Daily Market Commentary

Comments: June 30, 2008

Current position: 50% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday.   The NDX dropped a full percent and closed on its low. Good chance for a recovery on Tuesday.  We are remaining only partially invested as this oil drama plays out.  Our T-Index improved slightly to +24 slowing its descent. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 27, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  We held our money market position for Monday.  Monday is the last day of the quarter.  June was a difficult month, we slipped about 1% while the indexes slipped about 8%.  We had a decent quarter gaining 4.7% and are ahead year-to-date at just under 22%. Our T-Index closed at +15 and is slipping slowly.  With the market fundamentally oversold by our criteria I expect it will find its legs soon and we should get a small rally. But I don't expect any great move until September.  Our signal remains flat so I don't mind waiting for the next move. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 26, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  The market started down after the close Wednesday and had negative climatic activity on Thursday with the NDX closing down over 4% and on the lows of the day. The rush for the exits from General Motors, down over 10% at the open, was the probable catalyst.  When an index closes on the lows is usually good for a bounce, but we trade prior to the close and our signal was 100% money market. We will wait for a less dramatic opportunity.  The NDX, Dow, NYSE, and S&P all closed on their lows.  Meanwhile our fundamental component which measures earnings and interest rates signaled a "buy" indicating that the market was historically oversold from a value point of view.  Looks like we are at or very near a short term bottom.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 25, 2008

Current position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Thursday.  Both the Fed and the market acted as expected. Our signal carried over unchanged and the pullback from Wednesday's highs suggests to me that there is a little more upside for Thursday. However since we did not see an increase in signal strength we reduced our exposure.  The aftermarket is has turned lower but we are now only partially exposed and comfortable.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 24, 2008

Current position: 50% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Wednesday is Fed decision day, but most believe that the rates will remain unchanged.  Raising rates in the US will only further hurt our economy and not slow inflation which is mostly coming from outside the US.  Lowering already low rates will not help the economy since those rates would not translate into many loans that would help the broad economy, as lenders have tightened the grip on funds. So expect rates to hold, and the market to stage a small rally.  We continue to keep our exposure somewhat limited.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 23, 2008

Current position: Short, 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Tuesday.  Although the Dow remained basically unchanged, we gained enough through the drop in the NDX, to go positive for the month of June.  Our signal has become less negative and we reduced our exposure accordingly.  Looking at the NDX I see neither signs of a turnaround or signs of a selling climax. We are stepping though this period cautiously.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 20, 2008

Current position: Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Monday.  Our signal remains unchanged for Monday and it looks like Monday could be exciting judging from the negative amplitude posted on our probability chart.  Our accounts had a good week and we are back over +22.5% for 2008. Our T-Index has been slowly losing ground and now sits at +27, were it to go negative at this point it would be an indication of more negative market pressure.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 19, 2008

Current position: Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Friday.  Today's signal is a medium strength short and we continue to limit our exposure, but pleased to have gained about 2.4% in Thursday's up move. Oil traders are beginning to feel the negative pressure.  First it was the dollar making upward overtures, then trading regulations and now China says it will raise fuel prices, which may mean cuts in the subsidy to users.  Many markets outside of Europe are seeing much greater inflationary pressure than we are, so there will be more pressure world wide to slow growth. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 18, 2008

Current position: 75% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Thursday. Signal strength improved significantly and we increased our market exposure to 75%. Some regulation is underway to curtail speculative oil trading.  London is limiting trading.  I expect regulatory focus will have some downward influence on oil prices.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 17, 2008

Current position: 25% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Wednesday.  Every time we find a few days going against us I dig deeper into the program to see if I missed some gem. This time was no exception and we will be better off going forward.  I am looking forward to an excellent second half of the year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 16, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Oil hit new highs today but the NDX did not seem to care, it did not seem to care when oil backed off to close lower either.  We may spend another day of two evaluating these markets.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 15, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Recent trading indicates that the movement oil is currently swinging the stock markets. This action started about May 15 and I expect that it is a temporary condition which the markets will adjust to. We will be extra cautious since this type of activity can be unsettling.  More of our long term view posted today.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 12, 2008

Current position: Short, 75% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Friday.  The inverse relationship between oil and and the stock market has become very tight and the time delay has been reduced.  Early this year a large change in oil price would be reflected the following day with an opposite move in the stock market, but starting in April we saw the link tighten. By mid-May the lag was removed and the oil-stock market link was very strong.  You can see this by doing a regression analysis on the daily changes in oil and the NDX. This adjustment comes at the expense of some other long time relationships and has become the "fashionable" indicator for day traders.  If you have a real time system you can watch the "uso" etf.  Our indicators turned very negative and we moved 75% Short.  Check our recent long term posting.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 11, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  For our accounts this was our third worst trading day since January 2006.  Good thing those days are rare. It erased our gain for June.  We are still ahead of the NDX and S&P for June, and we remain about 21% ahead for 2008.  There is always risk in trading.  Today oil was the culprit.  Once again this week the NDX closed on the low of the day. This leads us to believe that there is a good chance the market will rally from here and the worse may be over for a while.  On the negative side the climb in oil will move some more money out of stocks and into commodities.  I have posted a new, brief, long term forecast.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 10, 2008

Current position: 100% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x for Wednesday.  This is our first 100% long position since April 22.  Our signal is strong and the probabilities look good for both the NDX and the SPX.  The dollar moved higher today and oil lower. Tuesday's stock market started lower but did not dip any further.  Interest rates climbed. Last fall we talked about the China market moving into a blow-off phase.  A quick check now shows that the Shanghai index has lost close to half its value since mid October.  With lots of talk about world demand for oil it would seem that oil will just continue to rise, but markets don't work that way.  Expect at some point to see a large drop in oil prices. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 9, 2008

Current position: Short, 37.5% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Tuesday.  When the NDX closed on the low of the day Friday I was concerned that the market might have reached a turn around point. Monday morning at the early fix I moved half of our position into the money market to limit our risk for the rest of the day.  By the close we had another strong "short" signal, but the discrepancy between the direction of the NDX and the other markets was a cause for concern, and I limited our exposure to 37.5%.  Things should be more clear in a day or two.  A large part of making money is avoiding over-exposure in uncertain markets.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 6, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% Rydex Inverse Dow 2x for Monday. Oil spiked higher Friday continuing Thursday's trend. The NDX had a very negative day loosing more than 3%.  This combined with our strong negative signal leads me to believe the down trend will continue on Monday.  Brazil ewz along with the oil service index xoi were down both of these generally move with the price of oil. It appears that these indexes are anticipation a weakening of the economy and an eventual fall in oil prices.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: June 5, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Strong up day all around for the markets and that unfortunately includes oil and most commodities as the dollar fell. Our signal pulled back some, and combined with the 4% jump in oil prices I can't see much more upside progress.  Our accounts outpaced the indexes again this week with much less market exposure.  We strive to keep our market risk down and it has paid off.  All accounts are at new highs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 4, 2008

Current position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5 % money market for Thursday.  Our Signal improved slightly and we increased our exposure to the markets accordingly. Risk factor still seems high but it appears that money is moving out of oil and commodities and into the NDX. The financials in the S&P are holding that index back and some of the financial money may be moving towards tech.  I expect that the NDX will make another attempt at going through Wednesdays high, but the after-market is lower as I write this. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: June 3, 2008

