Daily Market Commentary

Comments: June 29, 2007

Current position 50% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC,  for Monday.  Monday should be an interesting market day.  Although our indicator is strong there are a number of cautionary flags. This coming week's trading should be light with a large number of traders and investors on holiday. More important our signal varied substantially during the last have hour, which makes the signals less reliable.  Also our T-Index closed at only +3, with the 10 year notes just barely above 5%. The near zero T-Index and near 5%, 10 year notes leave us in a slightly positive configuration. If the recent trends continue, the yield curve will  flatten which is bad, but the 10 year note is headed below 5% which is good. Monday is the second full day after the Fed announcement and that often is a downer.  So we have uncertainty.  The raw signal would have influenced a full 100% long position, but we lowered our exposure to 50% because of conditions above. I am cautiously optimistic. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 28, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Friday.  Looks like the market is shooting blanks after Thursday's Fed announcement of "unchanged".  Our T-Index moved slightly positive to +8. Our signal is marginally a "short", with multiple conflicting influences.  I chose to stay out, as the overall direction is still positive and the negatives are not convincing.  We have now put together three consecutive months of gains, and gains in five of the last 6 quarters for our clients.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 27, 2007

Current position 100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC,  for Thursday.  Our T-Index held firm at +6 as our 100% long position gave us our best one day gain for this year. Our signal strength is reduced for Thursday, but strong enough to hold our position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 26, 2007

Current position 100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC,  for Wednesday.  The T-Index held at +6 and our signal strength improved allowing us to move 100% long. The market has become more vulnerable as the rate curve flattens, but we are still in a positive mode.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 25, 2007

Current position 50% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC,  for Tuesday. Hedge fund / sub prime worries continued to plague the markets along with the flattening of the yield curve. I guess hedge funds need a governing body for "truth in advertising", I don't believe they should be allowed to use the word "hedge" if they are actually leveraged.  Our T-Index slipped to +6.  Another day or two of this action and the Index will go negative which could put an end to the bull market run.  Our positive signal is not very strong and some of today's action could carry over, but Tuesday's do tend to reverse Mondays direction so we should be OK.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 24, 2007

Current position 37% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC,  for Monday.  Our T-index fell back to +12 reflecting the flattening of the interest rate curve. Our signal turned mildly "short" and we took a small position.  The sub prime worries are back Bear Stearns is sinking $3.2 billion of the firm's capital  into trying to hold up their hedge fund that didn't hedge, instead it borrowed and leveraged investor money at about 10x. Bear Stearns will most likely dissolve their second fund after investors lost 2/3s of their equity. This is the biggest bailout since LTCM. Those "hedgeless" funds put leveraged money into sub-prime mortgages. Bear Stearns is not the only investment bank with these types of funds. There should be more disasters to come.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 21, 2007

Current position 50% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC,  for Friday.  All eyes are on the interest rate spread these days. Thursday's bond action was very positive bringing our T-Index back to +15. The NDX had a full recovery, with other indices doing almost as well. Our market signal is a weak "long" and we moved 50% in the positive direction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 20, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Thursday.  Wednesday closed giving us a minor "short" signal.  I moved into the money market because the speed of the late afternoon drop could have easily taken us into an oversold condition and that would have called for a rebound on Thursday. The markets stopped short of that level and so may very well continue lower. The short term rates climbed faster than the long term rates on Wednesday lowering our T-Index to +11. Wednesday also filled a gap for the obsessive- compulsive chartists, which should eliminate that obstacle, making it easier for the markets to continue higher. Though the pause may last another day or two the uptrend should continue soon. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" Index software.

Comments: June 19, 2007

Current position 100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC,  for Wednesday.  Based on our analysis probabilities are now three to one for an up-day on Wednesday and we moved fully long. The one negative that may become more important in a few days is the rise in short term interest rates, causing our T-Index to drop sharply to +13. The long term rates have fallen over the last 5 days, but it is important that they do not fall faster than the short term rates. We are still in a critical zone that could cause problems in just a few days time if rates do not behave.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: June 18, 2007

Current position 50% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC,  for Tuesday.  Borderline "long" signal.  Probabilities slightly favor the down side with more positive amplitude readings for the NDX. T-Index held at +22 and looking good.  I reduced our exposure to 50%, but the aftermarket is weak and we will probably take a hit.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 15, 2007

Current position 100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC,  for Monday.  The current conditions are somewhat reminiscent of those in early 1996. Then our T-Index had turned positive with the Vix index at about the same level as today and interest rates were climbing and about 1/2% higher than today. However back then the internet was just beginning to build momentum and lower the cost of doing business. Eventually pushing the market into hyper-growth. So I don't expect this time to replicate the late 90's but I do see a steady slow climb until something significant changes. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 14, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Friday.  We sold out of our small long position at the morning fix, picking up about a quarter percent. The markets then spent most of the day holding on to their gains and slipping only a little. Our signal turned even more flat and the probabilities look slightly poorer. A minimal decline is expected on Friday. Our T-Index has now climbed for the seventh day in a row and closed at +20.  I like the market conditions and expect to see it continue higher next week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 13, 2007

Current position 20% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC, 80% Money market for Thursday. Happily we got the expected upside jolt on Wednesday.  For Thursday we are reducing our exposure dramatically by 80% and will sell off the other 20% at the morning fix. The rapid fall off in signal strength moved us into the money market. The NDX may have some strength left for an early gain as it closed on the high, but probably not enough strength to hold on for the whole day.  The ten year and 90 day rates dropped pushing our T-Index up, now standing at a +19.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 12, 2007

Current position 100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC,  for Wednesday.  Strong signal, strengthening and positive T-Index closing at +17, and impressive probabilities are expected to lead to a strong up day Wednesday.  We moved fully long to align ourselves with our statistics.  As the long term rates have risen, the short term rates have fallen, so money is moving out of the long term bonds and into short term treasuries.  What ever the cause it appears that greater inflation is expected and under 5% is no longer an acceptable secure return for long term money. The aftermarket has started down so we will have an uphill battle on Wednesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 11, 2007

Current position 25% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC, 75% Money market for Tuesday.  Our signal remained long but deteriorated and we reduced our exposure.  The rally faded and it looks like investors lost confidence as rates on the 10 year notes continued to increase. Good news for the T-Index as it climbed to +12. Probabilities are weak for Tuesday considering the Long signal.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 8, 2007

Current position 100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC,  for Monday.  Once again the climb in the 10 year rates strengthened our T-Index and it closed at +9.  Liquidity is drying up and it will first effect the housing market. A 1/4% increase in the loan rate would add about 3% to the monthly cost of home ownership. And would reduce the number of people bidding on a particular home, resulting in a drop in the home's final selling price.  Hard to say what that price would be, as a rising real estate market could absorb the increase in rates, but a flat or falling market would mean a decline in home prices. This should not yet concern the stock market as the more normal yield curve means that most businesses will absorb the rate increase.  So now we move into an inflationary cycle. The second quarter should show strong growth in the economy, and by later in the year there will be fear of a rate hike by the Fed.  I believe that most of the current pull back should be over with and, with maybe one more scare next week, we should be back to making new highs.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 7, 2007*** sorry for the delay I thought this was posted yesterday afternoon. 

Current position 75% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC, 25% money market for Friday.  Thursday's drop was deeper than expected. The combined climb in oil prices of about 1$ per barrel and the sharp climb in 10 year rates to over 5% slammed the markets. It was strange to see the oil related stocks get hit on rising oil prices, but an increase in natural gas supplies was most likely the culprit. On top of it all tomorrow is Friday and Fridays historically do not make good up days.  On the flip side our T-Index strengthened to +6. The NDX closed on the low of the day which gives us a 69% probability of going higher the next day compared to an average of 54% for all other times. And our long signal became more positive. We held our position at 75% long. The gains in interest rates if continued at this pace will soon send a second shock through the sub-prime market place. For now the improvement in the T-Index and slope of the interest rate curve is a good thing and not a worry factor.  Oil prices are a problem, but continued price jumps will lead to more conservation and fuel alternatives and efficiencies which will be a good thing long term.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 6, 2007

Current position 75% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC, 25% money market for Thursday.  As we mentioned yesterday interest rates had climbed to a level that would put us into a danger zone.  The market, coincidence or not, responded with a sell-off. The market sell off pushed rates down and moved our T-Index back to positive as it relieved the pressure of last weeks overbought market. Our signal moved mildly positive with decent probabilities and we moved 75% long.  The aftermarket started out negative so there could easily be some early weakness on Thursday. This has now become a trickier stock market, requiring more skill to maneuver through the pitfalls.  I do expect the easy gains of the "bull" market to come back to get everyone through the summer.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 5, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday. Most of the indexes had a bad day while the NDX was only slightly lower. Our T-Index closed at -2 as interest rates climbed to push us ever so slightly into the danger zone. With the T-Index negative and interest rates at this level and higher we can expect to see the market experience more pull backs and larger magnitude drops.  But as of now we are in the gray zone and can go either way. Our signal is very flat and is not providing us with enough observations to properly forecast Wednesdays direction. So we will stay in the money market till we have a clearer indication. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: June 4, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Tuesday. The Shanghai Index dropped over 8% over night but had little effect on the US markets.  We scored another day of market gains and our signal turned flat expecting a small retreat.  The probabilities are negative and I expect that Tuesday will be a down day. Our T-Index remained flat at zero for a third day as interest rates pulled back slightly.  We added a comment to our long term forecast over the weekend so....Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: June 1, 2007

Current position 38% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC, 62% money market for Monday.  The rally continues and has now climbed back into what we consider an overbought area. So although our signal remained "long" and gained strength today, we now have to contend with a rally that may be getting kind of old.  A second problem brewing is the T-Index and its relationship to the long term interest rates.  Our T-Index is flat at zero while the ten year interest rates are now just a few ticks below 5%.  At this level the T-Index becomes influential on the economy. The GDP has slowed this quarter and any gain in rates not followed by a move into positive territory by the T-Index will most likely put a stopper on the upside for the market.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 31, 2007

Current position 50% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Friday. Our signal remains "long", but the strength has diminished and we are going into a Friday.  Fridays have been difficult days to make money on the upside, however the last few Fridays have been positive. Probabilities are positive, but not very strong.  Very positive news for the T-Index as it has gone above 0. To optimize returns and reduce risk we adjust our position and market exposure each day, but we are long term investors and look to make money over the long term over any type of market condition. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: May 30, 2007

Current position 100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Thursday.  The market opened lower after a 6.5% drop in China's Shanghai index, but recovered with strong gains on the day. Our signal turned long mid day and we moved fully long at the close. Probabilities look good for continuation of the rally into Thursday.  Our T-Index lost a bit of ground to close at -14.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: May 29, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday.  We have a mild "short" signal with very mixed inputs.  I chose to move into the money market as the larger trend is still up.  Our T-Index showed strong gains closing at -11, its best level since last July.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: May 28, 2007

Current position 100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  Caution did serve us well on Friday as the market managed a small gain and we were little exposed. Our program has now turned positive and we shifted to 100% Long.  Our T-Index climbed again to -20 which is a good thing as the interest rates have climbed two tenths in the past two weeks closing in on the 5% area, where a negative T-Index would have much more of a negative effect on the economy.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 24, 2007

Current position 15% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Friday. Large down days don't have to be disasters for everyone.  Although we remained unscathed and slightly positive for the week we did let a good opportunity slip past us (see May 23 comments below). This is still a strong bull market and I am shy about bucking it, so even today I am only 15% short as we have our second Short signal. I was expecting a pull back late in the week and Greenspan accelerated it. The smoke should clear soon and with Monday a holiday I expect the markets to be back in full rally mode no later than Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 23, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Thursday.  Our Signal was short prior to Mr. Greenspan's words of caution about the China market expecting a "dramatic correction". With history on his side he is most likely correct but the timing of the correction will most likely be months or years. But our stock market got the jitters and sold off. Since everyone expects a China melt down at some point today's words did nothing to change our "economy" and should not have an impact on our markets past maybe tomorrow.  We moved into the money markets even though we closed with a "short" signal, as the Greenspan effect may have taken most of the pullback out of the market for Thursday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 22, 2007

Current position 100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  Our probabilities have improved and our signal turned "long". Once again we move 100% into the Rydex Dynamic OTC fund.  Our T-Index has started to degenerate and slipped to -27.  A report on Monday showed that the NYSE short interest was at a new all time high. What is more interesting is the rate of increase, which was very large. Now either there are some very smart players out there that are going to make a fortune on a large drop, or the market is going to have a surge higher as the shorts cover.  I opt for the second pick as all those shorts represent longs-in-waiting.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 21, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Tuesday.  Good day for us, as the NDX closed with a reasonable gain.  I expect Tuesday to trade lower, the probabilities are mixed with the S&P looking somewhat worse. There should be better trades later in the week. There most likely will be another attempt to take out the S&P closing high Tuesday or Wednesday. So I do expect the market to make additional highs mid week with some weakness near week's end.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 18, 2007

Current position 100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Monday.  Our T-Index continues to improve closing at -20.  Earnings are strong and interest rates low.  The PE ratio of the indexes are still well within normal ranges of growth.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 17, 2007

Current position 25% Short: Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 75% money market for Friday. Our T-Index held at -22 the highest it has been since last July. Most markets closed slightly lower on Thursday. We have a "short" signal and have taken a small short position, not wishing to challenge this bull market with too much exposure.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 16, 2007

Current position 50% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Thursday.  The yield curve continues to unwind and our T-Index continues to gain closing at -22. With earnings strong and interest rates low all pullbacks should be moderate. Our signal turned to the money market near the close after dancing with a long most of the day. I reduced our exposure going into the close under that condition of uncertainty. Probabilities still look good for the NDX going higher with a 25% chance of a sharp correction Thursday. The probabilities on the S&P lean to the down-side which makes sense considering that we have a money market signal.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 15, 2007

Current position 100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  The inverted yield curve is unwinding and is now slightly positive. Our T-Index which closely follows the curve is still negative, but gaining ground and now only -31. Our signal turned positive and we are fully invested. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 14, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Tuesday. Frustrating day, as a good start turned sour. Our Signal turned short but Tuesdays tend to reverse Monday's move and I am tip-toeing through this mine field till we can get back on track. The fundamentals are long and any pull back should be temporary.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 13, 2007

Current position 100% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Monday. Finally a stronger signal and we moved fully into the Dynamic funds. Our T-Index made a new recent high at -38 so it is going in the right direction. The S&P earnings are growing faster than anticipated leaving more room for growth in the indices.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 10, 2007

Current position Short:  37.5% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 62.5% money market for Friday.  We were unable to take advantage of yesterday's fall due to our late signal. For Friday the signal was stable and negative. Probabilities look even, but there is a potential for another large down day. No fundamental changes here just too many days up.  A new long term forecast is available free.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 9, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Thursday.  As expected the Fed held firm.  After the normal gyrations in both directions the market climbed for a gain. Our signal turned negative on the close again too late for a response.  As we have mentioned before, signals that arrive late do not have much credibility.  A new long term forecast is available free.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 8, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday.  Wednesday is Fed day. Most likely the Fed will take no action. Our signal moved to the money market and that is usually a good place to be on Fed day.  A new long term forecast is available free.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 7, 2007

Current position Short:  37.5% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 62.5% money market for Tuesday.  With Wednesday being the Fed rate announcement and with the market having a very strong run up prior, we expect a small pull back on Tuesday in line with our minor negative signal.  We have a new long term posting, take a look. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 6, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Monday.  Our signal turned "long" on the close too late to change our position.  These late signals generally are not as valid as signals that are stable going into the close. Today we posted a new long term view so please take a look. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 3, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Friday.  We have a "money market" signal with the probabilities leaning slightly negative.  Our T-Index closed at -42 which is the best reading we have seen since last September.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 2, 2007

Current position Short:  38% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 62% money market for Thursday. Our signal turned negative, but mildly so. I expect that most likely it will be a small down day with possibly more to come on Friday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 1, 2007

Current position Long:  75% Rydex Dynamic OTC, 25% money market for Wednesday. Looks like another shift in sentiment as our signal kicked in long with strong probabilities.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 30, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Tuesday.  The markets are over-extended based not so much on the amount of gain, but on the consistency of the advance. Out signal stayed in the money market a second day and we await a clearer direction.  A new long term forecast will be posted by weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 29, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Monday. The NDX picked up steam this week and has gained in 18 of the last 21 days. This is rather exceptional and had not happened before, going back at least 14 years to 1993. Another interesting fact is that the gain per day over the last 21 days was the smallest of the other nearly similar runs. The momentum is building however and that is a positive sign.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 26, 2007

Current position Short: 37.5% Rydex inverse dynamic OTC, 62.5% money market for Friday.  We feel more comfortable with our short today as Microsoft's earnings gain was no surprise, and the NDX looks temporarily over extended. The dollar's fall is good for the multinational corporations, but bad for the low paid wage earners who will have to pay more for their products. Further extending the disparity between the corporate officers and the rest of society. This will not be good for America looking ahead longer term.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 25, 2007

Current position 100% money market.  Our signal turned to a weak short, but considering the strength of the market and the positive earnings surprises due to the weak dollar I kept to the money market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 24, 2007

Current position 100% money market.  Our signal turned from money market to long at the close too late to adjust. Although we have a long signal it appears that the NDX may be ready for a day off. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 23, 2007

Current position 37.5% Short:  Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 62.5% money market for Tuesday. The markets had a steady stream up up-days. They have now reached a level where some backing is expected. Our signal turned slightly negative and we moved a small portion of our capital into the Inverse fund. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 22, 2007

Current position 62.5% Long:  Rydex Dynamic OTC, 37.5% money market for Monday.  Friday's up movement was fed by a 3.9% gain in the Shanghai index the previous night (see below).  Our market will now most likely un-hook and rely on a US influence for the near term, probably earnings. The falling dollar has made the multination corporation's earnings look great and the reports are sending the market higher. This should continue over the next few months.  Look for a reversal of this trend much later in the year when the dollar (most likely) recovers.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 19, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Friday.  The Asian markets turned lower overnight and caused an early sell off in the US.  By the end of the day the markets were relatively unchanged. With our signal still keeping us in the money market I believe that the eyes will be on the overseas markets once more, to see if there is any follow through. Most likely the US will play the follower, relieved with markets higher if the Asian markets rebound and ready to jump ship if Asia's sell-off continues.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 18, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Thursday.  The market churned some today and seems to have peaked. We moved 100% into the money market as our signal turned flat.  I expect the indexes will be lower by the weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 17, 2007

Current position 50% Long:  Rydex Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Wednesday.  The markets did manage to nudge ahead on Tuesday and we continue to have a long signal. This time the probabilities are even, but the potential amplitudes are leaning to the positive side. Our T-Index dropped below -50.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 16, 2007

Current position 50% Long:  Rydex Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Tuesday.  We are holding our long position, but our probabilities for an up-day are probably overly optimistic, as Tuesdays often reverse Monday's direction. Also a number of our technical programs are showing a down day.  Our signal is the final word for us  since it takes most of this information into consideration in determining direction.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 13, 2007

Current position 50% Long:  Rydex Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Monday.  Our signal turned long and we moved 50% into the Rydex Dynamic OTC fund.  Our T-Index improved slightly, but still very negative at -45.  Strolling through Borders book shop this weekend I noticed was the area allocated to computer books was not only shrinking, but they moved the whole section to a more secluded wall and... no one was browsing that section.  Maybe I am the last to notice, but the market is certainly reshaping.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 12, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Friday.  We have insufficient similar data for accurate probabilities and we remain in the money market. Our T-index closed the day at -49.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 11, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Thursday.  Citygroup's decision to slash 17,000 jobs sent a signal to wall street that they don't believe they would be needing those people anytime soon. Meaning for the financial sector, that there is trouble ahead. We moved to the sidelines with our probabilities leaning South. Closing targets for the S&P are 1429 and 1449, for the NDX we have 1773 and 1822. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 10, 2007

Current position 50% Long:  Rydex Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Wednesday. This strong market continues with small steady gains. Our closing targets for Wednesday are 1445 and 1462 for the S&P and 1806 and 1839 for the NDX.  My gut says its time to back off, but we have a long signal so we are in 50%.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 9, 2007

Current position 50% Short:  Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Tuesday. Our signal turned negative.  The markets should be a little tired after the past week of gains. The closing targets for the S&P are 1433 and 1451; for the NDX we have 1776 and 1813. Our T-Index is slowly improving but is of no consequence at these low rates of interest. We have a positive view longer term, negative for Tuesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 5, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Monday.  The probabilities are evenly split, but the potential amplitudes look higher for the up side. The job numbers will be announced on Friday, Monster.com has already lowered their expectations so job growth most likely will not be too high.  The Financial Times reports that the Fitch rating service issued a warning on commercial property defaults.  Apparently the same types of loose lending practices were applied to commercial property and that could add to the sub-prime dilemma. But earnings are still growing for US companies and the PE ratios are on the low side, so there should be more room on the up-side for US equities.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 4, 2007

Current position long: 37.5% Rydex Dynamic OTC, 62.5% money market for Thursday.  Our long signal continues, but the signal strength has diminished.  A look at the probabilities shows potential for a large up day, but the NDX has already gone up five days in a row and had a decent up day on Tuesday. Thursday will be the last day of the week going into a three day holiday, and the last trading day of the week has not faired well in recent years. So we have some conflicts, but no exceptionally strong negatives.  The Financial Times reports that the leading UK fund manager, Ken Murray of Blue Planet Investment Management has sold off half the equities in the portfolios he manages in anticipation of a severe market decline. He is looking at a 20% decline based on a recession in the US. He has $350 Mill in assets and managed three of the four top performing funds in the UK last year. This has not changed my view that there is still some months of life left in the markets so we will continue one day at a time.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1432 and 1449; for the NDX we have 1792 and 1838.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 3, 2007

Current position long: 75% Rydex Dynamic OTC, 25% money market for Wednesday.  Strong day for the markets and I expect a continuation for Wednesday. We have a strong signal and have moved into a partial leveraged long position. Our T-Index is slowly climbing and is now at -60. Once interest rates climb to roughly over 5% the T-Index level becomes significant, as rates become more of a factor in the economy.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1427 and 1454; for the NDX we have 1786 and 1817.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 2, 2007

Current position long: 25% Rydex Dynamic OTC, 75% money market for Tuesday.  There has been hardly any change in the markets for the last three days, but the intra-day gyrations have been sizeable.  Our early "long" signal moved to the money market then back to long on the close. We took a small long position. Closing targets for the S&P are 1419 and 1434, for the NDX we have 1757 and 1791.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: April 1, 2007

Current position: 100% Money market for Monday.  Once again our signal is mixed and we are staying in the money market. The most likely course for the market is higher as this quarter's earnings should be higher, but at a slower rate.  I don't generally give targets when we are in the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 29, 2007

Current position: 100% Money market for Friday. We got a "long" signal as the market was closing and too late to take a position. Friday hasn't been the best day to be long and we don't put too much credibility on signals that change at the close. I expect that we will be trading more next week, as we had a very quite week avoiding the down trend of the last few days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 28, 2007

Current position: 100% Money market for Thursday. The Fed comments put the squash on the rate cut scenario. On top of yesterday's oil and Iran jitters, the market went lower. In my opinion, just like raising rates last year did not stop the externally caused inflation, cutting rates from this low level will not perk up the economy. So investors should be happy with the current positives and stop worrying, at least until fall. Then they can re-evaluate the sub prime problem.  Our signals have been very mixed so we are waiting for a clear path.   I expect it to be up.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: March 27, 2007

Current position: 100% Money market for Wednesday.  I was expecting a resumption of the rally for Wednesday, which would match the normal pattern for a Wednesday, but some things are getting in the way and we have another money market signal.  The aftermarket indexes responded to a run up in oil prices and and a possible Iran crisis by continuing on a downward path. Our T-Index is still very low at -67 about where it was mid February. But it is not signaling anything at this time due to the low interest rates. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: March 26, 2007

Current position: 100% Money market for Tuesday. The markets rebounded in the afternoon after spending most of the day below water. We continue to have mixed readings and have stayed in the money market.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: March 25, 2007

Current position: 100% Money market for Monday. The market contracted for two days but may need another. Our signal has moved us into the money market. I am still bullish longer term, but we may be a bit over bought at this time.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: March 22, 2007

Current position 25% Short Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 75% money market for Friday.  The markets quieted down on Thursday as traders took some profits going into what has been mostly a down Friday session for the last few years. We are maintaining our short position. Closing targets for the S&P are 1422 and 1445; with the NDX showing 1775 and 1818.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: March 21, 2007

Current position 25% Short Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 75% money market for Thursday.  Big jump in the indexes today responding to the Fed, but it doesn't really change anything, the economy is still good and the real estate problem is still there to taunt us later in the year as the lay offs add up. Our closing targets for the S&P are 1423 and 1439; for the NDX we have 1772 and 1817. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: March 20, 2007

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday.  The Fed held firm and continued to be cautious. If you are new to us you should understand that our program is not correlated directly to the stock market, it has has shown exceptional gains and like most investments has shown periods of moderate draw downs. Since the program is not directly correlated to the market these periods can and often do occur out of sync with the market trends. So if you have been following us please continue. Our dip this year is less than two dips we had last year when we had our over 50% returns and I do expect it to recover and continue to do well.  Although we make daily transactions we are long term investors and expect to be around many more years.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: March 19, 2007

Current position: 50% Short, Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Tuesday.  Fed meeting coming up, most likely no change. Closing targets for the S&P 1390 and 1413, for the NDX we have 1736 and 1780.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: March 18, 2007

Current position: 50% Short, Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Monday.  Our "short" signal continues. I believe this down movement is temporary.  Our closing targets for the S&P are 1377 and 1397; for the NDX we have 1718 and 1763.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: March 15, 2007

Current position: 50% Short, Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Friday.  We have a strong "short" signal. There is a possibility that we could have another sizeable down spike. Our closing targets for the S&P are 1381 and 1397; for the NDX we have 1720 and 1763.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: March 14, 2007

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  The market successfully tested its low of March 5th.  The test came sooner than normal so there is a chance that it might retest once again.  Our T-Index is a -77, but is not effective under the current low interest rate conditions. Our program components are very mixed for Thursday and kept us in the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: March 13, 2007

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  We suffered a bad one day hit Tuesday.  Although we are still well above our two worse draw-downs of 2006, Tuesday's hit was a stinger.  We will suspend the use of leverage as we rebuild over the next few weeks. Our first goal is to avoid unnecessary risk. The economic fundamentals are still sound, but we are seeing an anticipation of deteriorating fundamentals well into the future. This should not change how our program responds.  We do want to avoid any more severe one day shocks until we are better able to sustain them.  As long term investors, we expect to be around for many years as we have already weathered the down turn in 2000 though 2002 and one single day does not deter us from our goals.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: March 12, 2007

Current position:  long: 100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Tuesday. Often Tuesday's direction reverses Monday's, however we have a solid "long" signal with very strong probabilities and have moved 100% long. I believe we may see a spurt higher that could continue over the next few days. Our closing targets for Tuesday in the S&P are 1402 and 1414; for the Nasdaq 100 we have 1746 and 1786.  Because trading the Rydex Dynamic funds involves no commissions or slippage they are an excellent vehicle for daily trading. Since Rydex also has Dynamic funds that go inverse to the market, the investor can invest in up or down markets. And due to the Dynamic funds' built in leverage investors can adjust their trading to match their perception of the markets strength, without paying the high cost of borrowing money. Our program utilizes these funds to best advantage.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 9, 2007

Current position: 75% money market, long: 25% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Monday.  This was a good week for all. We gained over 1.8% while only being in the market 30% of the time relative to the other indexes. This is important since it means that our capital was at-risk much less, a more conservative approach to investing. For Monday our signal improved, but not to the point of a buy, so we only took a small position.  Our probabilities are also leaning higher, the one disappointment is that the NDX closed negative and Monday's tend to follow along with Friday's direction, but since the S&P closed higher there may be some upward pull from that side.  Our T-Index showed a sharp improvement from -82 to -73 still not having much influence because of the low level of interest rates in general.  Closing targets for Monday's S&P500 are 1395 and 1410; with the NDX showing 1718 and 1773.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 8, 2007

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  The markets posted a moderate gain for Thursday.  The oscillations from the steep drop of last week should be played out by now. From here the markets should go mostly higher with the possibility of a half hearted attempt at a pull back later in the month, but generally I see market gains going forward as the economy is currently sound, the interest rates are low and we had enough of a pull back to relieve some pressure. The last few years have seen a leaning to the down side on Friday, but either way I am not expecting any large moves.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 7, 2007

Current position: 85% money market, Short: 15% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, for Thursday. Our signal turned "short". I held back on the size of our commitment to the down side because we are colliding with an oscillation off of the recent large drop. Like plucking a string, a large drop will set off an oscillation; ie large drop last week, rebound Tuesday of lesser magnitude, small drop on Wednesday and one more day of up oscillation which would call for an up day for Thursday. We resolved the conflict with a very small short position in line with our negative signal. Closing targets for the S&P are 1381 and 1400, with the targets for the NDX at 1712 and 1746.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 6, 2007

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  We moved into the money market on Tuesday's close. By avoiding the bullet last Tuesday and making a correct call for this Tuesday we are now ahead of both the S&P and Nasdaq 100 for 2007.  Still nothing to brag about, just some personal satisfaction.  Wednesday should be interesting, but I don't expect much in either direction. Unlike yesterday's signal which was very strong with most components in agreement, today we have conflicting views. One aspect is that this Tuesday's jump was primarily driven by a response to the steep drop of the previous week. Most likely short covering. This type of advance often only last a day before some flattening or drop.  We do have some of our signal components supporting a continuation to the up-side, but all in all, we do not have a strong reason to support either direction and therefore the risk exceeds the potential rewards. Our position is, unless we have an overwhelming probability of the next day's market going up or down your funds will be safely invested in the money market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 5, 2007

60% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Tuesday. Monday's drop triggered a strong "Long" signal for us.  We held back some, because of the skittish nature of the current market, but the strength of the signal and probabilities support a greater commitment to the upside. So under these conditions 60% seemed reasonable. Closing targets for the S&P are 1363 and 1385; for the NDX we have 1693 and 1743. Our T-index closed at -82 while the 10 year notes remained just over 4.5%.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 4, 2007

100% money market for Monday. Friday continued it's destructive ways that we mentioned in the previous comments.  Our accounts get to sleep well over the weekend since we moved into the money market.  The NDX lost over 6% this week with the S&P down over 4%. We lost a little over 1% ourselves, as the down side continued into Friday. Our probabilities are mixed for Monday and our signal is for the money market. The NDX closed on the low for the day and this usually indicated a turn around to the up-side. The flip side to this is that Monday generally follows Friday's direction. Our money market signal looks like a winner from here. This drop does not have the normal connections to fundamental like earnings, interest rates or a pending recession. As such is should be short lived. The question is; How much more will come?  We will as always trust our program's years of experience and go one day at a time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: March 1, 2007

Long: 50% Rydex Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Friday.  This is our first confirmed long signal in over two weeks. Under the circumstances of the market's wild ride, I thought it prudent to hold back going 100% long a little while longer. Fridays have had a dismal record since late November of 2000, as they are responsible for almost an 80 percentage point loss in the Nasdaq 100. Thursday seemed to have marked a significant bottom, especially considering that our reading of the economy does not indicate any problems. We are optimistic going forward.  Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1396 and 1417, for the NDX we have 1735 and 1772.  Our T-Index is at -81.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 28, 2007

100% money market for Thursday. Our signal is "money market", and leaning to the up-side. We would have been tempted in the past to take a small long position, but since it is not a verified "long", and the market is jittery, we will wait for a strong signal.  Nothing has changed regarding the US economy, and this does not change my long term forecast. But we may have added a bit more complexity to the market with the power of the China-market influence. On August 31st. 1998 the NDX fell 9.8%.  Interest rates were close to where they are today and the market fully recovered over the next five days. The volatility at that time was three times what it is today. Earnings at that time were declining and PE ratios were higher. I see better conditions now.  Closing targets for the S&P 500 are 1402 and 1414; for the NDX we have 1735 and 1778.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 27, 2007

Short: 25% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 75% money market for Wednesday.  Two weeks ago we mentioned the cracks in the China market, but nothing happened in the US. Today the 9% fall in China captured investor attention. The pull back in China caused a stir here mostly because the basic material sector was overheated, having gained between 15% - 20% since the beginning of the year. Once it was feared that the markets might be indicating that the China boom was over, they ran for the doors. This mini panic easily spread to the other sectors.  What I find interesting is the price of oil, which should have fallen if China's oil demand drops, did not; and the gold index ,which usually moves opposite the markets, dropped a very large 7%.  Tuesday's % change in the Vix was the largest in over 14 years. Most often these jumps came after the markets had already started trending lower and resulted in a rally the next day.  This time there was no downward trend, so we may not see the rally.  We have a "short" signal for Wednesday, so there could be a continuation on the downside. As a long term investor who just happens to do it one day at a time, I don't like seeing large one day moves, as I like to make large gains slowly over time, so I reduced our exposure to 25%.  On the other hand I welcome seeing the Vix increase, as volatility is helpful for reading investor emotions and provides more opportunity for larger gains. One possible scenario for Wednesday is an early drop and then a rally off of a 2007 low.  Overall I believe the market will find a bottom in the very near future and resume its upward climb. But if not, we are still prepared to make money since we can trade in either direction. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 26, 2007

100% money market for Tuesday.  We have a money market signal for Tuesday. The 10 year rates continued to fall pushing our T-Index lower to close at -78. I would expect some up-side on Tuesday as the S&P now has a four day losing streak and Tuesdays often reverse the Monday direction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 24, 2007

Short: 50% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Monday. The markets are holding up near their highs and should continue their climb later this week. For now we see a lower Monday for the NDX. The S&P has already completed three down days and has not had four down days in a row since last August so I expect it would go higher. With little really bad news about, the most likely path for the market is higher. The very low volatility that we are experiencing is keeping the market from overheating and I see these slow gains continuing into the summer.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 22, 2007

Short: 50% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Friday.  Although most of the markets were lower, the NDX managed a gain.  We are holding our short position for Friday.  Oil edged higher and our T-Index climbed a bit to -67. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 21, 2007

Short: 50% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Thursday. With oil back over $60 inflation could once again become an issue. This is not an issue that the Fed can cure with an interest rate hike since it is externally caused, and raising our interest rates is not a direct solution. We moved short 50%, the pull back that we were looking for last week never materialized and the chance of any major pullback has been greatly diminished. I expect that we will have are sporadic down days rather than a down trend. Our T-Index is at the -70 mark, but has little influence at this low interest rate level.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 20, 2007

100% money market for Wednesday.  The program was updated over the weekend, and the probability module should be back on line tomorrow. The update has trimmed out the weaker signals so we will trade about three days a week and remain in the money market the other two days. Tuesday's market started off lower and closed higher. Our T-index slipped further to -72 as the interest rates on the10 year notes fell while the 90 day bill rates rose.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 18, 2007

100% money market for Tuesday.  Our program is being updated.  When complete it will trade a little less often, but should enable us to be fully invested when it does trade, which should be about three days a week. I expect it to be fully operational this coming week. Basically we are pulling out the weaker signals which are less stable. Our T-Index closed the week at -70, as short term rates climbed slightly and long term rates fell.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 15, 2007

75% money market, 25% long Rydex dynamic OTC for Friday. I continue to refine the way we do probabilities.  The new format should be up early next week. Our signal was weak, but positive.  However after the large jump on Wednesday I would not expect much, if any, gain.  The T-Index acting in response to the decline in long term rates dropped to -67. Still not a problem as the rates overall are low.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 14, 2007

100% money market for Thursday.  This nice strong up-day came ahead of schedule for us.  Hard to appreciate when facing the wrong way, but these days do happen. Aggravating, but mostly only a blip in the big picture. Anyway they cause me to focus even harder to make the program better and that is always a good thing.  We have a money market signal for Thursday and I am upgrading the probability calculator so no probabilities will be posted today.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 13, 2007

Short: 50% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Wednesday.  The Dow had a great day on news of multiple bids for Alcoa. The markets followed in varying degrees. On the negative side. The Commerce department reported an increase in the trade gap between what the U.S. sells abroad and what it imports. A record $763.6 billion last year, up 6.5 percent from the previous record in 2005.  Our signal continued short. Closing targets for the S&P are 1432 and 1450 while the figures for the NDX are 1765 and 1798.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 12, 2007

Short: 50% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  Although Tuesday often reverses Monday's direction our signal is "short". This is in line with our weekly forecast we made on February 8th. Tuesday's probabilities are also negative. I would have liked the markets to close a little higher to reinforce our signal, but we will live with it. I don't expect this correction to last more than about one and a half weeks.  A look at the chart suggests first support in the 1763 area for the NDX with the S&P at about 1420.  Our T-Index slightly improved to -56. Closing targets for the S&P are 1425 and 1443 while we have 1752 and 1789 for the NDX.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 9, 2007

Long: 75% Rydex Dynamic OTC, 25% money market for Monday.  Our accounts had a good week while the markets headed lower.  We are now positive for 2007.  If you haven't read the Feb 8th comment read it now as it outlines the week ahead. I think the bulls will see encouragement in the high sailing Fortress hedge fund IPO and Friday's pull back in the indexes; viewing this as a time to buy and pushing the markets higher on Monday.  But remember it was a group of professionals that launched the IPO to "cash out" instead of cashing in on the 2% +20% of profits that investors toss at them. This means to me that they think the party is almost over for the high fees and high returns that they accumulated before they had 3000 other hedge funds as competition.  

If you are reading this you already know who had much better returns, doesn't operate in secret, doesn't hold your money or tie up your funds, and charged very much less in 2006. 

Our T-Index may have turned around as it climbed to -58 on Friday. Closing targets for Monday's S&P are 1424 and 1448; for the NDX we have 1763 and 1813.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 8, 2007

Short: 40% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Friday. 60% money market. Today's signal is more negative. But looking at the probabilities we see the chance of a down day decreased, while the potential amplitudes have expanded on the downside.  Friday's closing targets for the S&P are 1430 and 1454; for the NDX we see 1772 and 1828. I believe that next week will be a most interesting one to trade. Our two day forecast sees Monday as an "up" day.  From there I expect to see some sharp down days that should scare a lot of bulls.  We will, like always, step through it day by day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 7, 2007

Short: 50% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Thursday. 50% money market. Oracle's strong earnings gave the OTC a reason to add 1% on Wednesday.  We have a short signal and the NDX looks like it could give back most if not all of Wednesday's gains. The markets remain somewhat fragmented as the Dow hardly moved and the S&P gained only a small amount. Closing targets for Thursday's S&P are 1441 and 1456; for the NDX we have 1776 and 1826.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 6, 2007

100% money market for Wednesday.  Not much market movement on Tuesday. In fact the average daily change for last year at this time was 30% higher. Our T-Index fell to -60 as the 10 year interest rates fell to close at 4.765%. The T-Index is not a concern under the current conditions of low interest rates and high liquidity.  With little to go, on the markets will most likely swing in the direction of tomorrow's news. The news becomes a larger factor when the other influences dry up. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 5, 2007

Short: 50% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Tuesday.  The markets took a breather on Monday and I expect that there may be some negative carry over into Tuesday.  Our signal for Tuesday was "short" most of the day and moved to "money market" on the close.  We aligned ourselves partially with the negative probabilities and went 50% short. I was expecting a down draft sometime between the 13th to the 23rd, but with the China market indexes showing some cracks and oil back up near $60, the negativity could start earlier, and maybe end earlier.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 2, 2007

Long 100% Dynamic OTC for Monday.  Another "Long" signal with strong supporting probabilities brings us fully into the market.  The S&P had a string of 4 up-days which could be a negative influence. The T-Index has lost some ground to -52, but the more positive aspect is that the rates on the 10 year notes have leveled off. More positives than negatives now. Monday's closing targets for the S&P are 1441 and 1460, for the NDX we have 1777 and 1825.  New long term forecast was posted last Sunday please read it.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Feb 1, 2007

100% Money market for Friday.  A disappointing showing for the NDX Thursday as it rushed higher, topped out early and closed slightly lower for the day.  Our signal for Friday is mixed and leaning short.  The probabilities are also mixed and we moved fully into the money market.   New long term forecast was posted on Sunday please read it.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Jan 31, 2007

Long 100% Dynamic OTC for Thursday.  Our accounts ended flat for the month, however we spent most of the month "under exposed" to the markets.  This is in line with our philosophy of not exposing ourselves to unnecessary risk when we do not have a high probability for success.  For Thursday we find that higher probability as our signal improved.  We are fully long.  Never any guaranties but that is the nature of investing. The Fed held the course as expected and the markets moved higher after the announcement.  Our closing targets for the S&P is 1430 and 1452, for the NDX we have 1781 and 1817. Our T-Index closed at -49 as both long and short term bond prices climbed lowering interest rates a little.  New long term forecast was posted on Sunday please read it.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Jan 30, 2007

Long, 15% Dynamic Russell 2000, 10% Dynamic OTC, 25% Dynamic S&P for Wednesday.  Our signal turned long going into the Fed meeting. I kept the exposure to 50% just in case the Fed rubs the markets the wrong way. If they don't, we should see a good positive finish Wednesday and the week. Our T-Index closed at -46, with interest rates low this is not a problem for the markets. Closing targets for Wednesday's  S&P are 1420 and 1436; for the NDX we have 1760 and 1800. New long term forecast was posted on Sunday please read it.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Jan 29, 2007

Short 15% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Tuesday.  We have a "short" signal, but the components are very mixed and we are going into a Fed meeting so I am not willing to take much risk at this point. I expect things to become much more positive as the week progresses. Sunday I posted a new long term forecast and Monday I made some additional comments to it. I think it is worth reading.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Jan 26, 2007

Long: 15% Rydex Dynamic Russell 2000 for Monday.  Our Signal shifted from "money market" to "long" very near the close. This did little for the probabilities which were already leaning only slightly higher. T-Index closed at -46 making a slow but steady recovery from a very negative -86 at the beginning of December. This week showed a lot of turmoil in the market place, but little progress up or down.  We had very little exposure to those market forces with the exception of Friday and that resulted in a very small gain. It is important to keep overall exposure low unless there is a high probability of success, otherwise you open yourself up to unnecessary risk. The coming week holds the Fed meeting which should be a non-event as I believe everyone thinks they will hold the course. The indexes, I expect, will not move very much prior to the announcement, then relief, combined with the upward pressure of seasonal patterns should move the markets higher. I just posted a new long term forecast!  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Jan 25, 2007

Short: 50% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 25% Inverse Dynamic Russell 2000 for Friday.  Our signal turned negative with matching probabilities. T-Index moved higher to -47. The big question is, was Wednesday a market top. If it was, I would suggest a short term one, as our intermediate term negative influences (as we read them) are diminishing.  I will lay out the mid term, long term and very long term views in the next long term projection that will be posted this weekend.  Closing targets for the S&P for Friday are 1406 and 1432; for the NDX we have 1747 and 1791.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: Jan 24, 2007

100% money market for Thursday.  Our signal remains flat, and we extended our stay in the money market. These are the times when patience is necessary, especially when we see the market go higher without us.  Running our program requires the discipline to follow the rules.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: Jan 23, 2007

100% money market for Wednesday.  Our signal remains flat, but the probabilities have eroded further and we moved fully into the money market. The indices were mixed with the NDX lower and the S&P higher. The NYSE is at all time highs.  T-Index now at -55.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: Jan 22, 2007

85% money market; 15% Rydex Dynamic Russell 2000 for Tuesday. Once again the probabilities are leaning higher with the Signal flat and calling for the money market. I reduced our exposure to the Dynamic Russell to 15%.  I mentioned a test of the 1787 level on the NDX and that was easily sliced through, I thought it would have come later in the week. I expect the uptrend to resume later this week with another down-leg coming mid February, then mostly clear. Hopefully I can put this all together in another long term forecast over the weekend. T-Index mostly unchanged at -58.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: Jan 19, 2007

Long: 25% Rydex Dynamic Russell 2000, 75% Money market for Monday. I expect some positive carryover into Monday, but nothing significant.  Our signal is for the money market but with somewhat positive probabilities, so we put a small portion of our funds into the Dynamic Russell 2000.  We should have another down spike next week, at least to test the 1787 level on the NDX.  Closing targets for Monday's S&P are 1419 and 1449; for the NDX we have 1765 and 1827. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: Jan 18, 2007

Short: 50% Inverse Dynamic OTC, 25% Inverse Dynamic S&P for Friday.  As I said yesterday, improvement should come next week. Our signal remained very negative and our probabilities got worse.  We increased our down side exposure in response. From the charts tech rally should find support about 20 points or so lower on the NDX. Closing Friday targets for the S&P are 1411 and 1432; for the NDX look to 1748 and 1812.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: Jan 17, 2007

Short: 25% Inverse Dynamic OTC, 25% Inverse Dynamic S&P for Thursday.  We reversed direction and expect some more down side for Thursday. It looks like we may have to wait till next week to see improvement.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1419 and 1436; for the NDX we have 1804 and 1840. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: Jan 16, 2007

Long: 25% Rydex Dynamic S&P, 75% Rydex Dynamic Russell 2000 for Wednesday. Looks like we will see some pain on Wednesday as our long signal came up against Intel's announced earnings shortfall after the market closed. The after market is lower. Intel did beat the estimates so maybe when the market opens in the morning some cooler heads will prevail. We unfortunately can't predict the news and so occasionally we find ourselves running fast and in the wrong direction. Closing targets for the S&P are 1424 and 1442; for the NDX we have 1823 and 1863. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: Jan 15, 2007

100% money market for Tuesday. We are growing and are now registered in Texas as well as California. The new IARD registration has made it much easier to register in new states. We do have room in every state and once we get up to our limits we can quickly register. The probabilities are leaning higher for Tuesday, but our signal is flat and we decided to move into the money market. I spent many hours reviewing our program over the long weekend and it is looking very solid. Our T-Index climbed some to -53 now well off the -86 we saw on December 1st. If we continue at this pace the T-Index could be positive by spring. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: Jan 11, 2007

Short: 22% Inverse Russell, 26% Inverse Dynamic Russell, 52% Inverse Dynamic OTC for Friday.  We have a very negative signal, actually the last time we had one this bad was in December of 2002. Our signal has a number of components and only one, our short term trader emulation, is positive. This of course doesn't mean that the market will go down, it only means that our program has given it a high probability of going lower and judging by the size of the average amplitudes there is also a small risk of a large up-day. That said, overall we expect a pull back, and have gone short.  Anytime we take a position long or short we are at risk, over time, by trading with the probabilities, we have been able to make good profits. Our T-Index climbed a bit to -58. Our Closing targets for the S&P are 1411 and 1431; for the NDX we have 1805 and 1873.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan 10, 2007

Long: 25% Rydex Dynamic Russell 2000, 75% money market for Thursday.  Once again the market was led by the NDX, most indices closed higher with the NYA lower by -.25%.  The price of oil continues to fall and that is exerting a positive influence on the markets. The oil (stock) index is down about 11% since it made a new high in mid December.  Our signal was neutral all day, but turned positive right near the close. I prefer to see stable signals and moved only 25% into the plus direction. Our T-Index is at -62.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan 9, 2007 

Short: 50% Rydex Dynamic Inverse Russell 2000, 50% money market for Wednesday. Tuesday was a mixed market with the NDX higher and the S&P and NYA lower.  Money seems to be flowing out of oil stocks and into the Nasdaq 100. Closing targets for the S&P are 1404 and 1419; for the NDX we have 1774 and 1812 . Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan 8, 2007

100% money market for Tuesday.  After a Monday morning sell off the markets recovered and closed slightly higher.  We have a flat signal with the probabilities leaning higher. I am waiting for a more solid signal to take a position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan 5, 2007

Short: 50% Rydex Dynamic Inverse Russell 2000, 50% money market for Monday.  A peek at the charts looks like the indices have formed a broad top and we may just see a sharp break down coming. Our work shows that we have about two weeks left of the negative influence that I spoke of in our long term forecast, with some choppiness that may carry over into late February. I corrected the link to Jefferson National see previous comment.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1398 and 1420; for the NDX we have 1754 and 1797. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan 4, 2007

Long: 25% Rydex Dynamic Russell 2000, 75% money market for Friday.  Our first trade for the year shows a gain. The markets have still not picked a unified direction. Most indexes moves slightly higher. While the NYA moved lower and the NDX jumped almost 2 percent.  Fragmented markets make forecasting more difficult. Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1413 and 1425; for the NDX we see 1770 and 1807.  

New! For the past few months we have worked with Jefferson National Financial Corp. to provide our management services to their Flat Fee Annuity product "Monument Advisor" using Rydex funds. This provides tax deferred compounding. Usually Annuities have large up front charges, this one is different, no up front charges only a flat rate of only $20 per month. You can contact them at  http://www.jeffnat.com    1-866-667-0561 Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: Jan 3, 2007

Long: 60% Rydex Dynamic Russell 2000, 40% money market for Thursday.  We ended the year up 51.7% once Rydex added in the money market gains.  With our 1% fee structure the "net take home" for investors exceeded 50% for the year.  For the first month going into 2007 we will be trading the Russell rather than the OTC, this is being done to avoid complications regarding the wash sale rule. The Russell follows the NDX quite well with a little less volatility.  Wednesday's market action provided a roller coaster ride for participants, we watched from the sidelines.  I expect to see prices higher on Thursday. Oil has come down along with the S&P and NDX prices for a couple of weeks and should provide some support to our positive signal.  Closing targets for the S&P are 1410 and 1426, for the NDX we have 1745 and 1774.  What should be of great concern to stock holders  is  Home Depot's 210 million dollar payoff to their X CEO.  This kind of easy money leads to corruption and the fleecing of corporate accounts. The boards are at fault, the boards are intertwined, and share holders lose.  Making it even more difficult to trade individual stocks.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2004 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2004

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2001

For earlier comments made early in year 2001

For earlier comments made in year 2000

Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil