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Year 2000 Commentaries:

Comments: Dec. 29, 2000

We are calling for an OUT signal for the first trading day of the year Tuesday. Our indicators give a weak "sell" signal and a look at the probabilities indicates that there is not enough reason to take the risk. The weak "sell" signal came at the close, our real money account is actually aimed up, this kind of thing happens about 5% of the time see risk.  None of our indicators showed a clear direction today.   We could see increased volatility on Tuesday as trading get back to normal. Happy New Year.

Comments: Dec. 28, 2000

We have an OUT signal for Friday.  We end this year on a high note. We correctly forecast the market the last four days in a row. Our real money account has gained 25% since we began the end of August, adding 5% since we first started posting our forecasts the end of October. This compares to large drops in the major indexes. Our real money account even surpassed the results in Charts and Data which we did not expect.

Comments: Dec. 27, 2000

Our BUY signals continue for Thursday along with the slow but steady string of four up days in the S&P.  The up/down probabilities have now move to almost 2 to 1 favoring the upside with the average size of the up days still about 2 to 1 over the decliners.  This is a very healthy sign.  I consider it a stealth up move, gaining 5% in the last 4 days with nobody looking.  A nice holiday present.

Comments: Dec. 26, 2000

Another BUY signal for Wednesday.  Like the previous signal the up/down probabilities are only slightly positive, but the size of the up potential is still over twice the down-side risk.  The S&P futures index followed through gaining about 4 points over fair value after the close.  I expect to see more upside tomorrow.

Comments: Dec.22, 2000

BUY signal extends to Tuesday.  Both the NASD100 and the S&P500 fully recovered from Wednesday's large drop.  Our probabilities show that there is about an equal chance of it going up or down on Tuesday, but the weight is strongly on the buy side, with the size of the up side reward about 2.5 x the down side risk. I expect to see more positive action in this year's beaten down issues.  Happy holidays to all. Talk to you Tuesday.

Comments: Dec.21, 2000

BUY for Friday.  We believe we did see the bottom, at least for a while, on Thursday morning.  With the futures market closing below fair value there may be a partial attempt to go lower early Friday morning.  I do not expect to see an explosive day tomorrow, but believe it will be up.  Money is flowing out of the safe havens and tax selling is mostly over.  Also the last trading day before Christmas usually has a positive emotional tone.

Comments: Dec.20, 2000

We are OUT for Thursday.  Yesterday was a rough day for us. Bringing the S&P back to values last seen in mid October 1999. On the other hand our own accounts touched upon inter-day highs Monday morning before dropping back down.  I would like to remind the new investors reading this that we are long term investors, we just do it one day at a time.  We do not have probabilities listed for tomorrow because we did not have enough data points to get a reading.  I expect that we may see a short term bottom put in some time tomorrow. 

Comments: Dec.19, 2000

Strong BUY signal for Wednesday.  With the S&P500 reaching a new 14 month low, the S&P Futures market closing about 6 points below their fair market value and a few days of tax selling left it looks very scary out there. However we find the probabilities strongly in our favor for a powerful up day.  So our money is aimed up. We will have to climb out of that 6 point hole and may find the early going rough but we say BUY.  

Comments: Dec.18, 2000

BUY signal for Tuesday.  We have a decent Buy signal for tomorrow.  The probabilities show little historic risk on the down side.  I don't expect the Fed meeting tomorrow to produce an interest rate cut, just more talk about the later possibility of one.  

Comments: Dec.15, 2000

We have an OUT signal for Monday.  The probabilities are evenly split at 50/50.  The market has come very close to a buy signal, but we are not ready to call it yet. Any news over the weekend could push it either way from this level.  Although we are a few $ short of a new high in our "white" account,  the difference between our account and the S&P 500 are at the best levels to date. (see charts and data)

Comments: Dec.14, 2000

We have an OUT signal for tomorrow, Friday.  Most likely the market will continue down as shown by our probabilities, but the risk has increased so we got out.  The emotions have flattened out and some positive money flow signs are in the works for tomorrow.  If the market does manage to go up it could be a solid up move, but neither an up or down position is worth the risk. We had a good week. 

Comments: Dec.13, 2000

We expect more down side action tomorrow, SELL for Thursday.  Our probabilities have firmed up a little from yesterday, though still negative, indicating that the downside action might not be too severe. 

Comments: Dec.12, 2000

We have a SELL signal for Wednesday.  Our signal danced between a very weak "buy", and a full size "sell" signal, squeaking into a "sell" on the close.  As you can see from the probabilities, these conditions have led the market lower twice as often as higher with almost twice the downside $ risk. However the futures traders don't agree with us, they came into the market after the close driving the S&P500 futures up about 7 1/2 points over fair value.  I would expect they are positioning themselves for a pro Bush high court ruling.  I believe any "Bush" rally we see tomorrow will be shallow with a good chance of a strong down day.

