Year 2000 Commentaries:
Comments: Dec. 29, 2000
We are calling for an OUT signal for the
first trading day of the year Tuesday. Our indicators give a weak
"sell" signal and a look at the probabilities indicates that
there is not enough reason to take the risk. The weak "sell"
signal came at the close, our real money account is actually aimed up,
this kind of thing happens about 5% of the time see risk.
None of our indicators showed a clear direction today. We
could see increased volatility on Tuesday as trading get back to normal.
Happy New Year.
Comments: Dec. 28, 2000
We have an OUT signal for Friday. We
end this year on a high note. We correctly forecast the market the last
four days in a row. Our real money account has gained 25% since we began
the end of August, adding 5% since we first started posting our forecasts
the end of October. This compares to large drops in the major indexes. Our
real money account even surpassed the results in Charts
and Data which we did not expect.
Comments: Dec. 27, 2000
Our BUY signals continue for Thursday along
with the slow but steady string of four up days in the S&P. The
up/down probabilities have now move to almost 2 to 1 favoring the upside
with the average size of the up days still about 2 to 1 over the
decliners. This is a very healthy sign. I consider it a
stealth up move, gaining 5% in the last 4 days with nobody looking.
A nice holiday present.
Comments: Dec. 26, 2000
Another BUY signal for Wednesday.
Like the previous signal the up/down probabilities are only slightly
positive, but the size of the up potential is still over twice the
down-side risk. The S&P futures index followed through gaining
about 4 points over fair value after the close. I expect to see more
upside tomorrow.
Comments: Dec.22, 2000
BUY signal extends to Tuesday. Both
the NASD100 and the S&P500 fully recovered from Wednesday's large
drop. Our probabilities show that there is about an equal chance of
it going up or down on Tuesday, but the weight is strongly on the buy
side, with the size of the up side reward about 2.5 x the down side risk.
I expect to see more positive action in this year's beaten down issues.
Happy holidays to all. Talk to you Tuesday.
Comments: Dec.21, 2000
BUY for Friday. We believe we did see
the bottom, at least for a while, on Thursday morning. With the
futures market closing below fair value there may be a partial attempt to
go lower early Friday morning. I do not expect to see an explosive
day tomorrow, but believe it will be up. Money is flowing out of the
safe havens and tax selling is mostly over. Also the last trading
day before Christmas usually has a positive emotional tone.
Comments: Dec.20, 2000
We are OUT for Thursday. Yesterday
was a rough day for us. Bringing the S&P back to values last seen in
mid October 1999. On the other hand our own accounts touched upon
inter-day highs Monday morning before dropping back down. I would
like to remind the new investors reading this that we are long term
investors, we just do it one day at a time. We do not have
probabilities listed for tomorrow because we did not have enough data
points to get a reading. I expect that we may see a short term
bottom put in some time tomorrow.
Comments: Dec.19, 2000
Strong BUY signal for Wednesday. With
the S&P500 reaching a new 14 month low, the S&P Futures market
closing about 6 points below their fair market value and a few days of tax
selling left it looks very scary out there. However we find the probabilities
strongly in our favor for a powerful up day. So our money is aimed
up. We will have to climb out of that 6 point hole and may find the early
going rough but we say BUY.
Comments: Dec.18, 2000
BUY signal for Tuesday. We have a
decent Buy signal for tomorrow. The probabilities show little
historic risk on the down side. I don't expect the Fed meeting
tomorrow to produce an interest rate cut, just more talk about the later
possibility of one.
Comments: Dec.15, 2000
We have an OUT signal for Monday. The
probabilities are evenly split at 50/50. The market has come very
close to a buy signal, but we are not ready to call it yet. Any news over
the weekend could push it either way from this level. Although we
are a few $ short of a new high in our "white" account,
the difference between our account and the S&P 500 are at the best
levels to date. (see charts and data)
Comments: Dec.14, 2000
We have an OUT signal for tomorrow, Friday.
Most likely the market will continue down as shown by our probabilities,
but the risk has increased so we got out. The emotions have
flattened out and some positive money flow signs are in the works for
tomorrow. If the market does manage to go up it could be a solid up
move, but neither an up or down position is worth the risk. We had a good
week.
Comments: Dec.13, 2000
We expect more down side action tomorrow,
SELL for Thursday. Our probabilities have firmed up a little from
yesterday, though still negative, indicating that the downside action
might not be too severe.
Comments: Dec.12, 2000
We have a SELL signal for Wednesday.
Our signal danced between a very weak "buy", and a full size
"sell" signal, squeaking into a "sell" on the close.
As you can see from the probabilities,
these conditions have led the market lower twice as often as higher with
almost twice the downside $ risk. However the futures traders don't agree
with us, they came into the market after the close driving the S&P500
futures up about 7 1/2 points over fair value. I would expect they
are positioning themselves for a pro Bush high court ruling. I
believe any "Bush" rally we see tomorrow will be shallow with a
good chance of a strong down day.
Comments: Dec.11, 2000
We are OUT for Tuesday. Reminder to
check our Forecast page
again for the new probability addition. We do not have a clear
market direction. Up more often than not, but greater risk when it does go
down, so we stay out.
Comments: Dec.8, 2000
We are OUT for Monday. Check out our Forecast
page again. We added a probability section that gives an indication of the
probability of the next day's direction, as well as expected average
amount of the move. There is also a link to an explanation
on the forecast page. This added feature provides valuable insight
as to what the stock market has done in the past under similar conditions
of investor emotion and money flow. We are out for Monday, but the
market has shown a tendency to lean towards the down side under these
conditions.
Comments: Dec. 7, 2000
More of the same. We got another weak
BUY signal for Friday. Our real money account is still in the
market, but we have reduced our position for Friday. Not much
enthusiasm either way for today.
Comments: Dec. 6, 2000
We saved ourselves 1.8% today by being in
the money market. Then we got back in at the close with a BUY signal
for Thursday. It isn't our strongest BUY, but we think today cleared
the way for more upside, at least one day's worth.
Comments: Dec. 5, 2000
OUT signal for Wednesday. What a day,
the NASD100 was up about 11.7%. The S&P500 up 3.9%. We
have a positive bias for tomorrow, but not strong enough to get a
"Buy" signal. I would expect to see a lower opening; we
saw defensive positions taken near and at the close.
Comments: Dec. 4, 2000
The weak Buy signal stays on for Tuesday.
Small amount of enthusiasm over Bush's more certain position conflicting
with the beginnings of a recession, as the short term interest rates are
higher than the long term rates. The good news is that this time
long term rates are 1/2 point below their average of the last 8 years, and
short term rates haven't been pushed to the point of economic destruction
as we have seen in past recessions.
Comments: Dec. 1, 2000
We have a weak BUY signal for Monday.
The BUY signal pushed through in the last few moments of trading.
The early rally fizzled, fell through the zero mark then made a feeble
recovery to close positive on the day. The S&P has gained back
about 1/3 of the drop to its lowest point Thursday. The Nasdaq regained
about 2/3.
Comments: Nov. 30, 2000
Buy signal for Friday. Took a 2% hit
on our first day with the upgraded system. Both old and new upgraded
system give a BUY for tomorrow. Looks like money was going into bonds and
out of everything else today. The futures closed a bit higher than
fair value, a relief after yesterday's negative close. Some money should
come in from pension funds Friday, and that could be a help.
Comments: Nov. 29, 2000
Buy Signal for Thursday. We have
upgraded our program and implemented the upgrade
today. (The old program would have given us another OUT signal for
tomorrow.) Based upon the close of the futures markets, we may be in for a
rough day tomorrow as the futures closed well below the cash market
indicating a very strong down opening. Our updated program just
added some more recent data and now is in the market about 50% of the time
rather than 40%. The write ups will soon reflect this minor change.
Nothing changed with regard to methodology.
Comments: Nov. 28, 2000
Even another OUT signal for Wednesday. We also have a
definite bias on the down side. Later in the day the money was
moving to safer locations and the S&P headed lower.
Comments: Nov. 27, 2000
Another OUT signal for Tuesday. We closed out our real
money accounts at the close today and went back into the money market.
The Bias is on the upside for tomorrow.
Comments: Nov. 24
OUT Signal for Monday. We finally got a little and
late Thanksgiving rally. Another day where the signal changed from
BUY to OUT in the last few minutes. Our real money account is still in and
aimed up.
Comments: Nov. 22
OUT for Friday. Out signal closed as an out but the
signal changed from a buy in the last few seconds of the trading day
too late for our real money account where we held on to the S&P index
that we bought yesterday. The S&P futures index sold off even
more in the 15 minutes after the market closed which indicates a negative
outlook. The market started dropping last night after the Florida
decision. We can't predict what happens after the close.
Comments: Nov. 21
BUY for Wednesday. Not the greatest buy signal but
with Thanksgiving we should see reduced volume and some small buying.
The last three "out" days saved us 1.8% on the S&P and 4.7%
on the NASDAQ100. Our "OUT" days seem to cancel themselves out
with a slightly positive direction over the long term.
Comments: Nov. 20
We have an OUT signal Tuesday. Bias for Tuesday is
slightly positive. Historically we should see some upside activity
starting Tuesday or Wednesday prior to Thanksgiving.
Comments: Nov. 17
We have an OUT signal Monday. Historically we
should see some upside activity starting Tuesday or Wednesday prior to
Thanksgiving. The market looks well balanced at this level. Bias Monday is
very slightly negative. Stay in the money market for the weekend and
pick up extra interest.
