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Daily Market Commentary

Comments: December 29, 2006

100% money market for Wednesday, 2007. The markets will be closed Tuesday in honor of president Gerald Ford.  I was hoping for a strong signal to start off the new year, but our signal was flat and we moved fully into the money market.  Anytime we are not making money I am trying to find out why. Over the past month and a half we have been mostly flat. The Ndx has fallen about 2% while the S&P showed a 1% gain. These mixed markets make life more difficult for our program since it causes cross currents and shows that the investors are split in their thinking. 2007 should bring an end to that problem and a more uniform market should evolve. A special "thank you" to a trader going by the name "Hamakua" for posting a link to our site on a trader forum.  We got a big spike in hits from that posting, it is much appreciated. Closing the year with a +50% gain is very exciting and it presents us with a challenge going forward. So in 2007 we will make every effort to out-perform 2006 while adjusting our exposure to the markets in line with the strength of our probability for success. We will continue to use our reliable and established methodology while working towards improvement, and we will do it one day at a time.  Happy New Year to all. And a heart felt year-end thank you to our clients who had the courage to join us while we were just starting to show promise.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: December 28, 2006

Short: 20% Inverse Dynamic OTC, 80% money market for Friday.  The year end pre-holiday trend is generally higher. Our signal is negative, and so once again we have a clash. I moved 20% into the Inverse Dynamic OTC along with our signal. January should bring clearer signals with less interference.  Regarding market direction, the intermediate term looks choppy, but the longer term still looks positive.  T-Index closed at -52.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: December 27, 2006

100% money market for Thursday.  Our signal remained neutral and the probabilities also fell to an even ground.  December often adds an extra challenge to market analysis. Year end tax adjustments and seasonal trading patterns combine with investors vacations to cause disruptions to normal expectations. Thursday leaves us one last pre-2007 signal. The T-Index gained to -54.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

   

Comments: December 26, 2006

25% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC, 75% money market for Wednesday.  Tuesday's limited market movement brought our signal to "neutral" from very negative. Our overall probabilities moved to slightly positive and I have taken a small "long" position.  Our T-Index continues to hover around -60.  Volume and market movements should be small over the next few days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: December 22, 2006

100% money market for Monday.  We showed a gain for the week, once again bringing our year-to-date gain over the +50% mark. For Tuesday, we have another "short" signal opposed by a strong positive seasonal tendency. So like yesterday we are remaining in the money market. We will wait for a more one sided opportunity to move into the markets.  Since we can work the market from either side, up or down, the opportunities come often.  Our negative longer term forecast for December has now come true for the NDX, but the S&P remains positive for the month.  Our T-Index closed at -58 stubbornly staying negative. Wishing you all a happy holiday season. I will be back on Tuesday to try to step our way positively through the last few days of 2006.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: December 21, 2006

100% money market for Friday.  I was looking forward to a "long" signal for Friday, but instead got a strong "short" signal. The normally strong seasonal tendency for a rise prior to Christmas combined with other seasonal related factors leaves us with dramatically opposing influences. The safest position is the money market. If you watched us for a while you know we do not trade whole heartedly unless we have a strong reason to do so. Unfortunately Friday poses a dilemma that is best solved by avoidance. But fortunately we have the opportunity to chose that option and secure the small but safe return that it offers.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: December 20, 2006

15% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC, 85% money market for Thursday.  The strong upward seasonal tendency is bumping against a slightly negative forecast.  I decided to yield to seasonality and gingerly go long 15% in the Dynamic fund, which gave us a 30% market exposure.  When the market closed, it closed on the low-of-the-day, another very positive indicator (but too late for our type of trading).  Our T-Index closed at -60. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: December 19, 2006

25% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 75% money market for Wednesday.  Since we went short 6 trading days ago the NDX has lost only about 1/3 of a percent. We are holding our small short position, cautious as we are almost into the pre Christmas seasonal rally. I expect it will come again this year since the market generally goes higher in December during those years that the market has already showed some gains.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: December 18, 2006---sorry I thought I posted this last night.

25% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 75% money market for Tuesday.  Monday's market drop pushed our account gains back over the +50% mark year to date. For Tuesday the probabilities strengthened near the close and we reduced our exposure to match. Adjusting our exposure to match the strength of our signals is an important part of why we are doing so well.  Strong seasonal trends should kick in on Wednesday, but Tuesday is up for grabs. Our signal is only moderately negative. Closing Targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1410 and 1433; for the NDX we have 1775 and 1809. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: December 15, 2006

50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Monday. Our program is still calling for a down turn. This is the fifth short signal in a row and we have not seen this happen in over eight months. Our T-Index improved this month from a low of -86 to today's close of -53, a significant change, but still too far from 0 to even be encouraging.  If we do get the overdue down side. It should come Monday or Tuesday since seasonal factors generally drive the market higher nearer to year end.  Closing targets for Monday's S&P are 1415 and 1438; for the NDX we have 1774 and 1825.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: December 14, 2006

50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Friday.  Thursday was another one of those days where it is difficult to see why the market did what it did. There was talk of options expirations being the driving force. These days are frustrating, but show that there is more hidden potential in the markets and provide an interesting challenge.  Today's action pushed our year-to-date gains under the +50% mark. Our signal got more negative for Friday and again we are holding our short position. The Volatility index closed at the lowest level in 13 years. I prefer to see a slowly climbing VIX for a strong market.  Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1418 and 1434; for the NDX we have 1774 and 1814. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: December 13, 2006

50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Thursday.  Our signal improved once more, but again stayed negative, so we held our 50% short position. The probabilities also support the down side. Closing targets for Thursday's S&P are 1405 and 1429; for the NDX we have 1762 and 1799. Our T-Index improved to -60.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: December 12, 2006

50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Wednesday. The Fed continued on its holding path and warned again of the inflation possibility. This did not concern bond traders and rates eased a bit.  In my opinion I see the falling dollar as the leading stimulus to inflation and the continuing war in Iraq the major stimulus to a weak dollar. Our signal improved some, but remains negative. I held our 50% "short" position into Wednesday.  The closing forecast for Wednesday's S&P are 1401 and 1419; for the NDX we have 1764 and 1803.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: December 11, 2006

50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Tuesday.  The upward market adjustment on Monday moved our signal into a strong "short" position with matching probabilities. With the Fed scheduled to meet Tuesday there is always an added bit of uncertainty so we held back 50% in the money market. Regarding the previous comments on the drop between December 11 and 19. That should have read "trades placed" from the 11th through the 19th which would mean the market changes for the next business day (12th through 20th etc.).  Closing targets for the S&P are 1398 and 1418; for the NDX expect 1770 and 1811. The T-Index closed at -66.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: December 8, 2006

100% Money market for Monday.  Our accounts are still up over 50% year to date  with only three weeks left in the year.  This coming week is Fed week, so most of the positioning has already take place.  We have a negative overcast expected for the week, but so far the signals continue to be flat or small. Going back 13 years we find that Decembers generated an average change of -2.9% between the 11th and 19th of the month followed by an average gain of 3.2% through months end.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: December 7, 2006

25% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC, 75% money market for Friday.  Knowing a rock is about to be thrown (see yesterday's forecast) and knowing when to duck, may be too different skills. Being 50% long on Thursday, we took the same knock as the rest of the longs.  For Friday our signal turned flat, but the probabilities were leaning higher, so we reduced our position to only 25% long.  Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1399 and 1416, for the NDX we have 1756 and 1801.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: December 6, 2006

50% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Thursday. It has been over a week since we had a strong signal, today's signal is a weak "long".  Next Tuesday is the FED meeting.  I don't expect any positives to come out of it.  Raising rates will hurt the economy and lowering them could stir inflation.  I expect the FED to just hold on.  I believe another market drop is coming this month, and soon. Most likely by next week, but we will still go day by day.  Closing targets for Thursday's S&P are 1407 and 1421; for the NDX we have 1778 and 1818. T-Index improved slightly to -75.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: December 5, 2006

100% Money market for Wednesday.  Small gains in the indexes but no change in our signal which remains neutral and keeps us in the safety of the money market. Without a strong signal we can expect that Wednesday's news items will have a stronger influence on market direction. We will wait and see how that influences our signal for Thursday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: December 4, 2006

100% Money market for Tuesday.  The market gapped open and tacked on a significant gain for the day.  I did not see any definite cause to pin it on, but some merger activity stimulated gains in similar companies. With a weak signal going into Monday and only partially invested, our loss for the day was relatively small.  Good risk control techniques help keep the stress levels down.  Our signal for Tuesday is flat and we moved fully into the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: December 1, 2006

75% money market, 25% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Monday.  Even though we were only 70% invested "overall" this week ,our accounts walked away with good gains, bringing our year-to-date total to +53.0%. If you are not yet a client, you really need to ask yourself why.  Our closing signal was a "short", but not very strong, so we chose to stay only 25% in the Inverse Dynamic fund. Yesterday's comments continue to hold as we expect more downside going into December.  Our policy of adjusting our risk exposure to our signal strength and probabilities seems to be working well. Closing targets for Monday's S&P are 1389 and 1406; for the NDX we have 1755 and 1796.  Our T-index took another hit and fell to -86.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: November 30, 2006

75% money market, 25% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Friday.  A special "thank you" goes out to one of our clients, "Dick" in Montana, for sending us some of his "world's finest" Corned beef.  We loved it Dick.  We closed out November with a 5.2% gain. and moved partially short for Friday. I don't have any probabilities to post today because of insufficient market data under similar conditions.  If we go lower Friday, I expect that we may be in for a few more days of downside action into next week.  The dollar's current weakness could inflict some pain on the economy and market.  As the dollar goes lower it causes commodities to rise, (like oil prices, building materials etc.)  This type of activity is inflationary and could cause the Fed to make a pre-emptive strike by raising rates (or cause investors to worry about such action). Our T-index is already deep into negative territory at -82, the lowest point this year. So although the road looks clear for improved earnings and a strong market in 2007, the short term could prove dangerous.  As quoted from my last long term forecast  "During the later part of November and all through December we could see the carry through of earlier ripples that were set up during the summer. This should cause the stock market to lose some ground that it acquired going into the fall.Lets see what happens over the next few weeks.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: November 29, 2006

100% money market for Thursday.  Our signal turned flat and we moved fully into the money market for Thursday.  The rebound from Monday's large drop should be complete with the NDX recovering about half of the 40 point decline and the S&P recovering near all of its fall.  So where to go from here?  We have some opposing forces coming into play on Thursday and we will exercise the caution that we are known for in moving to the safety of the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: November 28, 2006

50% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  Our signal continues positive, and although the raw signal strengthened the probabilities did not, so we reduced our exposure in line with our money management guidelines.  We put a strong emphasis on risk management. Although we achieve very large returns, but we do so cautiously.  If you have been watching us for a while you should consider using us as your advisor.  Year to date we are still out performing all 9905 Morningstar ranked US mutual funds.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: November 27, 2006

75% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  Today's market drop pushed our accounts back to the 50% mark.  So far in November we are up about 4%, outperforming the other indexes, but it doesn't seem like we have gone anywhere, since we have been going up and down a little bit all month.  For Tuesday we have a weak "long" signal with good probabilities and we took a 75% long position.  The NDX closed on the low for the day which is usually a sign that it reached an emotional low and could recover for a few days.  Closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1370 and 1393; for the NDX we have 1758 and 1802.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

  

Comments: November 25, 2006

75% money market, 25% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Monday.  Friday's shortened day gave us a "money market" signal for Monday with the amplitude leaning negative.  We held our limited size "short" over the week end. Monday's news of Fridays retail sales will have an impact on Monday's market.  I believe that most of the recent up-move was based upon increasing earnings.  Friday the focus was on the weak dollar and this may bring about a shift in attitude going into the last month of the year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: November 22, 2006

25% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Friday. The market's upwards bias continues, and our signal remains negative.  Since the pre and post Thanksgiving holiday days lean to the upside we reduced our exposure again.  After only 2 losses in 21 days we have suffered 5 losses in the last 7. This is the reality of investing.  There will be some down periods.  The key is to have a strong enough system that is focused on those variables that have shown consistency over a very long period of time. Out system uses 14 years of data.  Since our program analyses the market each day, we generally are not pointed in any one direction for very many days, so our down trends have mostly been of short duration.  Have a happy Thanksgiving.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: November 21, 2006

50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  Not much market movement, which is on a par with the very low volatility index (VIX). I prefer more volatility than what we now have, since larger price swings make investors more emotional and easier to read.  Our signal remains negative.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1392 and 1414; for the NDX we have 1783 and 1825. Our T-Index closed at -72.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: November 20, 2006

75% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  Our signal has turned very negative.  The probabilities are only moderately so and Thanksgiving week usually provides an upward bias to the market. This year the market appears to be over- bought from our technical perspective. The market may continue to climb, but I would expect progress to be limited. Closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1390 and 1407.  For the NDX 1768 and 1820.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: November 17, 2006

75% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Monday.  The markets had a good week while we pulled back a bit, but held over the +50% mark. Our signal is short with moderate probabilities. Thanksgiving usually is a plus for the markets, but they have made substantial gains already, so we will take it day by day as always. Monday's closing targets for the S&P are 1395 and 1412; for the NDX we have 1775 and 1826. Our T-Index closed at -70.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: November 16, 2006

100% money market for Friday.  Time to relax for a day as our signal moves us into the money market.  A rough week, but our accounts remain above the +50% gain for the year-to-date mark, so all is well.  Our program is generally uncorrelated with the stock market which makes it an excellent addition to an existing stock portfolio, to reduce risk in accordance with modern portfolio theory.  For Friday I would expect a small amount of down-side, but do not have enough reason to go short, so we remain safe in the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: November 15, 2006

75% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Thursday.  Wednesday marked our first back-to-back loss in over a month and a half.  We don't read very much into a few down days, as uncomfortable as it is, it is part of the process.  Remember we are long term investors, but we do it one day at a time. For Thursday I expect a continuation of the recent up-swing.  The T-Index gained a few points to -70.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1390 and 1405, for the NDX we have 1775 and 1814. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: November 14, 2006

100% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  Tuesday's market took back all of Monday's gains from us and a bit more.  Our T-Index closed the day even more negative, now -76, a new low for this year. The probabilities are not one sided, so there could be more up-side, but the potential amplitude of the move definitely supports being short and we remain fully short. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: November 13, 2006

100% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  We got a very nice up move Monday helped by a drop in oil prices.  For Tuesday our signal had a strong reversal and the probabilities point to a sharp down day. We fully reversed our position and moved into the inverse fund. I would expect the selling pressure to last through Thursday, so if I am correct we should see the market sharply lower over the next few days. Still we will re-evaluate the situation each day and make the necessary adjustments to try to obtain the highest gain with the lowest amount of risk.  We are doing well, all our accounts are at new highs, but we can't forecast the news, and surprises do happen. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: November 10, 2006

100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Monday.  Our oversized gain for the year makes many people think that we are a "risky" investment.  The truth is we spend a good deal of the time less than 100% exposed, and our ability to obtain net gains from both sides of the market make us a more reasonable choice for many investors.  Read these past comments to see our positions and exposure to risk.  We are however 100% "long" for Monday and have some concerns about the  NDX closing on the high for the day. This doesn't mean the markets should be shorted, but the probabilities as shown, are probably higher than they should be under these conditions.  Since we place our transactions prior to the close we could not reduce our exposure.  Adjusting our exposure for risk is an important reason we are doing so well.  Our T-Index fell again to -74.  Next week could be choppy and after Monday lean to the down side.  We shall see.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: November 9, 2006

100% money market for Friday.  Another winning day for us and new highs (over 50% for the year-to-date), for our accounts.  With an "out" signal, we moved 100% into the money market. The % seem to favor the up side for Friday, but the accompanying amplitudes lean to the down side. My inclination is that the markets will lose some more ground Friday, but I like to trade with my signals. Our T-Index held at -69.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

  

Comments: November 8, 2006

50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Thursday.  With the election over we move back to normal risk conditions and can increase our exposure appropriately.  We increased our exposure to 50% as our "Short" signal remained at a constant strength. This week may have some more up-side to it, but I expect that more negativity will come in next week. Closing targets for the S&P on Thursday are 1376 and 1396; for the NDX we have 1728 and 1765.  Recently we have had only two missed calls in the past 18 trades, this rate is greater than our long term average and can not be sustained.  So don't be distressed to see a somewhat greater fluctuation in our returns moving forward, as that would only be normal. Our T-Index slipped further to -69.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

 

Comments: November 7, 2006

30% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 70% money market for Wednesday.  We had a glitch in yesterday's order entry that left us long only 21% in the Rydex Dynamic OTC.  It was enough, however to bring us over +50% gain for the year-to-date. For Wednesday we have a "Short" signal with matching probabilities.  As we mentioned in yesterday's comments, election results can bring in some additional  unknowns, and that calls for a reduction in exposure, so we reduced exposure to 30%.  It is very important to limit our exposure in times of uncertainty.  Our T-Index closed at -65. Closing targets for Wednesday's S&P are 1374 and 1390; for the NDX we have 1718 and 1753. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

 

Comments: November 6, 2006

75% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC, 25% money market for Tuesday.  Since we will not know how the election will turn out during market time on Tuesday, it seemed save enough to take a partially leveraged position.  Wednesday's market will be more subject to unknown factors and since we are aware that these extra risks exist, we will limit our exposure at that time. For Tuesday the probabilities are in agreement with our signal, so it looks like the rally will continue.  Our T-Index closed at -58. Closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1373 and 1390; for the NDX we have 1720 and 1748. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

 

Comments: November 3, 2006

80% money market, 20% Long, Rydex Dynamic OTC for Monday.  We are now up 48.9% year-to-date and are pleased to say that every client that we have is making money.    Over the last 12 trading days we have only been 100% invested on two days, one day long and one day short. We must be careful to not only make money, but to keep risk to a minimum, so that we do not give back the money we make. By analyzing all the "important" data, and making a new decision each day, we, and not the economy are responsible for our investment progress.  Giving back gains is one reason it is difficult for "buy and hold" investing to make substantial returns.  For example Whole Foods dropped 23% today as it warned of slower growth.  The investment rules keep changing and you must change your thinking to remain a contender.  We have a long signal for Monday, but the probabilities are not as strong as I like to see, so we are only partially invested.  Closing targets for Monday's S&P are 1357 and 1374; for the NDX we have 1688 and 1721. Our T-Index climbed sharply to -59.  Call us, we are accepting new clients.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: November 2, 2006

100% money market for Friday.  I was expecting a "long" signal, but instead we got a "money market" signal with very flat probabilities for Friday.  This leaves us with about a 3% gain for the week, while spending three days in the money market.  Less risk, more reward.  Our T-Index improved a bit, to -71. With Thursday flat and Friday not encouraging, it is looking more possible that last Thursday was the top.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: November 1, 2006

75% money market, 25% Long; Rydex Dynamic OTC.  Once again we move back into the #1 position ahead of all (9,918) US stock funds for year to date gains.  For Thursday we have a "long" signal, but the overall probabilities are not stellar. There could be a little more to the down side prior to a possible upswing into the elections. We took a small long position. The T-Index continues to falter now a -75. Closing targets for Thursday's S&P are 1358 and 1374; for the NDX we have 1687 and 1730.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: October 31, 2006

100% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  The markets closed without conviction, barely changed for the day; what we would expect for a "money market" signal. Our signal for Wednesday is "short" and the probabilities are supportive of the down side. Our T-Index closed at -70. Closing targets for Wednesday are 1369 and 1384 for the S&P; and 1713 and 1747 for the NDX. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: October 30, 2006

100% money market for Tuesday.  You can tell by the way the markets closed that there is no consensus on direction. The NYSE closed down, the NDX up and the S&P flat. The NDX managed to rally after an early sell off. Tuesday will most likely reverse Monday's path. I prefer having the markets all move together to define the tone.  I still expect a positive move as we get closer to the week's end. Our T-Index continues to hold below -60 as more money flows into the 10 year notes.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: October 27, 2006

100% money market for Monday.  We have a flat signal with lots of mixed input.  The probabilities are narrowly positive.  Could be a good positive bounce on Monday, but the early part of the week will most likely be under pressure.  The later part of next week should provide one more upward surge and continue through election day. Once again we are better at one day forecasting so check us each day, and be cautious.  This was a very good week for us, as we made money from both sides of the market with our accounts closing at a new year-to-date high of +44.5%.  Still we must continue to be cautious as we move ahead, analyzing each day individually and adjusting our direction and exposure for potential risk. Yes we are taking new accounts. Please contact us. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

      

Comments: October 26, 2006

50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Friday. Nice day for us, as this pushes our gain for the year well over 40%. Our signal turned "Short", but the probabilities are mild so we moved only 50% in that direction and sheltered the rest in the money market. Friday could be the start of what I would call a bumpy road ahead. This influence could last into the early part of next year. With that in mind I believe that most of the indexes are very close to, or at the top for this year.  Forecasting a month or two ahead is much harder than forecasting the next day, so we will continue to take it one day at a time. Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1381 and 1398; for the NDX we have 1723 and 1757. If any of you are associated with investment chat groups or boards, and like what you see here, please pass on a link to our site, then let us know, we appreciate our good readers. And for everyone else, please tell your friends. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: October 25, 2006

100% Long, Rydex Dynamic OTC for Thursday. We are fully long in anticipation of a rally Thursday. The Fed left things alone as expected and we should see a carry over rally. This looks like a good one as the probabilities are strong and our signal is "long". The Dow, S&P and NYSE are already at new recent highs and I would not be surprised if Thursday marked a short term top.  It looks like some additional trouble could come into the markets about a week after after election day.  Our T-Index continues to get more negative, now at -56. The closing targets for the S&P on Thursday are 1375 and 1392; for the NDX we have 1710 and 1756.  If you have been watching us for a while, why don't you call or e-mail us to get additional information about joining our investment program.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: October 24, 2006

75% money market, 25% Long, Rydex Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  Wednesday is Fed day. We have a flat "money market" signal, but the probabilities are encouraging enough to take a small bite on the plus side.  It has been a week since we last had a strong enough signal to take a full position.  We are not in a hurry, but I would like to see a little more volatility in the market, it is at its lowest point this year.  The earnings so far this quarter have been very positive. I don't expect any change in Fed policy until either weak housing hurts the economy or the strong earnings boosts it.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: October 23, 2006

75% money market, 25% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Tuesday. Could have been some inside trading in Sunday's Futures markets.  A lot of money poured into the index futures at the market open on Sunday.  It was not sophisticated buying, since it quickly  pushed the futures prices up about 1%. Looks like some information was leaked, maybe about Wal-Mart.  Index prices later settled back down and the market actually opened lower on Monday morning. We don't see this type of activity in the indexes that often.... Our Signal strength for Tuesday remains unchanged. I have reduced exposure some as the probabilities have grown less negative. Closing targets for the S&P are 1368 and 1383.  For the NDX we have 1703 and 1741.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: October 20, 2006

50% money market, 50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Monday. Our signal is short, but weak, the probabilities narrowly favor the down side so we reduced our exposure to suite the conditions. This was a textbook week for us. It showed exactly how this program is supposed to work. We were in the money market last Monday when the index was basically unchanged. Then short 100% (2x) on Tuesday and Wednesday as the market fell. Long 50% on Thursday as the market made a small gain and long 25% on Friday as the market made an even smaller gain. Overall our market exposure was just a little more than being long or short the whole week, while our gain was over 3 3/4%.  Our Probabilities supported our signal and allowed us to reduce our exposure to the markets when the potential gains were lowest.  We can't get it right all the time, but it is very nice when it works exactly as planned. Friday Caterpillar's missing earnings expectations and poor future outlook caused it to drop 14.5%. This is a good example of the risk one takes when investing in individual stocks, even when investing without leverage and investing in well established companies, and companies that are part of the Dow. Our T-Index closed at -51, still very negative. Closing targets for Monday's S&P are 1362 and 1378; for the NDX we have 1686 and 1730. A special thanks to Raoul from Texas for sending us a cheese cake, (and Raoul isn't even a client yet).  If you have been enjoying our forecasts please invite your friends to have a look. It will help us grow.  Why not pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: October 19, 2006

75% money market, 25% Long, Rydex Dynamic OTC for Friday.  Our signal toyed between "long" and "money market" near the close, finally settling on the money market.  Overall there was enough of a positive influence and we reduced our exposure to 25%. This means our accounts will change at a rate of about half of that of the Nasdaq 100. Risk avoidance helps you keep the money you make, so when we don't have a strong enough signal we reduce our exposure or go fully into the money market. Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1356 and 1376; for the NDX we have 1688 and 1728. Our T-Index closed at -52. The LA Times reported that California foreclosures were double last years rate.  Retail new auto sales are also down. So the first signs of a recession are beginning to show.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: October 18, 2006

50% money market, 50% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Thursday.  Although we have a strong "Long" signal it is not backed up by the probabilities, which remain weak. The Dow's push through 12,000 will cause some bobbing and weaving till it finally makes a strong decision. The VIX was lower today indicating confidence in the markets, this makes for a more fragile situation and against conventional thinking, could lead to more down side. We took the middle road and reduced our exposure. Thursday's closing targets for the S&P are 1359 and 1376, for the NDX we have 1686 and 1726.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: October 17, 2006

100% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  Our signal remains short, but is becoming less negative. Probabilities still favor the down side. It looks like there could be some more negative carryover into Wednesday with a likely recovery later in the week.  The T-Index lost more ground to close at -51.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1353 and 1369 with the NDX at 1685 and 1727.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: October 16, 2006

100% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  Our signal has gone very negative into the short area.  This is still a buoyant market but it does look like a down day for Tuesday. The probabilities tell the story.  We moved fully short. Closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1361 and 1373; for the NDX we have 1706 and 1741. Our T-index lost ground to -49.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

  

Comments: October 13, 2006

100% Money market for Monday.  As we intimated might happen in our last comment, the positive earnings momentum overshadowed our slightly negative signal. We now have a money market signal for Monday with mixed probabilities. Past Monday, it looks positive. Going forward the earnings should continue to be decent. If I were to guess for the week, I'd have to say the market will go higher with a small pause mid week. Our T-Index closed at -45.  We posted a new long term forecast last Sunday, take a look.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

 

Comments: October 12, 2006

100% Money market for Friday.  Good earnings reports pushed past what ever negative sentiment the market may have tried to develop this past week and vaulted the market past the recent highs. These reports could carry the market thrust into the weekend, our probabilities are flat with a slightly negative signal so I chose to move fully into the money market. I will wait for a stronger signal. The T-Index closed at -49.  We posted a new long term forecast on Sunday, take a look.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: October 11, 2006

50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Thursday.   Even more churning on Wednesday.  We now have five days where the NDX had less than a 1/2% change +/-.  Our signal is still negative, but the picture is not very clear.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1339 and 1361; for the NDX we have 1675 and 1709.  The T-Index only slightly improved to -44.  We posted a new long term forecast on Sunday, take a look.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

 

Comments: October 10, 2006

50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Wednesday.  More churning on Tuesday.  Our signal remains negative, but the probabilities improved some, causing us enough concern to reduce our exposure.  The flip side of making money is losing it and I prefer taking the less risky path.  Closing targets for the S&P for Wednesday are 1346 and 1362; for the NDX we have 1670 and 1712. We posted a new long term forecast on Sunday, take a look.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

 

Comments: October 9, 2006

100% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  We got the churning we spoke of on Friday, with the markets moving both above and below Friday's close.  Our Signal and probabilities for Tuesday are negative. The NDX is running on the last bit of momentum and continues to make new highs, but it looks like it is time for a break. The bonds were closed on Monday. Closing targets for the S&P for Tuesday are 1343 and 1359; for the NDX we have 1668 and 1702.  We posted a new long term forecast on Sunday, take a look.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

 

Comments: October 6, 2006

50% money market, 50% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Monday.  We are holding our partial long position into Monday. Our program produced strong gains for our accounts this week and once again we have out performed all of the 9855 US stock funds as ranked by Morningstar, year-to-date. Our T-Index closed at -47. Closing targets for the S&P for Monday are 1340 and 1360; for the NDX we have 1659 and 1711.  If I were to guess at next week I would expect some churning on Monday, weakness on Tuesday possibly carried over into Wednesday then firming and another attempt at a new high by weeks end.  For those of you who have not yet received our free report on Risk and investment evaluation, please call or email and we will send you one. Also new long term forecast just posted. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

 

Comments: October 5, 2006

50% money market, 50% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Friday. Our signal turned positive for Friday, but the market is no longer running on all cylinders. The gas tank seem close to empty and only momentum is pushing it higher.  Once again we reduced exposure to 50%. Closing targets for the S&P are 1346 and 1361; for the NDX we have 1672 and 1711.  Out T-Index closed at -55.  For those of you who have not yet received our free report on Risk and investment evaluation, please call or email and we will send you one.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

 

Comments: October 4, 2006

100% Money market for Thursday.  Now that was an eye opener. Early weakness then a super up day. Our signal moved to neutral and the probabilities are mixed for Thursday. So it is best to stay out and not risk our capital. We will avoid exposure if we do not have a good reason to support a market direction.  I think that this is just a pause and that we should see some more upward pressure Friday and Monday.  Our T-Index pushed lower to close at -59.   For those of you who have not yet received our free report on Risk and investment evaluation, please call or email and we will send you one.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: October 3, 2006

100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  I expect the Dow to rush past the new high it made Tuesday and hopefully take our Dynamic OTC fund with it. The probabilities look much better today and we moved fully long. It is not so bad being wrong on days that we are only partially exposed. Closing targets for Wednesday for the S&P are 1329 and 1342; for the NDX we have 1623 and 1657.  The T-Index closed lower at -51.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: October 2, 2006

50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Tuesday.  My apologies for miss-posting the Forecast page on Sunday.  The Comments were correct. We started the quarter off with a good gain. Tuesday's signal is "short", but the probabilities were weak so I moved 50% into the money market. Closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1320 and 1338; for the NDX we have 1613 and 1654.  The T-Index closed the month at -49.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: October 1, 2006

100% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Monday.  We closed the quarter up only 2.25% for the three month period.  It was a rocky one for us, but the improvement we made to the program made lots of sense and back-tested well over 14 years. I strongly expect we will be back on track for the fourth quarter. The T-Index closed the month at -47.  Closing targets for Monday's closing S&P are 1329 and 1345. For The NDX we have 1627 and 1668. Our probabilities were mixed and we prefer to see them both aligned with the signal.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 28, 2006

100% Long: Rydex Dynamic ITC fund for Friday.  The month's end should bring in some buying and a possible breakthrough of the Dow's old highs.  Our probabilities look very strong at 4 to 1 for the upside. Our closing targets for the S&P are 1335 and 1349; for the NDX we have 1643 and 1682. The T-Index closed at -46 showing some improvement.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 27, 2006

100% Money Market for Thursday.   The Dow is within passing distance of a new high. This by itself causes a disruption in the normal trading patterns as buyers debate whether to dump stocks or buy more. The momentum players seem to be long while the recent drop in oil prices and interest rates seems to have flattened, eliminating that support.  Our T-Index closed at -51.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 26, 2006

100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  It is unfortunate, but it usually takes a few bad days to spot a potential program improvement, then it takes a few more to get it installed.  Most market influences are not static, but effect the markets with greater or lesser power over time. This time we had a case where the combined influence of oil and interest rates was greater than either of their effects individually.  That influence has weakened, but we still have a positive signal for Wednesday. Our T-Index climbed a bit to -52.  And our closing targets for Wednesday's S&P are 1329 and 1342; while the NDX shows 1644 and 1679.   For those of you who have not yet received our free report on Risk and investment evaluation, please call or email and we will send you one.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 25, 2006

25% Money market, 75% Short: Rydex inverse Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  Monday's drop in oil prices along with a sharp drop in interest rates on the 10 year notes helped push the markets higher.  The lower interest rates will help keep the rates of the variable rate mortgages from jumping higher, and causing more homes to be dumped on the real estate market. These daily injections of good news have managed to keep the market moving higher, yet there still are problems.  The drop in interest rates means that money is flowing into the 10 year bonds, and therefore flowing out of other types of investments. Since the money is going into the longer end of the curve the indication is that it might sit there for a while.  

For those of you who have not yet received our free report on Risk and investment evaluation, please call or email and we will send you one.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

 

Comments: September 22, 2006

100% Short: Rydex inverse Dynamic OTC for Monday.  Our signal turned negative and the T-Index lost more ground to -55, a new low for the year. Our Closing targets for the S&P for Monday are 1302 and 1320; for the NDX we have 1600 and 1640.  A big thank you to my readers who told their friends about us this week, our web hits jumped 25% over the last few days. Your efforts are appreciated.  For those of you who have not yet received our free report on Risk and investment evaluation, please call or email and we will send you one.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 21, 2006

100% Money market for Friday.  The T-Index fell further to -48 and our signal turned flat. I believe my assessment about the oil price and Fed meeting was correct. Thursday a surprise drop in regional factory activity was interpreted as meaning the economy is more rapidly headed towards a recession. This helped move the markets lower. For those of you who have not yet received our free report on Risk and investment evaluation, please call or email and we will send you one.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 20, 2006

25% Money market, 75% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Thursday.  Our signal continues short with only slight improvement. The decline in oil prices, and its downward influence on inflation, seem to be the driving force behind the market's up-move over the past two weeks. It seems they took on extra importance because of the meeting.  With the Fed meeting out of the way, other variables should again become influential. For those of you who have not yet received our free report on Risk and investment evaluation, please call or email and we will send you one. Our T-Index closed unchanged. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 19, 2006

25% Money market, 75% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  Almost no one is looking for the Fed to raise rates on Wednesday. Our signal however remains short. I think it is prudent not to go fully short into this Fed meeting so I am holding back 25%. My Report on Risk is complete including a method to compare different investments. I will send it to any one who calls or emails us requesting it. Our T-Index dropped to -42 as money moved into Treasury bonds. Closing targets for the S&P are 1306 and 1323; for the NDX we have 1605 and 1636. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 18, 2006

25% Money market, 75% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  With the Fed meeting on Wednesday the markets should be somewhat muted for Tuesday. Near the close our signal danced between  50% and 100% "short" for Tuesday, so we took a 75% position. Our T-Index gained a bit to -33.  My work on risk is almost complete. Interestingly I found that the market was 4 times as volatile back in the early part of 2001 compared to today as measured by the average daily change + or -.  We will be publishing a risk index weekly along with an Efficiency index that will allow you to better compare our investment program with other forms of investments.  In the news today Amaranth Advisorsí multi-billion dollar hedge fund suffer losses in excess of 35 percent because of a position on the natural gas markets, a drop of about 47% off its high this year. This once again brings to light the importance of understanding risk and risk control.  Hedge funds tend to be very secretive and secretive is not good.  We are very transparent and we are not a hedge fund. Tuesdays closing targets are 1315 and 1330; for the NDX we have 1610 and 1647.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 17, 2006

50% Money market, 50% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Monday.  Our Signal turned slightly negative.  And we moved 50% into the Inverse fund.  Our T-Index continues unchanged at -35.  Monday's closing targets for the S&P are 1312 and 1326; for the NDX we have 1613 and 1647.  I am working on finishing our "risk" report. It should give everyone a new way to think about risk and a method to compare various investments from a risk focused point of view. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 14, 2006

100% Money market for Thursday.  Our indicators moved completely flat and we moved fully into the money market.  For those of you interested in our risk report, It is still in preparation and should be emailed out over the weekend.  One important item uncovered so far is that between Jan 1 to date, there was no significant difference in the amount of risk undertaken by our program as compared to being long the Nasdaq 100 for the same period. Overall risk is measured by money at risk each day, times the leverage applied, and summed over the period that is being analyzed. It this case the difference turned out to be about half of one percent. Because although some days we were leveraged at 2x, we were also in the money market at zero risk during other days. Full details and data will be provided in the report.  There are many other measures of risk that are discussed and our report will elaborate on them. Our T-Index for Wednesday remained unchanged.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 13, 2006

25% Money market, 75% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Thursday.  Good carryover strength in this market, but not nearly as strong as the two day run the markets had mid-August.  Our weekly view shows a pause here and resumption of the uptrend through Tuesday. I moved 25% into the money market as our signal became slightly less negative.  After the strong recent run we (our accounts) had, a few bad days are expected as most often we tend to hold to our trend line which (still happily) shows our accounts compounding at a rate of over 3.5% per month this year. Closing targets for Thursday's S&P are 1307 and 1325; with the NDX showing 1601 and 1634.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 12, 2006

100% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  Had some excitement today that I would have liked to do without. Being on the wrong side of a strong day is not fun. Our Signal got more negative and I am looking for a 50% retracing of today's run on Wednesday, but nothing is ever guaranteed.  Our T-Index started the day off improving, but closed the day unchanged. Closing targets for Wednesday's S&P are 1300 and 1319; for the NDX we have 1586 and 1630.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: September 11, 2006

100% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  After an early drop the NDX recovered. Most of the other indexes remained flat. Although the upside enthusiasm seems to be gone I am not sure it is replaced by gloom. So we may just churn in place a bit. Our T-Index closed at -34, a slight improvement.  Our closing targets for the S&P for Tuesday are 1293 and 1309; for the NDX we have 1557 and 1594.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

 

Comments: September 8, 2006

100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Monday.  Our accounts are now at a record high of +40.8% for this year, 2006, taken from January 1 to date (yes these are real gains with real money). During this time we have made over 150 individual, daily trading decisions, since each day is a separate transaction we have not been caught fighting a trend in the wrong direction. We are either right or wrong one day at a time, and when we feel uncertain we move into the money market. Next week I will have a report on how much risk our trading program is exposed to, compared to other investments like the S&P and Nasdaq 100. If you would like a copy of the report just send us an email info@stocmarket.com  or call me at 1-800-556-2226.  We are still taking new accounts. 

I expect the rally to carryover into Monday as our signal is very strong, but after that it is less clear, with mid week having a good chance of turning lower. Our T-Index closed at -36, in recession territory.  Our closing target for the S&P500 is 1291 and 1309; for the NDX we have 1558 and 1597. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

 

Comments: September 7, 2006

100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Friday.  Thursday's drop did set up a "long" signal for Friday.  Thursday's small drop also pushed our gain for the year to a new high now around +38%. Our T-Index closed at -37, halting the recent climb. A good gain on Friday should carry over to Monday. Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1287 and 1304; for the NDX we have 1552 and 1592. Let your friends know about us, we like to watch the hits grow.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

                                   

Comments: September 6, 2006

100% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Thursday.  Half of making money is avoiding unnecessary risks.  The other half is capitalizing when the probabilities are in your favor. If you can do these two things often enough over time you will do well. Our program can not forecast the news, like Intel's announcement about cutting 10% of their work force, but our T-Index does give you a good view of the economy and it is negative. Under a negative T-Index, job cuts are to be expected. Our T-Index closed at -36 an improvement over the past few weeks. Thursday's market should test Wednesday's lows.  We would be much better off to go lower at this point since that would more likely set up another rally for Friday. Thursday's closing targets for the S&P are 1286 and 1310; for the NDX we have 1548 and 1596.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                                    

 

Comments: September 5, 2006

100% money market for Wednesday.  Our signal moved back to neutral and we moved our funds back into the money market.  Prior to Tuesday we spent 4 days in the money market, Tuesday's gain made the wait worthwhile. I think there is more up-side to this run and believe it will come later in the week. Our T-Index climbed sharply, now -41.  If interest rates can stay low while the T-Index turns positive we would be in a much better position for a sustained recovery. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                                    

 

Comments: September 1, 2006

100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  The signal kicked back in on the long side for Tuesday.  We could get some help from those returning from vacation which may kick up the volume. Closing targets for the S&P are 1305 and 1318; for the NDX we are looking at 1576 and 1609. Our T-Index remains very weak at -51. Our accounts ended the month up 34.3% for 2006. If you have been following this site for a while and like it, why not tell your friends or call us and ask for our account info package. Either way it would help us grow and allow me to dedicate more time to doing what I like best, which is making this program as accurate as possible. Have a very nice long weekend, talk with you again on Tuesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

                                                                                                                                         

Comments: August 31, 2006

100% money market for Friday.  We continue to stay in the money market for Friday.  Although the general direction has been higher the NDX has gained little more than 1/2 % over the past 3 days.  This means the buyers and sellers are mostly balanced. We will remain in the money market until we get a clear signal of which way to proceed. This lowers our overall exposure and risk to random market surprises. A quick look at the probabilities show the NDX and SPX leaning in opposite directions. Our T-Index closed at -52.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: August 30, 2006

100% money market for Thursday.  The Nasdaq 100 is now up 5 days in a row and looks like it will continue for a few more days getting a combined pre-holiday and end-of-month boost.  The moves have been small and the index is only about 1/2% above the closing high of two weeks ago.  I would call it a "stealth" rally since the last five days slipped under my radar.  Our T-Index remained at -50.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

  

Comments: August 29, 2006

100% money market for Wednesday.  Another money market day for us.  The market recovered from the early morning drop and closed slightly higher. T-Index is -50. Not much news. I expect this rally to continue.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: August 28, 2006

100% money market for Tuesday.  Our signal went flat and we moved our accounts into the money market. The current trend is up and that should continue into past Labor Day, though we may get a dip on Tuesday.  We did not get the pull back that I expected as the NDX shows three gains in a row.  Our T-Index closed at -51.  The Middle East is quiet, allowing oil prices to ease, and many investors are on vacation.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: August 25, 2006

100% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Monday. Our accounts posted a good gain for the week while the S&P and NDX showed a decline. We are holding our position in the Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC Fund. The potential for a sharp decline continues into Monday.  A rally should then start Tuesday or more likely on Wednesday lasting a few days. This could then push the markets to new recent highs.  For Monday's S&P closing prices I have 1281 and 1302; for the NDX I have 1522 and 1575. Our T-Index is now very negative at -52.  This is certainly a recession value, the only thing holding the economy up as I see it is the relatively low interest rate.  Even though the housing market has stalled and there is an increasing overhang of homes on the market, the interest rates have not climbed sufficiently to cause those adjustable rate loans to cause great pain. But should the rates rise much, the combination of 100% loans and adjustable rate mortgages will cause foreclosures, a price drop and push the recession button. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: August 24, 2006

100% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Friday. Our signal remains negative but the probabilities are flat. The size of the potential change looks greater for the down side and we are holding our "short" position.  Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1284 and 1305; for the NDX we have 1525 and 1572.  Our T-Index retreated to -50. If you go to the Morningstar fund ranking page and set it up for "fund quick rank", "all US stock funds" and "total return year to date" you will see the rankings for 9987 US mutual funds.  Please compare our +36% return on our managed account to the best of the mutual funds for 2006. Please consider investing with us. You will not be able to find any good reasons not to. New long term forecast was posted this past Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: August 23, 2006

100% Short. Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Thursday.  We have a strong "short" signal for Thursday.  For the NDX the average amount down greatly exceeds the average amount up in our probability numbers on the Forecast page. The early aftermarket looked positive but I still expect some more deterioration in the indexes over the next few days.  If not tomorrow, then Friday and or Monday. Closing targets for Thursday's S&P are 1284 and 1302; for the NDX we have 1524 and 1562.  Our T-Index closed slightly higher at -48.  New long term forecast was posted this past Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: August 22, 2006

100% money market for Wednesday. Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow's remarks managed to squash the early rally and the markets closed relatively unchanged on Tuesday.  This left us with a small gain in our accounts and a "money market" signal for Wednesday.  To avoid risk we move into the money market when we do not have a high probability of being correct. I am still looking for a downturn near the end of the week, but the middle of the week is now more uncertain. Our T-Index continues to drift lower closing at -50.  New long term forecast was posted yesterday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: August 21, 2006

100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  Our winning streak continues and we pushed our gains for 2006 to date to over 36.5%.  Please give us a call and climb on board. We reversed our position at the close expecting a continuation of last week's rally for Tuesday as our signal turned mildly positive.  As of now I expect to see a two or three day climb followed by a decline at the end of the week, but I still take it one day at a time. Our T-Index continued to decline. Closing targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1290 and 1307; for the NDX we have 1549 and 1582.  I posted a new long term forecast today.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: August 18, 2006

100% Short. Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Monday.  A very good week for us and our 2006 year to date total is now plus 34.4%.  The markets are a little stronger than I expected, so there is a chance that this run could continue unabated well into next week.  But the probabilities seem to be in our favor for a short pull back and our signal is "Short". The NDX has now gone up 5 days in a row, the longest streak since early January when it was up 7.  The T-Index moved lower to -47. This will eventually have a negative effect on the market. The closing targets for Monday's S&P are 1296 and 1308; for the NDX we have 1553 and 1594.  I will post an updated long term forecast over the weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: August 17, 2006

75% money market, 25% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Friday. Wednesday was a flat day for the markets with most markets just slightly higher.  Our signal continues flat but it is now leaning slightly negative. I took a small short position reflecting the sentiment. I do not feel that we have very much more to go on this rally and I think any continuation will not start until next week.  Our t-index continued its negative path closing at -43.  I will post an updated long term forecast over the weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: August 16, 2006

100% money market for Thursday.  Back-to-back large gains in the NDX has pushed our gain for 2006 to +34.5%.  Glad to say all our clients are happily making money.  Our signal has now turned flat and we moved into the money market. Our t-Index continues to fall and closed at -39.  Though there may still be some wind behind the up-move, it seems best to take our money off the table.  Looking ahead we could see the market pull back on Friday and Monday, but we will wait for our daily signals.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: August 15, 2006

Long: 100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  A very nice up-day for us as  we made another new high, giving us a gain of over 28% for 2006.  Our signal continues positive although I do not believe there is much upside left in this move and in recent years  the NDX has a poor record of climbing after a strong day.  The dollar is getting weaker and our T-Index fell sharply to -36, both negative signs.  I expect to see a pull back by the end of the week.  Closing targets for Wednesday's S&P are 1278 and 1297; for the NDX we see 1515 and 1551. If you are sitting this out, have a loss or only a small gain this year, please give us a call 1-800-556-2226.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

    

Comments: August 14, 2006

Long: 100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Tuesday. The market gained for the first few hours Monday, then gave most of it back. It looks better for Tuesday. We have a "Long" signal and the probabilities have strengthened. Our T-Index shows some slow improvement, now at -28 as the 10 year note closed over 5%. Tuesday's closing targets for the S&P are 1261 and 1277; with the NDX targets at 1478 and 1517. The recovery should continue for a few days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 

Comments: August 11, 2006

100% money market for Monday. Our signal is flat with probabilities slightly to the up side. I expect a small recovery during the early and middle part of next week.  Our T-Index shows some minor improvement closing at -30. If the Fed leaves interest rates alone I believe the economy will have a chance to heal itself, with long term rates climbing back over 5%. But new terrorism threats have their costs and will act as a tax on the economy dampening earnings.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

  

Comments: August 10, 2006

Short: 100% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC Fund for Friday.  The markets did drift lower over the past week.  The Fed's rate hike suspension did nothing to change the market's direction. Our T-Index closed at -32 having gone as low as -39.  I expect that the rates on the 10 year notes will start to creep higher again soon. Closing targets for the S&P are 1263 and 1278; for the NDX I see 1477 and 1509.  The real estate trends in NYC that I mentioned last May are continuing.  High retail rents on the lower west side have forced out many businesses.  One two block stretch along the very popular 8th street in Greenwich Village has about a 40% vacancy rate.  This is keeping potential shoppers away along with potential renters.  Yet just a few blocks east, the businesses are booming and streets filled with shoppers.  Going further west towards the Hudson river the old meat packing district is being forced out due to rising real estate values. Strangely the high end fashion designers of both women's apparel and furniture are making that area a home. It is very odd to see the remaining meat packers side by side with haute couture. I will weave some more observations into my next long term forecasts.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Next forecast August 10th.

Comments: August 2, 2006

Short: 100% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC Fund for Thursday. Then in money market from Aug 4 thru Aug 10. The continued drop in the T-Index is worrisome because it is now solidly in negative territory, closed today at -34.  In the past this has meant the country was headed into a recession. I see no reason to think that this time is any different.  I will return from New York and will post a comment after the market closes on the 10th.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1268 and 1285; for the NDX we have 1478 and 1515.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: August 1, 2006

Long: 100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  I was glad to see the correction today.  Friday's market did not make sense to me and today was the adjustment. I will be in New York later this week and part of next week.  With the T-Index getting very negative now -33 and the Fed meeting on Tuesday adding uncertainty, this looked like a good time. Tomorrow will be my last comment till next Thursday.  Closing targets for Wednesday's S&P are 1262 and 1280, for the NDX we have 1463 and 1509. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: July 31, 2006

100% money market for Tuesday.  Our signal turned negative, but was unstable near the close.  The T-Index closed lower to -28. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: July 28, 2006

Long: 100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Monday.  The lower than expected GDP surprised the street and produced strong rallies in both the stock and bond markets anticipating an end to the rate hikes. The dollar going the opposite way, fell.  We were also surprised and took some lumps.  Our signal has reversed to "long" expecting a continuation of the rally on Monday while our T-Index continued its slide to -26.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1280 and 1316; for the NDX we have 1488 and 1530.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: July 27, 2006

Short: 100% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC Fund for Friday.  Our signal remained negative and our T-Index gained a small amount to close at -24.  The closing targets for the S&P are 1254 and 1271 while targets for the NDX are 1461 and 1491.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: July 26, 2006

Short: 100% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC Fund for Thursday.  We have a weak short signal for Thursday.  Our T-Index held at -26 (Wednesday's index should read -26 also).  The markets have shown more strength (the past few days) than our signals have indicated. This generally leads to a correction in the direction indicated by our signals. Closing targets for the S&P are 1261 and 1276, for the NDX we have 1468 and 1501. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: July 25, 2006

100% money market for Wednesday.  The market filp-flopped all day ending higher. Our signal turned flat and we moved back into the money market.  The T-Index fell some more to -25. UPS, which is a good indicator for the economy as a whole, missed earnings forecasts.  The probabilities for Wednesday look positive but they are balanced by a weak aftermarket. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

 

Comments: July 24, 2006

Short: 100% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC Fund for Tuesday.  Very strong up-day with the NDX closing on the high-of-the-day.  The aftermarket continues with the up-trend.  Our T-Index remained unchanged and our signal turned negative.  The market has a recent history of not following through after a good up-day, but it also has a long term history of being difficult to predict.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1251 and 1270, for the NDX we have 1456 and 1503.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 21, 2006

100% money market for Monday.  A wild week for the market, a good week for our accounts.  We spent three days in the money market this week, missing the big up move on Wednesday and the move down on Thursday, however it worked out well as our accounts gained over 2.5% on the two days we did trade. The other nice thing is we are generally uncorrelated with the market which is helpful to those of you who are already invested in stocks.  I expect that Monday will be another day of base building. (We made a small correction in our gain for the year, the correct value is +24.4%, five year value corrected to +19.9%). Our T-Index closed at -23, holding close to the lowest levels we have seen since February.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 20, 2006

Short: 100% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC Fund for Friday.  Looks like most  investors were thinking the same as I was yesterday and pulled their funds out of the markets on Thursday. Hopefully they will agree again on Friday.  We now have a "Short" signal with probabilities to match.  Our T-Index managed to hold at -24.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1238 and 1257; for the NDX we have 1441 and 1484.  Opposite to our view, the aftermarket on Thursday started off much higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 19, 2006

100% Money market for Thursday.  Wednesday's market rise made up for the past 4 down days.  But a word of caution.  China's economy grew at a record rate last quarter, which means continued pressure for higher oil and metal prices. The 10 year yields fell on the Benanke report pushing the T-Index down to -24, now reaching serious negative levels.  And the dollar fell, a continuing long term advance in the equity market is generally aligned with a gain in the dollar.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 18, 2006

100% Money market for Wednesday.  The markets stayed negative until near the close then rallied slightly. Our signal remained unchanged and we are out of the market again, choosing the safety of the money markets.  Our T-Index closed flat at -20.  Money flowed out of the treasuries today raising rates, and oil turned lower as the day progressed, showing less concern over middle east tensions. The equity markets however seem more concerned about Mr Bernanke's agenda for interest rates.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 17, 2006

100% Money market for Tuesday. Gold dropped about $20 an ounce as the dollar strengthened, but the equities markets could not reach a consensus and closed mixed.  Our T-Index continued its fall and closed at -20.  Our signal called for the "money market" and we shifted our funds accordingly.  I expect a test of the recent lows on Tuesday.  Closing targets for the S&P 1226 and 1241, for the NDX we see 1448 and 1482.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 14, 2006

100% Long Rydex Dynamic OTC for Monday.  The best I can say for this week was that we managed to lose less than the SPX.  The current Volatility figure closed around 18, in mid-June that number did manage to go over 23. So the relative anxiety is less now, than last month when the S&P dropped below 1230.  Our signal is "long" and continues to gain strength amid a great deal of economic uncertainty.  We held our position and stayed with the program.  Our program becomes more accurate as the Volatility increases since the larger movements make the forecasting easier.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1226 and 1248, for the NDX we have 1448 and 1478.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 13, 2006

100% Long Rydex Dynamic OTC for Friday.  After making early new lows inflamed by $76 oil, the NDX launched a rally only to fail when the Israeli city of Haifa was attacked by rockets.  Money flowed back into the 10 year notes pushing the rates below 5.1%.  This had an effect on our T-Index moving it lower to -17.  Our signal turned positive and we moved 100% long.  It would seem that most of the scary stuff has already come out, we hope we are not premature.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1234 and 1251; for the NDX we have 1460 and 1496.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 12, 2006

75% Money market, 25% Long Rydex Dynamic OTC for Thursday.  The Ndx made a new low going back to May of 2005.  Our signal remains neutral, but is gaining some strength.  I expect a small recovery in the NDX for Thursday, but there is a good chance it will make another new low early in the day.  Our T-Index continued to weaken a little to -15.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 11, 2006

75% Money market, 25% Long Rydex Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  Although we could have done better in the OTC on Tuesday, we ended the day logging another new high, with our accounts now up +26.7% year to date.  Our T-Index continued its negative journey, closing at -14.  Our signal is neutral, but the probabilities are leaning higher for the OTC so we took a small "long" position.  Both our positive and negative signals have been weak lately.  This generally coincides with low volatility and leads to more days in the money market.  Under a negative T-Index the market generally has more down-days than up-days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

     

Comments: July 10, 2006

100% Long Rydex Dynamic S&P for Tuesday.  We have a long signal for Tuesday, but I am concerned that the weakness in the NDX might carry over another day.  The S&P looks healthy and we took our long position there. Our T-Index is still weak at -6. Closing targets for the S&P are 1262 and 1278 for the NDX we have 1510 and 1537.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 7, 2006

75% short (in Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC), 25% money market for Monday.  Our signal turned negative giving us a minor "SHORT" signal.  We increased our inverse position to 75%.  Our T-Index, bouncing back and forth this past year, closed at -6.  The NDX closed on our negative target Friday. Monday's NDX targets are 1518 and 1552.  The targets for the S&P are 1257 and 1272.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 6, 2006

50% Money market, 50% (Short) in Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Friday.  Our T-Index lost value and closed a flat "0".  Our signal also closed flat signaling the Money market.  With the probabilities leaning negative we took a 50% short position in response. The program does well because it allows us to align ourselves with the most probable direction for the next day using our knowledge about the various major groups of investors and traders.  It can't forecast the news reports for the next day which can go with or against the general tendencies that we uncover. The program has improved over the years along with our skills at segmenting the various groups. Closing targets for the S&P are 1263 and 1281.  For the NDX we have 1534 and 1563.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 5, 2006

100% Long (Rydex Dynamic OTC) for Thursday.  I believe traders over-reacted to the North Korea launch and high job growth reports.  We have a "Long" signal for Thursday and are fully long. Our T-Index danced back positive to +2.  The indexes are midrange between over and under priced from a value point of view and have room to move in either direction. Stronger job growth translates to higher earnings with the Fed playing catch up with higher interest rates.  It also means that the Fed has probably not yet overshot the mark.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

Comments: July 3, 2006

50% Long (Rydex Dynamic OTC), 50% Money market for Wednesday. We start off the second half with a small gain. Our signal has weakened to "money market" status, but we should have enough carry-over to last another day to the up-side.  Our T-Index has moved lower to -5.  I expect any gains on Wednesday to be small.  Have a happy fourth. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2004 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2004

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2001

For earlier comments made early in year 2001

For earlier comments made in year 2000

 

Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil