Daily Market Commentary  (and next day's position.)

Comments:  December 30, 2016*late posting

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex RUT 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex RUT 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex RUT 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% money market.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex RUT 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50%  Rydex Inverse RUT 2x Fund.  We have added another program to our group it is the Anticipatory trend program. A link to a description of the Anticipatory trend is on our sidebar as well as a program description in our investment programs link.  Our programs are based on the long term tendencies of investors and traders to respond to certain stimulus. On occasion other outside stimulus can become more important for a short period of time. 2016 saw two such events. The first was the combined Brexit and Oil price plunge to the $30 level which skewed normal behavior for the first six weeks of the year and the second was the election of Donald Trump skewing the normal behavior for about a month after the election.  Luckily people generally behave in a normal rather than abnormal manner which has provided us with excellent long term results.  I reduced our exposure but remain long overall. The last few days of the year bring additional influences as portfolio adjustments add to the mix.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 29, 2016

Current position for Friday:   High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund, all other programs are in the money market.   Rather dead market not much to go on.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 28, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% money market.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  I reduced our exposure but remain long. The last few days of the year bring additional influences as portfolio adjustments add to the mix.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 27, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex S&P500 1x fund.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  Our Market Structure level continues to slide lower. We should expect more upside as this happens and volatility remains low. This could easily kick the Dow to the 20000 level by the end of the year.  When the level gets close to the bottom if will become more difficult to make further upside progress.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 23, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex S&P500 1x fund.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  Our Market Structure level slipped another step below neutral.  The volatility is exceptionally low holding the market up. We have a strong long signal for Tuesday.  Happy holidays. Mr. Trump's comments on escalating the arms race did not seem to have any market effect.  Perhaps investors are starting to ignore his remarks.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 22, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse S&P500 1x fund.  High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  We have moved fully short.  The last few days have had very small daily changes and we missed every one of them. The Dow should make  another attempt at 20000 this or next week. Our Market Structure level remains one step below the transition area.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 21, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% money market.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  Nothing has changed, we are holding our small long position.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 20, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% money market.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  All eyes are on the Dow getting ever closer to 20000, but what then?  My eyes are focused on our Market Structure level, now just one notch below the transition zone. If it gets there, there is a very high probability that the markets will take off with more gusto.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 19, 2016 *(late posting)

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  Our signal became less negative so we reduced our exposure but remain on the short side.  I expect some year end influences to come into play these next two weeks.  We also have very low volatility and some Trump after-effects that might cause some interference.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 16, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse S&P500 1x fund.  High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  We have moved fully short as this past week indicated a a more responsive market for our signals.  The volatility moved lower so the expectations are for a sluggish extension of the rally going into the end of the year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 15, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is  Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse S&P500 1x fund.  High Exposure program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  Like we had two days ago we have a strong short signal with the volatility remaining relatively low and the the Trump effect seemingly still hanging on and should take the Dow to 20,000.  I once again will follow our signal but have trimmed the exposure to the downside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 14, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% money market.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  I was glad to see the drop support our position for Wednesday and to see the market behaving in a more normal manner for another week.  I am much less optimistic than the Fed on the economy as it is unlikely that manufacturing jobs will return without imposing major tariffs.  The proposed tax schedule will hurt the poorest people who are the ones that would help the economy by spending every tax dollar they would collect if they got a tax break. Trickle down does not work in a broken economy.  It hardly worked when we still had most of our manufacturing jobs. It will only make the multinational corporations and their executives  richer.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 13, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is  Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse S&P500 1x fund.  High Exposure program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  We have a strong short signal but with the volatility remaining relatively low the the Trump effect seemingly still hanging on I have trimmed the exposure to the downside.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 12, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex S&P500 1x fund.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  Our Market Structure level is holding below neutral. The Dow continues to rally as the other indices pause. Volatility remains low so our expectation is for a slightly upward sloping trading range. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 9, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% money market.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  Market is exceptionally strong, this upside may continue as the volatility remains low.    Our Market Structure level is climbing and could possibly go positive over the next week or two which would normally bring even more up-side to the market. Most often it gets close to neutral and turns back down. Which would keep the market in a more flat trading range. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 8, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% money market.  High Exposure program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  We have switched to the dark side for Friday. The market seems more aligned with our forecasts this week as we have gotten farther away from the election and the more normal market drivers are becoming more influential.  Volatility remains low.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 7, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% money market.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  Holding our long position another day.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments:  December 6, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% money market.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   The markets had a small up-move on Tuesday We remain mildly positive for Wednesday and have moved back into the markets using the S&P 500.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 5, 2016

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market.   Our overall signal turned flat. The past two days have showed some promise that the markets are slowly moving back to normal. Tuesday's probabilities are leaning lower.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 3, 2016

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market.   The NDX closed slightly higher,  I am investigating the current market behavior and continuing to use caution,  we remain in the money market another day.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 1, 2016

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market.   Using caution under these current abnormal conditions for the NDX we remain in the money market another day although the probabilities look positive for Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 30, 2016

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% money market.   Under normal conditions the NDX and S&P move in the same direction with the NDX having more volatility.  Ever since the election the NDX has not moved as closely  with the S&P.  Our program has to a certain degree continued to reflect the S&P movements but the NDX has gone astray and since split markets are much more difficult to define we will step away for a few days. For wash sale purposes we normally move to the S&P in January but we might move there in December instead while this market regroups.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 29, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% money market.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   The markets had a small up-move on Tuesday We remain mildly positive for Wednesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 28, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% money market.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   The Trump election effect has gone on for three weeks and I am looking for a resumption of normality this week. This may not mean a pullback as volatility remains low.  We are mildly positive for Tuesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 25, 2016 late posting

Current position for Monday: New High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  All other programs 100% money market.   Holding our position into Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 23, 2016

Current position for Friday: New High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  All other programs 100% money market.  Strange split market behavior continues with the NDX down and the other indices up. We have moved to the money market with the exception of our latest high volatility program.  Happy Thanksgiving. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 22, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We left the dark side for a long position as our signal changed sides. The market is currently out of sync with long term behavior as we measure it, but that should hopefully change soon as it rarely stays astray for very long.  In terms of fundamentals a strong dollar hurts the multinationals. Oil prices generally fall when fear of a new large seller come on board (USA) or the dollar gains.  A jump in interest rates which hurts the housing market usually sends the stock market lower.  For the near term suddenly none of these thing seem to apply.  So far very strange.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 21, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Strong market Monday much more than was expected kicking up the volatility a bit. . Our Market Structure is now rapidly climbing which will make way for some "long" signals.   The Trump market has disrupted normal patterns. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 18, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Market fell a little. Our Market Structure climbed another step, volatility starting to slow, unless we see larger moves this market should rally again soon. We are holding our position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 17, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   The Market Structure climbed again, volatility still only moderate, not yet seeing expected resistance. We will hold our position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 16, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   The volatility has increased to the point where we are now getting short signals.  Higher levels of volatility make for easier to read signals, more frequent trades  and higher returns, though since we have a statistical approach short term results do not follow a straight line,  The Market Structure stepped off the lowest rung and as it climbs it should run into strong resistance sending the market flat or lower depending on the level of volatility.  Large moves, in either direction, over the next few days could indicate the start of a larger correction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 15, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% money market.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   We are having a bit of a rough time these past two weeks but I expect it to move back in sync with normality very soon as there are no observed extra strong actual outside influences to contend with.  Market Structure remains at the lowest level and is sliding along the bottom. Volatility is increasing and is close to the median 20 year historical level.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 14, 2016

Current position for Tuesday: New High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  All other programs 100% money market.  Strange split market behavior continues.  The NDX fell over 1% while the RUT gained over 1% and made a new all time high.  See our latest long term forecast just posted today.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 11, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Glad to see the week come to a close.  The elections are now past us and it is time for another long term forecast.  This market seems to be squeezing every last bit of upside that it can.  I don't see very much more ahead and will discuss that in the next long term update this weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 10, 2016

Current position for Friday: New High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  All other programs 100% money market.  Strange split market behavior, our NDX fell over 1.6% while all other indexes that we follow gained.  Our probabilities reflect conditions based on our Primary model and do not represent our high exposure model which may show dramatically different probabilities since the included data is different.  Our Market Structure level remains unchanged.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 9, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  New High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The NDX fell over 5% last night triggering the circuit breakers and preventing it from going down lower. Then Trump made a statesman's acceptance speech, calming the markets and actually sending them higher.  Investors want to believe. I moved fully long for Thursday as the Vix has retreated and our volatility reading never even reached average.  Our outlook has not changed and I will still step through this one day at a time. I have replaced our Volatility based program with a new program that is always leveraged when in the market, and is in the market most of the time (High Exposure).  A full description will be on our investment programs page.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 8, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Markets closed higher but pulled back from earlier, larger gains telling us that there should be more room to climb on Wednesday.  Our trading position reflects the last day of our reduced exposure.  Possible action tomorrow if Hillary wins should include money flowing out of the market after the strong two day recovery and money flowing into the market from traders that reduced their market prior to the elections. If Donald wins the market should tank hard. Our Market Structure level is crawling along the very bottom of its range.  This should keep any near term gains small.  Volatility remains below the average and median levels.  With the election over I expect to see the market wander outside its current tight range over the next month. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 7, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  The string of down days ended at nine.  Monday's big rally was relief over closure of the FBI's second Clinton email probe and jump in Hillary's position in the polls.  For the next two days the market will be overshadowed by the election and we will remain at half our normal exposure.  Our actual trade exposure and position is shown above (as always).  Our signal has become more positive though it is still driven by the election.  The volatility has increased some the past few days but remains well below the long term average and continues positive for the market.  Our Market Structure level has reached its bottom level making continued large gains unlikely as the level climbs back to a more centered level.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 5, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 18.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long:25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market .  Volatility focused program is Closed after 17 months. see below.  We remain in a caution mode reducing all signal exposures by 50%.  Our normal signal for Monday is long without leverage and is now further reduced.  The current market is following the elections and not following normal influences. We take the safe route when we do not have an edge.  Later this week we will replace our volatility program which was terminated Friday with a net gain of only 0.6% over a period of 17 months.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 3, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  This string of down days has reached eight, and with the poll results tightening each day it could very well continue through election day or a day past.  The NDX has not seen more than ten in a row, but this time the daily changes have not been very large which could help the string continue.   We are staying with our limited exposure during this trying period.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 2, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  As the polls tighten Investors are now casually lightening their portfolios in anticipation of a Trump win.  This casual unloading has sent the market down seven days in a row.  Because the election is the driving force behind the markets I do not see the markets returning to normal until after the elections. In January we had investors obsessing about oil now it is Trump, either way under these unnatural conditions it is best to lighten our positions.  With this in mind I have cut our positions by 50% and will keep it cut until after the elections. The web site fivethirtyeight.com keeps a running update of the polls. It currently shows Hillary with 273 electoral votes to Donalds 215. Left out are Florida, North Carolina and Nevada's 50 electoral votes and the states are a toss-up.  We make money by having a small edge based on normal activity, when that edge is overshadowed we need to lower our exposure.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: November 1, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We will hold our long position for a second day.  Most likely Wall street freaked out at the thought of Trump at the wheel and sent the NDX down over 1.5%, but it took back more than half that loss.  If the gap in the polls gets tighter the risk due to poll error goes much higher and we should see more market trouble. The indexes are now down six days in a row and the NDX has fallen 3.23% over this time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 31, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  It is time for an up-day and we have a strong long-signal.  Over the next few days we will introduce our newest and most aggressive program which will replace the current volatility focused program. It will not run counter to our other programs but will expand the time in the market to provide direction for many of the current "out" days that we encounter.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 29, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market..  New Volatility focused program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   The NDX closed down for the week but we managed to make a reasonable gain in all accounts.  We are holding our partial short over the weekend into Monday.  Bits of good and bad news have given the markets a bumpy ride this week but I expect that Monday will mark a short term bottom.  Our Market Structure level gained a step and that might be enough to give the market a small recovery sometime this coming week.  I still do not think the market will be going very far prior to the election. This week we will be replacing our volatility based program with our most advanced and more aggressive program to date.  The volatility program was introduced in early June of 2015 and has gained +5.1% since introduction.  That compares to the S&P's +2.3% the NDX's +8.4% and the RUT's -5.3% over the same time period.  I expect more out of our programs and I believe our newest program will provide that.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 27, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market..  New Volatility focused program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   We have a small short position for Friday.  Our Market Structure Level has moved to two steps above bottom. Short term going forward the up-side will have challenges.  In the aftermarket Google gained but Amazon fell much more bringing down the NDX.  Three down days in a row is a positive sign, but Fridays can be difficult and our signal is negative.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 26, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Volatility focused program is 100% Money market.  Apple's drop accounted for about half the loss in the NDX on Wednesday.  We are holding our partial long a second day.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 25, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Volatility focused program is 100% Money market.  Apple beat on earnings sending the aftermarket 2% higher, then it reversed to 2% lower.  Apple does have a strong influence on the NDX but the aftermarket traders are very emotional and the direction could change again.  We have taken a limited long position.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 24, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  After being long for 14 days (an exceptionally long string for us) we moved into the money market.  Monday was a strong up-day but it looks like it could be a short term market top.  The NDX made an all-time high along with three of our managed programs.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 21, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Our Market Structure level continues to slide along the bottom.  The stock market is showing very little volatility or direction and our signal has been hanging on to the long side.  This turned out to be a good week for our accounts, now up four of the last five weeks.  The cyber "denial of service" attacks on both the East and West coasts Friday could be precursors to major internet attacks on election day.  Just a guess.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 20, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Our Market Structure level is now sliding along the bottom.  We remain fully long as this topping action drags on.  I do not expect much from these markets for the next two and a half weeks. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 19, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Our Market Structure level has reached the bottom.  This usually results in a one day small bump.  With the market volatility so very low we are not looking for much. The last presidential debate is tonight and should not be worth more than a small bump.  Going forward over the next couple of weeks we should see less leveraged "long" positions.  And as we go into the elections my current expectations are for a dull market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 18, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The market had a good day but Tim Kaine gave it a scare talking about Wall Street regulation and the early aftermarket turned a little lower.  We remain long but feel the market is kind of running on fumes. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 17, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We have been long for a number of days which does not happen that often.  The market is in a topping action and so far just holding on.  Volatility continues to fall. NFLX announce good earnings and the stock climbed close to 20% in the aftermarket.  That kind of move should be a big help to the NDX on Tuesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 16, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  With our Market Structure level holding within one step from the lowest level I expect more difficulty trying to go higher later this week, but we are still looking to go higher on Monday. Our two party system would be unstable with three parties but if there were a split (maybe Trump from GOP after the election) then I would expect to also see a split of Democrat progressives from Clinton's mainstream leaving the country with four parties.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 13, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Markets fell for the third day on Thursday.  Interest rates which had risen in anticipation of a Fed hike slipped back lower.  Our Market Structure level has held within one step from the lowest level and we remain fully long for Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 12, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We have returned to a fully long position for Thursday.  The rumors are that Trump is more interested in a Trump news network than the presidency.  It would be positioned to the right of Fox news...  The Fed holding off on raising interest rates, Hillary's more certain path to the presidency along with continued small market moves should hold the market up awhile.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 11, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Volatility focused program is 100% Money market.  Alcoa's miss on earnings and revenue started the market slide on Tuesday.  Sadly we can't predict news, but we can determine the markets most likely direction on light news days and that is why we have done so well over the years.  Yesterday we said we were expecting a top this week and it looks like we saw it on Monday.  The good news is that the volatility kicked up some, which should help our trading going forward later in the week, though that is not encouraging for the direction of the overall markets.  We reduced our exposure for Wednesday. Alcoa's lower earnings refocuses investors on overall earnings which have been slipping the last few quarters in the S&P.  The recent strength in the dollar also hurts the multinationals going forward.  So these old concerns came to the forefront. Meanwhile AAPL stock is gaining due to the massive recall and shipping halt of Samsung's Note mobile phones.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 10, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  A thank you to Donald Trump for Monday's moderate gain. The markets like Hillary's pro-Wall Street positions and will rally whenever her odds improve.  The NDX moved through the 4900 level then closed below it, leaving some room for a retest on Tuesday.  I am not expecting very much. Our Market Structure Level is now only one step below the bottom rung telling us that the market should have a short term top this week as there should be more difficulties for the market once the Market Structure level turns to climb back towards neutral.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 7, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  A second small change losing day. We are holding our long position into Monday. The payroll figures had zero impact on FED fears as the t-bill rate remained unchanged. Bills and bonds will be closed for Columbus day with all else open.  Our Market Structure level continued to drop for the fourth time in four days, but it has barely moved the markets much higher. The elections have not increased the volatility and the markets are locked in a tight range.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 6, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We are holding our long position another day.  I would have preferred that the NDX close positive but the current uptrend should be enough to get us through Friday.  Walmart is shifting its focus from retail stores to on-line.  Fewer store openings are planned.  Stock market volatility continues to shrink keeping market potential low.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 5, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  It appears that Pence won the debate on the likeability scale and Kaine gained on substance.  Based on the stock market's limited gains there were no clear winners.  The small market gains are encouraging for a continuation of the upward direction and our signal remains long and strong.  Our Market Structure Level fell further which should be helpful for tomorrow.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 4, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Vice presidential debate tonight should take most of the investor focus.   Both Pence and Kaine are probably more acceptable presidential candidates for those citizens that remain undecided in this presidential race. And because of that, they may be able to sway some fence sitting voters.  With that in mind any major (not likely) one sided outcome tonight will move the markets tomorrow. Our Market Structure level has resumed its downward tone slipping away from the transition area. This should provide an initial upward push on the markets while extending the longer term negative weight.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: October 3, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market..  New Volatility focused program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   We have a small short position for Tuesday.   Volatility continues to fall hurting reliability and decreasing the number of signals generated. Our Market Structure Level remains one step below the transition zone.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 30, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Our Market Structure Level continues flat within one step of the transition zone.  I would welcome a sharp move in either direction to bring some life into this slow moving market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 29, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  We spent only one day in the market this week and closed with a small gain. Same as last week.  The low volatility has cut down on the number of suitable trades, so we are trading less.  Our Market Structure Level is now within one step of the transition zone, most often it gets turned away and slips lower. If however it gets through the transition zone we would be looking at a longer term rally. I will keep you informed.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 28, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market..  New Volatility focused program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   We have a small short position for Thursday.  The signal is not very strong so the reliability is on the low side.  Volatility is starting to move back into the dull zone.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 27, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  The after-market traders made a good and early call on the outcome of the debate giving Hillary the nod and sending the markets higher. The follow through on Tuesday confirmed it.  We remain neutral but I am expecting a small pullback on Wednesday.  Volatility remains readable and helpful to us.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 26, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  With Hillary the wall street darling slipping in the polls, the first presidential debate is putting pressure on the markets. Watch the debate carefully and keep an eye on the aftermarket but be aware that the aftermarket is generally filled with emotional amateurs. We are in the money market and Tuesday will give us better insight as to what the more knowledgeable investors think, and our program should have better information for a signal.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 23, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Our Market Structure level gained, making gains difficult for Monday. That coupled with the first presidential debate putting uncertainty into the markets could pull money out of the markets.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 22, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% in the money market. New NDX all time highs were made but it still looks like a topping pattern.  We have pulled back into the money market content with Thursday's gain.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 21, 2016 (late post)

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money Market.  New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The Fed held rates and the market jumped.  We took a partial long position in line with our signal for Thursday.  The 1% gain in the NDX will help increase the volatility level making the market more readable.  Past pension creation errors are starting to cause major problems in corporations and even more important in the public sector. These problems must be addressed quickly as the sanctioned returns can't be met by 1.7% government bond yields and the shortfall grows every year.  The smaller pensions must be protected.  They need to start slicing from the top.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 20, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Again we have most of our components leaning to the upside but our signal is flat.  The FED clearly wants to raise rates. Almost every arm-chair economist knows that the economy is not overheated as we remain in a deflationary mode. The FED does want to get the rates higher to provide some relief to the banks and Wednesday would be an excellent time to do it as stock indexes are very close to all time highs, TBill rates have pulled back from their recent  highs and volatility remains relatively low.. The markets are in a good position to take a rate hike punch right now, even if it does not make economic sense.  On the other hand the recent market behavior (climbing to near all time highs) tells us that the FED will probably do nothing. I don't even have a guess.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 19, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Early in the day the NDX made a new intra day all time high but could not hold on. The NDX fell by nearly 1/2% as the other indices either gained or closed flat. Most of our components are positive for Tuesday but our signal is holding flat.  I will wait for a stronger signal.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 16, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% in the money market. Our Primary program's gain of about 5% this week gave us our best week since last October. Today's mostly unchanged NDX cuts down on the volatility but there should be enough left to help us out near term.  I am not expecting very much "free range" on the upside this week and if the volatility shrinks the downside would also be capped.  For now the downside looks more promising as the Market Structure Level is very negative and the volatility is above the minimum needed for shorting.   I  posted an updated longer term stock market  forecast last week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 15, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Strong day Thursday  helped increase the volatility, which increases our potential for making money. The signal for Friday remains long but our probabilities have contracted somewhat.  I expect that Friday's NDX range will be between the recent intraday high of 4839 and the "even" 4800 mark.  Our "Primary", "Long only", and "Conservative Retirement" programs are now all positive for the year.  Our Market Structure level has retreated and is a only two steps away from the low point which tells me that the upside is limited over the next few weeks.   I  posted an updated longer term stock market  forecast last week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 14, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The NDX was boosted by  AAPL while the other indices slipped.  We have gone fully long for Thursday but the weekend could bring more selling.  Volatility slowed some on Wednesday.   I  posted an updated longer term stock market  forecast last week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 13, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market. Volatility continues to climb but remains below average levels.  Normally low volatility adds a positive trend to the markets and under normal conditions we would be long for Wednesday as the market forces are positive. The current jolt of higher volatility under these low volatility conditions makes the call more difficult and did not provide a strong enough signal to move long so we remain in the money market another day.  These few days of higher volatility should be helpful to us and provide us with more frequent high probability signals going forward assuming that the market does not slip back to its dull ways. The level has gone high enough to entertain short positions where appropriate, which were very limited under the super low recent levels.  The past eight months have reflected low volatility but we have been able to show positive results over that time period as the program has learned to live with dull markets.    I  posted an updated longer term stock market  forecast last week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 12, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market. Good call for our clients after spending the whole first part of the month in the money market.  I do not expect this to carry over into Tuesday so we moved back to safety.  Not being in the market when there is no clear direction can be as important as trading with the probabilities. (We saw this on Friday.).  Our Market Structure level climbed today which should keep the lid on any additional gains on Tuesday. Volatility is improving.   I  posted an updated longer term stock market  forecast last week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 9, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Normally when the market plunges on a Friday it carries over into Monday.  This time we have a strong buy signal and have gone long.  In addition the NDX closed on the low of the day indicating a strong over-sold mentality.  It was good to see an increase in volatility,   and it should help our trading if it continues. (Note my comments  made last Friday Sept 2, regarding the next few market weeks.)  In the news 5,300 Wells Fargo employees were fired over the creation of over two million fake accounts.  Poorly designed incentives along with a lack of ethics which starts from the top and sets the tone for the company are to blame. With thousands of employees involved, how  many other banks to follow?  Check our long term forecast  I  posted an updated longer term stock market  forecast earlier in the week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 8, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.    Negative pressure continues on the NDX going into Friday.  Weekends bring more uncertainty and in less than stellar markets tend to send markets lower.  Laws passed in Los Angeles, Florida and New York this summer will slow down high end real estate sales in these areas.  These markets should see repercussions as the ripples start to hit the less expensive homes and slow the growth seen over the past few years.  I posted an updated longer term stock market  forecast yesterday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 7, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.   This is our fifth consecutive money market day, reflecting the overall lack of market movement. With nothing happening in the near term I focused on the longer term and posted an updated longer term view today.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 6, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.   Our Market Structure level is telling us that the next three weeks will be difficult for the market, however the daily changes remain so low that the market is not showing worry and could just as well slip slightly higher. The NDX closed on the high of the day an indication of excessive optimism.  We remain on the side lines. The fall generally causes an increase  in volatility as vacations end. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 2, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Our Market Structure level has reached its lowest point and that should mean overhead resistance for the next three weeks starting on Wednesday.  With the daily changes about 1/4 of normal size this should not mean much to the market. Friday employment figures came in at a sweet spot, too low for the Fed to force an immediate rate hike and too high to say the economy is collapsing. This gave the market a small boost that could carry over into Tuesday, But our signal remains neutral so we wait.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: September 1, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  These small daily changes limit the total return available under every type of investment strategy. If the total possible return is small the actual return, buy and hold or active can only be smaller.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 31, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Another small drop in the NDX.  The volatility is now only a touch above the lowest recorded in the past 23 years.  Our Market Structure level stepped lower again but did not trigger a "buy" so we moved to the money market. Anticipatory trend is positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 30, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The EU request for back taxes from AAPL sent a shock wave through Tech investors but it probably will not amount to much AAPL already has ten time the $14.5Bil on hand. And it will take years to get resolved.  Another step down in our Market Structure keeps the positive short term pressure on the market.  We remain fully long.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 29, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Small change up day should continue into Tuesday as our Market Structure level continued to fall.  If we do not have more negative news the NDX could test the recent high of 4827 this week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 26, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The Fed continued to talk about raising rates but Tbills did not react and stayed the same.  Our Market Structure level dipped back down as expected, opening the door for another up-day after this small down week  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 25, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Small drop in line with the very small moves of the past few weeks.  Our Market Structure level has climbed to within a single step of the transition area which would lead to a positive long term attitude.  We will have to see if that happens, as we often see the Market Structure level snap lower from this current level.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 24, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Our "day specific" probabilities are somewhat negative indicating that there could be some negative carryover for the market on Thursday, our signal however remains neutral.  Wednesday's small drop took out the last two weeks of even smaller gains.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 23, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Small bounce Tuesday based on strong housing and 1% gain in oil.  It is easier for news to over run the predisposed market direction when the daily changes are small which is why we do not go short very often during slow markets.  Our Market Structure level climbed again bringing it closer to the transition area.  Should it continue and go well into the positive area it would be very good for stocks.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 22, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market..  New Volatility focused program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   The Market Structure level climbed but remains short of the transition area. The volatility continues to shrink and we try to avoid going short under very low small change conditions, however a few cases do have merit.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: August 19, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  The market closed slightly lower and we stayed in the money market.  The more the market slows down the smaller the movements and the smaller both profits or losses.  It is what it is.  During this boring period I have been studying the effects of volume on market movement.  I never found it to be predictive in the past but with some of my non-traditional approaches it has yielded results that are similar to the volatility results of the past year.  Low volume like lower volatility tends to be found in up-markets while larger volume as well as larger volatility is found in markets that are as likely to go lower as they are to go higher.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 18, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  The market closed slightly higher and we moved into the money market.  The volatility continues near the lowest 2% of observed volatility over the past 20 years.  Market Structure level has taken a step higher but remains low.  Very dull market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 17, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The topping action continues. We have moved back to a leveraged "long" position for Thursday.  Market Structure level fell providing some support for an up day on Thursday if the news does not swamp it.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 16, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  The market pulled back Tuesday giving up Monday's gains and a bit more.  We moved into the money market.  The volatility is currently near the lowest 2% of observed volatility over the past 20 years.  Market Structure level has taken a step higher but remains low.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 15, 2016 *late post

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The topping action continues.  Held long position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 12, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The topping action continues. We have moved back to a leveraged "long" position for Monday.  Our Anticipatory trend is up. Small daily changes do not stir up much investor emotion, making those markets harder to read, but the small moves keep fear at a minimum, and tend to go along with slow moving positive markets.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 11, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  We closed our week a day early and moved into the money market.  Our slightly negative signal is offset by the low volatility.  Election years generally carry a higher volatility level so there should be some increase in volatility going into the fall. Our Market Structure level has climbed but remains very negative and as it goes closer to neutral it tends to dampen market enthusiasm.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 10, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Another market pullback Wednesday and we have moved to strong long position. Looks like topping action.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 9, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  After four days of being long and leveraged we have moved to the money market. The market is pretty much extended and should not have much energy left to push higher. We are going to wait for a better opportunity. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 8, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The markets had a very small pull back and we continue to have a strong long signal. Both long term and short term interest rates remain near bottom levels.  Our Anticipatory trend continues to look for more up-side. The small moves generally lead to more small positive moves and that should allow a bit more to be squeezed out of this market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 5, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We are holding our long position into into Monday. Four days is a long time for us to hold a long and leveraged position, but so far it is paying off and the signal has gotten stronger.  The volatility remains very low and today's one percent gain in the NDX did not do very much to raise it.  Our Market Structure level fell two steps and is now close to the bottom level. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 4, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We continue to hold our long position into Friday.  The drop-off in volatility since Brexit has been significant and that should start to pick up this month.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 3, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We are holding our long position into Thursday. The Dow Jones average is having some trouble here, but the NDX is not.  Changes remain small keeping the volatility in the lowest 5% level in over 20 years of data.  The market does tend to have a greater percentage of up days under these conditions, as investors feel safer with slower moving markets. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 2, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  After three days in the money market we have moved to a fully "long" position.  The market is poised for an up-day based on internal market actions but with the recent low volatility and oil dipping below $40 the oil price influence could be more dominant.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 1, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  The NDX reached a closing high but is still below the intraday maximum it hit sixteen years ago in March of 2000. That was 4816 and today's close remains 1.25% below.  The market continues to move slowly and at this rate should eclipse  that interday high very soon.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 29, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  We had a good July but were only in the market about 40% of the time.  Under low volatility conditions, like we currently are experiencing, business related news can have a greater impact on direction, as the market's predisposed tendencies are not particularly strong.  Yesterday GOOG and AMZN had strong earnings helping the NDX even as the US GDP numbers were lower than expected.  Our probabilities look mildly positive for Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 28, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  We closed our week early with two good gains. The market continues to pursue a low volatility path coupled with very low interest rates, this has enabled the market to show gains in light of declining revenues.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 27, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   We are holding our fully long position. Our Market Structure level stepped lower a good short term sign.  Market Volatility is at a very low level and that does not help the reliability of our readings. We were helped today by Apple's very poor, but not as poor as expected, earnings which caused AAPL to jump 6.5% giving the NDX a boost.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 26, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  After four days in the money market we have moved to a fully "long" position.  Recent market action has given way to a strong positive indicator but not a long term one.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 25, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Monday was unchanged with just a touch of down. The sample size for unchanged days is small but we see some negative probabilities.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 22, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  The low volatility up-trend continues,  Market could always get a surprise, but it seems to have digested the Trump campaign with out a hiccup.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 21, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  We remain in the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 20, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Low volatility up-trends like this one can be very resistant to down turns but we will still avoid the neutral days. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 19, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We have held out partial long position for Wednesday.  Volatility is low and that hurts reliability but usuall helps keep the market from any large drops.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 18, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We have taken a partial long position for Tuesday.  Our Anticipatory trend is long and Ten year notes remain close to  their historic lows. Volatility is low.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 16, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Terrorism and election news add to the current market influences.  We remain neutral.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 14, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Investors seem content to ride the wave of low interest rates and moderate volatility. Volatility has now fallen below that comfort range and some weakness should arrive as the weekend influences add some concern.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 13, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Sharp but mild drop at the close for the NDX.  Although low volatility is positive for the market and higher volatility is more random for the market, during times of low interest rates higher volatility is beneficial, and those are the conditions that have recently carried the market higher.  With volatility now falling we might see some light weakness by Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 12, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We have moved to a fully "long" position.  The market is in a steady uptrend watch the ten year bonds for any sign of an increase above 2%  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 11, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  With the S&P making new highs and S&P earnings headed lower for the fifth straight quarter one has to wonder what is going on.  With calm markets and exceptionally low interest rates the assumption is that the future will be better than the recent past.  Interest rates are so low that earnings yield compares very well to tbills, providing at least in theory, a reason to hang on to securities. So it is complex and so far this reasoning has held up pretty well. But without earnings growth I can't see much upside unless it is a blow off.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 8, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Our signal for Monday is neutral but leaning higher.  Normally Mondays follow in Friday's direction so there may be some upside carry over. Our Market Structure level remains negative and is holding near the transition zone that is the start of the positive area.  Both the Vix and volatility remain in a safe range for ongoing upside.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 7, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We have taken a partial long position for Friday.  Ten year notes moved slightly above their historic lows.  Quiet market spent the day hovering around flat.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 6, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Thursday's market indication is negative but today's overall market conditions have reduced the reliability of that forecast and we have moved into the money market. Our Market Structure level has climbed but continues to remain negative.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 5, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We have moved to a fully "long" position.  Our Market Structure level moved lower.  Real volatility, as we measure it, has climbed as the Vix fell.  Interest rates on government ten year notes have fallen to the lowest level on record.  When yields go down it means that borrowing for projects has dried up. People, corporations and governments do not see any better place to invest their money than in US bonds. Although low interest rates are conducive to investment and beneficial to the stock market.  Having the long term rates at such low levels has some very negative connotations for the longer term.  This program is not static.  Over time some of the inputs will reach new levels not seen before and at that time we need to adjust for the newest data while making sure that the program would continue to work using past data. Last week we had such a case with out short trades.  I have uncovered the cause and made the appropriate improvements.  We find very few problems like this with our program because it has be functioning for many years and constantly monitored.  Since it is constantly monitored we are able to resolve these issues.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 1, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We had a bad week and in reviewing over 20 years of data I believe it was more of a random event than an ongoing problem.  I will be looking for suitable conditions to reduce exposure on some short trades.  Have a safe 4th. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 30, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  New Volatility focused program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   I don't know the reason behind the past two up-days but a look at our past performance shows this type of ding is not out of line with our history.  Oil is not the driver and I did not uncover any specific news from Europe.  We will ride it out. The Market Structue level is gaining but still short of the transition area.  .Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 29, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  New Volatility focused program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Another big up day came as a surprise and disappointment.  We continue to look for a down turn.  The markets appear to be following the European market lead.  The aftermarket continued higher so we are sailing against the wind.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 28, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Big up-day retracing Monday's ride down with a little extra.  We have a strong signal for the down side for Wednesday, it is not intuitive, but the signal strength is very negative and I am not seeing any reason for more up-side.  Our Market Structure level climbed but remains very negative and the volatility is in a range where the downward trends are more possible but still not severe.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 27, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  We caught Monday's drop and moved fully into the money market.  Normally a strong drop on Monday gets a rebound on Tuesday but I am seeing only about a fifty percent probability so it is best to wait.  Volatility has kicked up making it easier for more downside action.  Most likely we will see both higher and lower closes this week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 24, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  100% Money market.  New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   The Brexit surprise took the NDX down more than -4% on Friday.  With two years to unwind, the British still using the pound, and the fact that there was life prior to the EU I don't believe we will see much change on our shores.  However, and this is a big "however", this could just be the catalyst that the market players were looking for to unload stocks.  Our Market Structure has been in a negative mode since January 14 of this year.  Janet Yellen, in her haste to stay away from negative interest rates, has raised rates into a slipping economy, confusing investors and putting traders more on edge.  I believe that only the low level of volatility has kept the markets from a full plunge.  Now that low level of volatility has had a major jolt and if it continues it will feed on itself.  In that case we saw the market top last November and we are headed lower. Otherwise the dull flat trending will continue. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: June 23, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Brexit gave our longs a lot of help on Thursday.  Expectations for Friday are for an early positive carryover but a coin toss for later.  Will they sell on the news?  We have reduced our exposure and are maintaining a small position in all but our most conservative program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: June 22, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We are holding our long position yet another day.  Wednesday's small pullback should help the market to attempt another day higher.  Brexit vote may cause some problems. Overall looks positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: June 21, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We are holding our long position another day.  Our Market Structure level is just a step above its most negative position and its behavior is indicating that there is probably not much left to this rally beyond the next one or two days. The low volatility should help buffer any down side that comes after that.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: June 20, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Monday the market gapped open on the assumption that the UK will remain in the EU,  Mid day the market pulled back and that small correction may be all it needs to continue higher short term.  We do not analyze the news or make predictions on news. We can only read the investor's reaction to news and use that as part of our analysis. Volatility remains low, a positive for the markets.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: June 17, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  The good side to Fridays move was that it will increase the low volatility somewhat giving us stronger readings.  For now we have moved to the money markets....      Though there is much that I don't know about why Microsoft purchased Linkedin, on the surface I would think that Microsoft would have been better building their own platform and bundling it with Office.  $26 Billion is a lot of money when you consider that FaceBook will most certainly expand into the professional area and dominate it.  Facebook has the base and all they need is a link, some good press and the purchase of some major high end head hunter.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 16, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The  low volatility gloom continues.  Good recovery from a sharp morning drop, but it did not add much to those small change days of the past few weeks.  We have a small positive and have taken a small position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 15, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  The markets pulled back during the last half hour of trading.  The world economic outlook is bleak and no matter how much Janet Yellen says things are great they just aren't.  The Shanghai index has lost 45% in the past twelve months. Interest rates in other countries are turning negative.  Need any more hints?  On a positive note, real volatility remains in the bottom area and that alone can keep this market from a deep dive.  No movement, no fear.  Could see a little buying tomorrow but we only have a money market signal and have moved to the side lines. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 14, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  It has been about three weeks since we had a full strength "buy" signal like this one.  Lack of volatility takes its toll on the frequency of strong signals.  Though the real volatility is low the VIX has climbed, and the combination is usually positive for the market.  Our Market Structure level stepped lower, Anticipatory trend is positive.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 13, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Real volatility remains exceptionally low. (Not the VIX)  By our measure 98% of the time over the past 23 years the volatility has been higher.  As the volatility flat-lines it leaves little to judge direction.  The market does look ready for a bounce but our Anticipatory trend has turned negative and  we chose to remain on the sidelines one more day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 10, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Friday's drop slightly increased the recent near-nothing current volatility, but it could be a one day thing.   Our Anticipatory trend has turned positive as our Market Structure level took two steps lower.  Neutral signal for Monday   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 9, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Another day without much enthusiasm, leaving our signal and under structure pretty much exactly where they were.  Our Signal is mildly positive, our Anticipatory trend is negative and our Market Structure level remains one step below the transition area.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 8, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Very slow moving market. Small daily change type markets generally go higher, not enough change to generate much emotion but generally safe enough to ride. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 7, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Early gains eroded by late afternoon, but nothing has changed looking for the NDX to go higher.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 6, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Good chance for another up-day on Tuesday.  This market is straining to go higher under negative conditions.  Our Market Structure level is holding steady one step below the transition area.  Last week I was expecting that the next large move would be down, this week it is starting to look like the market could continue to go higher.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 3, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The jobs report was very bad.  This will haunt the market. With about 125,000 jobs a month needed  to be added to account for gains in participating population the 38,000 May job growth number is a disaster. This is a  more important news event than raising or not raising interest rates in June as the current level is low enough that a small change will have little impact.  We are holding our long position into Monday.  Our Market Structure level remains a step below zero.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 2, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The NDX rallied late in the day.  These small market moves means less enthusiasm and emotion making reading the market more difficult as seen by our last three trades.  Program reliability is less during these periods, but over the long term it still produces positive results and so it remain an important part of our program.  The market has held up while our Market Structure Level climbed to one step below the transition area, remaining negative for now.  Our signal remains weak, when the volatility increases we will get improved signal strength and greater reliability.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: June 1, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  100% Money market.  New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   The market seems to be in a topping phase.  Our indicators are looking for more down-side, but the market seems happy to stay put.  I am expecting that it will resolve the issue with a drop, but the initial drop would be only be few days at the most.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 31, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The NDX rallied near the close to turn positive for the day while the other indices remained lower.  Our signal is "long" but not strong.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 27, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   We have gone fully short.  We got the end of day enthusiasm we were calling for in yesterday's comments as the NDX closed at the high for the session, but we were getting a short signal even before that happened. Closing strong on a Friday however, often leads to more strength on Monday. The economy is not as good as Janet Yellen is assuming.  And raising rates from these low levels is not going to help or hurt anything very much.  The original cut in rates from their peaks in 2007 reduced rates so low it was almost  free money for the multinationals to fund expansion in Asia.  This would have been a good thing for the USA but the Multinationals horded their revenue avoiding US taxes. This left  the US holding the low interest bag with nothing to show. The local economies are still suffering.  So the "everything is great according to Yellen" rally should cool off by Tuesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 26, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We have a weak "long" signal.  The market appears to be waiting for some "end of day enthusiasm" to market the end of this rally but so far we are seeing small adjustment pullbacks as the market day comes to a close.  Like yesterday our Anticipatory trend is negative but another small gain seems likely even in the face of a three day weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 25, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.  Our Anticipatory trend has turned negative and there are too many cross currents to take a position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 24, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:   Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund   New Volatility focused program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  All other programs are 100% in the money market.   We logged a large gain "long" on Tuesday but we have cut our exposure and have gone "short"  in three of our programs.  It is a tentative call as our anticipatory trend remains long and our Market Structure level fell closer to the bottom of the negative range.  T-Bill rates have hit a new high since 2008 while the rates on the ten year note continue to decline. Our T-Index remains in a deflationary mode but is becoming less so as the gap between rates on the 90 day bills and ten year notes tighten. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 23, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  It has been about two weeks since we had a full strength "buy" signal like this one. Our Market Structure level has fallen to mid range negative and our anticipatory trend is long.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 20, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.   Our signal flickered between "neutral" and "short" near the close.  We held our more conservative neutral position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 19, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.   This was a week without strong signals in either direction.  Our Market Structure level became more negative indicating to me that it will continue to fall for the near term.  This should help the market hold up for a few more days but is not a good sign longer term.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 18, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Signal turned long without much conviction. The market closed quietly  with the S&P flat and the NDX mildly higher.  The market remains in a low volatility condition which is more conducive to a flat or upward trending market.  Major market drops are accompanied by higher volatility conditions so although our Market Structure level remains negative the low volatility is holding the market up.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 17, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% in the money market.   We have a money market signal for Wednesday.  We are waiting for the market to develop a more compelling reason to take a position where potential gains outweigh the risks.  Our Anticipatory trend is positive while our Market Structure level is holding in the negative area.  Less clear days like this are more easily influenced by the latest news.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 16, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 25% Rydex SPX500 2x fund.  All other programs are 100% in the money market.   We do not have a very strong signal. For Tuesday we have reversed Monday's partial position in our aggressive programs and remained in the money market with the rest.  Our Market Structure Level has climbed sharply from its brush with the bottom and is now within striking distance of moving into the transition zone.  It does not feel right for the level to move "long" but we will watch closely as the path unfolds.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 13, 2016

Current position for Monday:   Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse SPX500 2x fund.  All other programs are 100% in the money market.   We have moved mostly into the money market but maintained a small short position in our most aggressive programs using the inverse S&P Fund.  Many components of our signal remain negative but the signal itself has turned more neutral leading us to greatly reduce our exposure.  The Market Structure level has climbed the past few days but may need to climb higher before any sizeable persisting rally can occur.  We had good gains in our programs this week correctly calling each day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 12, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   The NDX managed to recover more than half its early drop on Thursday.  Friday is the hardest day to forecast as uncertainty about the weekend can change normal market behavior.  The market continues to look weak and we are holding our short position another day.  Our Market Structure level gained on Thursday but remains well into negative territory.  Anticipatory trend is also negative. Negative influence of earlier down days persists.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 11, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   So far the market is moving to plan.  Our probabilities have become more negative for Thursday along with our signal.  We have increased our short position. Our Market Structure level has climbed two steps.  A jump in the level is often followed the next day by a market decline.  I believe that there is more chance that this is a slide down rather than a choppy top.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 10, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  100% Money market    New Volatility focused program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   I believe we have reached a short term top, though it might have some early overrun higher  on Wednesday morning.  We have a short signal, the Market Structure level is one step from the bottom and ripples from earlier down days should add to the push lower. The NDX has reached a nice stopping point at 4400 so I have to look for lower prices.  Unless something special happens we should either get a topping action or a slide into next week.  We will be working this day by day and letting you know what we see.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 9, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Looks like we can squeeze out another up-day on Tuesday and we are holding our position.  By Wednesday there should be additional waves of negativity from the downward turn a few weeks ago to send the markets lower again.  But as always we play it one day at a time. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: May 6, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We continue to hold our long position into Monday.  The Market Structure level has fallen to one step above the bottom.  Though we should see a strong market on Monday there is very little market energy left to propel the market higher beyond that (short term).  This should result in a continuation of the dismal market we have witnessed over the past three weeks. In addition we received a buy signal from our bottom indicator yesterday.  This puts the market near a short term bottom but that could take a week to turn, best guess from all this information is an up day on Monday and then a mostly down week where the volatility should increase.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 5, 2016*late post

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We are holding our position into Friday.  The battle continues between the small daily changes helping the up-side while the negative overall Market Structure looking to bring it down.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 4, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We are holding our position. Wednesday's drop may have been a reflection of the political situation with Trump now looking certain to run against Clinton.  Probably the two least liked candidates ever, but with Clinton pleasing the financial community the market should not worry too much for now.  I am still looking for another up day as our Market Structure level stepped lower Wednesday.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 3, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Once again we have moved back fully long, our anticipatory trend is positive, our Market Structure has fallen lower and volatility remains low. The low volatility is holding up this market and it keeps fear away. The negative Market Structure level would normally be enough for a significant drop.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: May 2, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  100% Money market    New Volatility focused program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   We reversed and trimmed our positions for Tuesday.  Anticipatory trend turned negative. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 29, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We have moved back fully long, our anticipatory trend is positive, our Market Structure has fallen again and volatility remains low. The NDX has fallen nearly 3% this week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 28, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Rydex  Money market.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Thursday the markets turned ugly and reversed direction in the afternoon.  We have reduced our exposure in most programs and remain long overall.  So we will try again, this time with Amazon and Linkedin showing good earnings and double digits gains in the aftermarket.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 27, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We have moved fully long and leveraged.  The Fed has relieved the anxiety of a June rate hike and Facebook reported positive earnings and guidance which sent  it up over 9% in the aftermarket.  It looks like we have the wind at our back for Thursday.  I expect that it might carry a few more days toward the plus side. Our Market Structure level fell away from the transition zone and as it falls it should provide positive help for the market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 26, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  100% Money market    New Volatility focused program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   AAPL announced earnings and revenue that fell below last year and below analysts estimates.  The fall in revenue year over year has been a factor hurting most companies.  This will eventually drive the market lower even though these mega multinationals can continue to cut employees and do the accounting dance keeping their earnings above water.   We can wait it out as we too can dance. I have maintained our partial short position for Wednesday.  Appl was down over 5% in the aftermarket which should bring the NDX down about .5%. Our Market Structure level has held firm and I expect it to fall in the next few days bringing with that drop a temporary market rally.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 25, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  100% Money market    New Volatility focused program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Our Market Structure level has climbed to one step below the transition area.  So the overall sentiment could turn bullish in a few days, but I believe it will turn lower instead.  Neutral days made up about 20% of our trading in our primary program. We are now able to provide directional guidance on almost half of those neutral days and have implemented the addition to our programs.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 22, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All  programs 100% Money Market.  Our Anticipatory trend is short and our Market Structure level is negative and holding.  Google's earnings miss did send the NDX down and a down Friday often carries over into Monday, but we do not have a short signal so we remain in the money market.  Our Market Structure level is now close enough to the zero level to either retreat or jump to the plus side. A turn to the plus side would be very positive for the market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 21, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All  programs 100% Money Market.  Our Anticipatory trend is short and our Market Structure level is negative and climbing.  The recent very low daily changes have created a condition where there is not enough emotion in the market to make a strong, reliable call.  After the close Sears holdings announced the closing of 78 stores driving the stock higher by about +6% and Google missed estimates driving the stock lower by about -5%. Google is a significant component of the NDX and that should cause the NDX to trade lower on Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 20, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  100% Money market    New Volatility focused program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   The NDX has remained flat since Friday.  I was expecting the  Market Structure level to climb and  send the market lower this week, but the relatively low volatility has helped keep the market from falling very far.  We moved our conservative program into the money market and cut our exposure in half on the others.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 19, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund .    New Volatility focused program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   The markets closed mixed with the NDX down over .5% and the other markets mostly higher. For Wednesday have a strong down signal and with the recent improvement of the market tracking our Anticipatory trend I have decided to move back to normal trading which includes using leverage when warranted.  It could be a bumpy start but longer term it should work out well. The EU continues to attack Google and Intel announced the layoff of 12,000 employees about 11% of its workforce. The banks are cutting pay to maintain profitability in the face of reduced revenues. So the bottom line in many large corporations should hold a while longer.  Still with cuts in employment and wages I wonder how long the indexes can hold up as these cuts slow consumer spending, hurt housing and lead to another recession.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 18, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All  programs 100% Money Market.  Our Anticipatory trend is now short, but our main signal remains neutral.  Netflix lowered its guidance and fell in the aftermarket.  This could lead the Tech lower as the NDX has started going lower after hours and we are looking for a down trend this week.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 15, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All  programs 100% Money Market.  Our Anticipatory trend is long, but our main signal is neutral.  The markets matched our signals better last week as earnings did not cause any erratic action.  I still expect to see more down than up days over the next couple of weeks.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 14, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund .    New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   The markets closed flat and our probabilities are leaning heavily to the down side, though the expected amplitudes are small.  No earnings of note after the closing bell. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 13, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We continue to hold our long position as the Market Structure Level takes another step lower.  The level is now deep into negative territory this indicates that the time frame for additional market gains is very limited and the top should be put in within a few days at the most.  Going forward from next week we should see more market negative days than positive ones. Most likely some very negative earnings report will start the market slide.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 12, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Stronger probabilities for Wednesday as our Market Structure level moves lower.  We continue to avoid leverage at this time.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 11, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All  programs 100% Money Market.  Our Anticipatory trend is leaning higher, but other factors are slightly negative. Monday's early rally turned negative by the close.   We are keeping our exposure low while we wait for conditions to improve.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 10, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Back to the long side.  Our Market Structure level has taken a step lower.  Small price movement will be a determent to any strong downside.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 7, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 40% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund .    New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Volatility is somewhat low but has climbed above our do-not-short level and we have taken a leverage free short position.  This 2016 market has been difficult for us but since we utilize over 20 years of data in our forecasting our methodology captures the enduring tendencies rather than the near term focus.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 6, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We increased our long exposure but continue to avoid using leverage. Our Market Structure level has stepped down so I do not expect to see overly strong rallies ahead. We are prepared to jump in with both feet once the conditions are right, but for now we remain cautious.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 5, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Volatility program is Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  All other programs 100% Money Market.  Signal is mostly neutral.  Anticipatory trend is negative.  Market Structure is negative.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: April 4, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All  programs 100% Money Market.  Our signal is leaning lower. It is not strong enough to take a position.  We are keeping our exposure low while we wait for conditions to improve.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: April 2, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We moved back to the long side.  Volatility has increased slightly. Our Anticipatory trend has gone long.  We are trading cautiously.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 31, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All other programs 100% Money Market.  Friday starts a new month and that usually means an up-day.  Fridays however are generally lower.  Our signal, though leaning slightly higher, is not strong enough to take a position.     Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 30, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  All other programs 100% Money Market.  On the surface it appears that the market will ignore the ongoing negative news and continue to make new highs.  I am not in that camp and will continue to move cautiously, one day at a time even if I appear out of sync at the moment.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 29, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  All other programs 100% Money Market.  Janet Yellen has joined the millions of investors who already knew the economy was just limping along and has decided to go slow on rate hikes.  Bad timing for our volatility program as we do not forecast events, only daily internal trends.  Oil fell over 2% showing that the link between the stock market and oil is not active at much above $30.   Market Structure level remains negative.  Overall volatility remains very low.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 28, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  All other programs 100% Money Market.  The market continues to sputter supporting a low volatility condition.  Not much more to say for the present. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 24, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We held our position into the three day weekend.  The volatility remains low which should support the market.  Thursday the market closed mostly unchanged so the market seems to be in balance.  Market Structure level is negative and holding flat. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 23, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We are holding our long position. The market will be closed on Friday. The market fundamentals are unchanged and our probabilities have improved from.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 22, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  After a short downside the markets recovered with the NDX showing a small gain.  We moved to the long side.  Only thing keeping the upside momentum is the lack of enthusiasm in this market.  Not much has changed. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 21, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Volatility focused program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  All other programs 100% Money Market.  The market remains in a "small (daily) change" mode.  Small daily changes generally create calm conditions that support slow moving upward trending markets, but there are some opportunities to short in a cautious manner.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 18, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The Market and program have moved back into the normal range.  We do however have a low volatility condition that we will have to function under. Still the oil/market relationship seem to be part of the past, we will of course keep watch. Our Market Structure remains negative along with the low volatility, this should keep the market from attaining  large gains or losses.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 17, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs 100% Money market.  Back to the money market for us. Our Market Structure level remains negative and a few steps below the transition zone.  Volatility is well below the long term average and a positive influence on the market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 16, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  The Fed may have finally realized that all is not well in the economy and stopped making things worse for the time being.  We have a small positive for Thursday, but the volatility has fallen making the markets a bit harder to read but it should keep the markets floating for a while longer.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 15, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs 100% Money market.  Once again our Market Structure level has fallen further away from the transition zone. The forecast for Wednesday is only slightly positive and we remain in the money market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 14, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs 100% Money market.  Our Market Structure level has moved to within one step below the transition zone.  From here it is within striking distance of a quick swing into positive territory, but there remains a good chance that it will not happen.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 11, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Friday caught us on the wrong side.  We will continue to refrain from using leverage in this dangerous market.  The longer term outlook remains negative, higher priced oil or not. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 10, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund .    New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Volatility has fallen but remains above the blind do-not-short level where markets just tend to go higher.  The markets fell then mostly recovered on Thursday. The longer term outlook remains negative. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 9, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  All programs 100% Money market.  Our Market Structure level remains negative but has climbed closer to the transition zone. I don't think it will go positive here so for now the longer term view is negative.  Today's signal is neutral but leaning negative.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 8, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   We held our partial long position another day.  News out of China reflected a shrinking economy. Nothing much has changed regarding longer term expectations.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 7, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Monday was a rather odd day in the markets with most of the indices higher but the NDX lower. We reduced exposure on our more conservative programs.  Longer term remains negative.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 4, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   We continue to keep from using leverage as this market heals.  Our Market Structure has gone further negative.  Topping action from the past few days could lead to a quick bounce on Monday, but unless the volatility really shrinks the market trend should remain down.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 3, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs 100% Money market.  We continue to trade the programs using limited exposure.  This week turned out very well and for the past three weeks the overall market behavior has looked good.  I expect that we should be back to normal trading very soon.  The Market Structure remains negative so the near term direction should be down.  Still plenty of negatives to take it lower over the next week or two.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 2, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund .    New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Our signals were negative throughout the day but turned neutral at the close.  The NDX closed ever so slightly higher making a short term closing high which seems to be part of a topping pattern. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: March 1, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   All our programs had small gains for February.  Expect a continuation of the rally on Wednesday, which could be the top of this bounce, I do not expect the rally to carry into next week, though it could spend a few days this week topping. Our Market Structure level is negative and going lower.  The stock market has disconnected from oil as this morning the market jumped about two percent while oil was going lower.  Even though oil resumed its climb, later in the day it followed, rather than led the markets.  This disconnect is now in its third day and is good news for us.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 29, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Monday we saw a disconnect between the direction of oil prices and the stock market.  Banks were hit hard even as the price of oil jumped.  The market indexes also fell lower. This could be very good news for getting back to a normal market. All our programs are long including our long/money market program, though we are continuing to keep our exposure low.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 26, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund .    New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Our signals improved to neutral at the close.  Oil seemed to follow rather than lead the markets on Friday as oil and the markets closed lower.  There have been many times in the past where oil and the stock market moved together but I believe it was more coincidental than causative, though this recent link may be media inspired with traders following looking for the magic wand thinking that a few dollar change in the price of oil will keep banks from bad oil loans. This link will not last.  It seems that the Fed is not seeing the full picture and any improvement in earnings will cause them to crush rather than nurture this ailing economy. Our T-Index continues to show that we are in a deflationary mode.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 25, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund .    New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  The markets link to oil continues to be a difficulty for us and I am focused on resolving this new problem.  Many American people have finally had enough with a  government run by bought politicians but still don't know what to do about it.  It does appear that anything that they do will result in a less stable government at least short term. That alone should have sent the markets much lower, markets normally hate the unknown, but this group of market participants seem to be avoiding looking at the elephants.  We have held our partial short position into Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 24, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund .    New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Oil moved the markets again Wednesday, saving the markets from a large drop.  For Thursday our probabilities are very negative along with amplitudes. Our Market Structure level has climbed closer to the transition area but is still negative. The late rally has carried over into the aftermarket. We remain only partially exposed due to the current link between oil and stocks. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 23, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs 100% Money market. Our Anticipatory trend is long, but we have enough of offsetting signals to cause us to move into the money market for Wednesday. The market continues to follow oil, our long term Market Structure Level is negative and the volatility is a little elevated all making the upside less of a sure thing.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 22, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund .    New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Once again oil surged taking the markets with it. This time oil jumped over 6%.  We have held our limited short position.  Nothing else has changed.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 19, 2016

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund .    New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  The NDX recovered from an early drop to close higher despite oil falling below $30.  We are holding our partial Short position into Monday and we continue to refrain from using leverage.  The Market Structure Level has climbed this week but remains well into the negative area. Market volatility is above the long term median.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 18, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund .    New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Early on, the market decoupled from oil, but later oil followed stocks lower. We are holding our short another day and added our Retirement program to the group.  We remain only partially invested for a bit longer, but the markets do appear to be acting better.  Our probabilities are very negative and one sided.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 17, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is  100% Money market.    New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Our signals told us the markets were predisposed to go higher on Wednesday and we got extra help from a larger than 5% boost in the price of oil.  For Thursday we find ourselves on the other side of the markets. If we get downside on Thursday it could easily carry over for a few days. Our Market Structure level remains negative.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 16, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Retirement program is long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All other programs Long 50% Rydex NDX 2x funds. I have capped our exposure at 1x for the near term as the markets work their way back to normal and decouple from the recent event drivers of the past two months. The markets may have moved too far in the past two days as the NDX closed at the high of the day.  Safety of capital is always at the forefront of our methodology. Our Market Structure level remains negative and NYMEX crude remains under $30 so pressure should remain on the banks who have made loans to the hurting oil companies.  There should be more rough days ahead.  Even if Russia, Qatar, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia freeze production increases, the current level is still too high and I doubt that they will not have the fortitude to make any sizeable cuts as they need the income.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 12, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs 100% Money market. Once again we were hurt by this event driven market as the price of oil jumped over 11% on Friday.  The good news was that the oil/market link has weakened somewhat and the markets did not respond as strongly as they would have in January.  By Monday oil had continued it's romp and the futures markets continued to move higher.  I don't  believe that the downside is over just yet...... An interesting ripple in the elections is that under a certain set of conditions we may see four candidates running for the presidency in November.  Since Bloomberg has said he might run as an independent if Hillary loses to Bernie and Trump has said he might still consider running as an independent if he doesn't like the way the primaries go, so we might find from the far left Bernie Sanders, middle left Michael Bloomberg, middle right Donald Trump and far right Ted Cruz.  Enough to keep the markets stewing all year long.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 11, 2016

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  The NDX turned around from a nasty opening but missed the positive side by a tenth percent  We reversed our position at the close for Friday and have gone short.  Monday is Presidents' day and the long weekend could bring unknown terrors to the market.  I would expect traders to lighten up.  Our long term indicator remains negative.   Yellen seems to have her head in a 1950's text book where international trade was just a footnote and wages were the full cause of inflation.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 10, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   We adjusted our exposures to reflect our various programs' signals, but we remain overall long in all.  Janet Yellen reflected our calls on the markets earlier this year being event driven.  She indicated that more rate hikes would possibly come later in the year and down played the possibility of negative rates.  Our Market Structure Level became more negative, rally now, pay for it later. As anti big business as Bernie Sanders may seem he may be the best bet to get the population back to working, earning and then spending enough to help propel big business through our local economy.  There can be no healthy middle class without full employment in the blue collar neighborhoods. It is basic economics.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 9, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is   Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Even though the markets could not sustain a gain on Tuesday they performed well enough considering that oil had fallen below $29 and was lower by about 4.5%.  We have increased our exposure in some of our programs for Wednesday. Our Market Structure Level has fallen two steps giving us the expectation of extending the longer term down side direction.  Recent market action is slowly becoming more normal. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 8, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is  100% Money market.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  After seven days in the money market, missing over 5% of the NDX drop, our program is telling us the markets have started to behave in a more normal fashion.  That does not mean going higher it only means that we now have a better chance of reading it. To that end we have taken a partial long position.  The NDX has fallen 0.6% below our estimate made in our long term forecast and is also two month ahead of schedule. So either we will start getting some flat action in here or we will burst through my estimate and head much lower. Our Market Structure level remains negative so I do not expect any large upturn.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 5, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs 100% Money market. Normal market behavior would be for the market to continue to fall on Monday.  But the NDX has fallen about 6% this week and so the markets are somewhat oversold.  We remain in the Money market as we have been all week. If you like individual stocks, and I don't, take a look at LNKD. Linkedin lost over 43% today.  Could be more downside to come as they would have to take another large drop to be priced realistically relative to earnings.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 4, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs 100% Money market. The market behavior is starting to look more normal.  Although some indicators are learning positive we have more that are telling us to watch out and Friday's are not the best for going long when volatility is anything but low. Our Market Structure level fell again as expected, and there should be more downside to come.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 3, 2016

Current position for Thursday:  All programs 100% Money market. Oil popped  over 8% and helped the markets recover fully except for the NDX which could not get back to flat line.  A week ago an 8% pop in oil would have ended it a multi percent market gain, but not today. So perhaps we are seeing a bit of uncoupling and that would be good. Our Market Structure level climbed to within one step of positive but I don't think it is ready to join the plus side.  Should see a return to more normal behavior soon.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 2, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs 100% Money market. Oil dropped over 5% for the second day and is now under $30.  I have made additional progress on our Feedback loop to keep us out of the market turbulence and am pleased with the progress.  Market Structure Level remains negative and the market should work its way lower.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: February 1, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs 100% Money market. Our Feedback loop continues to warn us of abnormal market behavior and we have stayed in the money market. The market appears to be leaning lower for Tuesday, and Iowa could be influential in that direction as whatever the outcome investors may be fearful of the results.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 28, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs 100% Money market.  I have successfully run our primary  program for ten years and I have always known that it could not forecast strong news and events, (such as we have recently seen) so that over time the program can only be correct on about half of those events. The program makes its major gains by being correct much more often on those days that are not blindsided by strong news. But I missed something and have now corrected it.  What I found was that a tight group of these adverse events can set up ripples in the market's behavior that are different from normal market behavior and therefore cause the market to move in a more random manner for a few days after the events pass. This does not happen that often and only one or two surprise events generally can not cause a disruption.  It takes a longer string of them.  So I have added a feedback loop to our programs that evaluate the current state of the market as to how well the markets are adhering to normal behavior. When extreme adverse behavior occurs it signals a time to move to the money market. This problem can pass in a day or number of days and in total only represents a small portion of the trading days.  In recent years  the percentage of these unfriendly days has increased and should not be ignored.  You might compare it to the wake of a ship or turbulent air flow over a wing.  We do not want to be in the market unless we have a clear edge for making a profit so reducing those days that are just 50/50 (probability) will be very helpful in reducing draw downs.  I have added links to define the terms I have been using in these posts (left side of page).  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 28, 2016

Current position for Friday:  All programs 100% Money market.  Wednesday night it was FB up >13% in the aftermarket today it is AMZN down <-13% after the close. Oil jumped about 2.5% during the day supporting the FB rally.  Though more volatile markets are easier to read this month's string of events has been near non stop so I am moving into the money market for a day or so joining our long only program on the sidelines.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 27, 2016

Current position for Thursday:   Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  Long/money market program is  100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex inverse S&P 500 1x fund.  New Volatility focused program is Short: 75% Rydex inverse S&P 500 2x fund.   Investors must have been waiting for the FED to back down on their call to raise interest rates a number of times this year because they dumped stocks when the FED only held steady.  FB screamed higher (about +13%)  after the close on unexpected great earnings and that could disrupt our expected down side party, especially in the NDX.  The market also remains tightly connected to oil. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 26, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:   Primary program Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  S&P 500 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.   This market is very much tied to the price of oil, mostly because the recent price of oil has been so volatile.  Tuesday's market turned from being down 1% during the night to being up almost 1.5% during the day.  Our long/money market program woke up after spending the past two weeks in the money market, now looking for another up day.   AAPL Iphone sales were relatively flat for the quarter compared to a year ago, but the Iphone 7 should help them next first quarter if AAPL sticks to it's previous upgrade schedule.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 25, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:   Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  Long/money market program is  100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex inverse S&P 500 1x fund.  New Volatility focused program is Short: 75% Rydex inverse S&P 500 2x fund.   The Monday drop should continue into Tuesday and we are holding our short positions.  The probabilities continue to favor the down side. The Market Structure Level remains negative and our anticipatory trend also supports the downside case.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 22, 2016

Current position for Monday:   Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  Long/money market program is  100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex inverse S&P 500 1x fund.  New Volatility focused program is Short: 75% Rydex inverse S&P 500 2x fund.   We increased our exposure to the downside for Monday. Thursday night oil climbed over 7% which sent the markets much higher on Friday. We can't forecast the news or events. Over time we are on the correct side of events about 50% of the time.  What we can do, and we do it very well, is forecast the market movement in the space or time in-between the events.  For the past three weeks we were on the wrong side of four "large events" and were in the money market most of the other time. We never know when these events will occur or stop occurring, we do know that over time they do not play a significant roll in our overall returns since they generally cancel themselves out. We also know that these events tend to increase the volatility and that improves our market visibility.  Probabilities are strong to the down side for Monday and we have positioned our selves in line with our signals.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 21, 2016

Current position for Friday:   Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  Long/money market program is  100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P 500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex inverse S&P 500 1x fund.  New Volatility focused program is Short: 37.5% Rydex inverse S&P 500 2x fund.   We are holding all our positions for Friday.  We remain partially short and nothing significant has happened to change that viewpoint.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 20, 2016

Current position for Thursday:   Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  Long/money market program is  100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P 500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex inverse S&P 500 1x fund.  New Volatility focused program is Short: 37.5% Rydex inverse S&P 500 2x fund.   It took a while but the short side of our program has kicked in.  Our primary program was in the money market for the past week and a half avoiding a good portion of the down side.  All programs with the exception of our long/money market program have gone partially short.  Market Structure remains negative. Anticipatory trend is negative. Crude continues its slide and with Iran now on line I would not expect to see that much improvement on the oil front. But this is good news for the consumer and should help keep the rest of the US economy moving slowly ahead, but not enough to keep the multinationals from having a revenue decline. The multinationals will cut some jobs to compensate. The market volatility is high now and this is bad for the buy and hold crowd as high volatility in itself make people afraid to buy and more likely to sell.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 19, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs 100% Money market.  This sharp downward thrust should turn into a more shallow dive. Our Market Structure level continues to fall and the markets should continue to struggle as the level once again begins to climb.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 15, 20156

Current position for Tuesday:  New Volatility focused program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 500 1x fund.  All other programs 100% Money market.  The current market is very much oversold as our bottom signal was triggered for the third time in six days.  On the opposite side we triggered a longer term sell signal on Thursday's close.  Our Long only, Retirement and Primary programs were out of this market all week.  (note: I accidentally cut and pasted a prior heading which showed the Primary program long 37.5% part of the week, it was actually in the money market).  All other programs were correctly posted.  Going forward there may be some more deviations in direction between the primary and hot money program as I adjust risk levels.  Currently I am focusing on our Volatility based program.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 14, 2016

Current position for Friday:   Primary program 100% Money market*^corrected.  Long/money market program is  100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market   New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.   Our Market Structure level has fallen into negative territory this should be bad news for the buy-and-hold crowd. Unless volatility returns to the small (daily) change mode that was prevalent over the past few years the market will suffer.  I was aware that this could occur but major down trends don't happen often, and now probabilities are high that the wolf is at the door and will remain for awhile. This means that more money will be made by shorting the markets rather than going long. We remain partially long for Friday but I expect that we will have many more "short" signals going forward.  I have posted a new long term forecast today to reflect the change in market psychology.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 13, 2016

Current position for Thursday:   Primary program 100% Money market*^corrected.  Long/money market program is  100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market   New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.   Both risk and reward  are relative to market "exposure" for both traders and long term investors.  Over the past month 12/14/2015 -1/13/2016 the NDX has fallen -8.5%, our only partially-exposed Retirement program also fell, but only -2.2%.  This is the benefit of lower exposure when the market is not behaving.  Our programs do not follow lock step with the markets, but sometimes we too can get caught in a downturn, but usually not for a very long time, due to the nature of our programs.  (Retirement program 2015 return +22.5%).  

For Wednesday early market gains evaporated when the government's oil inventory data was released showing continued growth in supplies, from there things got worse into the close.  We do not have a strong signal for Thursday, but a second bottom signal was flashed ( the first was on Friday three trading days ago.) this usually tells we are at or near an intermediate term bottom.   We are holding our partial long position.  Our Market Structure level fell another step and is close to going negative. If it does turn negative along with medium to high volatility if would suggest a change in the market psychology to that of a bear market. This can happen even if the market shows a short term recovery over the next few days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 12, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:   Primary program 100% Money market*^corrected.  Long/money market program is  100% Money market.  Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market   New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.   Our signal became more positive as more of our programs have gone long.  Our Market Structure level has fallen further into the transition zone and we should know within a few days if the market will recover or go seriously lower.  

On another note Apple's next big product: Apple is in a perfect position to enter another billion dollar market.... hearing aids. With our aging population and the familiarity of Apple products, and Apple's love for high profits hearing aids are the perfect fit.  Moreover they can be tied into Apples existing product line.  The smart devices can be adjusted by an Apple app, play music from the I phone, link to the I-phone or I-watch or I-tablet as well as Apple TV.   Also Apple has the power to bypass the hurdles that government regulation have set up in almost every country in the world.  Audiologist have a monopoly on hearing aid sales and sell a $2000 hearing aid bundled with a $3,000. Service package.  Apple has the clout to build a better more robust hearing aid that can be user adjusted, work perfectly on the phone and surpass anything on the market, and Apple also has the clout to make it happen, maybe by 2017.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

 Comments: January 11, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  All other programs 100% Money market.   Our Market Structure level has fallen to the top of the transition zone.  This can lead to a rapid deterioration and quickly slide into the negative zone, but most of the time it does not go negative and instead climbs back into the positive zone.  Since we triggered our bottom indicator on Friday the most likely expectation would be a recovery.  The market is still dangerous with no bounce yet from China or Europe. Oil has continued to fall reaching the $31 area on Monday and volatility has moved slightly above the median market and high enough where more negative market moves are seen.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 8, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs 100% Money market.  The markets performed a replay of the August drop.  This week our programs were hit very hard even though we were only in the market three days, still 4 out of our 5 programs managed to outperform (lose less than) the NDX.  Over the past week the Nasdaq 100 lost 7% of its value.  On Friday our Bottom indicator registered that it was near a bottom as it did on September 29 2015 with the NDX at 4083.37 which was the bottom at that time. Prior to that we had a bottom signal on October 14 2014 with the NDX at 3810.45, the actual bottom occurred two days later about 1.2% lower.  Sometimes there would be a test of the bottom about two to three weeks later. So from this we might expect a bounce early next week, but could not rule out further downside on a retest.  Probabilities are looking negative for Monday.  Still the overall technical conditions from our point of view remain positive. I consider having a string of three incorrect long signals in a row rare with an occurrence rate of about once every two years. We see it more often under sub normal volatility conditions and less often as the volatility increases ,which is a good thing as the volatility generally increases as markets decline.  This past week the volatility was below the median, but reached the median on Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 7, 2016

Current position for Friday:   Primary program Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  S&P 500 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long:100% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.   Our programs seek to find the market's predisposed direction for the following day for days without major outside influences (as we can't forecast news events).  News events cut both ways and sometimes we get battered about for a while, but with statistics on our side we have won the battle over the past ten years.  Wednesday night trading was suspended in China's Shanghai index for the second day this week and oil fell, once again, over 4%.  Major negative news has a major negative effect on our markets, and our programs suffered a back to back loss.  But aside from these outside influences our stance remains positive. Our Market Structure level is positive and our signals are positive.  Volatility is below mid range and I continue to look for an up-tick in the markets. If we find that the volatility reaches a dangerous level, or the Market Structure level turns negative then I will change my opinion on the overall market direction.   In any case I will stay in sync with our statistical model and follow our signals.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 6, 2016

Current position for Thursday:   Primary program Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  S&P 500 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long:100% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.   Our programs all remain long, but since they do not all use the same algorithms, we have increased our exposure in our Volatility program and decreased our exposure with our Primary and Hot money programs.  Before the markets opened on Wednesday the Yuan had been devalued, oil had plunged over 4% and North Korea had tested another H bomb, the bad start was too much for a recovery. Thursday will probably be more positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 5, 2016

Current position for Wednesday:   Primary program Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Long/money market program is  Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex  S&P 500 1x fund.   New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.   Looks like the market has found a foot hold here and is ready to climb higher.  Our signals are all very positive but it is never a lock. The NDX has dropped four days in a row and our Market Structure has taken a step down, this should give traders a chance to trade for a bounce. Assuming it goes well, the size and duration could vary widely so we must step along and be ready to move to the sidelines or go short as necessary.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 4, 2016

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs 100% Money market.  The sharp drop on Monday could easily cause a rebound on Tuesday but our signals remain flat.  Our Market Structure climbed another step and now is only a step from the top and sufficiently high enough to start coming back down.  This should result in providing the market with another push higher.  Volatility improved which should be a plus for our programs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 3, 2016

Current position for Monday:  All programs 100% Money market.  We moved all programs into the money market.  A new long term forecast will be posted during the next two weeks.  Our continuous market studies during 2015 led to stronger programs. The small increase in volatility we saw in the second half of the year supported the theory and was enough to produce  exception results.  I am looking forward to continued success during 2016 as election years tend to create more volatile markets.  Our Market Structure level climbed a step on the last day of the year and should be in a high enough position to support more upside during January.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

For earlier comments made in 2015 

For earlier comments made in 2014 

For earlier comments made in 2013