Current position: 25% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 75 % money market for Wednesday. Tuesday had some large swings and I was glad to have walked away with a gain.  For Wednesday a slightly positive signal with slightly negative probabilities. We moved with the signal, supported by drops in oil and other commodities, a stronger dollar, and positive comments from the Fed (moving the focus to stabilizing our currency) add to that Wednesday is our favorite day to go long. But the pull back may not be over and therefore the reduced exposure.   As to the Fed remarks I pay more attention to remarks that are forward looking than those that look back. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: June 2, 2008

Current position: 75% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Tuesday.  I would have liked for the NDX to have closed a bit lower but we still have a strong "Short" signal for Tuesday.  Oil climbed some, but not enough to really influence the general market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 31, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Oil prices have become one of the most dominant variables effecting this market. The overall commodity index has leveled off since February, with wheat going lower, corn holding and oil going higher. The US dollar seems to have found a bottom and is climbing slowly. The departure from oil by the broader group of commodities signals to me that the end of the run for oil is near.  The climb in oil prices, though steep, does not appear to be in a blow-off phase.  Unfortunately these two observations tend to contradict each other to a certain extent. Falling oil could easily give new life to the markets and that is something we need to watch because as money flows out of oil it will need to find a home and T-Bills, still under 2%, do not look like the place to be.  I believe some of this oil-to-stock money has propelled the markets this past week.  Our accounts had a 1% gain for the month. We spent the past three days in the money market and will remain there on Monday.  This type of investing requires a lot of effort and discipline, but has brought us the rewards of much greater than market gains with less than market risk exposure. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 29, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  The Commerce Department said "the U.S. economy grew at a sluggish pace in the first quarter, held back by the biggest slump in housing in 26 years and the first decline in final domestic sales in 17 years".  

Oil prices fell even as crude supplies declined, in a direction opposite of what one would expect. Over the last couple of years a fall in oil prices greater than about 1% usually leads to an increase in stock market prices the following day, as investors act on  the positive news. This time we already had three days of stock market gains, so any additional up-move will most likely be blunted. Our T-Index is sitting at +37.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 28, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  Dow Chemical announced a price raise of up to 20% across the board.  Their chairman said:  “For years, Washington has failed to address the issue of rising energy costs and, as a result, the country now faces a true energy crisis, one that is causing serious harm to America’s manufacturing sector and all consumers of energy”.  The markets for some reason did not seem very concerned and the indexes closed with small gains.  Our signal finally turned positive, but with so little conviction that we remain in the money market. Strong signals make us money.  No sense trading the weak ones.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 27, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  Good day for the market, bad day for us. Could be the market is setting up to base in this area after experiencing a few percentage point correction over the past week and a half.  Both short and long term interest rates climbed to new highs as the dollar climbed and oil retreated.  Wednesday has a good record of going higher and I believe today's climb could continue into Wednesday, but our signal is flat.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 23, 2008

Current position: 60% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 40% money market for Tuesday.  A very nice steady week for us. Four small gains and one day in the money market brought our year-to-date gains to 26.1% (fees not included). The market itself did not fare very well and both the NDX and SPX are off over 6% for  2008.  At this time we do have openings for managed accounts in all states so give us a call.  All our accounts trade at the same time in the same fund and at the same price along with our own money.  We believe in what we do, that is why we are investors along  with you. For Tuesday our signal, though still strong, became less negative and we reduced our exposure to 60%. Have an enjoyable long weekend and check back in with us on Tuesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 22, 2008

Current position: 80% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 20% money market for Friday.  We have a strong Short signal but with some components (that I would prefer to see on board) going in the opposite direction. So I held back 20%. A long week end is coming up and there should be some lightening up of positions by traders, Thursdays small up tick should relieve the oversold pressure from the past few days and allow more negativity to creep in.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 21, 2008

Current position: 20% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80 % money market for Thursday.  This has turned into a good week for us as today's large drop in the markets pushed our ytd gain to over 25%. For Thursday we have a money market reading in signal strength, but it has fallen for a number of days and the probabilities now strongly favor a small bounce. I don't want to get too exposed at this point as we have finally started a down trend and I am fairly certain that it is not finished. Once again anyone interested in seeing our daily trades and % changes for the past 28+ months please email me and I will send you the spread sheet.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 20, 2008

Current position: 25% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Wednesday.  There has been some chatter on the web regarding trading our signals and I would like to clear things up. I post information on our trades so that potential investors can check our trading before hopefully signing up with us. I do not encourage trading our signals for two reasons. You will not be able to trade the Rydex funds at the close yourself as we do because I don't post the signal until after the close.  And trading the QQQ or futures involves commissions and slippage and an altogether different time slot.  Over the past 28+ months we have achieved a total gain of over 68% for our clients using Rydex funds. Although this is a sizeable gain, it amounts to less than a tenth of a percent per day which can easily be eaten up by commission, slippage and timing if you were to blindly follow the signals. I hope this clears things up and helps keep people out of trouble. If anyone would like a spread sheet of our actual daily trades and % changes going back to Jan 1, 2006 send me an email and I will attach it and send it back.  

As for today's forecast our signal became more negative, but not excessively so. Therefore we are only partially invested preferring to risk more when we have we have a stronger signal. It was interesting  to watch the "depressing" news this morning compared to yesterday morning when all was "buoyant", realizing that nothing had really changed over the past 24 hours except emotions.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 19, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  The market fell back from new recent highs reversing the moves of recent sessions.  Our signal moved into the gray area and we moved fully into the money market content to wait for a stronger signal.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 17, 2008

Current position: 75% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Monday.  Friday's market repeated Tuesdays performance by dropping 1% then fully recovering.  Only the Dow, of the major averages shows a loss over the past two weeks, having topped out on May 2nd. We remain short, but I have reduced our exposure. Over the past week oil continued to make new highs and another airline closed its doors (Air Midwest). These are items that normally spook the markets but the market continues to rally, now a full two months since the Bear Stearns bottom.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 15, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Friday.  Factory activity declined and joblessness reached a four year high, but progress toward a housing rescue helped move the markets higher.  Our signal became much more negative and we are fully short.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 14, 2008

Current position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Thursday.  Early market gains disappeared and moved our signal into limited positive territory for Thursday. Our signal and probabilities are not in full agreement.   With the NDX hitting new recent highs and the S&P close behind I wonder how much longer money will flow out of T-bills to fuel this rise.  Since March 20 when the 90 day bills hit 0.5% the S&P has risen about 6% and the NDX about 14%.  But short them rates have already tripled (now at 1.785%) so most of the fuel may be gone.  The recent gains have moved our earnings/interest rate model back into the normal area for the S&P, so the index is no longer undervalued by that measure, and S&P earnings continue to fall. We are experiencing some e-mail problems today so please try again on Thursday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 13, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  The market recovered from its early loss and held near even.   Not enough information to make a directional decision, so we reduce our exposure to zero and make a few cents in the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 12, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Tuesday.  The markets were surprisingly strong on Monday.  That should lead to a decline on Tuesday, but we may have some momentum players try to push the market higher early on. 

This weekend I did an overall evaluation of our trading over the past 28 months to see if our exceptional returns came at the expense of higher risk and found that the total market exposure for our investors was actually 17%  less than for those investors that were fully long or fully short the Nasdaq 100 index.  There are very few places where you could have gotten well above market returns with less than market risk.  

The spread between the 10 year notes and 90 day bills continue to narrow, pushing our T-Index higher. Our signal moved strongly to the down side and seems to be justified by the weak probabilities as seen on our "forecast" page.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 9, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Having a good overall handle on market direction is only part of making money and we gave up some gains this past week. The negative momentum has waned over the past few days but has not turned positive, causing us to move into the money market. Our T-Index has gained ground as short and long interest rates have moved back into a more normal relationship with each other. Earnings continue to fall and as they do they allow the market to move lower without being out of line with normal historical values, this fall will most likely continue so I expect a slow steady decline in market value over the next few months.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 8, 2008

Current position: 50% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Friday.  Our indicators are still negative, but less than previously, so we reduced our exposure but remain negative.  The economy in NYC seems to be booming.  High rents are offset by the volume of business. The city is very alive and full of people in their 20's and 30's as well as many NYU students. Restaurants are busy and people are everywhere. Parking is very difficult and no signs of a recession. As to Friday's stock market we should be headed lower with possibly more to follow on Monday.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 7, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Thursday.  We moved fully short.  The NDX made a new short term high Wednesday, then turned around and moved lower.  Looks like that  was the top, but I said that last week too.   The after market is a little higher. The T-Index climbed to +21 and has been climbing the past few days. Expect normal posting times as we are back in California.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 6, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  The market held up on Tuesday and climbed some, even though most of the news was bad.  After the market closed Disney announced some very good earnings, which may have been anticipated by some traders.   I am still looking for a market down turn very soon.  Our signal turned flat and we moved into the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 5, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Tuesday. Late posting, in NYC for a few days.....  Strong short signal. We have moved fully sort, only consideration is the normal tendency for Tuesday's markets to reverse Monday's direction.  I will post on time for Wednesday, but Thursday's posting will again be late.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 2, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Monday's signal turned from "money market"  to "long" at the close. Too late to make the trade.  Changes at the close are not very reliable so it is best to wait for a more stable signal.  The market went much higher early Friday morning before the open. Then spent the rest of the day slipping until the close.  I may not be able to post our positions every day this coming week since I am on vacation, but I will try.  We will be able to post again for sure by Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 1, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Very nice up day bringing all our accounts to new all time highs.  The ndx closed on the high of the day.  I think that was the top, if not I can't see it extending past Monday. Our signal turned flat.  Looking for money to be made on the down side next week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 30, 2008

Current position: 50% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Thursday.  Fed moved as expected and the market was confused, odd day. The markets closed with a minor pull back.  Our signal varied between a mild and strong "long" for Thursday so we held firm. Generally investors are more positive on the day following a Fed move. I expect to see Wednesday's highs tested on Thursday. T-Index closed at -20.  We need to have the desires of the major corporations align with those of the general population. Multinational corporations want a weak dollar since the bulk of their earnings come from overseas.  The weak dollar causes oil and food prices to rise which hurts the general population. So far the government has supported the desires of the corporations over that of the population.  That is close to changing. The Fed needs to keep interest rates low to allow the real estate markets to heal. And a strong economy will help bolster the dollar. But it will take time and earning will continue to fall as they have in S&P latest earnings update. So past this week I expect a lower market going forward for a number of months. I will be in NYC on Thursday and hopefully my laptop will be able to post without too much difficulty. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 29, 2008

Current position: 50% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Another cautious day with the NDX up and most other markets lower. We have a strong signal for Wednesday, but the Fed uncertainty takes away from it, so we are only 50% long. The street is expecting a 1/4% cut, and I do not think they will be too surprised if the rates stayed flat. Interest rates climbed over the past two weeks supporting that theory. Some recent strength in the dollar has trimmed the price of oil, gold, basic materials and some food crops. This might providing some incentive to a flat or small rate cut. I still expect that this week will produce a market top. Our T-Index moved towards even, now at -2. I will be in New York on Thursday and return next week, but I expect to trade and post my column daily.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 28, 2008

Current position: 75% Money market, 25% Short: Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Tuesday.  Not much movement in the markets ahead of the Fed meeting.  We have taken a small short position but no great expectations. My work is pointing to an intermediate market top this week, probably on Thursday.  Kind of hazy as to the exact day with the FED decision on Wednesday.  Looks like the markets could be under a cloud all the way through August. The close of the Democratic National convention will probably bring some relief. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 25, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  We had an excellent week going five-for-five with correct calls. All our accounts are at new all time highs, up 22% for 2008. Friday was a strange day with the NDX down and other indexes higher.  Wednesday we will have a Fed decision.  All of this has set up a mixed signal for Monday. I believe next week will go higher but Monday is too difficult a call and I am not willing to risk our capital without strong justification.  Our T-Index is at -42, unfortunately the current very low interest rates makes it hard to discern any real information from this number.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 24, 2008

Current position: 50% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Friday.  Early weakness gave way to strength following some positive company forecasts.  Our signal turned "short", but it lacked some important "core" components so we limited our exposure. I am looking for more positive market strength next week so a small pull back Friday would be helpful.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 23, 2008

Current position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Thursday.  The market climbed cautiously ahead of the Apple report. Our Signal lost strength, but remains "long" and we reduced our market exposure. The program continues to behave well and our accounts are once again at new highs for the year. Looks like the market will move with Apple on Thursday.  I am writing this prior to the earnings release.   Our T-Index closed at -52.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 22, 2008

Current position: 100% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x for Wednesday.  Our signal moved fully long. Tuesday's earnings news was bad, as is expected in a recession type economy and helped the markets go lower. Could be a little choppy the next few days as some positive carry over from Google collides with the realities of a dual real estate and economic down turn. After the first few days of May I believe the direction will be very clear and negative. T-Index closed at -37.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 21, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Tuesday.  Once again we have a strong negative signal and we have gone fully to the down side. B of A, hit with many bad loans, did not impress.  Our T-Index slipped to -33. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 18, 2008

Current position: 100% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x for Monday.  Thursday our accounts were at an all time high. The Google news cost us on Friday, but I would do it again under the same conditions.  We can only adjust for what we can determine. Surprise events will either help or harm. Our signal has realigned to the Long side. The Google news did not change the economics of the country or the stock market, it did not repair the housing market. It will not change the upcoming earnings forecasts, it only changed the outlook on Google.  Just like the GE news last week did not carry over into this Friday, it is most likely that the Google news will not carry very far. But I do expect it to carry over into Monday.  Our T-Index closed at -23.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 17, 2008

Current position: 100% Short, Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x for Friday.  We have an exceptionally strong "short" signal.  Additionally, in a poor economy most of the news is bad, so Fridays coming ahead of the week end, usually does not do well.  Of course this Friday could be the exception, but our program is based on statistics, lose some, hopefully win more. Our program is good at determining the most promising direction in the absence of news to the contrary. We formulate our forecast and make our trades a few minutes prior to the close. Thursday after the bell  Google came out with unexpected great earnings and the company soared 17% in after market trading so it looks like we may be in for some heavy lumps.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 16, 2008

Current position: 75% money market, Short: 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x  for Thursday.  Intel's earnings sparked a strong rally that held on all day and gained strength.  When it ended it gave us a weak short signal. The dollar fell and our T-Index moved lower to -72.  I would like to elaborate on John McCain proposed suspension of the Federal gasoline tax for the summer.  In general I am for higher fuel taxes to prod reducing our dependence on oil, but I am also in favor of stimulating the economy during downturns. So a more elastic tax could do both. In the same vein it would be very good if the government could "store" funds during boom periods to spend on public works projects like rebuilding our infrastructure, during recessions. Thus providing a functioning "dual" economy (public/private) that could smooth out the dips. Getting government to agree on such a system would be very difficult if not impossible, but elastic taxes might be easier to accomplish. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 15, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday. The market lost most of its early gains and closed just slightly positive.  We moved back into the money market 100%.  By staying out of the market when we do not have a convincing reason to be there we are able to preserve capital for more promising situations. The dollar was higher, but so was the price of oil which closed over $113 per barrel. John McCain outlined some economic proposals which included temporary suspension of the federal gasoline tax during the summer.  Overall they appeared sensible and I was glad to see them. March wholesale prices had their second largest monthly increase in 33 years. On the plus side after the market closed Intel announced a sale gain of 9% and put the aftermarket in rally mode.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 14, 2008

Current position Long: 75% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Tuesday.  The market held up very well after the Wachovia surprise loss and dividend cut. When the economy is in a down turn we must expect to see more negative news than positive.  We do have a strong signal and the NDX showed some base building on the short term charts.  So for at least one day I expect we will go higher. Our T-Index has gone more negative ( -67) and is in a deflationary mode with very low interest rates, so this is not a problem. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 11, 2008

Current position: Short:  20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq100 2x, 80% money market for Monday.  I expect some carryover into Monday that should take us back to the market levels prior to the large pop on April 1st.  The probabilities may be overstating the negativity as our signal has become less negative, though still a short. Our T-Index has moved further into the deflationary negative area now at -40.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 10, 2008

Current position: Short:  20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq100 2x, 80% money market for Friday. I expect traders to sell into any early strength on Friday with the market eventually closing lower and maybe even more aggressive selling on Monday.  I will consider increasing our short position on early strength at the morning fix. We got the upswing in the dollar I talked about yesterday and it pushed the metals and oil lower. Our T-Index moved more negative on the deflationary side to -26.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 9, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  The market showed good resistance to going much lower considering the bad news. This left us with a money market signal and we exited our position at the close. Interest rates fell and our T-Index moved to a -9 on the deflationary side once again. We could be looking at another upswing in the dollar and drop in oil, gold and commodity prices over the next few days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 8, 2008

Current position: Short:  50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq100 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Our signal remained negative, but not quite as strong.    Our T-Index is flat, now at only +1. Wednesday marks the first day of our new down cycle that will be in effect for about two and a half weeks.  The first two cycles for 2008 worked out quite well. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 7, 2008

Current position: Short:  50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq100 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday.  Our signal reversed itself and is now short.  The early gains Monday mostly slipped away but the Nyse managed to achieve its sixth consecutive positive showing.  A pull-back Tuesday or Wednesday should be in order.  Our probabilities are very one sided and negative, even more negative than our signal strength would indicate. Our T-Index is flat and closed at a +2.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 6, 2008

Current position: Long 100% Rydex Nasdaq100 2x for Monday.  We have a strong signal and strong probabilities for Monday to close higher.  The administration is sending a proposal to congress to provide new powers to the Fed to oversee market stability. So I am looking for more up-side early in the week, but I believe the week could close lower and continue lower over the following months. Last week we saw three airlines fail  "three".  And there are more negatives brewing.  The carry-over from the over heated housing market is now being felt in the rental market. Average apartment rents in NYC are estimated at $2,750 per month. This is the stuff that stagflation is made of. So we have deflation in housing prices, and stagflation in rental prices in selected areas. Food and fuel prices linked to the falling dollar are working their way higher on a retail level. High rents eventually cause employees to move away and or push up wages. Cities that lose population (Detroit etc.) eventually collapse as local taxes can't support services. We appear to still be in the early stages of many problems. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 3, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Another money market day. The market held up with bad unemployment data but could not make much headway. Our signal is very conflicted with both positive and negative influences, leaving us with no choice but to remain on the sidelines.  T-Index closed exactly at zero.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 2, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  Sometimes we just need patience as our signal remains flat for a fourth day.  Wednesday an early rally lost steam but did not give up much ground.  Our proprietary cycle program is looking for an end to the current positive cycle (that started Feb 8th) in just 4 more days. This could unfold as another rally most likely starting Friday and lasting through Tuesday. Then I expect we could look forward to retesting, and most likely breaking the lows over the following months. But of course we will still take it one day at a time going in the direction that our program believes carries the least risk and the highest probability of gain. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 1, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  A number of positive news events jump-started the market Tuesday morning and it never took a breather. The very consistent intra-day climb leads me to think that it might continue for a while into Wednesday.  However the normal follow-up trading pattern after a strong up day combined with a sharp decrease in the Vix, that we saw on Tuesday, is for the next two days to be down,  followed by two up days. Our signal did not confirm a direction for Wednesday and we remain on the sidelines.  Once again we see a shift in mood. The dollar did well on Tuesday which helped the rally.  Our T-Index closed slightly positive. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 31, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Our signal continues flat and we remain in the money market.  I do not have a clear trend direction and will wait for more information.  Our T-Index closed at -6 only slightly negative. The dollar closed higher with most commodities ending lower which is positive.  We only increase our exposure to the markets when we are more certain about the markets direction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 28, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Our signal turned flat and we closed out the quarter one day early and 16.4% ahead.  All accounts are at new all time highs.  We secured these gains while limiting our market exposure as we spent a good amount of time in the money market.  The program is running very well. For the markets I am expecting another run higher over the next week or two and I expect it to fail. Perhaps early earning reports will be positive. I believe that one of the reasons for the downturn this past week was the movement of funds out of the stock market and into the commodities markets to cover margin calls due to the exchanges raising margin requirements. This should have a dampening effect on commodity prices, which is good for the economy.  Although we have a flat signal I lean towards Monday closing higher, perhaps after a slow start.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 27, 2008

Current position:  Short: 100%: 40% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 60% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x for Friday.  Our signal became even more negative for Friday and we moved fully short.  The Vix normally increases as the market falls, but Thursday it moved lower, another indication that there could be more negative follow through on Friday.  Fridays are also rather poor performers in downward trending markets but nothing in investing is certain, it just means that the probabilities are in our favor for a lower market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 26, 2008

Current position:  Short: 40%: Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 20% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x, 40% money market for Thursday.  We increased our short position in the S&P and added a small short position in the NDX 100 utilizing the Rydex 2x funds.  Our signal became weaker and moved to a solid "Short".  I think we are in a topping pattern on this small rally and that could extend for a number of days.  We usually prefer positions in the NDX over the S&P, but the S&P appears to be weaker at this time as we saw today. Our T-index continues to gain, now at -13 moving higher as money flows out of the 90 day t-bills. The loss in the dollar and gains in commodities could put an early end to the market rally that started on Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 25, 2008

Current position: 80% money market, Short 20%: Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund for Wednesday.   The market climbed higher for a third day.  The S&P is showing some signs of being tired and we took a small short position in the S&P.  I believe the greater part of the rally is complete and we should see some pause and adjustments. Market sentiment is still positive and should continue positive for a short while. The market ignored some negative news this week but more will come.  T-bill rates continued higher and our T-Index gained more ground to close at -17. We are going into the last few days of the quarter and some mutual funds will make cosmetic adjustments to their portfolios.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 24, 2008  

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Optimism rules for awhile. And although we are looking for more upside over the next week or two we will still adhere to our disciplined approach to the markets. Today we saw money flow out of t-bills and into the stock market. Thursday the 90 day rate was .5%. Monday it more than doubled to close at 1.01%.  This shot our T-Index up from -242 to close at -85. The dollar fell. Tuesday often moves opposite to Monday's direction but the market is showing strength so we will wait and see. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 20, 2008 

Current position: 100% money market for Monday. Markets are closed on Friday giving investors three days to think. We have a money market signal that is leaning higher. Thursday the markets had a slow start, then closed sharply higher but did not make up for the Wednesday loss. Our T-Index plunged even lower to close at -242, very negative indicating deflation, but not a problem as long as interest rates stay low. Any deflation in the soaring food and energy prices would be welcome.  The 90 day t-bill rates hit a low of 0.2% closing at 0.5%.  Money is scrambling for safety and investors are willing to accept minimal interest payments for that safety while they try to figure out their next move.  New long term views were posted this week, read them.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 19, 2008 

Current position,  75% money market, Short 25% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x for Thursday.   We have a money market signal leaning lower.  In addition a couple of rules of thumb say that the second day after a large gain the market goes lower.  The same holds for the second day after a fed adjustment.  Wednesday early market strength dissolved as the dollar gained strength. It looks like the Fed move has gotten the respect of the rest of the world.  Last Thursday our T-Index closed negative. On Friday its fall accelerated and I said it was giving a deflationary alert (see March 14 comments below). Now 5 trading days later we find the DBA (etf of soft commodities) has fallen 13% and the DBC (broad commodity tracking fund) has fallen 7%. Oil and Gold are also lower. 90 day T-Bills are now at 0.65%, the lowest I have seen during the 15 years of my records. It appears the psychology of the market place has changed.  New long term views were posted this week, read them.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 18, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  Investors liked the 3/4% cut in rates and voted the markets higher. Our signal turned flat, but the markets behaved very well during the day and that could lead to a higher Wednesday.  Technicians liked the bottoming action this week and could be inclined to jump on board. The 90 day T-Bills closed at .9%. Our T-Index is screaming deflation and closed at -114. With interest rates as low as they are, the deflation alert will not harm the market and I expect a general upwards market trend for the next two to three weeks. Beyond that economic fears will probably resurface.  New long term views were posted this week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 17, 2008

Current position: Long 50% Rydex OTC 2x, 50% Money market for Tuesday.  I am looking for a small up-day. Our signal is strong, but the Fed meeting could bring a surprise so we are keeping our exposure at 50%.   Like Enron the demise of Bear Stearns wiped out the savings of many employees.  J.P. Morgan will have to fend off law suites and try to integrate 7,000 angry employees into their organization. I believe they will have a hard time moving forward. With the exception of the no-bid award at $2 per share the Fed did the right thing in protecting the clients and keeping the dominos from falling throughout the industry. Bear Stearns took the hit but was also a big part of the cause of the sub prime mess. It is the Feds job to support the economy, not individual companies.  Friday I mentioned that our T-Index indicated a deflationary condition and that falling prices of goods could be in order.  Today we saw a crack in commodity prices with the DBC ( an ETF representing a broad range of commodities) down 4% as our T-Index plunged to -75. I have posted a new long term forecast to discuss these events and their implications for the economy and the stock market. Not all of it will be bad news so read it now!  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 14, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  One day after Standard and Poor's assured the investing public that the worse was over, Bear Stearns clients bailed out and left the 85 year old company without funds.  Although temporarily propped up,  an unraveling of the Bear Stearns investments could have major repercussions throughout the investment community.  One immediate effect was a fall in interest rates moving our T-Index to -47, signaling a failing economy and a deflation scare. This week S&P again downgraded earnings on the 500. Bear Stearns is part of the S&P 500 so expect more ongoing trouble.  Deflation is far from peoples minds for the near term as oil and food prices soar, but conditions could rapidly change leading to a downward price cycle with real-estate already leading the way.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 13, 2008

Current position:  100% money market for Friday.  Our signal turned flat and is leaning slightly negative. Our probabilities are mixed and our T-Index closed at -9.  Standard and Poor's said they thought that major banks had completed most of their write-offs and this seemed to give stocks a push. Write-offs are generally overdone and provide companies with a cushion to move forward.  The banking index BIX reached a new low a few days ago. Watch this index over the next two months as earning come out again. Banks should start to pop if the write-offs are really over.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 12, 2008

Current position: 75% Money market, 25% Long:  Rydex OTC 2x for Thursday.  We have a weak long signal for Thursday. The probabilities as seen on our forecast page look excellent, but there is one problem.  Over the past 15 years the second day following a large gain >4% on the NDX resulted in an average drop of 1/2%. Because of this information we significantly reduced our exposure. In addition the Fed action was not constructive to the dollar and the dollar fell another 1.45% on Wednesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 11, 2008

Current position:  100% money market for Wednesday.  A very nice up day increasing the gain in our accounts for 2008 to over +8%.  Our signal turned flat for Wednesday and slightly negative. There is a chance that we will see some carry over into Wednesday, especially if the Fed move brings support for the dollar. This would bring relief from the high oil and commodity prices, but Tuesday's action did not really support that theory.  Over the past 15 years there is no real  pattern as to what happens the day after a 4% or greater move in the NDX. since the total of the changes add up to less than 1/2%. The changes ranged from under -6.5% to over 6.5%, much risk for little gain. Our T-index improved a bit to +11.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 10, 2008

Current position: Long 100% Rydex OTC 2x, for Tuesday.  Our signal improved and we moved fully long.  The T-Index slipped to neutral.  The market continues to have little going for it long term, but it seems to be priced right based on current earnings and interest rates.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 7, 2008

Current position: Long 50% Rydex OTC 2x, 50% money market for Monday.  Our accounts had a good week, but the markets did poorly.  Monday's buy signal is not very strong and with the market closing below even, we limited our exposure to 50%.  Our T-Index closed higher at +8.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 6, 2008

Current position:  100% money market for Friday.  For Friday we have a rare combination of a flat signal with strong positive historical probabilities for the NDX.  I expect that the market will turn higher, even though Fridays are generally weak in down trending  markets.  Our T-Index closed at -1, basically flat.  We want to see that indicator stay above zero. The recent rapid gains in commodities suggests that at some point there will be some catalyst to cause the dollar to rally, initiating a plunge in oil prices, grains and gold, but I don't see anything on the horizon. If any of my readers can point out some trigger, send me an email, I would like to hear your opinions.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 5, 2008

Current position:  100% money market for Thursday.  After two days of gains our signal returned to a flat position and we moved fully into the money market. Our T-Index slipped once again and closed at +11, now very much in danger of going negative. Clinton once again hinted at a combined Obama/Clinton ticket and most likely is hoping for an offer since she can not reasonably win based on the present delegate count.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 4, 2008

Current position: Long 100% Rydex OTC 2x for Wednesday.  It appears that we are seeing bottoming action on the charts.  A chart of the NDX lows shows a triple bottom. I think it will hold up for a while. There are some cracks in the commodity "up-move" and Tuesday it looked like some money came out of the commodity market and into stocks. Our signal got stronger and we remain 100% long.  Our T-Index however slipped to +32. Were this to go negative (under the conditions of the ongoing earnings decline we see from Standard and Poor's), I would then expect a significant increase in the rate of the market decline.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 3, 2008

Current position: Long 100% Rydex OTC 2x for Tuesday.  For the first time in quite a while we have a strong "long" signal and have entered back into the market 100%. The dollar hit another low on Monday pushing oil, gold, and grain  higher.             Tuesday's primaries should be interesting with most eyes on Texas and Ohio. The Financial Times had a section on why they thought Clinton had fallen behind.  And applied a quotation from Groucho Marx "The secret to success in life is sincerity. If you can fake that, you've got it made." Either she is sincere and doesn't look it, or isn't and can't fake it.  As for Obama, he is either sincere or does a very good job faking it.    Our T-Index continues to fall but is still strong closing at +41.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 2, 2008

Current position,  100% money market for Monday.  There has been an increase in the money trading back and forth between the commodities markets and the stock market. This is similar to the more standard movements between the bond and stock markets. It adds another layer of complexity and opportunity for trading. With Friday being weak I expect to see some further weakness on Monday morning. The market is also near the old lows so we could see some more testing, which could get scary.  Standard and Poor's listed corporations continue to report lower earnings and our "earnings/interest rate/pricing" model shows the market indices dragging along their historical lower supporting boundaries.  Under these conditions the market is more likely to experience a continuous slow slide rather than a rapid drop as seen in 1987 and 2000 when the market was over valued by these measures.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 28, 2008

Current position,  100% money market for Friday.  The market has flattened and we have been in the money market for five days. The dollar was beaten down this week pushing up the cost for food and oil.  The Index futures markets were lower at the close indicating that more selling could be in store at the open. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 27, 2008

Current position,  100% money market for Thursday.  Our signal remains flat but is leaning slightly lower.  Our T-Index, though still strong at +57 has fallen rapidly in the last two weeks. We continue to wait for a stronger signal.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 26, 2008

Current position,  100% money market for Wednesday.  Our signal remains neutral. The current focus is on commodity prices and inflation.  Wheat has doubled since last year and jumped 34% since the start of this year. Oil closed over $100/b.  This is external inflation caused by foreign demand.  Raising interest rates would not help very much.   If you look at the reported Standard and Poors 500 earnings you would see nearly weekly downward revisions. This is a failing economy and needs the rate cuts, which in a small way unfortunately feeds the inflation.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 25, 2008

Current position,  100% money market for Tuesday.  We closed out our partial short position at the morning fix. Our signal remains neutral and leaning positive. The T-Index is slipping and closed at +73 still very strong. We are waiting for a stronger signal to give us direction. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 24, 2008

Current position,  75% money market, Short 25% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x for Monday.  The one day reversal on Friday should carry over into Monday, triggering some shorts to cover. So it looks like our expected up cycle may start one day early. Our signal turned flat and leaning positive at the close so we most likely will get dinged on our partial short exposure.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 21, 2008

Current position, Short: 75% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x, 25% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x for Friday. Thursday's decline replaced Wednesday's gain and from my point of view made the market very vulnerable to further downside movement over the next two trading days. Our cycle program shows this short term decline coming to an end on Monday with a longer term positive cycle starting on Tuesday. Also the normal market pattern is for Monday to follow Friday's direction. With our signal "short" for Friday we could be looking for a test of the closing lows. The S&P is less than 2.5% away and the NDX is only 1.5% away. We are fully short in anticipation.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 20, 2008

Current position, Short: 37% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x, 63% money market for Wednesday.  The stronger than expected day on Wednesday should lead to some weakness on Thursday.  We still have a neutral signal that is leaning a bit negative.  Tuesday's election results leads to the question.  Can Obama extract the US from the costs of war in time to pay for the social programs and save the economy?  Or will it be one cost upon the other?  Investors will have to weigh these issues as the drama unfolds.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 19, 2008

Current position, Short: 13% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x, 87% money market for Wednesday.  After a strong opening the markets retreated as oil reached $100 a barrel. Our signal, which was "short" the majority of the day, closed "short", however it moved to neutral near the close causing us to close out most of our short position.  The T-Index closed at +81 and is still very positive.  As of this writing the aftermarket was up strong, giving us the possibility that Wednesday could be a repeat of Tuesday's action.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 16, 2008

Current position, Short: 50% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday.  Markets are closed on Monday.  For Tuesday we continue to have a short signal, but it has lost some strength.  Our cycle program marks Tuesday as the last day of this short and sluggish up-cycle. A four day down cycle starts on Wednesday and since we are in a weak market there could be another test of the January 23rd inter day low during that time.  Beyond that our cycle program is looking at a longer up-cycle carrying into April.  We will still depend on our more robust program to call the transactions on a daily basis. New long term forecast posted today! Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 14, 2008

Current position: Short 75% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x, 25% money market for Friday. Our probabilities turned exceptionally negative showing only a 17% chance of going higher on the NDX and more than a 2: ratio on the size of the move.  We reversed our position in line with our signal. The Fed chairman's somewhat negative comments on the state of the economy may have exacerbated the early weakness.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 13, 2008

Current position: Long 75% Rydex OTC 2x, 25% money market for Thursday. The NDX played catch-up and showed a strong gain for the day. The short positive cycle that we are reading, culminates on Monday and our rising signal adds some credibility to this possibility. Possibly we could move in a small topping pattern into Monday, then work our way lower during next week. Our T-Index has hovered near +100 the past three days so from an interest rate point-of-view the economy is fine.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 12, 2008

Current position: Long 75% Rydex OTC 2x, 25% money market for Wednesday.  Buffett's positive comments spoiled our fun for a little while, but as the day progressed the NDX slipped providing us with a gain for the day.  Our signal switched sides and we moved "long" for Wednesday. The banking index showed some strength on Tuesday and most indexes closed positive. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 11, 2008

Current position: Short 75% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x for Tuesday. The bank stocks are behaving badly and our signal has turned sharply negative.  The three day upturn in the NDX has added 3% to that index, and I believe it will stall at this point, but possibly resume later in the week. We pulled out of our bank position and have gone short the Rydex version of the NDX. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 10, 2008

Current position: Long 12.5% Rydex Banking Sector Fund, 87.5% Money market for Monday.  Although the Dow and S&P closed lower as expected on Friday, the NDX showed strength. Our signal remains neutral for Monday and the bulk of our capital remains in the money market. I expect the market to move to the up-side as the week progresses.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 7, 2008

Current position: Short: 25% Rydex Inverse OTC 2x, Long 12.5% Rydex Banking Sector Fund, 62.5% Money market for Friday.  We have another "money market" signal, but if you were looking for a bottom, Friday could be your day. Our cycle program is looking for a recovery starting Monday.  Since the last day of a down cycle can be scary, we have taken a small short position to offset our Banking "long" and provide a small amount of negative exposure if the final dip does take place. I am looking for an up-week next week. The recently battered tech stocks should do well. I also continue to like the banks.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 6, 2008

Current position: Long 52% Rydex OTC 2x, 12% long Rydex Banking Sector Fund, 36% Money market for Thursday. Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser warned against inflation and his speech helped push the markets lower for a third day. External inflation that we see in oil and food prices is not directly correlated to our interest rates and can not be controlled through our rate changes. Cutting rates is necessary for an improvement in our economy.  We do have a "long" signal for Thursday, but the strength of the signal moved from very strong to moderate as the market slipped. Earnings deterioration seems to be behind the continuing sell-off as each week we find the Standard and Poors reported-and-estimated earnings falling. Not dramatically, but consistently, showing that the problem is well entrenched and ongoing. The market is already at the low extreme based on earnings and interest rates and should start heading back up to a more central level. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 5, 2008

Current position: 87.5% Money market,  12.5% long Rydex Banking Sector Fund for Wednesday. Today's excuse for the lower markets (and a valid one) was the service sector's ISM numbers release. Bad. The markets fell about 3%. But the markets often over-react to backward looking news. So I would expect an upward move in the markets very soon.  The NDX has broken below its closing low of January 23, but remains solidly above the intraday low. Other indices remained above their lows. I do not expect to see a real test of the intraday lows.    Our signal remained flat leaning slightly higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 4, 2008

Current position: 87.5% Money market,  12.5% long Rydex Banking Sector Fund for Tuesday. Merrill Lynch sent the markets lower with its downgrade of Wells Fargo and Wachovia.  I did not like the way the financials behaved and now hold only a small position in the banks.  I was expecting to see a "long" signal for Tuesday reversing Monday's direction, but it came in flat. This rally has run out of steam so we could see the pull back continue during the week before resuming its upward trend. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 2, 2008

Current position: Long 75% Rydex OTC 2x, 12.5% long Rydex Banking Sector Fund, 12.5% long Rydex Financial services Sector Fund for Monday. We have a strong market, and as each day passes it looks less likely that we will attempt to retest the recent lows. The strong downward cyclical influence that we measured started on January 4th and ends February 7. The rate cuts were significant and will have a positive influence on the economy through refinancing.  Additionally it appears that investors are getting more comfortable with the possibility of having Obama win the nomination.  We are watching the bank stocks to see what type of pause will ensue in their run-up, really strong markets do not have much in the way of pull backs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 31, 2008

Current position: 75% Money market,  12.5% long Rydex Banking Sector Fund, 12.5% long Rydex Financial services Sector Fund for Friday.  Looks like we will show a gain for our accounts in January!  Today's strong market day was marred by a sharp sell off in the last 8 minutes. Our signal has moved to neutral and we closed out our "long" OTC transaction and reduced our exposure to the banking and financial area. Three items to take note of here. Unless there is a strong run up in the market prior to a Fed move, the day following the Fed move generally goes up regardless of the direction of the Fed move. From a psychological point of view, investors are just glad the Fed is looking after them.  Second point is when does the investor adage "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" work?  You must first determine if the news impacts earnings looking backward (like a one time earnings bonus) or looking forward (like a rate cut, which will continue to pay benefits). Forward looking news generally does not sell off. The Third item to note is in regards to companies operating income vs one time charges. Under the current conditions the rate cut gives a boost to banks ongoing operating income, which influences investors more than the very real possibility that more "one-time" charges and write downs will hit the banks over the next year. Google earnings came out one cent short of estimates and the stock sunk in after hours trading. Google looks like a better buy with the new PE ratio under 40.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 30, 2008

Current position: 60% Long Rydex OTC 2x, 20% long Rydex Banking Sector Fund, 20% long Rydex Financial services Sector Fund for Thursday.  The Fed cut two rates by 1/2% each. This is a very positive sign for the economy and the banks in particular, and although there may be a short pause in the market run up, the trend should be higher. Google will post earnings after the close on Thursday and traded lower again today. Amazon posted record earnings and managed a small gain. We increased our position in the Rydex OTC 2x. Going forward I expect to see some more "one time" write-offs for the banks, while operating income should show gains. **NOTE aftermarket has fallen about 1% at the time of this posting.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 29, 2008

Current position: 30% Money market, 30% Long Rydex OTC 2x, 20% long Rydex Banking Sector Fund, 20% long Rydex Financial services Sector Fund for Wednesday.  The Fed meeting has everyone's attention.  Our signal has moved to the long position but we held some money back in the money market due to the Fed uncertainty. Capital seems to be flowing out of the tech sector and into the banks, financials, home builders, and real estate companies. I would view moves into the home builders and real estate companies as premature as a turn around would most likely be more than two years out. Keep your eye on Google (goog) for an indication of a new low or breakout.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 28, 2008

Current position: 60% Money market, 20% long Rydex Banking Sector Fund, 20% long Rydex Financial services Sector Fund for Tuesday.  Looks like our assessment of the Banks and Financials was correct. The market is expecting the Fed to continue cutting rates. The BIX (banking index) was up over 3.25% today. if rates are not cut on Wednesday expect to see this index decline, while a 1/2% cut should surge the index higher. I expect a 1/4% cut with more on the way.  For Tuesday our signal is flat and leaning slightly to the up side. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 25, 2008

Current position: 60% Money market, 20% long Rydex Banking Sector Fund, 20% long Rydex Financial services Sector Fund for Monday.  After a wild ride our accounts ended marginally up for the week along with the S&P.  The NDX however lost another 3%.  Our signal has gone flat with the probabilities showing a greater chance to go up, but only a small expected gain; while the probability to go lower is less, the size of the drop could be large.  We have moved to the money market with the majority of our capital, while remaining long on the banks and financials.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 24, 2008

Current position 30% Short Rydex inverse OTC 2x, 30% Money market, 20% long Rydex Banking Sector Fund, 20% long Rydex Financial services Sector Fund for Friday.  The market's upward momentum carried over into Thursday. Our signal turned negative with some fluctuation in strength. Holding our longer term "long" banking and financial positions we went short 30% with the inverse OTC 2x.  Today's LA times had a front page story on the surge in refinancing calls. So it has already started.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 23, 2008

Current position 60% Long Rydex OTC 2x, 20% long Rydex Banking Sector Fund, 20% long Rydex Financial services Sector Fund for Thursday.  In accordance with my longer term view that the Fed will continue to cut rates deep enough to impact mortgage rates and stimulate refinancing, I have taken a minor position in the Rydex banking and financial services funds. These sectors have been beaten down significantly and their ability to turn around this morning as the overall market fell sharply indicates that new money is flowing back in. I still expect some sub prime shocks to occur from time to time, but the overall direction for banking stocks should be higher. The US banks should be better off than foreign banks who are not going to benefit from the lower rates.  Money has transitioned out of the tech stocks and into the banking area. I believe that money will continue to flow into this area as rates step lower. With the volatility at high levels the added diversification for our accounts should be helpful. These positions will be carefully monitored and adjusted as necessary while the rest of our funds will be traded as usual. T-Index closed at +98, it doesn't get much better than that. For additional information on this subject and how it might  impact real estate read today's long term posting.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 22, 2008

Current position 60% Long Rydex OTC 2x, 40% money market for Wednesday.  Bernanke stepped up prior to the open of the markets and cut rates 3/4%.  After the sell orders came off the books the markets readjusted part way and held firm.  We exited half of our long position at the morning fix as a precaution against the market crumbling late in the day.  Although the 3/4% rate cut will not have a major effect on immediately improving the economy, it will go a ways towards bringing down interest rates in general and mortgage rates in particular. I am sure the Bank of America purchase of Countrywide was not made in the dark, I expect that the plan is to cut rates until mortgage rates fall enough to stimulate refinancing and bring the banks back into the black. BAC up about 4% today. T-Index also showed a sharp jump, indicating a more positive reflection on the economy. Closed at +90.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 18, 2008

Current position 50% Long Rydex OTC 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday.  We continue to look for a bounce from this oversold condition.  Friday's positive close for the NDX is a plus for continuation into Tuesday, though we would have liked for the S&P to have also closed positive.  We had a rough week along with the markets as traders were overpowered by sellers.  Friday did see our T-Index jump sharply to +49  adding to expectations of a rally early in the week.  If we get an early week rally I expect that there will be selling into the rally keeping it from going very far and probably a return to the downside later in the week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 17, 2008

Current position  100% money market for Friday.  Wednesday night's rally rolled over to an early Thursday rally that quickly deflated. The S&P suffered a 2.9% decline with our NDX dropping 1.6%.  Bernanke did not have any new solutions to offer, but did expose the Government for causing the Sub-Prime mess. According to Bernanke it was the government agencies (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) that originated and processed the loans into securities. All went well for a while, but this process took the risk out of the banks hands. The incentive for the banks was to make loans, not check references. There was no penalty for defaults since the banks no longer were responsible for the loans. It becomes very clear as to why nothing was done, since the government was the cause of the problem we could not really expect the government to admit their errors and stop the mess. That would mean expecting many people in a chain of command to have integrity. Heads would roll. Easier this way, to just finger point and everyone keeps their jobs. 

The same extreme conditions that held going into Thursday continue, only this time our signal has fallen back to neutral.  I doubt that any real rally other than some evening out of positions would occur on Friday as Mondays generally follow Friday's lead. And Fridays do not do well in bear markets.  But the string is pulled very taunt and this market will snap higher, if not Friday then probably sometime early next week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 16, 2008

Current position 75% Long Rydex OTC 2x, 25% money market for Thursday.  After a nasty morning drop the markets recovered, then slipped back some in the late afternoon, leaving us with a strong signal for Thursday.  We doubled our long position to 75%. The markets are very oversold, and in a nice position to go higher.  With about 100 similar cases over the past 15 years about 80% resulted in an upturn. This type of of situation brings with it a strong probability of a rally on Thursday, small probability of a carryover into Friday and a fair chance that Tuesday will be lower (Markets closed on Monday). It is not very likely that we have seen a bottom that will last more than a few days. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 15, 2008

Current position 37% long Rydex OTC 2x, 63% money market for Wednesday.  We reduced our exposure down to 37% as our signal remained a weak long.  Bleak outlook judging by the aftermarket, we have the S&P down just under 1% with the NDX down over 2%.  This is extreme aftermarket behavior and the Fed may step in tomorrow if the carnage continues. Unlike 1987 and 2000 the markets are not overvalued from a price/earnings/interest point of view.  Actually even a moderate drop will trigger a buy signal from that perspective. So we are at the other end of the stick. The problem is fear about the earnings going forward. CitiGroup took an 18 billion dollar write down and the stock dropped 7.3%. Not that much of a drop in the stock price and the 18 billion is probably not the last write down, as it is still early in the cycle. The India market (IFN), which I just mentioned on Friday as holding up, took a beating today and dropped 5.9%. Our T-Index also slipped closing at +28.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 14, 2008

Current position 50% long Rydex OTC 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday.  Strong day in the markets pushed the S&P above the 1411 mark which acted as sort of a triple bottom for the chartists. Normally it is a good bet to go short on a Tuesday if Monday shows a gain, but this time the market had already been in a steep decline going into Monday so I believe there will be positive carryover instead.  If the rally does hold up on Tuesday we could see it stretch into Thursday but in a bear market I would not expect it to hold up on Friday.  We added a small amount to our position bringing it up to 50%. The T-Index slipped a bit to +34.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 11, 2008

Current position 37% long Rydex OTC 2x, 63% money market for Monday. We managed to stay positive for 2008 after a tricky week.  We are now partially long for Monday, holding back because our long signal was a bit shaky near the close. Mostly missed by the news media, Moody's credit rating service cautioned that United States Notes could be subject to a lower than AAA rating if steps are not taken to reform long term problems such as Medicare and Social Security. No mention of the $200+ billion a year drained by the war effort.  Friday's closing indices closed above Tuesday's closing low after hitting a new intraday low. It looks like another small rally could take hold with a continuation to mid-week.  NDX now off 14.6% from the Halloween high, (FXI) China Index is off 21% and the (EEM) emerging market index is off about 11%. Looks like we are in a bear market, if so, there will be a lot more of a drop ahead. One bright spot, (IFN) India Fund, is up 8.6% over the same time frame. I have updated my long term forecast today to include a forecast through April.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 10, 2008

Current position Short: 50% Inverse OTC 2x, 50% money market for Friday. Our signal strength continues to slip, moving our signal mildly negative. Bernanke's comments indicate that a rate cut is in order, but the rates on the 90 day bill and 10 year notes moved higher anyway. Rate cuts won't save the economy, the Fed had its chance to protect the markets three years ago by stopping 100% mortgages, teaser rates, and setting higher standards for loans.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 9, 2008

Current position  87% money market, Long 13% Rydex OTC 2x for Thursday.  The sharp rebound drained most of the strength out of our "long" signal and left it just slightly to the positive side. We reduced our exposure accordingly.  With bear market tendencies this rally is not expected to last very long. Good chance that this rally will start to fail later in the day or on Friday. I was surprised at the Clinton victory in New Hampshire but since the markets look more favorably on her candidacy we should not be surprised that Wednesday's rally, which was waiting to happen, finally took place. T-Index closed at +32.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 8, 2008  

Current position 50% long Rydex OTC 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.  After some promising up-side early in the day the markets fell apart. We have a very strong up signal, and it has gained strength,  but I reduced our exposure to adjust for increased volatility and to make sure we haven't missed something in this 8 day running slide. (Just basic caution.) I believe the Elections are taking a toll on this market along with the bleak recent news items like the rumor of Countrywide going bankrupt. We are also seeing Standard and Poors adjust estimated earnings lower for the S&P 500. However the index is falling more rapidly than the downward earnings adjustments. Our T-Index closed at +31.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 7, 2008 

Current position 100% long Rydex OTC 2x,  for Tuesday.  Monday's double drop and recovery bodes well for Tuesday's market. The NDX is now down over 8.5% for the past seven days.  Our signal remains strong and we have moved 100% long.  I expect a small rally here that may last for a couple of days then, perhaps some sideways movement, then a resumption of the decline.  Of course we will still go one day at a time for our trading.  Although we are overall negative over the next approximately six weeks there could easily be some government intervention that props up the market dramatically for a few days. Read our recently posted long term comments.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 4, 2008 

Current position 75% long Rydex OTC 2x, 25% money market for Monday.  I believe that the Obama win, or even more likely, the Clinton drop to 3rd place in Iowa was a large contributor to the Stock market plunge on Friday. Once the job report looked bleak, investors threw in a lot of other worries.  Clinton would have been the corporate favorite, while Obama seems to be marching in a less known direction, and the market does not like uncertainty.  What ever happened it fit right in with our long term forecast published last weekend. I see more rough going ahead, but there should be a small recovery on Monday. The NDX is already down 5.8% for the year and that only accounts for 3 trading days.  T-Index is holding and closed at +36. Buckle up, we may be going on a wild ride. I added a few more comments today to the long term comments, so please take another look.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 3, 2008

Current position 100% money market for Friday.  The market seems to be having a hard time going higher and no wonder with oil bouncing off of $100, gold hitting new highs and the dollar falling.  Back in the 50's the saying was, "What's good for General Motors is good for America."  That may have been true for a while, but it appears that what is good for Corporate America is no longer good for the American people. With corporations earning more money from overseas sales to the benefit of the corporate elite, the average US worker is getting left behind.  With the Iowa caucus starting off the election season this is something to think about.  As investors we may have to choose between a strong stock market or a strong American population.  Where are you Joe DiMaggio?   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 2, 2008

Current position 100% money market for Thursday.  Nice start to the year for us, being short on Wednesday.  For Thursday we had a money market signal all day that switched to long at the close, too late for us to react.  So most likely the markets will be leaning higher on Thursday as investors look forward to another rate cut.  But I am not convinced that any rally in here will hold for long.  Our T-Index is rapidly dropping (closing at +34) and oil hit $100 a barrel, good reasons for investors to be cautious longer term.  A new long term forecast was posted this past weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 1, 2008

Current position Short: 50% Inverse OTC 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Glad to be through with 2007, a down year for us. Happy new year! Modifications made to the program late in the year look very promising as we showed a gain in December. I have great expectations for 2008.  Tax selling may continue into the new year for a few days with investors unloading some of their profitable holdings expecting the worst, while some beat-up shares may show some up-ticks.  A new long term forecast was posted this past weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2007 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2007 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2004 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2004

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2001

For earlier comments made early in year 2001

For earlier comments made in year 2000

Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil