1717. Considering it is the day before
Thanksgiving the trading range will probably be much less. Please
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Comments:
November 21, 2005
Long:
50% Velocity for Tuesday. As we mentioned in
our previous forecast we are moving to a new forecasting format. We
are just trading the Nasdaq100 through the Rydex Velocity and Rydex
Venture funds. We will be in the market every day with the
exception of those days where the signal is unstable near the close.
The Thanksgiving week is usually a positive one for the market and it is
off to a good start this year also. Our T-index closed at +17. (
positive but weak). Closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1247
and 1263 for the NDX 1666 and 1712. Please
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Comments:
November 20, 2005
75%
Money market, Long: 12.5% Velocity, 12.5% Titan for Monday. There
will be a significant change in the forecasts starting on
Monday. After reviewing the previous years method I found that
almost all the program components have shown significant gains, greatly
exceeding those of the indices, yet the combined methodology remains
mired within a small trading range. Over the past two and a half
months we have achieved a greater than two to one correct to
incorrect ratio with only a few % gained. Starting Monday I
have introduced a new way to combine these excellent program segments, we
will trade the NDX exclusively, utilizing the Rydex Venture and Velocity
funds and we will trade on a daily basis. We will either be 100% or
50% in the market at all times unless we have an unstable signal near the
close. Being in the market near 100% of the time will provide more
data for the probability analysis which I am hopeful should continue to
reflect the better than 2 to 1 ratio of correct forecasts.
Closing targets for Monday's S&P are 1241 and 1256, for the NDX we
have 1660 and 1706. This recent work has prevented me from issuing a
new long-term forecast, but now that the work is complete I will be able
to post one later in the week. Please
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Comments:
November 17, 2005
75%
Money market, Long: 12.5% Velocity, 12.5% Titan for Friday.
Strong up day in the techs pulled everything else along. T-Index slid to
+16. At the current rate of decline we could be just a few weeks
from going negative. Flat signal with positive leanings. Please
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Comments:
November 16, 2005
75%
Money market, Short: 12.5% Venture, 12.5% Tempest for Thursday.
A flat signal and split probabilities. The SPX is weaker than the
S&P at this point, and I believe the S&P will pull the NDX lower
on Thursday. The emerging problem is now the 10 year notes which do
not want to go higher. Once again the bobbed under 4.5%. This
reflects in the T-Index bringing it lower, and now at only +17. I
will post a new long term report this weekend as the the weakening
condition of the T-Index is cause for alarm. Please
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Comments:
November 15, 2005
100%
money market for Wednesday. Tuesday's small
fall-off does not seem like enough to scare anyone, and the market should
go higher, at least in the morning. Our signal for Wednesday is flat
with the probabilities leaning to the up-side. One distressing note
is the T-Index which closed at +21 after being over +30 earlier in the
month. I really would like to see the T-Index go higher if we are to
have any faith in a prolonged recovery. Please
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Comments:
November 14, 2005
Short:
50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Tuesday. We have
a strong short signal for Tuesday. The market tried to go higher the
last two days and it looks like what doesn't go up, must come down, but we
shall see. Our program shows some downward pressure prior to
Thanksgiving. Please
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Comments:
November 13, 2005
100%
Money market for Monday. Although the trend is
up the markets will have great difficulty continuing without a pause at
this point. Monday should go lower. Once we have a down day or
two and if they are not severe we should be able to continue with the
uptrend. Please
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Comments:
November 10, 2005
25%
Long, 75% money market for Friday. After early
losses the market surged ahead on Thursday as weakness in oil prices and a
drop in the 10 year bond yield stimulated buy orders. Some selling
will probably come in near Friday's close. For Friday we have
a flat signal with positive probabilities. The
market is climbing despite being overbought from a technical point of
view. This type of condition usually does not last too long. Please
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Comments:
November 9, 2005
25%
Short, 75% Money market for Thursday. We split the
25% between the Tempest and Venture Rydex funds. Our signal is still
flat with some negative probabilities. Our longer term indication is
still for some weakness on the way to Thanksgiving then all clear.
Our indicator called for the drop starting the end of September, but after
the initial fall the S&P made up most of it and the Ndx actually went
higher. Past Thanksgiving our only concern is the strength of the
T-Index. If it stays above zero we should have a nice run for a few
months. Today's T-Index closed at +27. Please
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Comments:
November 8, 2005
100%
Money market for Wednesday. Once again our
signal is flat. This time the probabilities are mixed. I would
give the edge to the up-side. The drop in long term interest rates
squeezed our T-Index back down to +25. Toll Brothers reported
weaker demand for homes and closed lower by 14% causing other home
building related stocks to fall. Recently I noticed UPS's new
trucks. They are made special with flat "bolt on" panels in the
front, for easy "cheap" repairs, in cases of small
accidents. Please
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Comments:
November 7, 2005
100%
Money market for Tuesday. Another flat signal,
but this time the probabilities are mixed, leaning slightly to the
downside. The good news (longer term) is that the
T-Index crept higher closing at +31. Please
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Comments:
November 6, 2005
50%
long, 25% Titan, 25% Velocity for Monday. Our
signal is flat, but the probabilities are positive and we moved 50%
long. Possible test of recent highs here, but one more dip prior to
Thanksgiving still looks likely and should provide a good buying
opportunity. Closing targets on the S&P are 1214 and 1229 for
the Nasdaq 100 we have 1615 and 1637. Please
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Comments:
November 3, 2005
100%
Money market for Friday. It appears that the
market may have put in its low for the rest of the year. This does
not rule out giving up a significant portion of the recent gains in the
next two weeks, but going below the 1176 closing low of mid October now
looks unlikely. I will wait another week or two before following the
rally. Please
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Comments:
November 2, 2005
Short:
50% Tempest, 50% Venture for Thursday. Excellent
week so far for the markets should stall on Thursday. We have a
strong "short" signal and our probabilities show about a 2 to1
chance of going lower with the potential amplitudes of the move also 2 to
1 on the down side. The daily and weekly charts show the indexes at
a declining tops line so it should be an interesting day. The indexes and
the rates on the 10 year notes are both at 20 day highs, a negative
condition. Closing targets for the S&P are 1203 and 1222 for the
NDX we see 1565 and 1614. Please
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Comments:
November 1, 2005
100%
Money market for Wednesday. Once again we have
a weak short signal, but the probabilities are making us
cautious. The Fed raised rates with more to come. This is not good
news for the near term. Our T-Index closed the day at +25
near the low end of what we like to see in a strong economy. Please
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Comments:
October 31, 2005
100%
Money market. We have a weak "short"
signal for Tuesday, but the probabilities are mildly positive so I chose
to sit the day out. Monday's strong action came as a surprise to us
even though the charts looked prime for the up move. Although we had
run 21 gains with only 7 losses in the past two months prior to
Monday I never like taking a big hit. The action looked like some
insight into positive FED comments may have been leaked, but the weak close doesn't
support that theory and the FED most likely will continue raising rates
until the 10 year notes move a fair amount higher, squeezing the real-estate
market. Closing targets for Tuesday are 1202 and 1215 for the
S&P and 1562 and 1598 for the NDX. Nothing has changed in my
overall opinion, I still think we will have a number of strong down days
left before the market really takes off to the up-side. Please
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Comments:
October 28, 2005
Short:
50%Tempest, 50% Venture for Monday. Good news
on Friday about the strength of the economy may turn into bad news on
Monday as the Fed may be more inclined to pursue its rate raising
agenda. I don't think the market will run much higher prior to the
Fed meeting on the first of November. The S&P move on Friday was
significant, the NDX move, though solid, was little more than half the
S&P. We moved fully short aligned with our negative signal
and negative probabilities. Closing targets for Monday's S&P are
1188 and 1203, for the NDX we have 1532 and 1577. The T-Index closed
at +27. Please
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Comments:
October 27, 2005MZ
100%
Money market for Friday. Thursday we
witnessed the Nasdaq 100 cracking through its rising bottoms line. This
will enable the S&P to make its fourth attempt to break through its
"triple bottom" formation that started on October 12th.
Thursday's action eradicated all of the Bernanke bounce we saw on Monday in
the NDX and S&P. The NYSE is still holding some gains, but it is
already below its October 12th level. Another ~3% drop (which
I think is reasonable) will bring us to the April lows in the
S&P and the July lows in the Nasdaq 100. For Friday our signal
is flat and the probabilities are in balance. I expect the markets will
hold for a day as investors ponder the next direction and await the
indictments coming out of Washington, but any move of significance will
most likely have some follow-through on Monday in the same
direction. House prices are starting to
fall, which along with any further Stock market drop, could induce the Fed
to suggest a pause in tightening after the Nov 1 rate raise. This
could be the key to a turn around so watch for comments from the Fed
during November. Please
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Comments:
October 26, 2005
100%
Money market for Thursday. The probabilities
are still calling for a down day, but our signal went flat and we moved
fully into the money market for Thursday. I am looking for another
test of the recent lows soon, prior to any prolonged up-move. I
suspect that this will happen within a month. Closing targets for
Thursday for the S&P are 1184 and 1196. For the Nasdaq 100 we
see 1559 and 1599. Our T-Index did improve to +30. I
like seeing this index above 30 to give us a cushion. The higher
this number, the better the interest rate conditions for the
economy. Please
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Comments:
October 25, 2005
50%
Short: 25% Venture, 25% Tempest for Wednesday. After
giving up half of Monday's gain the markets recouped most of their earlier
loss (on Tuesday). We are holding our short positions. Closing S&P
targets are 1187 and 1203. For the NDX we have 1560 and 1601. Please
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Comments:
October 24, 2005
50%
Short for Tuesday. The nomination of Ben
Bernanke may have been leaked prior to the open, but either way the market
responded well to his nomination. I am pleased with Bernanke as he
has shown a clear understanding of inflation and deflation. His writings
can be found on the internet in various places and are easy to read.
The markets will have a tougher time gaining much more near term and I
expect a small pull back on Tuesday, maybe half of Monday's gain.
The T-Index gained a bit to close at +25. Closing targets for
Tuesday's S&P are 1191 to 1206. For the NDX we have 1571 and
1602. Please
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Comments:
October 21, 2005
100%
Money market for Monday. Good week for us as
we picked up over 2% in our accounts. I had strengthened some of the
weaker areas of the program and the results have been very positive.
The T-Index is still an important part of our program and that indicator
closed at +22. This is the weakest we have seen in a year,
but it is still positive and indicating a strong economy. The Nasdaq
is now much stronger than the Dow and S&P and if it continues could
turn the market around prior to our Thanksgiving date, but I don't believe
that much sooner. With Friday closing higher the prognosis for
Monday has improved and we may see some small carry-over gains.
Closing targets for the S&P 1173 and 1186, for the Nasdaq100 we see
1546 and 1577. Please
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Comments:
October 20, 2005
Short:
25% Venture, 25% Tempest for Friday. Our exit
at the morning fix gave us the tiniest of gains and saved us from the fall
that followed. The S&P now shows a tipple bottom. The Nasdaq 100
has a rising bottoms line at the three points and is much stronger than
the S&P. I expect we will see a test of the Nasdaq 100 closing
low of 1521 from October 12. This means the S&P bottom will not
hold and a crack in the S&P would bring it to 1160 or so, for first
support. This could happen by Monday. Hurricane Wilma and Ford
Motors are not helping and Wednesday's big up-move took the energy out of
any pent up demand for stocks. Closing targets for the S&P are
1169 and 1185, for the NDX we have 1522 and 1572. Please
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Comments:
October 19, 2005
87%
Money market, 13% long (Velocity) for Thursday. Large
up-move on Wednesday gave all the technical indications of a change in the
markets direction from South to North. We had the successful test of
the low, providing a bounce off of a double bottom. We had
a reversal of a large down day with an even bigger up-day. All
is rosy right? Well probably not. I am not ready to call this the
start of a long term rally. Our signal was flat and the final
upsurge of the day took most of the potential out of a gain for
Thursday. I will exit our small long position at the early
fix. Target's for Thursday's close on the S&P are 1190 and
1208, for the NDX we have 1548 and 1589. Please
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Comments:
October 18, 2005
75%
Money market, 25% long (Velocity) for Wednesday. We had a
weak "long" signal going into the close, but it turned into an
"out" at the bell. The probabilities are positive. However
the aftermarket is weak and the opening will most likely be
lower. A bad item is the weakening of the T-Index now at only
+26. If our T-Index goes negative we will have to change our
forecast for a recovery starting around Thanksgiving. Closing
targets for Wednesday's S&P are 1171 and 1187 for the Nasdaq100 we
have 1520 and 1561. Please
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Comments:
October 17, 2005
100%
Short for Tuesday. We now have a number of
indicators moving together giving individual "short"
signals. The probabilities also look bad with only a 23% chance of
going higher for the S&P the NDX is no better. We moved fully
short. Tuesday's closing targets for the S&P are 1179 and
1194. For the NDX we have 1514 and 1599. The T-Index is also
declining, now at +31. Remember, even though we have a very
negative signal for Tuesday there is still a chance that the markets
could go higher, so use caution in your trading. Please
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Comments:
October 14, 2005
100%
money market for Monday. We missed Friday's
rally but still had a gain for the week. We continue to play it safe
for Monday. I think there may be some early AM positive carry-over but
our signal is flat and the underpinnings of this market are not
strong. Closing targets for Monday in the S&P are 1180 and 1196,
in the NDX we have 1525 and 1557. Watch prices carefully over the
next few weeks. If the S&P falls below 1170 our next target is
1140. If we get there too soon there may be even more damage
coming. Please
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Comments:
October 13, 2005
100%
money market for Friday. After a positive
opening the markets took a deep dip to new recent lows then rallied with
some indices closing positive and some negative. We gained over 1/2 % and
moved into the money market. The S&P now shows losses in 8 of the last
9 days. Long term interest rates took a large jump pushing mortgage
rates higher. In my June 1st long-term forecast I suggested you watch Tol
Brothers TOL for signs that the real estate market was weakening.
That stock peaked mid July and has now dropped 36%. The stock market
is very over-sold from a technical point of view but there seems to be
more damage to be done over the next four to six weeks so be patient and
don't be lured into any rally attempts at this stage, since they most
likely will not last very long. Please
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Comments:
October 12, 2005
Long:
60% Titan, 40% Velocity for Thursday. Our
accounts escaped another bad day for the markets. After an early
rise the markets pulled back hard. As we suggested in yesterday's
update, the NDX was much weaker than the S&P. The probabilities
for Thursday look more promising. The S&P has now been down 7 of
the past 8 days. Interest rates on the 10 year notes are on the rise
again, now at 4.441%, the highest since April. Closing targets for
Thursday on the S&P are 1172 and 1186, for the NDX look for 1507 and
1543. I am looking for an up-day, but not a miracle, I think the
market will continue to go lower over time. In our last long-term
forecast posted August 31st I said we expected a 5% drop in the
S&P starting the end of September. We have already dropped over
4% so it looks like the final number will probably be greater. Please
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Comments:
October 11, 2005
100%
money market for Wednesday. The markets reversed an early
morning rise to close lower. We squeaked out a small
gain for Tuesday. Wednesday our signal is mixed with the NDX much
weaker than the S&P. Best to stay in the money market. Please
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Comments:
October 10, 2005
75%
money market, (exit 25% Venture at AM fix) for Tuesday. Our
signal changed at the close from an "out" with negative
probabilities to a "Long" with neutral probabilities. We
will once again exit our trade at the AM fix. Looks like we could
get an up-side bounce for a day or two about here based on the weekly
charts, but it should be short lived. Closing targets for the
S&P are 1175 and 1195, for the NDX we have 1526 and 1568. Our
T-Index closed at +35. Please
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Comments:
October 8, 2005
100%
money market for Monday. (exit a 50% velocity position at the morning
fix). We had technical difficulties moving
part of our position into the money market near the close on Friday and
will have to exit our position at the morning fix. Hopefully the
bomb scare in NYC will be defused. Monday (terrorism aside) should
be another quiet day due to Columbus day and the bonds on holiday.
The longer term influences are now negative and I expect to see lower
prices over the next five or six weeks. Please
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Comments:
October 6, 2005
100%
Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday. Wild
ride on Thursday, with the S&P retracing about two thirds of its
loss. The Nasdaq did not fare as well, recovering only about
40%. We have gone fully long. With our longer term influences
turning positive for a couple of days and our probabilities looking
strong. I feel strongly that the drop is not over and there will be
more hard times going into November. Friday and Monday may be a good
chance to lighten up. With the bonds closed on Monday and having an
early close on Friday I do not expect much market activity either of those
days, but a small gain should ensue. If we look for a bottom in
roughly five to six weeks I would select about 1170 on the S&P.
If we see the market going below that in under 4 weeks we might revise
that number to about 1140. The T-Index is holding up well, closing
at +37, telling us that this is not a long term drop. Please
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Comments:
October 5, 2005
100%
money market for Thursday. Not withstanding
that we were also in the wrong direction yesterday (luckily less than 50%
long), this drop was not unexpected and I believe only the beginning of a
larger spill. Words from my last few days:
Sept.
29, 2005...."We are
forecasting a move to intermediate term lows starting now and going into
mid to late November."
Oct.
2 2005.... "More
likely we have seen the gains and the market will head lower from here
until Thanksgiving."
Thursday
should see some stabilization and I expect some recovery Friday and / or
Monday. If you have not lightened up, the next few days could be a
good time to do so. Please
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Comments:
October 4, 2005
Long: 22% Titan, 22% Velocity, 56% money market for Wednesday. The
market reversed earlier gains on
Tuesday. Expect more choppiness over the next week or so. By late
October early November the down days should get nasty. The Nasdaq
100 could surprise us with a short spike higher. It has not gotten close
to the early August highs and may make one last attempt to do so.
That may take place in the Friday / Monday time frame. I doubt if
the attempt will get it very far. Closing targets for the S&P
are 1204 and 1222. For the NDX we have 1577 and 1629. Please
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Comments:
October 3, 2005
80%
money market, Short 20%: 10% Tempest, 10% Venture, for
Tuesday. Signal still flat but leaning
negative. Probabilities look more negative for the NDX. Heating oil
has increased significantly over last year. Natural gas costs are up
50%. We should see some negative impacts on the economy after the winter
heating bills become a reality. Expect the first significant bills
to hit in late October. The stock market may anticipate a strong
reaction and head lower. Please
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Comments:
October 2, 2005
100%
Money market for Monday. Again our signal is
flat, this time the probabilities are positive, but the amplitudes are
more negative. This is not a good sign as there is more to lose than
to gain. Overall the economy is still positive with the T-Index
closing the week at a +35. The intermediate term reading which
reflects multi- month changes in stock prices and interest rates has gone
negative and generally under these conditions the market does not make
significant gains and most often falls back. The most optimistic
case I can make would show some small market gains early in October with
the market weakening more significantly into early November. More
likely we have seen the gains and the market will head lower from here
until Thanksgiving. With the T-Index positive we can consider any drop
temporary. Please
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Comments:
September 29, 2005
100%
Money market for Friday. Our signal is
flat, but the probabilities are still positive.
It appears that this is a short term top. I
believe we may have a stronger opening, but there is potential for
weakening during the day and maybe a sell off by the close. We are
forecasting a move to intermediate term lows starting now and going into
mid to late November. Please
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Comments:
September 28, 2005
100%
Long: 50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday. We
now have a strong "long" signal along with good probabilities.
The wild card is always the price of oil, but we also have a positive
signal from our oil indicator. Closing targets for the S&P are
1212 and 1226. For the NDX we look to 1552 and 1598. Please
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Comments:
September 27, 2005
Sorry
missed forecast.. 50% Money market, 50% Titan for Wednesday. Probabilities
look good for the S&P and we are near the end of the month so we could
get some push from end of month buying. Other than that our signal is
flat. Please
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Comments:
September 26, 2005
Long:
50% Velocity, 50% Titan for Tuesday. Small
upside disappeared as oil prices turned around and went higher on
Monday. We are holding on to our long positions. Please
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Comments:
September 25, 2005
Long:
50% Velocity, 50% Titan for Monday. We held
our long position over the weekend. We should have a few days of
rejoicing then I believe we will get back to reality and start heading
lower. Please
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Comments:
September 22, 2005
Long:
50% Velocity, 50% Titan for Friday. We had a
small rally late in the day on Thursday. Friday should see a
continuation, and our longer term work shows positive influences until
Thursday. This may just hold the market in place as it now looks
like the market will not test the previous highs in the near future.
Oil, storms and Fed rate hikes should take their toll over the next two
months and I expect most of our transactions will be in the bear
funds. Please
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Comments:
September 21, 2005
25%
long: Velocity for Thursday. The market seems
to be setting up for a rally on Friday with the possibility of a start
late Thursday. The Friday rally should carry over into Monday, but I
see it burning our before the end of the week. After that we should
be headed lower through the week before Thanksgiving. At least that
is what our technical readings are showing. Oil prices are now going
up on the temporary conditions in the Gulf and should lower soon. The long
term interest rates gave Greenspan the razz and came down on Wednesday and
are still lower than they were on OCT 1, 2004. How about a
radical idea? Salary caps. Salary caps are used in
baseball, why not in corporate America? Public corporations are
responsible to the share holders, but almost always the bulk of the share
holders have no real say in how the companies spend their money. A radical
salary cap on all corporate officers and employees of say $1 Million
to $2 Million dollars a year, salary and perks (including pension
contributions and stock options). This could be done over a few years
time, cutting salaries by half each year until the minimum was reached.
This would save most corporations millions a year. Also, golden
parachutes should be outlawed. Each million dollars saved can hire
about 50 new employees at $10 per hour, be used for investment or paid out
in the form of dividends to the share holders. Public corporations
should not be the play toys of a few insiders, and those officers should
not have the opportunity of looting the corporation. If they want to
play, let them play with their own private companies. I suggest private
companies have no salary caps, after all, a private company is spending
its own money, not share holder money. Officers of public
corporations are not entrepreneurs. Their high salaries and perks
are not really creating jobs. This restructuring could put the cash where
it would be better utilized and raise the price of stocks. Do we
really need thousands of Grassos or Kozlowskis (NYSE / Tyco) picking
the bones of America? I welcome your comments. Please
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Comments:
September 20, 2005
100%
Long: 50% Velocity, 50% Titan for Wednesday. The
rate rise turned the market gain into a loss for Tuesday. I believe
it will have longer term negative implications. Our signal is positive for
Wednesday, though we may have a lower opening. Even with an up-day we should be very close to the end of the upside for
awhile. I hope we can get a few days positive run out of this. S&P
closing targets are 1213 and 1235; for the NDX we have 1562 and
1599. The Fed jerked the T-Index back down to +29. Please
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Comments:
September 19, 2005
75%
Money market 25% short for Tuesday. Oil jumped four
dollars and was mostly responsible for Monday's stock decline. We
took a small position in the Tempest fund for Tuesday. The Fed
meeting on Tuesday makes the day a toss up. Please
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Comments:
September 18, 2005
100%
money market for Monday. The Fed meets
on Tuesday and the market will adjust prior to the Fed meeting adding an
extra influence. Should be a choppy week. We stayed out,
although the signal is "short", so I expect a small adjustment
lower. The August 3rd highs in the S&P and NDX have not been
tested and unless the market falls rapidly apart the test should come this
week. Please
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Comments:
September 15, 2005
100%
money market for Friday. Our T-Index has
started climbing and is now at +39 a substantial improvement from the 23
it hit at the end of August. The 90 day bills are at the lows of
August. The 10 years, though substantially above the August
lows, are just below the average rate for August. It seems like the
market is adjusting for a rate increase but the T-Bills are expecting no
change. Anyway a rise in the T-Index is encouraging for the long
term. Please
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Comments:
September 14, 2005
Long:
75% Titan, 25% Velocity for Thursday. Good
thing we stayed in the money market on Wednesday. We expect a rally
as our signal is "long" and probabilities look good.
Headlines in the Financial Times Wednesday says Fed expected to raise
rates. That would account for the past two days
adjustment. Please
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Comments:
September 13, 2005
100%
money market for Wednesday. The markets pulled
back on Tuesday. I do not think the S&P will go much lower without
re-testing the highs we saw in August so I see a rally prior to the Fed
meeting, or one just after the meeting. I would think that one will
negate the other, I don't think it will be all or none. Wednesday's
probabilities are positive, but once again the amplitudes are stronger on
the down side. Please
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Comments:
September 12, 2005
100%
money market for Tuesday. Most likely we shall
see some lower prices on the Nasdaq and fairly flat in the S&P.
The projected amplitudes for both indexes lean to the negative. I
believe the markets will continue to make some headway into the Fed
Meeting. A rise in rates would probably mark the short term top,
while a hold might extend the rally for about a week. Either way I
fear we are near a correction. Our T-Index closed at +32. The rapid
slide in the T-Index seems to have abated for now. Closing targets
for Tuesday's S&P are 1230 and 1248 for the Ndx we have 1587 and
1635. Please
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Comments:
September 9, 2005
Long:
60% Velocity for Monday. Once again our signal is flat, but
the probabilities are favoring the Nasdaq 100 for Monday and we believe
the markets will rally going into the next Fed meeting. The T-Index is
+31. Please
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Comments:
September 8, 2005
Long:
60% Titan for Friday. Our signal is flat, but
the probabilities are favoring the S&P for Friday and we believe there
is one more up-thrust left in this market. The T-Index is creeping
higher now at +32. Please
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Comments:
September 7, 2005
100%
Money market for Thursday. We should have
another day of flattening out before any continuation of the
up-swing. On the 20th the Fed meets again and that will be the most
significant meeting to date since investors are pricing in no-change. If
interest rates are pushed higher there could be some blood spilled.... But
that is two week away and we could see a few percent up in that
time. T-Index climbed back over 30 and sits at +31. Please
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Comments:
September 6, 2005
Long
50%, for Wednesday. Looks like the rally will
take out the previous highs by months end. We are only 1% away on
the S&P so it could happen rather quickly. It is not only the US
10 year note that has dropped. Other countries are experiencing the
same conditions. Our T-Index closed the day at +28. The
dollar however, has lost ground recently and the stock market generally
follows the dollar's direction so i expect that this rally will need the
support of the dollar if it is to continue into the fall. Please
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Comments:
September 2, 2005
25%
short...missed posting.
Comments:
September 1, 2005
100%
Money market for Friday. With the problems
compounding in the South it looks more certain that the string of interest
rate hikes will be cut sooner than later. This is good news for the stock
market and should give us the energy to test the recent highs.
Interest rates fell in both the short and long term maturities Thursday
and the T-Index moved up a few points to +27. This is
also a boon for the real estate market in general and the builders of
smaller homes in particular which will continue to sell as the difference
in cost between rents and mortgages becomes smaller. A long term posting went up
yesterday! Please
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Comments:
August 31, 2005
Long:
50% Velocity for Thursday. Higher oil prices
are leading investors to believe that the economy will suffer which in
turn will cause the Fed to stop raising interest rates. The rate on
the 10 year notes dropped to 4.02 and the markets had a party. So
here is the equation; disaster + high oil prices = rally in stock
market. Strange isn't it? Especially since the lower rates
will add more fuel to the real estate market which may work in reverse to
cause Mr. Greenspan push short term rates even higher. Wha?.......
Looks like the could go a little higher on Thursday. The XOI,
which I mentioned as trailing the oil price, made up for it by jumping 3%
on Wednesday. Out T-Index closed lower again at +23. Closing estimates for the S&P on
Wednesday are 1214 and 1226, for the Ndx we have 1562 and 1596. New
long term posting went up today! Please
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Comments:
August 30, 2005
60%
Money market, 40% Velocity for Wednesday. What
started out as a strong up signal for Wednesday faded into the
close. The T-Index lost ground to +24 and seems determined to
show Mr. Greenspan who is in charge. The flare up in oil prices may
not have that much more to go as the XOI is not reflecting the surge, it
having topped on August 12th. Closing estimates for the S&P on
Wednesday are 1199 and 1218, for the Ndx we have 1543 and 1585. Please
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Comments:
August 29, 2005.
100%
Money market for Tuesday. The probabilities
are positive, but the potential amplitudes favor the down side.
Tuesdays also have a habit of reversing Monday's direction. I did a
lot of work on the program over the weekend and adjusted the longer term
forecast. It now looks like the challenge to the previous highs may
take place in September. I expect a choppy market in September but the
highs should be reached by the last few days in the month. Then we
should take cover till about Thanksgiving. Our T-Index now sits at +28,
and should be able to hold positive through the coming month. I will
have a new long term forecast posted later this week focusing on the
possibility that we may now be in a short period of expansion that may be
part of a longer term contraction or stagnation of the economy. Please
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Comments:
August 28, 2005.Caution the storm in New
Orleans has caused the price of oil to shoot past $70 per barrel. This
most likely will send the markets into a dive at the open. All eyes
will be on the storm and oil prices.
Long:
50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Monday.
Comments:
August 25, 2005. no comments missed posting.
Long:
50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday.
Comments:
August 24, 2005.
100%
Money market. The markets were doing very well
until an unfortunate sharp rise in the price of oil crushed the
rally. We have very mixed sentiment for Thursday and it is best to
stay out. The Vix index climbed to over 14 a level not seen since
May. This will help our indicators and provide some larger daily
moves to the market. Please
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Comments:
August 23, 2005.
Long:
50% Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday. I
continue to hold yesterday's viewpoint. T index however hit a new
low of +32. If we don't get a rally soon we may be out of reasons
to have one. Please
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Comments:
August 22, 2005.
Long
100% Velocity for Tuesday. I believe this pull
back is over and the market should launch another aggressive assault on
the recent highs. This should start Tuesday or Wednesday.
Other than a sharp rise in the price of oil or major negative event we
should test the old highs during the next few weeks. Closing targets
for Tuesday's S&P are 1217 and 1228. For the Nasdaq 100 we see
1566 and 1599. Monday's T-Index closed at +35.
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Comments:
August 21, 2005.
Short:
10% Tempest, 10% Venture, 80% money market for Monday. Oil
continues to have a very negative impact on the markets. Oil jumped
up over $2 a barrel on Friday. Closing targets for Monday are 1208
and 1226 for the S&P and 1548 and 1602 for the Ndx. I continue
to expect another run to reach the previous highs by early September and
then a sell off into mid November. Please
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Comments:
August 18, 2005.
100% money
market for Friday. Our T-Index closed the
day at +35. This is not a bad reading and should be reflecting an
economy that has the proper conditions to prosper. However oil
prices have significantly curbed the upside potential. The rally I
expected in August was side swiped by a rise in oil prices. The NDX
is now off 3% from the end of July. In my opinion there is still
time for a small run to the recent highs before some other interest rate
and pricing forces combine to cause another down draft of a more
significant nature. For Friday the NDX looks bad and the S&P is
just passing. Hopefully the rally will resume on Monday. A new
long term forecast was posted this week. Please
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Comments:
August 17, 2005.
Long:
60% Velocity, 40% Titan for Thursday. Big drop
in oil price moved indices forward on Wednesday. The Nyse fell and
the S&P made only a small gain. Thursday should see more
gains. The T-Index recovered some to +37. Oil should continue
lower if the falling price scare takes hold. A new
long term forecast was posted this week. Please
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Comments:
August 16, 2005.
Short
25%, 75% money market for Wednesday. It was
reported that Mr.Soros pulled out of energy stocks the end of June.
Could be that energy may top here (short term). Going back to
December the S&P tried three times to go above the 1220 (aprox.) level
before finally pushing higher in july/August. It would be good to
see a pause at this level. This is an
important psychological support level so we hope 1219 holds. Closing
targets for the S&P are 1203 and 1229, for the Nasdaq100 we have
1542 and 1594. The T-Index fell some more to 33. It seems that
long term rates are like the old phrase between a rock and a hard
place. If they go higher they slow down the housing boom, hurting
the economy. If they go lower they will push the T-Index negative,
reflecting a stagnating economy. The best would be slightly higher
long term rates and slightly lower short term rates. But that will
not happen until the Fed ceases to raise those little guys. A new
long term forecast was posted this week. Please
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Comments:
August 15, 2005.
100% money
market for Tuesday. New long term
forecast posted! Oil pulled back a bit, but ended the day
over $66. The market was glad to have a break in the rise and added a few
points. Our probability readings are slightly negative and we are staying
out. The T-Index which closed at +35 on Friday gained two points to +37.
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Comments:
August 12, 2005...(sorry late posting)
100% money
market for Monday. After a few bad days I
further trimmed the variables in our program making it more stable and
pulled into the money market for Monday. The probabilities are
barely positive but oil has become more of a wild card and there was not
enough of a direction to overcome even a faint hint of higher oil.
Our T-Index fell sharply to +35. It is still high enough to
indicate a strong economy but has fallen far and fast, indicating that a
negative number could be around the corner maybe waiting for us in the
fall. I posted new long term comments today, read them. Please
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Comments:
August 11, 2005
Long: 100%
Velocity for Friday. Very strong up-side
probabilities for Friday are balanced by the very strong up-side move in
oil prices and very weak last few minutes in the index futures
market. Dell missed the mark and was sliding in the
aftermarket. Looks like a bad opening is in store. We will
have a new long term forecast with reflections on the influence of oil and
interest rates on the market posted this weekend. Please
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Comments:
August 10, 2005
Short: 13%
Tempest, 12% Venture for Thursday. High oil
prices came up against our up- sided probabilities and won out on
Wednesday after a strong morning. I don't like what I am seeing in
the market at this point. The Nasdaq is losing its up-side
energy. I was expecting a stronger market going in to Labor
day, now we have less than three weeks left. Oil is making new
highs, and the real estate market looks ready to roll over. Not very
tempting. Please
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Comments:
August 9, 2005
Long: 75%
Velocity for Wednesday. I have an
"out" signal for Wednesday, but with good upside probabilities
so I stayed long and reduced our exposure to 75%. The Fed did
as expected and hopefully they will be applauded with a positive day on
Wednesday. Our targets for the S&P are 1225 and 1236, for the
Ndx I have 1588 and 1616. Our T-Index is at +43 sitting it that area
for the last two and a half weeks. Please
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Comments:
August 8, 2005
Long: 100%
Velocity for Tuesday. Monday's market
continued the downward path after oil pushed hard to the upside.
Still looking for the indexes to rally but do not want to see the S&P
slide much further. Signal is holding positive. Please
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Comments:
August 5, 2005
Long: 100%
Velocity for Monday. The small pull back
Friday did not tell the whole story. Many good quality stocks got a
sharp wack during the day that is probably a wake-up call for some heavier
damage to come around labor day. I believe this pull back is just
about over. We held our position in the Rydex Velocity fund. Our
accounts showed a better than one percent gain for the week, with declines
for the indexes. Closing targets for Monday's S&P are 1213 and
1234. For the NDX we have 1587 and 1628. Please
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Comments:
August 4, 2005
Long: 100%
Velocity for Friday. We were glad to be in the
money market on Thursday. As I said in yesterday's comments when a
signal changes on the close we can't trust it. We have a "long"
signal for Friday and it was stable. The upside probabilities were
the same for the S&P and NDX but the downside risk has been less for
the NDX under similar conditions so we went with the velocity fund.
Closing targets for the S%P are 1220 and 1243 for the NDX we have 1597 and
1635. Please
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Comments:
August 3, 2005
100% money
market for Thursday. We have a
"Long" signal for Thursday with strong upside probabilities for
the Ndx. Despite this, the signal arrived on the close making it
suspect. Earlier probabilities were slightly negative and we had
moved into the money market. This type of activity makes my job more
difficult and I am unable to provide a clean call for Thursday. Our
T-Index closed at +42, same as yesterday. Expect a fairly smooth
uptrend into Labor Day, no time to short. Please
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Comments:
August 2, 2005
Long:
37% Titan, 63% Velocity for Wednesday. Good up
day on Tuesday. Our signal continues long and the probabilities look
good for another gain. The futures market closed at a smaller than
normal premium indicating that there may be some selling in the
morning. The Russell 2000 remained in a tight upward trending
pattern calling for a higher market. Overall we look good until
Labor Day.
Interesting
article in Tuesday's Financial Times about Tokyo's real estate starting to
rebound for the first time in 13 years. From top to bottom
residential land dropped 33% over a 15 year span. In the six biggest
cities residential land prices dropped 65%, while commercial land prices
dropped 87%. Yes real estate can sometimes be a bad
investment. When the real estate companies could not
repay debts the banks took the losses. Money which usually moves
from real estate to the stock market and back again did not support the
market under this beating. Our current atmosphere of interest only
loans on homes that have doubled in value over the past 5 years is an
example of what can lead to this type of disaster. Mortgage rates
follow the 10 year note and rate on the note has gone up .43% in the last
five weeks. Higher rates mean fewer buyers qualify for loans.
Keep your eye on the 10 year notes. Please
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Comments:
August 1, 2005
Long:
37% Titan, 63% Velocity for Tuesday. A small
up-tick for Monday did not leave us with a lot of confidence for
Tuesday. The signal is strong, but the probabilities are only
slightly positive. Closing targets for the S&P 1230 and 1241 for
the Ndx 1592 and 1635. Please
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Comments:
July 31, 2005
Long:
37% Titan, 63% Velocity for Monday. I am
looking for the rally to find new legs this week. We stay fully long
and shifted the bulk of our investment to the NDX with the Velocity
fund. Closing targets for the S&P are 1221 and 1242, for the Ndx
we have 1583 and 1623. Please
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Comments:
July 28, 2005
Long:
63% Titan, 37% Velocity for Friday. So far
this week the markets are ahead less than 1% with gains the last three
days in a row. I expect another small gain for Friday. A
brown-out on the east coast caused the downtime at Rydex on
Wednesday. Closing Friday targets for the S&P are 1237 and 1253
for the Ndx we have 1598 and 1634. I am still very positive for
August. This small creeping up-move is providing gains without the
burn-out. Please
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Comments:
July 27, 2005
Flat to lower
for Thursday. Rydex suffered some kind of an
outage Wednesday and could not be reached by web or by phone. As a result
we are holding yesterday's mixed positions. This is an exceptionally
rare occurrence and we have not experienced it before in our over 4 years
of trading with the firm. Our signal remains a weak
"short". T-Index back up to +44. Please
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Comments:
July 26, 2005
Mixed: Long
25%, Velocity / Short 12.5%, Tempest for Wednesday. Another
weak sell signal, however the probabilities remain mixed, but reversed
from Tuesday. We took our position in line with the
probabilities. Looks like the market is preparing for another
up-side run later in the week and is digesting recent gains. Closing
targets for Wednesday's S&P are 1225 and 1242. For the NDX look
to 1577 and 1622. The T-Index is now down to +40, still in a healthy
range, but falling. Please
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Comments:
July 25, 2005
Mixed, Long:
12.5% Titan, Short: 25% Venture for Tuesday. Odd
probabilities for Tuesday. We have a weak "Short" signal
with mixed probabilities. The S&P is favored to the up side and
Nasdaq100 to the downside. I expected the pause in the rally to be
over by Monday, but it looks like there will be a negative carryover into
Tuesday, especially in the Nasdaq. Closing targets for the
S&P are 1221 and 1239, for the Ndx we have 1564 and 1604. Please
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Comments:
July 22, 2005
75% money
market, Long: 25% Titan for Monday. The indices
managed to have net gains for the week. There should be more to come
through August, but expect the daily moves to be small in line with the
reduced volatility. Out T-Index hit a multi month low on Friday
closing at +44. Although we got a weak Long signal for Monday the
probabilities favor the down side, especially in the Nasdaq 100.
Closing targets for the S&P are 1223 and 1241, for the NDX we have
1573 an 1615. We will use any weakness in the market to go long
undervalued securities on Monday. Please
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Comments:
July 21, 2005
75% money
market, Short: 25% Venture for Friday. London
survives more bombs, China lets their currency float and after the bell
Google missed some expectations and dropped sharply. This may take a
bit to digest, but I
expect this pause to have mild downside and short duration. The
rally should continue by Tuesday. Closing targets for Friday are
1215 and 1237 for the S&P and 1580 and 1617 for the Nasdaq 100.
The T-Index has held in a tight range for a month, closed at +49.
Friday and Monday should provide good opportunity to pick up solid
securities that may have a few days of weakness. Please
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Comments:
July 20, 2005
75% money
market, Long: 12.5% Velocity, 12.5% Titan for Thursday. After
a few hours of cooling off, the market charged ahead full steam on
Wednesday. Full steam under these very low volatility readings isn't
that much. The Vix index dipped below 10 intraday. The market
was about 50% more volatile last year at this time so there is less money
to be made on a daily basis. It looks like the market is somewhat
stronger than I expected here and we may not get much in the way of a pull
back. We took a small long position for Thursday matching our
weak "long" signal. Closing targets for the S&P
Thursday are 1225 and 1247. For the Nasdaq100 we have 1586 and
1635. The market is now up 9 of the past 10 days. Please
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Comments:
July 19, 2005
100% Money
market for Wednesday. Tuesday pushed the
market to new highs. Wednesday will probably cool off. Our
signal is "out" and although the probabilities lean positive the
potential amplitudes are more negative. I am expecting weakness
Wednesday and Thursday with some upside on Friday, but it is better to
play it day by day. T-Index slipped a little to +47. Closing
targets for Wednesday's S&P are 1221 and 1236 and for the Nasdaq 100
we see 1569 and 1604. Glad to say the two stocks we picked up yesterday on
pullbacks, (see below) both gained over 3%. We will be looking for a
few more good buys the next few days. Please
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Comments:
July 18, 2005
Long: 50%
Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday. I am looking
for a small up-day for Tuesday before some more down later in the
week. Closing targets for Tuesday for the S&P are 1214 and 1232.
For the Nasdaq 100 we have 1555 and 1596. Interest rates for the 90
day t-bills are more than twice what they were last year at this time, but
the 10 year notes are still lower, but not by a lot. Our T-Index is
a healthy +52 and is holding up, indicating that the recent
increase in rates is being properly absorbed by the economy and not a
threat at this time. We used today's weakness to continue
purchase of stocks on our undervalued list. Today we added ELNK @ $8.97
and MKSI @18.44. Please
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Comments:
July 15, 2005
100% Money
market for Monday. The volatility index fell
dramatically on Friday. It has lost about 80% of its value since
touching over 50 in July of 2002. This easing of anxiety is making
the market harder to read since we depend in part on investor angst. The
market now has a string of 7days higher. I don't think we shall see
any headway this coming week, but neither do I see much of a
decline. There should be internal rotation in the market which could
allow investors to pick up some good securities that may have had a
strong run up these past two weeks if they pull back a few percent. I
believe the rally has much more to go after this pause. The
shrinking of the volatility index may confine the market well within the
target range for Monday. For the S&P I have 1219 and 1237 for
the Nasdaq 100 I have 1555 and 1607. Please
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Comments:
July 14, 2005
Short: 25%
Tempest, 75% money market for Friday. The
markets closed within a few points of the projected resistance cap we
called on Monday 6/11. After six up days a pause would be likely. We
have a small negative signal and the the S&P looks weaker than the Ndx
and we moved partially short there. The T-Index is holding up well
at +52. Expect a week or so of more down than up. Please
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Comments:
July 13, 2005
Long: 25%
Velocity, 75% money market for Thursday. The
indexes seem to have run out of steam here, but the rotation in the
general market may have let off enough steam in the past two days to get a
second wind. We pulled back to 25% exposure. I see choppy
going for the next week and a half, then a resumption of the uptrend
through August. Please
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Comments:
July 12, 2005
Long: 50%
Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday. I expect
the rally to end on Wednesday. The S&P hit the1225 level we
called for yesterday and backed off and most likely will try again
Wednesday. The Nasdaq100 looks like it will go higher. We are
holding firm. A worrisome aspect is the further drop in the VIX
to 10.95. I am much less trusting in the forecasts at this and lower
VIX levels. Closing targets for the S&P are 1216 and 1231 for
the NDX we have 1538 and 1579. Please
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Comments:
July 11, 2005
Long: 50%
Titan, 50% Velocity for Tuesday. We are fully
long for Tuesday. The S&P should run into resistance at the
March highs of about 1225 and we may see that tomorrow. The
Nasdaq100 looks like it will hit resistance at the June highs of
1569. Our T-index held firm at + 52. Target closes for the
S&P for Tuesday: 1210 and 1230 for the Nasdaq 100 look to 1532 and
1570. Please
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Comments:
July 8, 2005
Long 50%
Titan, 25% Velocity, 25% money market. Oops I
thought I posted this over the weekend. Closing targets for
Monday's S&P are 1203 and 1226. For the Nasdaq100 we have
1512 and 1556. With the lower volatilities we continue to see, the
range will most likely be smaller. T-Index climbed a bit to
+52. Please
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Comments:
July 7, 2005
Long: 50%
Titan, 50% Velocity for Friday. Good to see
that the terrorist's terrible London bombings could not intimidate the
market. We send our support to the good people in the UK. Our
signal remains positive though we may see a pull back going into the
weekend's uncertainty. Five of our six individual stock positions
are showing good gains. We added three more smaller positions today
using a different set of criteria, but still depending upon strong balance
sheets as the basis, prior to searching out under valued securities.
These securities are CAMP @ 7.42, BJ @ 30.94 and SRZ @ 56.11. All
the securities we select appear to be very sound financially and
undervalued by the criteria that we select. Our method is to hold
these securities until they either appreciate to the point that they are
no longer under valued relative to other securities or the fundamentals
change, changing their expected value. All of last weeks selections
have appreciated and can be found on our long-term forecast
page. Please
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Comments:
July 6, 2005
Long: 50%
Titan, 50% Velocity for Thursday. New highs in
oil pushed the market lower. Only bright spot for us was our
individual stocks, posted with our long term forecast. These stocks
we believe to be under valued showed good gains today. Closing
targets for the S&P are 1184 and 1207. For the Nasdaq 100 we
have 1478 and 1520. Please
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Comments:
July 5, 2005
Long: 50%
Titan, 50% Velocity for Wednesday. Our
probabilities are 3 to 1 in favor of a continuation to the up side for
Wednesday and we are fully long. I posted
a new long term forecast on Sunday and briefly spoke of
individual stocks as doing better than picking market direction under low
volatility conditions. The four stocks we mentioned and took a position in
last week are all higher. We took two additional positions on
Tuesday TPR @ $6.31 and TWi @ $14. Closing targets for the S&P
are 1200 and 1217. for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1493 and 1522. Please
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Comments:
July 1, 2005
Short:
25% Tempest, 12.5% Venture for Tuesday. Tuesday
could be a near term bottom. I expect the market to go back up to
test the1213 level then hopefully the 1225 level on the S&P
later in the month. New long term forecast posted Sunday 7/3/05. Have a happy and safe 4th. Please
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earlier comments made
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