Comments: Dec.11, 2000

We are OUT for Tuesday.  Reminder to check our Forecast page again for the new probability addition.  We do not have a clear market direction. Up more often than not, but greater risk when it does go down, so we stay out.

Comments: Dec.8, 2000

We are OUT for Monday.  Check out our Forecast page again. We added a probability section that gives an indication of the probability of the next day's direction, as well as expected average amount of the move.  There is also a link to an explanation on the forecast page.  This added feature provides valuable insight as to what the stock market has done in the past under similar conditions of investor emotion and money flow.  We are out for Monday, but the market has shown a tendency to lean towards the down side under these conditions. 

Comments: Dec. 7, 2000

More of the same.  We got another weak BUY signal for Friday.  Our real money account is still in the market, but we have reduced our position for Friday.  Not much enthusiasm either way for today.

Comments: Dec. 6, 2000

We saved ourselves 1.8% today by being in the money market.  Then we got back in at the close with a BUY signal for Thursday.  It isn't our strongest BUY, but we think today cleared the way for more upside, at least one day's worth.

Comments: Dec. 5, 2000

OUT signal for Wednesday.  What a day, the NASD100 was up about 11.7%.  The S&P500 up 3.9%.  We have a positive bias for tomorrow, but not strong enough to get a "Buy" signal.  I would expect to see a lower opening; we saw defensive positions taken near and at the close. 

Comments: Dec. 4, 2000

The weak Buy signal stays on for Tuesday.  Small amount of enthusiasm over Bush's more certain position conflicting with the beginnings of a recession, as the short term interest rates are higher than the long term rates.  The good news is that this time long term rates are 1/2 point below their average of the last 8 years, and short term rates haven't been pushed to the point of economic destruction as we have seen in past recessions.

Comments: Dec. 1, 2000

We have  a weak BUY signal for Monday.  The BUY signal pushed through in the last few moments of trading.  The early rally fizzled, fell through the zero mark then made a feeble recovery to close positive on the day.  The S&P has gained back about 1/3 of the drop to its lowest point Thursday. The Nasdaq regained about 2/3. 

Comments: Nov. 30, 2000

Buy signal for Friday.  Took a 2% hit on our first day with the upgraded system.  Both old and new upgraded system give a BUY for tomorrow. Looks like money was going into bonds and out of everything else today.  The futures closed a bit higher than fair value, a relief after yesterday's negative close. Some money should come in from pension funds Friday, and that could be a help.

Comments: Nov. 29, 2000

Buy Signal for Thursday.  We have upgraded our program and implemented the upgrade today.  (The old program would have given us another OUT signal for tomorrow.) Based upon the close of the futures markets, we may be in for a rough day tomorrow as the futures closed well below the cash market indicating a very strong down opening.  Our updated program just added some more recent data and now is in the market about 50% of the time rather than 40%. The write ups will soon reflect this minor change.  Nothing changed with regard to methodology.  

Comments: Nov. 28, 2000

Even another OUT signal for Wednesday. We also have a definite bias on the down side.  Later in the day the money was moving to safer locations and the S&P headed lower. 

Comments: Nov. 27, 2000

Another OUT signal for Tuesday. We closed out our real money accounts at the close today and went back into the money market.  The Bias is on the upside for tomorrow.

Comments: Nov. 24

OUT Signal for Monday.  We finally got a little and late Thanksgiving rally.  Another day where the signal changed from BUY to OUT in the last few minutes. Our real money account is still in and aimed up.   

Comments: Nov. 22

OUT for Friday. Out signal closed as an out but the signal changed from a buy in the last few seconds of  the trading day too late for our real money account where we held on to the S&P index that we bought yesterday.  The S&P futures index sold off even more in the 15 minutes after the market closed which indicates a negative outlook. The market started dropping last night after the Florida decision. We can't predict what happens after the close.

Comments: Nov. 21

BUY for Wednesday. Not the greatest buy signal but with Thanksgiving we should see reduced volume and some small buying.  The last three "out" days saved us 1.8% on the S&P and 4.7% on the NASDAQ100. Our "OUT" days seem to cancel themselves out with a slightly positive direction over the long term.

Comments: Nov. 20

We have an OUT signal Tuesday.  Bias for Tuesday is slightly positive.  Historically we should see some upside activity starting Tuesday or Wednesday prior to Thanksgiving. 

Comments: Nov. 17

We have an OUT signal Monday.  Historically we should see some upside activity starting Tuesday or Wednesday prior to Thanksgiving. The market looks well balanced at this level. Bias Monday is very slightly negative.  Stay in the money market for the weekend and pick up extra interest.